Scaling up antiretroviral therapy for HIV-infected children in Côte d'Ivoire: determinants of survival and loss to programme

OBJECTIVE

To investigate deaths and losses to follow-up in a programme designed to scale up antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV-infected children in Côte d'Ivoire.

METHODS

Between 2004 and 2007, HIV-exposed children at 19 centres were offered free HIV serum tests (polymerase chain reaction tests in those aged < 18 months) and ART. Computerized monitoring was used to determine: (i) the number of confirmed HIV infections, (ii) losses to the programme (i.e. death or loss to follow-up) before ART, (iii) mortality and loss-to-programme rates during 12 months of ART, and (iv) determinants of mortality and losses to the programme.

FINDINGS

The analysis included 3876 ART-naïve children. Of the 1766 with HIV-1 infections (17% aged < 18 months), 124 (7.0%) died, 52 (2.9%) left the programme, 354 (20%) were lost to follow-up before ART, 259 (15%) remained in care without ART, and 977 (55%) started ART (median age: 63 months). The overall mortality rate during ART was significantly higher in the first 3 months than in months 4-12: 32.8 and 6.9 per 100 child-years of follow-up, respectively. Loss-to-programme rates were roughly double mortality rates and followed the same trend with duration of ART. Independent predictors of 12-month mortality on ART were pre-ART weight-for-age z-score < -2, percentage of CD4+ T lymphocytes < 10, World Health Organization HIV/AIDS clinical stage 3 or 4, and blood haemoglobin < 8 g/dl.

CONCLUSION

The large-scale programme to scale up paediatric ART in Côte d'Ivoire was effective. However, ART was often given too late, and early mortality and losses to programme before and just after ART initiation were major problems.

CD4+ T-lymphocytes natural decrease in HAART-naïve HIV-infected adults in Abidjan

OBJECTIVE

To study the CD4 natural decrease and its determinants in sub-Saharan African HIV-infected adults.

METHOD

We performed a 7-year prospective cohort study, with biannual CD4 measurement. Follow-up was censored at the first severe morbidity event or at HAART initiation. Changes in CD4 values were studied by jointly modelling (a) the correlation between repeated measures through a linear mixed model and (b) the time to drop-out through a survival model.

RESULTS

690 patients were followed up during 1,382 person-years. Contrasting with the baseline CD4 count and percentage, which were associated with numerous variables, the slopes of both CD4 count and CD4 percentage in the absence of severe morbidity episode were only associated with the follow-up time and with the baseline body mass index (BMI). The mean annual natural decrease in CD4 count (CD4%) was estimated at -81/mm3 (-2.2%), -69/mm3 (-1.7%), and -55/mm3 (-1.2%) for patients with baseline BMI at 16 kg/m2, 20.4 kg/m2, and 25 kg/m2, respectively (p < .001). A steeper decline in the CD4 count was independently associated with a shorter event-free follow-up time.

CONCLUSION

These estimates of the CD4 natural decrease in sub-Saharan African patients, while they did not experience any episode of severe morbidity and before they initiate HAART, are in the bracket of those previously reported in industrialized countries. In sub-Saharan African settings with CD4 count being measured less frequently than in industrialized countries, the CD4 should be monitored more closely among adults with low BMI.