History Repeats Itself: The Relevance of Historical Pandemics to the Medical School Curriculum

Introduction

The dramatic global impact of the coronavirus pandemic has increased consideration on epidemiological progressions of pandemics. Measures implemented to reduce viral transmission have been largely historical, comparable in nature with the 1918 and 2009 influenza pandemics, demonstrating the importance of clinicians' awareness on historical pandemics. Despite this, literature suggests medical students' knowledge on previous pandemics is poor.

Objectives

This study aims to gather stakeholder information from UK medical students on the importance of including the history of pandemics in the medical school curriculum.

Methods

A cross-sectional cohort study conducted via a mixed question type online survey was distributed to all UK medical schools to explore stakeholder views. Grounded theory emergent coding was used to generate themes to free-text answers and SPSS and Excel were used to analyse quantitative data using pivot tables and Fishers exact tests.

Results

Two hundred and forty-one students consented to take part from eight medical schools in the UK with 98% of these students completing the questionnaire. 34% of students reported having teaching on pandemics with 78% of students stating it would be beneficial. Knowledge was poor with 5.7% of students achieving 100% on knowledge-based questions. 72% of students believed that learning about the history of medicine would be beneficial with 87% of these students referring to 'benefiting (the) future' in their answers. Additionally, 79% of students thought it would be beneficial to learn about historical pandemics with reference to the current COVID-19 pandemic.

Conclusion

To date, this is the only UK based study assessing stakeholders' views on including the history of pandemics in the medical school curriculum. Our findings demonstrate that medical students wish to have more historical content included in their degree to better prepare tomorrow's doctors for situations that may occur when history repeats itself.

P-436 EndoTime: Non-categorical timing estimates for luteal endometrium

Study question

Can expression measurements of a small panel of genes be used to develop a continuous, non-categorical model for the improvement of endometrial biopsy timing accuracy?

Summary answer

Measuring expression levels of six genes (IL2RB, IGFBP1, CXCL14, DPP4, GPX3, and SLC15A2) is sufficient to obtain and assess substantially more accurate timing estimates.

What is known already

Commercially available endometrial timing approaches based on gene expression require much larger gene sets and use a categorical approach that classifies samples as pre-receptive, receptive, or post-receptive.

Study design, size, duration

Gene expression was measured by RT-qPCR in different sample sets, comprising a total of 664 endometrial biopsies obtained 4 to 12 days after a self-reported positive home ovulation test. A further 36 endometrial samples were profiled by RT-qPCR as well as RNA-sequencing.

Participants/materials, setting, methods

A computational procedure, named ‘EndoTime’, was established that models the temporal profile of each gene and estimates the timing of each sample. Iterating these steps, temporal profiles are gradually refined as sample timings are being updated, and confidence in timing estimates is increased. After convergence, the method reports updated timing estimates for each sample while preserving the overall distribution of time points.

Main results and the role of chance

The Wilcoxon rank-sum test was used to confirm that ordering samples by EndoTime estimates yields sharper temporal expression profiles for held-out genes (not used when determining sample timings) than ordering the same expression values by patient-reported times (GPX3 : p < 0.005; CXCL14 : p < 2.7e-6; DPP4 : p < 3.7e-13). Pearson correlation between EndoTime estimates for the same sample set but based on RT-qPCR or RNA-sequencing data showed high degree of congruency between the two (p = 8.6e-10, R-squared = 0.687). Estimated timings did not differ significantly between control subjects and patients with recurrent pregnancy loss or recurrent implantation failure (p > 0.05).

Limitations, reasons for caution

Timing estimates are informed by glandular gene expression and will only represent the temporal state of other endometrial cell types if in synchrony with the epithelium. Additionally, methods that estimate the day of ovulation are still required as these data are essential inputs in our method.

Wider implications of the findings

Our method is the first to assay the temporal state of endometrial samples on a continuous domain, enabling accurate temporal profiling of any gene in luteal phase biopsies for a wide range of research applications and, potentially, clinical use. It is freely available, open-source software including supporting data sets.

Trial registration number

Not applicable

Developing a simplified clinical prediction score for mortality in patients with cerebral gunshot wounds: The Maritzburg Score

Introduction Cerebral gunshot wounds are highly lethal and literature on the clinical scores for mortality prediction is limited. Materials and methods A retrospective study was undertaken over a 5-year period at the Pietermaritzburg Metropolitan Trauma Service in South Africa. A simplified clinical prediction score was developed based on clinical and/or physiological variables readily available in the resuscitation room. Results A total of 102 patients were included; 92% (94/102) were male and the mean age was 29 years; 22% (22/102) died during the admission. The presence of visible brain matter (odds ratio 12.4, P = 0.003) and motor score less than 5 (odds ratio 89.6, P  < 0.001) allows the prediction success of 92% (sensitivity 73% and specificity 98%). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 94% (95% confidence interval 88-100%, P  < 0.001). Conclusions The presence of visible brain matter, together with a motor score of less than 5, allows accurate identification of non-survivors of cerebral gunshot wounds. Further study is required to validate this score.

The effect of stage of HIV disease as determined by CD4 count on clinical outcomes of surgical sepsis in South Africa

INTRODUCTION This paper reviews the impact of the stage of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease on the outcome of surgical sepsis. METHODS All adult emergency general surgical patients (aged >15 years) who fulfilled the criteria for sepsis or septic shock, with a documented surgical source of infection, and who were HIV positive were reviewed. RESULTS During the 5-year study period, a total of 675 patients with a documented surgical source of sepsis were managed by our service; 142 (21%) of these were HIV positive. Among the individuals who were HIV positive, the CD4 count was <200 cells/µl in 21 patients and ≥200 cells/µl in 121 patients. There was no difference between these two cohorts in terms of demography or spectrum of surgical conditions. The range of surgical procedures and complications was also similar in both groups. Nevertheless, patients with a CD count of <200 cells/µl had a significantly longer length of hospital stay than those in the cohort with ≥200 cells/µl. For HIV positive patients with a CD4 count of <200 cells/µl, the mortality rate was 66.7% (14/21) while the mortality rate for individuals with HIV and a CD4 count of ≥200 cells/µl was 2.5% (2/121). This difference was statistically significant (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS The clinical presentation and spectrum of surgical sepsis disease in cases with stage 1 and stage 2 HIV is not markedly different. However, in patients with a CD4 count of <200 cells/µl, the length of hospital stay and mortality is significantly higher. Stage of HIV disease must be considered when stratifying patients' risk for surgery.

Civilian cerebral gunshot wounds in rural South African patients are associated with significantly higher mortality rates than in urban patients

INTRODUCTION

This study focuses on a specific and often dramatic injury, namely gunshot wounds (GSW) of the head in order to determine whether there is a discrepancy in outcome between patients who sustain their injury in a rural setting and those who sustain it in an urban setting.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This study involves a retrospective review of our prospectively maintained regional electronic trauma registry. All patients who sustained a cerebral GSW from January 2010 to December 2014 were reviewed.

RESULTS

During the 5-year study period, a total of 102 patients sustained an isolated cerebral GSW. Ninety-two per cent (94/102) were male and the mean age was 29 years. Ninety-four per cent (94/102) of injuries were related to interpersonal violence. Of the 102 patients in the study, 54% (55/102) were urban and were transported directly to our trauma centre. The remaining 46% (47/102) were rural and were transported to a rural district hospital prior to being referred to our trauma centre. The time of injury was available in 60% (61/102) of patients. The mean time from injury to arrival for all patients was 11 h (SD 7). The mean time from injury to arrival was significantly shorter for urban versus rural, 6 h (SD 5) and 15 h (SD 5), respectively (p < 0.001). The median admission GCS score was significantly lower in rural compared to urban patients (p = 0.022). The need for neurosurgery, need for ICU admission or length of hospital stay was not significantly different between rural and urban patients. Rural patients have a fourfold higher mortality compared with urban patients (36 vs 9%, p = 0.001). Amongst survivors, there was no significant difference in median length of hospital stay or mean discharge GCS.

CONCLUSIONS

Cerebral GSWs are highly lethal injuries associated with significant mortality. Rural patients have a significantly longer transfer time, lower GCS on arrival and higher mortality than urban patients. Efforts should be directed at improving the pre-hospital EMS system in order to reduce delay to definitive care so that patient outcome can be optimised.

Mechanical complications of central venous catheterisation in trauma patients

INTRODUCTION Central venous catheterisation (CVC) is a commonly performed procedure in a wide variety of hospital settings and is associated with appreciable morbidity. There is a paucity of literature focusing on mechanical complications specifically in the trauma setting. The aim of our study was to determine the spectrum of mechanical complications in a high-volume trauma centre in a developing world setting where ultrasound guidance was not available. METHODS A retrospective study was performed analysing data from a four-year period at the Pietermaritzburg Metropolitan Trauma Service in South Africa. RESULTS A total of 178 mechanical complications (18%) occurred in 1,015 patients undergoing CVC: 117 pneumothoraces, 25 malpositions, 18 catheter dislodgements, 14 arterial cannulations, one air embolism, one chylothorax, one pleural cannulation and one retained guide-wire. The internal jugular vein (IJV) approach was associated with a higher overall complication rate than the subclavian vein (SCV) approach (24% vs. 13%, p<0.001). Pneumothorax (73% vs. 57%, p<0.001) and arterial cannulation (15% vs. 0%, p<0.001) were more common with the IJV. Catheter dislodgement (21% vs. 0%, p<0.001) was more common with the SCV. Junior doctors performed 66% of the CVCs and this was associated with a significantly higher complication rate (20% vs. 12%, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS CVC carries appreciable morbidity, with pneumothorax being the most frequent mechanical complication. The SCV was the most commonly used approach at our institution. The majority of CVCs were performed by junior doctors and this was associated with a considerable complication rate.