Scenario analysis of carbon emissions' anti-driving effect on Qingdao's energy structure adjustment with an optimization model, Part II: Energy system planning and management

In this study, an inexact multistage stochastic mixed-integer programming (IMSMP) method was developed for supporting regional-scale energy system planning (EPS) associated with multiple uncertainties presented as discrete intervals, probability distributions and their combinations. An IMSMP-based energy system planning (IMSMP-ESP) model was formulated for Qingdao to demonstrate its applicability. Solutions which can provide optimal patterns of energy resources generation, conversion, transmission, allocation and facility capacity expansion schemes have been obtained. The results can help local decision makers generate cost-effective energy system management schemes and gain a comprehensive tradeoff between economic objectives and environmental requirements. Moreover, taking the CO₂ emissions scenarios mentioned in Part I into consideration, the anti-driving effect of carbon emissions on energy structure adjustment was studied based on the developed model and scenario analysis. Several suggestions can be concluded from the results: (a) to ensure the smooth realization of low-carbon and sustainable development, appropriate price control and fiscal subsidy on high-cost energy resources should be considered by the decision-makers; (b) compared with coal, natural gas utilization should be strongly encouraged in order to insure that Qingdao could reach the carbon discharges peak value in 2020; (c) to guarantee Qingdao's power supply security in the future, the construction of new power plants should be emphasised instead of enhancing the transmission capacity of grid infrastructure.

Correlation analysis on total lymphocyte count and CD4 count of HIV-infected patients

OBJECTIVE

To determine the relationship between CD4 count and other blood indices and to explore the prediction of total lymphocyte count (TLC) for CD4 count in HIV-infected patients.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study was performed for the prediction of TLC and other indices for CD4 count, and historical cohort study was performed for the TLC changes as a surrogate for CD4 changes of patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) to further understanding the utility of TLC changes for AIDS patients' management.

RESULTS

In our cross-sectional study, both TLC and white blood corpuscle count positively correlated to CD4 count, but differed in these patients. For patients on ART, the prediction of TLC for CD4 count is better than that of patient without ART. Further investigation of historical cohort study indicated that, among AIDS patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy, their TLC and haemoglobin changes also positively correlated to CD4 change, with a total correlation coefficient of 0.31 (p < 0.01) and 0.19 (p < 0.01) respectively. The prediction of TLC change for CD4 change differed each time point when patients underwent ART.

CONCLUSIONS

Total lymphocyte count and its change can be used as alternative in conjunction with other indices to CD4 count and its change in the management of HIV-infected individuals in China.

[Random amplified polymorphic DNA analysis of Cryptosporidium species and strains]

OBJECTIVE

To analyse the genetic heterogeneity of 8 isolates of Cryptosporidium belonging to three species (Cryptosporiduim muris, Cryptosporiduim parvum and Cryptosporidium meleagridis) using RAPD technique.

METHODS

DNA extracts of the 8 isolates were amplified by PCR using 26 out of 200 primers. The amplified products were separated by agar electrophoresis followed by staining with ethidium bromide.

RESULTS

RAPD analysis revealed; 1. Obvious differences among species were found, the average genetic distance being 7.037; 2. Certain differences among different isolates of the same species were found, the average genetic distance being 5.162.

CONCLUSION

RAPD could differentiate the common and respective gene fragments of the 8 isolates of Cryptosporidium.