Detection of asymptomatic carotid stenosis in patients with lower-extremity arterial disease: development and external validations of a risk score

BACKGROUND

Recommendations for screening patients with lower-extremity arterial disease (LEAD) to detect asymptomatic carotid stenosis (ACS) are conflicting. Prediction models might identify patients at high risk of ACS, possibly allowing targeted screening to improve preventive therapy and compliance.

METHODS

A systematic search for prediction models for at least 50 per cent ACS in patients with LEAD was conducted. A prediction model in screened patients from the USA with an ankle : brachial pressure index of 0.9 or less was subsequently developed, and assessed for discrimination and calibration. External validation was performed in two independent cohorts, from the UK and the Netherlands.

RESULTS

After screening 4907 studies, no previously published prediction models were found. For development of a new model, data for 112 117 patients were used, of whom 6354 (5.7 per cent) had at least 50 per cent ACS and 2801 (2.5 per cent) had at least 70 per cent ACS. Age, sex, smoking status, history of hypercholesterolaemia, stroke/transient ischaemic attack, coronary heart disease and measured systolic BP were predictors of ACS. The model discrimination had an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of 0.71 (95 per cent c.i. 0.71 to 0.72) for at least 50 per cent ACS and 0.73 (0.72 to 0.73) for at least 70 per cent ACS. Screening the 20 per cent of patients at greatest risk detected 12.4 per cent with at least 50 per cent ACS (number needed to screen (NNS) 8] and 5.8 per cent with at least 70 per cent ACS (NNS 17). This yielded 44.2 and 46.9 per cent of patients with at least 50 and 70 per cent ACS respectively. External validation showed reliable discrimination and adequate calibration.

CONCLUSION

The present risk score can predict significant ACS in patients with LEAD. This approach may inform targeted screening of high-risk individuals to enhance the detection of ACS.

Timing of procedural stroke and death in asymptomatic patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy: individual patient analysis from four RCTs

BACKGROUND

The effectiveness of carotid endarterectomy (CEA) for stroke prevention depends on low procedural risks. The aim of this study was to assess the frequency and timing of procedural complications after CEA, which may clarify underlying mechanisms and help inform safe discharge policies.

METHODS

Individual-patient data were obtained from four large carotid intervention trials (VACS, ACAS, ACST-1 and GALA; 1983-2007). Patients undergoing CEA for asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis directly after randomization were used for the present analysis. Timing of procedural death and stroke was divided into intraoperative day 0, postoperative day 0, days 1-3 and days 4-30.

RESULTS

Some 3694 patients were included in the analysis. A total of 103 patients (2·8 per cent) had serious procedural complications (18 fatal strokes, 68 non-fatal strokes, 11 fatal myocardial infarctions and 6 deaths from other causes) [Correction added on 20 April, after first online publication: the percentage value has been corrected to 2·8]. Of the 86 strokes, 67 (78 per cent) were ipsilateral, 17 (20 per cent) were contralateral and two (2 per cent) were vertebrobasilar. Forty-five strokes (52 per cent) were ischaemic, nine (10 per cent) haemorrhagic, and stroke subtype was not determined in 32 patients (37 per cent). Half of the strokes happened on the day of CEA. Of all serious complications recorded, 44 (42·7 per cent) occurred on day 0 (20 intraoperative, 17 postoperative, 7 with unclear timing), 23 (22·3 per cent) on days 1-3 and 36 (35·0 per cent) on days 4-30.

CONCLUSION

At least half of the procedural strokes in this study were ischaemic and ipsilateral to the treated artery. Half of all procedural complications occurred on the day of surgery, but one-third after day 3 when many patients had been discharged.

P3714Cerebral blood flow and cognitive functioning in the heart-brain axis

Background

Recent studies suggest that cardiovascular disease and dementia are closely related, which led to the concept of a “heart-brain axis”. Dysfunction in any component of the heart-brain axis could be a risk factor for the development of brain damage and consequently to the development of cognitive impairment. In the Heart-Brain study, we focus on vascular cognitive impairment (VCI), symptomatic carotid occlusive disease (COD) and heart failure (HF) as three extreme phenotypes of haemodynamic dysfunction in different components of the heart-brain axis (i.e. heart – carotids – brain). We compared values of cerebral blood flow (CBF), measured with arterial spin labeling (ASL) between patients with HF, COD and VCI and investigated the association between CBF and cognitive functioning.

Methods

We included 442 participants (129 VCI; 75 COD; 124 HF; and 114 controls) from the Heart-Brain Study (67±9 yrs; 38% F; MMSE 28±2). We used 3T pseudo-continuous ASL to estimate whole-brain and regional partial volume-corrected CBF. Using a standardized neuropsychological assessment, we measured global cognitive functioning and four cognitive domains. Compound z-scores were constructed for each cognitive domain. We investigated associations using linear regression analyses, adjusted for age, sex, education, center and diagnosis. Subsequently, we stratified for diagnosis.

Results

Whole-brain and regional CBF values were lowest in patients with COD, followed by VCI and HF, compared to controls. Global cognitive functioning was lowest in patients with VCI, followed by COD and HF, compared to controls. Overall, we found hardly any association between whole-brain or regional CBF values and cognitive functioning (standardized beta [stb] = 0.00–0.10, p>0.05). Subsequent stratification for diagnosis showed no association between whole-brain or regional CBF and cognitive functioning in any participant group.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that reduced CBF is not the major explanatory factor underlying impaired cognitive functioning in patients with disorders along the heart-brain axis. The predisposition of cognitive impairment in these patients is likely to be driven by other (haemodynamic) mechanisms than CBF.

Acknowledgement/Funding

We acknowledge the support of the Netherlands CardioVascular Research Initiative: the Dutch Heart Foundation (CVON 2012-06 Heart Brain Connection), Du

Higher risk of intracranial aneurysms and subarachnoid haemorrhage in siblings of families with intracranial aneurysms

Introduction

First-degree relatives of patients with familial aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage have an increased risk of unruptured intracranial aneurysms and aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage. We assessed whether the type of kinship of first-degree relatives of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage patients influences this risk.

Patients and methods

We used all available data from the prospectively collected database of families consulting our outpatient clinic between 1994-2016. We constructed pedigrees for all families with ≥2 first-degree relatives with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage or unruptured intracranial aneurysms. The proband was defined as the first family member with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage who sought medical attention. We compared both the proportion of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage and unruptured intracranial aneurysms in proband's first-degree relatives by calculating relative risks (RR) with children as the reference.

Results

We studied 154 families with 1,105 first-degree relatives of whom 146 had aneurysmalsubarachnoid hemorrhage. Unruptured intracranial aneurysms were identified in 63 (19%) of the 326 screened relatives. Siblings had a higher risk of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (RR:1.62, 95% CI:1.12–2.38) and parents a lower risk (RR:0.44, 95% CI:0.24–0.81) than children. Siblings also had a higher risk of unruptured intracranial aneurysms (RR:2.28, 95% CI:1.23–4.07, age-adjusted RR:2.04, 95% CI:1.07–3.92) than children.

Conclusion: Siblings of patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage have a significanthigher risk of both unruptured intracranial aneurysms and aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage and parents have a lower risk of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage than children.

Discussion: Type of kinship is a relevant factor to consider in risk prediction and screening advice in families with familial aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage.

Prediction models for intracranial hemorrhage or major bleeding in patients on antiplatelet therapy: a systematic review and external validation study

ESSENTIALS: Prediction models may help to identify patients at high risk of bleeding on antiplatelet therapy. We identified existing prediction models for bleeding and validated them in patients with cerebral ischemia. Five prediction models were identified, all of which had some methodological shortcomings. Performance in patients with cerebral ischemia was poor.

SUMMARY

Background Antiplatelet therapy is widely used in secondary prevention after a transient ischemic attack (TIA) or ischemic stroke. Bleeding is the main adverse effect of antiplatelet therapy and is potentially life threatening. Identification of patients at increased risk of bleeding may help target antiplatelet therapy.

OBJECTIVE

This study sought to identify existing prediction models for intracranial hemorrhage or major bleeding in patients on antiplatelet therapy and evaluate their performance in patients with cerebral ischemia.

METHODS

We systematically searched PubMed and Embase for existing prediction models up to December 2014. The methodological quality of the included studies was assessed with the CHARMS checklist. Prediction models were externally validated in the European Stroke Prevention Study 2, comprising 6602 patients with a TIA or ischemic stroke. We assessed discrimination and calibration of included prediction models.

RESULTS

Five prediction models were identified, of which two were developed in patients with previous cerebral ischemia. Three studies assessed major bleeding, one studied intracerebral hemorrhage and one gastrointestinal bleeding. None of the studies met all criteria of good quality. External validation showed poor discriminative performance, with c-statistics ranging from 0.53 to 0.64 and poor calibration.

CONCLUSION

A limited number of prediction models is available that predict intracranial hemorrhage or major bleeding in patients on antiplatelet therapy. The methodological quality of the models varied, but was generally low. Predictive performance in patients with cerebral ischemia was poor. In order to reliably predict the risk of bleeding in patients with cerebral ischemia, development of a prediction model according to current methodological standards is needed.

Cost-effectiveness of a nurse-led internet-based vascular risk factor management programme: economic evaluation alongside a randomised controlled clinical trial

OBJECTIVE

To assess the cost-effectiveness of an internet-based, nurse-led vascular risk factor management programme in addition to usual care compared with usual care alone in patients with a clinical manifestation of a vascular disease.

DESIGN

Cost-effectiveness analysis alongside a randomised controlled trial (the Internet-based vascular Risk factor Intervention and Self-management (IRIS) study).

SETTING

Multicentre trial in a secondary and tertiary healthcare setting.

PARTICIPANTS

330 patients with a recent clinical manifestation of atherosclerosis in the coronary, cerebral, or peripheral arteries and with ≥2 treatable vascular risk factors not at goal.

INTERVENTION

The intervention consisted of a personalised website with an overview and actual status of patients' vascular risk factors, and mail communication with a nurse practitioner via the website for 12 months. The intervention combined self-management support, monitoring of disease control and pharmacotherapy.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Societal costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS

Patients experienced equal health benefits, that is, 0.86 vs 0.85 QALY (intervention vs usual care) at 1 year. Adjusting for baseline differences, the incremental QALY difference was -0.014 (95% CI -0.034 to 0.007). The intervention was associated with lower total costs (€4859 vs €5078, difference €219, 95% CI -€2301 to €1825). The probability that the intervention is cost-effective at a threshold value of €20,000/QALY, is 65%. At mean annual cost of €220 per patient, the intervention is relatively cheap.

CONCLUSIONS

An internet-based, nurse-led intervention in addition to usual care to improve vascular risk factors in patients with a clinical manifestation of a vascular disease does not result in a QALY gain at 1 year, but has a small effect on vascular risk factors and is associated with lower costs.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT00785031.

Antioxidants as a treatment for acute pancreatitis: A meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To assess the efficacy of antioxidants in acute (AP) pancreatitis.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane library for all randomized controlled trials (RCT) involving administration of antioxidants in the therapy of AP until February 2012. AP studies were pooled to analyze the effect of antioxidants on hospital stay, mortality, and complications. Subgroup analyses were performed on the use of the antioxidant glutamine.

RESULTS

In total, eleven RCTs were included. Among patients with AP, antioxidant therapy resulted in a borderline significant reduction in hospital stay (mean difference -1.74; 95%CI -3.56 to 0.08), a significant decrease in complications (RR 0.66; 95%CI 0.46-0.95) and a non-significant decrease in mortality rate (RR 0.66; 95%CI 0.30-1.46). Subgroup analyses showed that glutamine significantly reduced complications (RR 0.51; 95%CI 0.34-0.78) and mortality rate (RR 0.33; 95%CI 0.13-0.85).

CONCLUSION

The present meta-analysis shows a possible benefit of glutamine supplementation in patients with acute pancreatitis. However, large randomized trials are needed to confirm these observations.

Statin treatment for primary prevention of vascular disease: whom to treat? Cost-effectiveness analysis

OBJECTIVE

To assess the cost-effectiveness of low dose statins for primary prevention of vascular disease, incorporating current prices, non-adherence (reduced clinical efficacy while maintaining healthcare costs), and the results of the recently published JUPITER trial.

DESIGN

Cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov model. Sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulation evaluated the robustness of the results.

SETTING

Primary care in The Netherlands.

PARTICIPANTS

Hypothetical populations of men and women aged 45 to 75 years without a history of vascular disease at different levels of risk for vascular disease (myocardial infarction and stroke) over 10 years.

INTERVENTIONS

Low dose statin treatment daily versus no treatment for 10 years.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Number of fatal and nonfatal vascular events prevented, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios over 10 years.

RESULTS

Over a 10-year period, statin treatment cost €35 000 (£30 000, $49 000) per QALY gained for men aged 55 years with a 10-year vascular risk of 10%. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio improved as risk for vascular disease increased. The cost per QALY ranged from approximately €5000 to €125 000 when the 10-year vascular risk for men aged 55 years was varied from 25% to 5%. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio slightly decreased with age after the level of vascular risk was specified. Results were sensitive to the costs of statin treatment, statin effectiveness, non-adherence, disutility of taking medication daily, and the time horizon of the model.

CONCLUSIONS

In daily practice, statin treatment seemed not to be cost-effective for primary prevention in populations at low risk of vascular disease, despite low costs of generic drug pills. Adherence to statin treatment needs to be improved to enhance the cost-effectiveness of the use of statins for primary prevention.

Effectiveness of a hospital-based vascular screening programme (SMART) for risk factor management in patients with established vascular disease or type 2 diabetes: a parallel-group comparative study

AIMS

Modification of vascular risk factors is effective in reducing mortality and morbidity in patients with symptomatic atherosclerosis; however, it is difficult to achieve and maintain. The aim of the Risk management in Utrecht and Leiden Evaluation (RULE) study was to assess risk factor status after referral in patients with established vascular disease or type 2 diabetes who took part in the multidisciplinary hospital-based vascular screening programme, Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease, compared with a group who did not participate in such a programme.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Patients with type 2 diabetes, coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease or peripheral arterial disease referred by general practitioners to the medical specialist at the University Medical Center (UMC) Utrecht (a setting with a vascular screening programme of systematic screening of risk factors followed by treatment advice) and the Leiden UMC (a setting without such a screening programme), were enrolled in the study. Blood pressure, levels of lipids, glucose and creatinine, weight, waist circumference and smoking status were measured in patients 12-18 months after referral to the two hospitals. A total of 604 patients were treated in the setting with a vascular screening programme and 566 in the setting without such a programme; 70% of all patients were male, with a mean age of 61 +/- 10 years. Amongst screened patients, systolic blood pressure [2.5 mmHg, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.3-4.6] and the level of LDL cholesterol (0.3 mmol L(-1), 95% CI 0.2-0.4) were lower compared with the group that received usual care, after a median of 16 months from referral.

CONCLUSION

Systematic screening of risk factors, followed by evidence-based, tailored treatment advice contributed to slightly better risk factor reduction in patients with established vascular disease or type 2 diabetes. However, a large proportion of patients did not reach the treatment goals according to (inter)national guidelines. Systematic screening of vascular risk factors alone is not enough for adequate risk factor management in high-risk patients.

Alcoholic beverages and risk of renal cell cancer

Using a mailed questionnaire, we investigated the risk of renal cell cancer in relation to different types of alcoholic beverages, and to total ethanol in a large population-based case–control study among Swedish adults, including 855 cases and 1204 controls. Compared to non-drinkers, a total ethanol intake of >620 g month⁻¹ was significantly related to a decreased risk of renal cell cancer (odds ratio (OR) 0.6, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.4–0.9; P-value for trend=0.03). The risk decreased 30–40% with drinking more than two glasses per week of red wine (OR 0.6, 95% CI 0.4–0.9), white wine (OR 0.7, 95% CI 0.4–1.0), or strong beer (OR 0.6, 95% CI 0.4–1.0); there was a clear linear trend of decreasing risk with increasing consumption of these beverages (P-values for trends <0.05).