Automated Machine Learning Predicts Necessary Upcoming Therapy Changes in Patients With Psoriasis Vulgaris et Arthritis And Uncovers New Influences On Disease Progression: Retrospective Study

BACKGROUND

Psoriasis vulgaris (PsV) and Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) are intertwined multifactorial diseases with significant impact on health and quality of life, which can be debilitating due to chronicity and treatment complexity. Predicting treatment response and disease progression in these conditions is challenging, but crucial for optimising therapeutic interventions. The advancing technology of automated machine learning (AutoML) holds great promise for rapidly building highly accurate predictive models based on patient features and treatment data.

OBJECTIVE

The study aimed to develop highly accurate ML models using AutoML to address key clinical questions in PsV and PsA patients, including predicting therapy changes and identifying reasons for therapy changes, factors influencing skin lesion progression or factors associated with an abnormal BASDAI score.

METHODS

After extensive dataset preparation of clinical study data from 309 PsV and PsA patients, a secondary dataset was created and ultimately analysed using AutoML to build a variety of predictive models and select the most accurate one for each variable of interest.

RESULTS

"Therapy change at 24 weeks follow-up" was modelled using the eXtreme Gradient Boosted Trees Classifier with Early Stopping model (AUC of 0.9078 and LogLoss of 0.3955 for the holdout partition) to gain insight into the factors influencing therapy change, such as the initial systemic therapeutic agent, the score achieved in the CASPAR classification criteria at baseline, and changes in quality of life. An AVG blender of 3 models (Gradient Boosted Trees Classifier, ExtraTrees Classifier, Eureqa Generalised Additive Model Classifier) with an AUC of 0.8750 and a LogLoss of 0.4603 was used to predict therapy changes on two hypothetical patients to highlight the importance of such influencing factors. Notably, treatments such as MTX or specific biologicals showed a lower propensity for change. A further AVG Blender of RandomForest Classifier, eXtreme Gradient Boosted Trees Classifier and Eureqa Classifier (AUC of 0.9241 and LogLoss of 0.4498) was then used to estimate "PASI change after 24 weeks" with the primary predictors being the initial PASI score, change in pruritus and change in therapy. A lower initial PASI score, and consistently low pruritus were associated with better outcomes. Finally, "BASDAI classification at baseline" was analysed using an AVG Blender of Eureqa Generalised Additive Model Classifier, eXtreme Gradient Boosted Trees Classifier with Early Stopping and Dropout Additive Regression Trees Classifier with an AUC of 0.8274 and LogLoss of 0.5037. Factors influencing BASDAI scores included initial pain, disease activity and HADS scores for depression and anxiety. Increased pain, disease activity and psychological distress were generally likely to lead to higher BASDAI scores.

CONCLUSIONS

The practical implications of these models for clinical decision making in PsV and PsA have the potential to guide early investigation and treatment, contributing to improved patient outcomes.

CLINICALTRIAL

The Effect of an Interdisciplinary Dermatological-Rheumatological Consultation on the Outcome of Patients with Psoriasis with Musculoskeletal Pain: A Prospective, Single-Center Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION

Psoriatic arthritis (PsA), a disease with complex inflammatory musculoskeletal manifestations, complicates psoriasis in up to 30% of patients. In this study, we aimed to determine the effect of an interdisciplinary dermatological-rheumatological consultation (IDRC) for patients with psoriasis with musculoskeletal symptoms.

METHODS

This prospective study enrolled 202 patients with psoriasis. Patients with musculoskeletal pain (MSP) (n = 115) participated in an IDRC 12 weeks after enrollment. The outcome was evaluated after 24 weeks.

RESULTS

In 12/79 (15.2%) patients seen in the IDRC, the prior diagnosis was changed: eight with a first diagnosis of PsA, four with a diagnosis of PsA rescinded. Treatment was modified in 28% of patients. Significant improvements in Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) (from 5.3 to 2.0; p < 0.001) and Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI) (from 6.7 to 4.5; p = 0.009) were observed. By comparing changes in PASI and DLQI over the study period, an improvement in PASI of 0.7 ± 1.4 points (p = 0.64) and in DLQI of 2.9 ± 1.5 points (p = 0.051) could be attributed to participation in the IDRC.

CONCLUSION

An IDRC of patients with psoriasis with MSP leads to a valid diagnosis of PsA and improvement in quality of life. Based on these results, an IDRC is a valuable and time efficient way for psoriasis patient with MSP to receive optimal care.

Automated Machine Learning Analysis of Patients With Chronic Skin Disease Using a Medical Smartphone App: Retrospective Study

BACKGROUND

Rapid digitalization in health care has led to the adoption of digital technologies; however, limited trust in internet-based health decisions and the need for technical personnel hinder the use of smartphones and machine learning applications. To address this, automated machine learning (AutoML) is a promising tool that can empower health care professionals to enhance the effectiveness of mobile health apps.

OBJECTIVE

We used AutoML to analyze data from clinical studies involving patients with chronic hand and/or foot eczema or psoriasis vulgaris who used a smartphone monitoring app. The analysis focused on itching, pain, Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI) development, and app use.

METHODS

After extensive data set preparation, which consisted of combining 3 primary data sets by extracting common features and by computing new features, a new pseudonymized secondary data set with a total of 368 patients was created. Next, multiple machine learning classification models were built during AutoML processing, with the most accurate models ultimately selected for further data set analysis.

RESULTS

Itching development for 6 months was accurately modeled using the light gradient boosted trees classifier model (log loss: 0.9302 for validation, 1.0193 for cross-validation, and 0.9167 for holdout). Pain development for 6 months was assessed using the random forest classifier model (log loss: 1.1799 for validation, 1.1561 for cross-validation, and 1.0976 for holdout). Then, the random forest classifier model (log loss: 1.3670 for validation, 1.4354 for cross-validation, and 1.3974 for holdout) was used again to estimate the DLQI development for 6 months. Finally, app use was analyzed using an elastic net blender model (area under the curve: 0.6567 for validation, 0.6207 for cross-validation, and 0.7232 for holdout). Influential feature correlations were identified, including BMI, age, disease activity, DLQI, and Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale-Anxiety scores at follow-up. App use increased with BMI >35, was less common in patients aged >47 years and those aged 23 to 31 years, and was more common in those with higher disease activity. A Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale-Anxiety score >8 had a slightly positive effect on app use.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides valuable insights into the relationship between data characteristics and targeted outcomes in patients with chronic eczema or psoriasis, highlighting the potential of smartphone and AutoML techniques in improving chronic disease management and patient care.

German Mobile Apps for Patients With Psoriasis: Systematic Search and Evaluation

Background

Psoriasis is a chronic inflammatory skin disease. The visibility of erythematous plaques on the skin as well as the pain and itchiness caused by the skin lesions frequently leads to psychological distress in patients. Smartphone apps are widespread and easily accessible. Earlier studies have shown that apps can effectively complement current management strategies for patients with psoriasis. However, no analysis of such apps has been published to date.

Objective

The aim of this study is to systematically identify and objectively assess the quality of current publicly available German apps for patients with psoriasis using the Mobile Application Rating Scale (MARS) and compile brief ready-to-use app descriptions.

Methods

We conducted a systematic search and assessment of German apps for patients with psoriasis available in the Google Play Store and Apple App Store. The identified apps were randomly assigned to 1 of 3 reviewers, who independently rated them using the German MARS (MARS-G). The MARS-G includes 15 items from 4 different sections (engagement, functionality, aesthetics, and information) to create an overall mean score for every app. Scores can range from 1 for the lowest-quality apps to 5 for the highest-quality apps. Apps were ranked according to their mean MARS-G rating, and the highest-ranked app was evaluated independently by 2 patients with psoriasis using the user version of the MARS-G (uMARS-G). Furthermore, app information, including origin, main function, and technical aspects, was compiled into a brief overview.

Results

In total, we were able to identify 95 unique apps for psoriasis, of which 15 were available in both app stores. Of these apps, 5 were not specifically intended for patients with psoriasis, 1 was designed for clinical trials only, and 1 was no longer available at the time the evaluation process began. Consequently, the remaining 8 apps were included in the final evaluation. The mean MARS-G scores ranged from 3.51 to 4.18. The app with the highest mean MARS-G score was Psoriasis Helferin (4.18/5.00). When rated by patients, however, the app was rated lower in all subcategories, resulting in a mean uMARS-G score of 3.48. Most apps had a commercial background and a focus on symptom tracking. However, only a fraction of the apps assessed used validated instruments to measure the user’s disease activity.

Conclusions

App quality was heterogeneous, and only a minority of the identified apps were available in both app stores. When evaluated by patients, app ratings were lower than when evaluated by health care professionals. This discrepancy highlights the importance of involving patients when developing and evaluating health-related apps as the factors that make an app appealing to users may differ between these 2 groups.

Trial Registration

Deutsches Register Klinischer Studien DRKS00020963; https://tinyurl.com/ye98an5b