Tree mode of death and mortality risk factors across Amazon forests

The carbon sink capacity of tropical forests is substantially affected by tree mortality. However, the main drivers of tropical tree death remain largely unknown. Here we present a pan-Amazonian assessment of how and why trees die, analysing over 120,000 trees representing > 3800 species from 189 long-term RAINFOR forest plots. While tree mortality rates vary greatly Amazon-wide, on average trees are as likely to die standing as they are broken or uprooted-modes of death with different ecological consequences. Species-level growth rate is the single most important predictor of tree death in Amazonia, with faster-growing species being at higher risk. Within species, however, the slowest-growing trees are at greatest risk while the effect of tree size varies across the basin. In the driest Amazonian region species-level bioclimatic distributional patterns also predict the risk of death, suggesting that these forests are experiencing climatic conditions beyond their adaptative limits. These results provide not only a holistic pan-Amazonian picture of tree death but large-scale evidence for the overarching importance of the growth-survival trade-off in driving tropical tree mortality.

Compositional response of Amazon forests to climate change

Most of the planet's diversity is concentrated in the tropics, which includes many regions undergoing rapid climate change. Yet, while climate-induced biodiversity changes are widely documented elsewhere, few studies have addressed this issue for lowland tropical ecosystems. Here we investigate whether the floristic and functional composition of intact lowland Amazonian forests have been changing by evaluating records from 106 long-term inventory plots spanning 30 years. We analyse three traits that have been hypothesized to respond to different environmental drivers (increase in moisture stress and atmospheric CO₂ concentrations): maximum tree size, biogeographic water-deficit affiliation and wood density. Tree communities have become increasingly dominated by large-statured taxa, but to date there has been no detectable change in mean wood density or water deficit affiliation at the community level, despite most forest plots having experienced an intensification of the dry season. However, among newly recruited trees, dry-affiliated genera have become more abundant, while the mortality of wet-affiliated genera has increased in those plots where the dry season has intensified most. Thus, a slow shift to a more dry-affiliated Amazonia is underway, with changes in compositional dynamics (recruits and mortality) consistent with climate-change drivers, but yet to significantly impact whole-community composition. The Amazon observational record suggests that the increase in atmospheric CO₂ is driving a shift within tree communities to large-statured species and that climate changes to date will impact forest composition, but long generation times of tropical trees mean that biodiversity change is lagging behind climate change.

Modified Whittaker plots as an assessment and monitoring tool for vegetation in a lowland tropical rainforest

Resource exploitation in lowland tropical forests is increasing and causing loss of biodiversity. Effective evaluation and management of the impacts of development on tropical forests requires appropriate assessment and monitoring tools. We propose the use of 0.1-ha multi-scale, modified Whittaker plots (MWPs) to assess and monitor vegetation in lowland tropical rainforests. We established MWPs at 4 sites to: (1) describe and compare composition and structure of the sites using MWPs, (2) compare these results to those of 1-ha permanent vegetation plots (BDPs), and (3) evaluate the ability of MWPs to detect changes in populations (statistical power). We recorded more than 400 species at each site. Species composition among the sites was distinctive, while mean abundance and basal area was similar. Comparisons between MWPs and BDPs show that they record similar species composition and abundance and that both perform equally well at detecting rare species. However, MWPs tend to record more species, and power analysis studies show that MWPs were more effective at detecting changes in the mean number of species of trees > or = 10 cm in diameter at breast height (dbh) and in herbaceous plants. Ten MWPs were sufficient to detect a change of 11% in the mean number of herb species, and they were able to detect a 14% change in the mean number of species of trees > or =10 cm dbh. The value of MWPs for assessment and monitoring is discussed, along with recommendations for improving the sampling design to increase power.