Remdesivir for the Treatment of Covid-19 - Final Report

BACKGROUND

Although several therapeutic agents have been evaluated for the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), no antiviral agents have yet been shown to be efficacious.

METHODS

We conducted a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial of intravenous remdesivir in adults who were hospitalized with Covid-19 and had evidence of lower respiratory tract infection. Patients were randomly assigned to receive either remdesivir (200 mg loading dose on day 1, followed by 100 mg daily for up to 9 additional days) or placebo for up to 10 days. The primary outcome was the time to recovery, defined by either discharge from the hospital or hospitalization for infection-control purposes only.

RESULTS

A total of 1062 patients underwent randomization (with 541 assigned to remdesivir and 521 to placebo). Those who received remdesivir had a median recovery time of 10 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 9 to 11), as compared with 15 days (95% CI, 13 to 18) among those who received placebo (rate ratio for recovery, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.49; P<0.001, by a log-rank test). In an analysis that used a proportional-odds model with an eight-category ordinal scale, the patients who received remdesivir were found to be more likely than those who received placebo to have clinical improvement at day 15 (odds ratio, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.2 to 1.9, after adjustment for actual disease severity). The Kaplan-Meier estimates of mortality were 6.7% with remdesivir and 11.9% with placebo by day 15 and 11.4% with remdesivir and 15.2% with placebo by day 29 (hazard ratio, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.52 to 1.03). Serious adverse events were reported in 131 of the 532 patients who received remdesivir (24.6%) and in 163 of the 516 patients who received placebo (31.6%).

CONCLUSIONS

Our data show that remdesivir was superior to placebo in shortening the time to recovery in adults who were hospitalized with Covid-19 and had evidence of lower respiratory tract infection. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and others; ACTT-1 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04280705.).

Sexual Activity Without Condoms and Risk of HIV Transmission in Serodifferent Couples When the HIV-Positive Partner Is Using Suppressive Antiretroviral Therapy

IMPORTANCE

A key factor in assessing the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy (ART) as a prevention strategy is the absolute risk of HIV transmission through condomless sex with suppressed HIV-1 RNA viral load for both anal and vaginal sex.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the rate of within-couple HIV transmission (heterosexual and men who have sex with men [MSM]) during periods of sex without condoms and when the HIV-positive partner had HIV-1 RNA load less than 200 copies/mL.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

The prospective, observational PARTNER (Partners of People on ART-A New Evaluation of the Risks) study was conducted at 75 clinical sites in 14 European countries and enrolled 1166 HIV serodifferent couples (HIV-positive partner taking suppressive ART) who reported condomless sex (September 2010 to May 2014). Eligibility criteria for inclusion of couple-years of follow-up were condomless sex and HIV-1 RNA load less than 200 copies/mL. Anonymized phylogenetic analysis compared couples' HIV-1 polymerase and envelope sequences if an HIV-negative partner became infected to determine phylogenetically linked transmissions.

EXPOSURES

Condomless sexual activity with an HIV-positive partner taking virally suppressive ART.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Risk of within-couple HIV transmission to the HIV-negative partner.

RESULTS

Among 1166 enrolled couples, 888 (mean age, 42 years [IQR, 35-48]; 548 heterosexual [61.7%] and 340 MSM [38.3%]) provided 1238 eligible couple-years of follow-up (median follow-up, 1.3 years [IQR, 0.8-2.0]). At baseline, couples reported condomless sex for a median of 2 years (IQR, 0.5-6.3). Condomless sex with other partners was reported by 108 HIV-negative MSM (33%) and 21 heterosexuals (4%). During follow-up, couples reported condomless sex a median of 37 times per year (IQR, 15-71), with MSM couples reporting approximately 22,000 condomless sex acts and heterosexuals approximately 36,000. Although 11 HIV-negative partners became HIV-positive (10 MSM; 1 heterosexual; 8 reported condomless sex with other partners), no phylogenetically linked transmissions occurred over eligible couple-years of follow-up, giving a rate of within-couple HIV transmission of zero, with an upper 95% confidence limit of 0.30/100 couple-years of follow-up. The upper 95% confidence limit for condomless anal sex was 0.71 per 100 couple-years of follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among serodifferent heterosexual and MSM couples in which the HIV-positive partner was using suppressive ART and who reported condomless sex, during median follow-up of 1.3 years per couple, there were no documented cases of within-couple HIV transmission (upper 95% confidence limit, 0.30/100 couple-years of follow-up). Additional longer-term follow-up is necessary to provide more precise estimates of risk.

Decline in the AIDS and death rates in the EuroSIDA study: an observational study

BACKGROUND

Since the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), little is known about whether changes in HIV-1 mortality and morbidity rates have been sustained. We aimed to assess possible changes in these rates across Europe.

METHODS

We analysed data for 9803 patients in 70 European HIV centres including ones in Israel and Argentina. Incidence rates of AIDS or death were calculated for overall and most recent CD4 count in 6-monthly periods and in three treatment eras (pre-HAART, 1994-1995; early-HAART, 1996-1997; and late-HAART, 1998-2002).

FINDINGS

The incidence of AIDS or death fell after September, 1998, by 8% per 6-month period (rate ratio 0.92, 95% CI 0.88-0.95, p<0.0001). When AIDS and death were analysed separately, the incidence of all deaths during the late-HAART era was significantly lower than that during the early-HAART era in patients whose latest CD4 count was 20 cells/microL or less (0.43, 0.35-0.53, p<0.0001), but at higher CD4 counts, did not differ between early-HAART and late-HAART. Incidence of AIDS was about 50% lower in late-HAART than in early-HAART, irrespective of latest CD4 count (p<0.0001). In multivariate Cox's models, with early-HAART as the reference, there was an increased risk of AIDS (relative hazard 1.39; 95% CI 1.16-1.67, p=0.0004) and all deaths (1.29; 1.08-1.56, p=0.0065) in the pre-HAART era, and a reduced risk of AIDS (0.62; 0.50-0.77, p<0.0001) and all deaths (0.66; 0.53-0.82, p=0.0002) in the late-HAART era.

INTERPRETATION

The initial drop in mortality and morbidity after the introduction of HAART has been sustained. Potential long-term adverse effects associated with HAART have not altered its effectiveness in treating AIDS.

Changing patterns of mortality across Europe in patients infected with HIV-1. EuroSIDA Study Group

BACKGROUND

The introduction of combination antiretroviral therapy and protease inhibitors has led to reports of falling mortality rates among people infected with HIV-1. We examined the change in these mortality rates of HIV-1-infected patients across Europe during 1994-98, and assessed the extent to which changes can be explained by the use of new therapeutic regimens.

METHODS

We analysed data from EuroSIDA, which is a prospective, observational, European, multicentre cohort of 4270 HIV-1-infected patients. We compared death rates in each 6 month period from September, 1994, to March, 1998.

FINDINGS

By March, 1998, 1215 patients had died. The mortality rate from March to September, 1995, was 23.3 deaths per 100 person-years of follow-up (95% CI 20.6-26.0), and fell to 4.1 per 100 person-years of follow-up (2.3-5.9) between September, 1997, and March, 1998. From March to September, 1997, the death rate was 65.4 per 100 person-years of follow-up for those on no treatment, 7.5 per 100 person-years of follow-up for patients on dual therapy, and 3.4 per 100 person-years of follow-up for patients on triple-combination therapy. Compared with patients who were followed up from September, 1994, to March, 1995, patients seen between September, 1997, and March, 1998, had a relative hazard of death of 0.16 (0.08-0.32), which rose to 0.90 (0.50-1.64) after adjustment for treatment.

INTERPRETATION

Death rates across Europe among patients infected with HIV-1 have been falling since September, 1995, and at the beginning of 1998 were less than a fifth of their previous level. A large proportion of the reduction in mortality could be explained by new treatments or combinations of treatments.

Definitions of Cytomegalovirus Infection and Disease in Transplant Patients for Use in Clinical Trials

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection and disease are important causes of morbidity and mortality in transplant recipients. For the purpose of developing consistent reporting of CMV outcomes in clinical trials, definitions of CMV infection and disease were developed and most recently published in 2002. Since then, there have been major developments in its diagnosis and management. Therefore, the CMV Drug Development Forum consisting of scientists, clinicians, regulators, and industry representatives has produced an updated version incorporating recent knowledge with the aim to support clinical research and drug development. The main changes compared to previous definitions are the introduction of a "probable disease" category and to incorporate quantitative nucleic acid testing in some end-organ disease categories. As the field evolves, the need for updates of these definitions is clear, and collaborative efforts between scientists, regulators, and industry can provide a platform for this work.

Risk of HIV transmission through condomless sex in serodifferent gay couples with the HIV-positive partner taking suppressive antiretroviral therapy (PARTNER): final results of a multicentre, prospective, observational study

BACKGROUND

The level of evidence for HIV transmission risk through condomless sex in serodifferent gay couples with the HIV-positive partner taking virally suppressive antiretroviral therapy (ART) is limited compared with the evidence available for transmission risk in heterosexual couples. The aim of the second phase of the PARTNER study (PARTNER2) was to provide precise estimates of transmission risk in gay serodifferent partnerships.

METHODS

The PARTNER study was a prospective observational study done at 75 sites in 14 European countries. The first phase of the study (PARTNER1; Sept 15, 2010, to May 31, 2014) recruited and followed up both heterosexual and gay serodifferent couples (HIV-positive partner taking suppressive ART) who reported condomless sex, whereas the PARTNER2 extension (to April 30, 2018) recruited and followed up gay couples only. At study visits, data collection included sexual behaviour questionnaires, HIV testing (HIV-negative partner), and HIV-1 viral load testing (HIV-positive partner). If a seroconversion occurred in the HIV-negative partner, anonymised phylogenetic analysis was done to compare HIV-1 pol and env sequences in both partners to identify linked transmissions. Couple-years of follow-up were eligible for inclusion if condomless sex was reported, use of pre-exposure prophylaxis or post-exposure prophylaxis was not reported by the HIV-negative partner, and the HIV-positive partner was virally suppressed (plasma HIV-1 RNA <200 copies per mL) at the most recent visit (within the past year). Incidence rate of HIV transmission was calculated as the number of phylogenetically linked HIV infections that occurred during eligible couple-years of follow-up divided by eligible couple-years of follow-up. Two-sided 95% CIs for the incidence rate of transmission were calculated using exact Poisson methods.

FINDINGS

Between Sept 15, 2010, and July 31, 2017, 972 gay couples were enrolled, of which 782 provided 1593 eligible couple-years of follow-up with a median follow-up of 2·0 years (IQR 1·1-3·5). At baseline, median age for HIV-positive partners was 40 years (IQR 33-46) and couples reported condomless sex for a median of 1·0 years (IQR 0·4-2·9). During eligible couple-years of follow-up, couples reported condomless anal sex a total of 76 088 times. 288 (37%) of 777 HIV-negative men reported condomless sex with other partners. 15 new HIV infections occurred during eligible couple-years of follow-up, but none were phylogenetically linked within-couple transmissions, resulting in an HIV transmission rate of zero (upper 95% CI 0·23 per 100 couple-years of follow-up).

INTERPRETATION

Our results provide a similar level of evidence on viral suppression and HIV transmission risk for gay men to that previously generated for heterosexual couples and suggest that the risk of HIV transmission in gay couples through condomless sex when HIV viral load is suppressed is effectively zero. Our findings support the message of the U=U (undetectable equals untransmittable) campaign, and the benefits of early testing and treatment for HIV.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health Research.

Inflammation, coagulation and cardiovascular disease in HIV-infected individuals

Background

The SMART study was a trial of intermittent use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) (drug conservation [DC]) versus continuous use of ART (viral suppression [VS]) as a strategy to reduce toxicities, including cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. We studied the predictive value of high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6) and D-dimer with CVD morbidity and mortality in HIV-infected patients who were enrolled in SMART beyond other measured CVD risk factors.

Methods

A blood sample was available in 5098 participants who were enrolled in the SMART study for the measurement of IL-6, hsCRP and D-dimer. Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% CI for CVD events were estimated for each quartile (Q) for each biomarker vs the 1^st quartile and for 1 SD higher levels. For both treatment groups combined, unadjusted and adjusted HRs were determined using Cox regression models.

Results

There were 252 participants who had a CVD event over a median follow-up of 29 months. Adjusted HRs (95% CI) for CVD for Q4 vs Q1 were 4.65 (2.61, 8.29), 2.10 (1.40, 3.16), and 2.14 (1.38, 3.33) for IL-6, hsCRP and D-dimer, respectively. Associations were similar for the DC and VS treatment groups (interaction p-values were >0.30). The addition of the three biomarkers to a model that included baseline covariates significantly improved model fit (p<0.001). Area under the curve (AUC) estimates improved with inclusion of the three biomarkers in a model that included baseline covariates corresponding to other CVD risk factors and HIV factors (0.741 to 0.771; p<0.001 for difference).

Conclusions

In HIV-infected individuals, IL-6, hsCRP and D-dimer are associated with an increased risk of CVD independent of other CVD risk factors. Further research is needed to determine whether these biomarkers can be used to improve CVD risk prediction among HIV positive individuals.

Late presentation of HIV infection: a consensus definition

OBJECTIVES

Across Europe, almost a third of individuals infected with HIV do not enter health care until late in the course of their infection. Surveillance to identify the extent to which late presentation occurs remains inadequate across Europe and is further complicated by the lack of a common clinical definition of late presentation. The objective of this article is to present a consensus definition of late presentation of HIV infection.

METHODS

Over the past year, two initiatives have moved towards a harmonized definition. In spring 2009, they joined efforts to identify a common definition of what is meant by a 'late-presenting' patient.

RESULTS

Two definitions were agreed upon, as follows. Late presentation: persons presenting for care with a CD4 count below 350 cells/μL or presenting with an AIDS-defining event, regardless of the CD4 cell count. Presentation with advanced HIV disease: persons presenting for care with a CD4 count below 200 cells/μL or presenting with an AIDS-defining event, regardless of the CD4 cell count.

CONCLUSION

The European Late Presenter Consensus working group believe it would be beneficial if all national health agencies, institutions, and researchers were able to implement this definition (either on its own or alongside their own preferred definition) when reporting surveillance or research data relating to late presentation of HIV infection.

AIDS across Europe, 1994-98: the EuroSIDA study

BACKGROUND

The clinical presentation of HIV-1 related diseases could have changed after the introduction of highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART). We aimed to assess changes over time in the incidence of ADIs overall and within CD4 lymphocyte count strata, the relationship with treatment and degree of immunodeficiency at diagnosis of ADIs.

METHODS

We did a prospective observational multicentre study of over 7300 patients in 52 European HIV-1 outpatient clinics. Incidence rates per 100 patient-years of observation were calculated.

FINDINGS

In total, we recorded 1667 new ADIs; the incidence of ADIs declined from 30.7 per 100 patient-years of observation during 1994 (95% CI 28.0-33.4) to 2.5 per 100 patient-years of observation during 1998 (95% CI 2.0-3.0, p<0.0001, test for trend). Median CD4 lymphocyte count at diagnosis of a new ADI increased from 28 cells/microL to 125 cells/microL between 1994 and 1998 (p<0.0001), yet a steep decline in the rate of ADIs was seen after stratification by latest CD4 lymphocyte count within each year (< or = 50, 51-200, and > 200 cells/microL). Patients on HAART had a lower rate of ADIs than patients not on this treatment within each CD4 lymphocyte count strata. The proportion of ADIs attributable to cytomegalovirus retinitis and Mycobacterium avium complex declined over time (p=0.0058 and 0.0022, respectively), whereas the proportion of diagnoses attributable to non-Hodgkin lymphoma has increased (p<0.0001). In 1994, less than 4% of ADIs were non-Hodgkin lymphoma, in 1998 the proportion was almost 16%. This condition has become one of the most common ADIs in patients on HAART.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings lend support to the idea that treatment regimens can lower the incidence of ADIs. The immediate risk of an ADI for a given CD4 lymphocyte count has declined over time and is lower among patients on HAART. Long-term follow-up of patients on combination treatment is essential to monitor the incidence of new and emerging diagnoses.

An objective case definition of lipodystrophy in HIV-infected adults: a case-control study

BACKGROUND

Lipodystrophy (peripheral lipoatrophy, central fat accumulation, and lipomatosis) is a common and disfiguring problem in adult patients with HIV-1 infection on antiretrovirals. However, an objective, validated definition of the disorder does not exist. We aimed to develop an objective, sensitive, specific, and broadly applicable case definition of HIV lipodystrophy.

METHODS

In a case-control study, 1081 consecutive, HIV-infected, adult outpatients (261 [15%] women) without active AIDS were recruited from 32 sites worldwide. We classed patients with at least one moderate or severe subjective lipodystrophic feature, identified by lipodystrophy-specific physical examination and patient questionnaire, and apparent to both doctor and patient as cases (n=417). We classed patients with no such feature as controls (n=371), and patients without a clear diagnosis as non-assigned. We used objective clinical, metabolic, and body composition measurements to construct a logistic regression model with a subset of randomly selected cases and controls. The model was validated in the remaining patients.

FINDINGS

A model including age, sex, duration of HIV infection, HIV disease stage, waist to hip ratio, anion gap, serum HDL cholesterol concentration, trunk to peripheral fat ratio, percentage leg fat, and intra-abdominal to extra-abdominal fat ratio had 79% (95% CI 70-85) sensitivity and 80% (95% CI 71-87) specificity for diagnosis of lipodystrophy. Models that incorporated only clinical, or only clinical and metabolic variables had lower sensitivity and specificity than the inclusive model. Models for lipoatrophy, fat accumulation, and lipomatosis could not be developed since pure phenotypes occurred in fewer than 10% of patients with clinical diagnoses of these disorders.

INTERPRETATION

Our objective case definition of HIV-associated lipodystrophy should improve assessment of lipodystrophy prevalence, risk factors, and pathogenesis; prevention and treatment approaches; and assist in diagnosis.

Influence of hepatitis C virus infection on HIV-1 disease progression and response to highly active antiretroviral therapy

OBJECTIVE

To assess hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibody prevalence in the EuroSIDA cohort, along with survival, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 disease progression, virologic response (plasma HIV-1 RNA load of < 500 copies/mL), and CD4 cell count recovery by HCV serostatus in patients initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART).

RESULTS

HCV serostatus at or before enrollment was available for 5957 patients; 1960 (33%) and 3997 (67%) were HCV seropositive and seronegative, respectively. No association between an increased incidence of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome-defining illnesses or death and HCV serostatus was seen after adjustment for other prognostic risk factors known at baseline (adjusted incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.97 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.81-1.16]). However, there was a large increase in the incidence of liver disease-related deaths in HCV-seropositive patients in adjusted models (IRR, 11.71 [95% CI, 6.42-21.34]). Among 2260 patients of known HCV serostatus initiating HAART, after adjustment, there was no significant difference between HCV-seropositive and -seronegative patients with respect to virologic response (relative hazard [RH], 1.13 [95% CI, 0.84-1.51]) and immunologic response, whether measured as a > or = 50% increase (RH, 0.94 [95% CI, 0.77-1.16]) or a > or = 50 cells/microL increase (RH, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.77-1.11]) in CD4 cell count after HAART initiation.

CONCLUSIONS

HCV serostatus did not affect the risk of HIV-1 disease progression, but the risk of liver disease-related deaths was markedly increased in HCV-seropositive patients. The overall virologic and immunologic responses to HAART were not affected by HCV serostatus.

Interleukin-2 therapy in patients with HIV infection

BACKGROUND

Used in combination with antiretroviral therapy, subcutaneous recombinant interleukin-2 raises CD4+ cell counts more than does antiretroviral therapy alone. The clinical implication of these increases is not known.

METHODS

We conducted two trials: the Subcutaneous Recombinant, Human Interleukin-2 in HIV-Infected Patients with Low CD4+ Counts under Active Antiretroviral Therapy (SILCAAT) study and the Evaluation of Subcutaneous Proleukin in a Randomized International Trial (ESPRIT). In each, patients infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) who had CD4+ cell counts of either 50 to 299 per cubic millimeter (SILCAAT) or 300 or more per cubic millimeter (ESPRIT) were randomly assigned to receive interleukin-2 plus antiretroviral therapy or antiretroviral therapy alone. The interleukin-2 regimen consisted of cycles of 5 consecutive days each, administered at 8-week intervals. The SILCAAT study involved six cycles and a dose of 4.5 million IU of interleukin-2 twice daily; ESPRIT involved three cycles and a dose of 7.5 million IU twice daily. Additional cycles were recommended to maintain the CD4+ cell count above predefined target levels. The primary end point of both studies was opportunistic disease or death from any cause.

RESULTS

In the SILCAAT study, 1695 patients (849 receiving interleukin-2 plus antiretroviral therapy and 846 receiving antiretroviral therapy alone) who had a median CD4+ cell count of 202 cells per cubic millimeter were enrolled; in ESPRIT, 4111 patients (2071 receiving interleukin-2 plus antiretroviral therapy and 2040 receiving antiretroviral therapy alone) who had a median CD4+ cell count of 457 cells per cubic millimeter were enrolled. Over a median follow-up period of 7 to 8 years, the CD4+ cell count was higher in the interleukin-2 group than in the group receiving antiretroviral therapy alone--by 53 and 159 cells per cubic millimeter, on average, in the SILCAAT study and ESPRIT, respectively. Hazard ratios for opportunistic disease or death from any cause with interleukin-2 plus antiretroviral therapy (vs. antiretroviral therapy alone) were 0.91 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.70 to 1.18; P=0.47) in the SILCAAT study and 0.94 (95% CI, 0.75 to 1.16; P=0.55) in ESPRIT. The hazard ratios for death from any cause and for grade 4 clinical events were 1.06 (P=0.73) and 1.10 (P=0.35), respectively, in the SILCAAT study and 0.90 (P=0.42) and 1.23 (P=0.003), respectively, in ESPRIT.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite a substantial and sustained increase in the CD4+ cell count, as compared with antiretroviral therapy alone, interleukin-2 plus antiretroviral therapy yielded no clinical benefit in either study. (ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT00004978 [ESPRIT] and NCT00013611 [SILCAAT study].)

Anaemia is an independent predictive marker for clinical prognosis in HIV-infected patients from across Europe. EuroSIDA study group

OBJECTIVES

To describe changes in haemoglobin over time and to determine the joint prognostic value of the current haemoglobin, CD4 lymphocyte count and viral load among patients from across Europe.

PATIENTS

The analysis included 6725 patients from EuroSIDA, an observational, prospective cohort of patients with HIV from across Europe.

METHODS

Normal haemoglobin was defined as haemoglobin greater than 14 g/dl for men and 12 g/dl for women; mild anaemia was 8-14 g/dl for men and 8-12 g/dl for women; severe anaemia was defined as less than 8 g/dl for both males and females. Linear regression techniques were used to estimate the annual change in haemoglobin; standard survival techniques were used to describe disease progression and risk of death.

RESULTS

At recruitment to the study, 40.4% had normal levels of haemoglobin, 58.2% had mild anaemia and 1.4% had severe anaemia. At 12 months after recruitment, the proportion of patients estimated to have died was 3.1% [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.3-3.9] for patients without anaemia, 15.9% for patients with mild anaemia (95% CI 14.5-17.2) and 40.8% for patients with severe anaemia (95% CI 27.9-53.6; P < 0.0001). In a multivariate, time-updated Cox proportional hazards model, adjusted for demographic factors, AIDS status and each antiretroviral treatment as time-dependent covariates, a 1 g/dl decrease in the latest haemoglobin level increased the hazard of death by 57% [relative hazard (RH) 1.57; 95% CI 1.41-1.75; P < 0.0001], a 50% drop in the most recent CD4 lymphocyte count increased the hazard by 51% (RH 1.51; 95% CI 1.35-1.70; P < 0.0001) and a log increase in the latest viral load increased the hazard by 37% (RH 1.37; 95% CI 1.15-1.63; P = 0.0005).

CONCLUSIONS

Severe anaemia occurred infrequently among these patients but was associated with a much faster rate of disease progression. Among patients with similar CD4 lymphocyte counts and viral load, the latest value of haemoglobin was a strong independent prognostic marker for death.

Lipid Profiles in HIV‐Infected Patients Receiving Combination Antiretroviral Therapy: Are Different Antiretroviral Drugs Associated with Different Lipid Profiles?

Levels of triglycerides (TG), total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c), as well as the TC:HDL-c ratio, were compared in patients receiving different antiretroviral therapy regimens. Patients receiving first-line regimens including protease inhibitors (PIs) had higher TC and TG levels and TC : HDL-c ratios than did antiretroviral-naive patients; patients receiving 2 PIs had higher levels of each lipid. Ritonavir-containing regimens were associated with higher TC and TG levels and TC : HDL-c ratios than were indinavir-containing regimens; however, receipt of nelfinavir was associated with reduced risk of lower HDL-c levels, and receipt of saquinavir was associated with lower TC : HDL-c ratios. Patients receiving nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors had higher levels of TC and LDL-c than did antiretroviral-naive patients, although the risk of having lower HDL-c levels was lower than that in patients receiving a single PI. Efavirenz was associated with higher levels of TC and TG than was nevirapine.

The use of the Framingham equation to predict myocardial infarctions in HIV-infected patients: comparison with observed events in the D:A:D Study

BACKGROUND

The D:A:D (Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs) Study, a prospective observational study on a cohort of 23 468 patients with HIV infection, indicated that the incidence of myocardial infarction (MI) increased by 26% per year of exposure to combination antiretroviral treatment (CART). However, it remains unclear whether the observed increase in the rate of MI in this population can be attributed to changes in conventional cardiovascular risk factors.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the number of MIs observed among participants in the D:A:D Study with the number predicted by assuming that conventional cardiovascular risk equations apply to patients with HIV infection.

METHODS

The Framingham equation, a conventional cardiovascular risk algorithm, was applied to individual patient data in the D:A:D Study to predict rates of MI by duration of CART. A series of sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the effect of model and data assumptions. Predictions were extrapolated to provide 10-year risk estimates, and various scenarios were modelled to assess the expected effect of different interventions.

RESULTS

In patients receiving CART, the observed numbers of MIs during D:A:D follow up were similar to or somewhat higher than predicted numbers: 9 observed vs 5.5 events predicted, 14 vs 9.8, 22 vs 14.9, 31 vs 23.2 and 47 vs 37.0 for<1 year, 1-2 years, 2-3 years, 3-4 years and >4 years CART exposure, respectively. In patients who had not received CART, the observed number of MIs was fewer than predicted (3 observed vs 7.6 predicted). Nine per cent of the study population have a predicted 10-year risk of MI above 10%, a level usually associated with initiation of intervention on risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

A consistent feature of all analyses was that observed and predicted rates of MI increased in a parallel fashion with increased CART duration, suggesting that the observed increase in risk of MI may at least in part be explained by CART-induced changes in conventional risk factors. These findings provide guidance in terms of choosing lifestyle or therapeutic interventions to decrease those risk factors in much the same way as in persons without HIV infection.

Changes in the cause of death among HIV positive subjects across Europe: results from the EuroSIDA study

OBJECTIVES

The causes of death among HIV-positive patients may have changed since the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). We investigated these changes, patients who died without an AIDS diagnosis and factors relating to pre-AIDS deaths.

METHODS

Analyses of 1826 deaths among EuroSIDA patients, an observational study of 8556 patients. Incidence rates of pre-AIDS deaths were compared to overall rates. Factors relating to pre-AIDS deaths were identified using Cox regression.

RESULTS

Death rates declined from 15.6 to 2.7 per 100 person-years of follow-up (PYFU) between 1994 and 2001. Pre-AIDS incidence declined from 2.4 to 1.1 per 100 PYFU. The ratio of overall to pre-AIDS deaths peaked in 1996 at 8.4 and dropped to < 3 after 1998. The adjusted odds of dying following one AIDS defining event (ADE) increased yearly (odds ratio, 1.53; P < 0.001), conversely the odds of dying following three or more ADE decreased yearly (odds ratio, 0.79; P < 0.001). The proportion of deaths that followed an HIV-related disease decreased by 23% annually; in contrast there was a 32% yearly increase in the proportion of deaths due to known causes other than HIV-related or suicides. Injecting drug users (IDU) were significantly more likely to die before an ADE than homosexuals (relative hazard, 2.97; P < 0.0001) and patients from northern/eastern Europe (relative hazard, 2.01; P < 0.0001) were more likely to die pre-AIDS than southern patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The proportion of pre-AIDS deaths increased from 1994 to 2001; however, the incidence of pre-AIDS deaths and deaths overall declined. IDU and subjects from northern/eastern Europe had an increased risk of pre-AIDS death. HIV-positive patients live longer therefore it is essential to continue to monitor all causes of mortality to identify changes.

HIV viral load response to antiretroviral therapy according to the baseline CD4 cell count and viral load

CONTEXT

It is unclear whether delay in initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) may lead to a poorer viral load response for patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV).

OBJECTIVE

To characterize the relationship of viral load response to ART with baseline CD4 cell count and baseline viral load.

DESIGN

Inception cohort of 3430 therapy-naive patients with HIV, of whom 3226 patients had at least 1 viral load count after the start of ART.

SETTING

Three cohort studies of patients cared for in HIV clinics in Europe between 1996 and 2000.

PATIENTS

All patients initiating ART consisting of at least 3 drugs initiated in or after 1996 and for whom CD4 cell count and viral load were available in the prior 6 months (at most).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Viral load decrease to below 500 copies/mL; viral load rebound to above 500 copies/mL (2 consecutive values).

RESULTS

Of 3226 patients during the median follow-up of 119 weeks, 2741 (85%) experienced viral suppression to less than 500 copies/mL by 32 weeks. Relative hazards (RHs) of achieving this were 1.08 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.98-1.21) and 0.94 (95% CI, 0.84-1.04) for baseline CD4 cell counts between 200 and 349 x 10(6)/L and baseline CD4 cell counts lower than 200 x 10(6)/L, respectively, compared with baseline CD4 cell counts of 350 x 10(6)/L or higher, after adjustment for several factors including baseline viral load. For baseline viral load, the RHs were 0.95 (95% CI, 0.84-1.07) and 0.65 (95% CI, 0.58-0.74), for 10 000 to 99 999 and 100 000 copies/mL or greater, respectively, compared with less than 10 000 copies/mL, but the probability of viral load lower than 500 copies/mL at week 32 was similar in all 3 groups. Subsequent rebound above 500 copies/mL was no more likely with a lower baseline CD4 cell count or higher viral load.

CONCLUSION

In this study, lower CD4 cell counts and higher viral loads at baseline were not associated with poorer virological outcome of ART. Those with baseline viral loads of greater than 100 000 copies/mL had a slower rate of achieving viral suppression.

Prognostic importance of initial response in HIV-1 infected patients starting potent antiretroviral therapy: analysis of prospective studies

BACKGROUND

We examined whether the initial virological and immunological response to highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) is prognostic in patients with HIV-1 who start HAART.

METHODS

We analysed 13 cohort studies from Europe and North America including 9323 adult treatment-naive patients who were starting HAART with a combination of at least three drugs. We modelled clinical progression from month 6 after starting HAART, taking into account CD4 count and HIV-1 RNA measured at baseline and 6 months.

FINDINGS

During 13408 years of follow-up 152 patients died and 874 developed AIDS or died. Compared with patients who had a 6-month CD4 count of fewer than 25 cells/microL, adjusted hazard ratios for AIDS or death were 0.55 (95%CI 0.32-0.96) for 25-49 cells/microL, 0.62 (0.40-0.96) for 50-99 cells/microL, 0.42 (0.28-0.64) for 100-199 cells/microL, 0.25 (0.16-0.38) for 200-349 cells/microL, and 0.18 (0.11-0.29) for 350 or more cells/microL at 6 months. Compared with patients who had a 6-month HIV-1 RNA of 100000 copies/mL or greater, adjusted hazard ratios for AIDS or death were 0.59 (0.41-0.86) for 10000-99999 copies/mL, 0.42 (0.29-0.61) for 500-9999 copies/mL, and 0.29 (0.21-0.39) for 6-month HIV-1 RNA of 500 copies/mL or fewer. Baseline CD4 and HIV-1 RNA were not associated with progression after controlling for 6-month concentrations. The probability of progression at 3 years ranged from 2.4% in the patients in the lowest-risk stratum to 83% in patients in the highest-risk stratum.

INTERPRETATION

At 6 months after starting HAART, the current CD4 cell count and viral load, but not values at baseline, are strongly associated with subsequent disease progression. Our findings should inform guidelines on when to modify HAART.

Changing incidence of central nervous system diseases in the EuroSIDA cohort

A drastic decrease in incidence has been observed for most human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-related opportunistic manifestations after use of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). We assessed the trend of incidence of central nervous system (CNS) diseases in a prospective multicenter observational study involving 9,803 patients across Europe in the period 1994 to 2002 and analyzed patient and treatment variables associated with these conditions. Overall, 568 patients (5.8%) received a diagnosis of a new CNS disease. Incidence decreased significantly from 5.9 per 100 person-year in 1994 to 0.5 in 2002. Overall, the decrease was 40% per calendar year, and it was similar to that of non-CNS diseases and less evident after year 1998. In multivariable models, low CD4 cell count and high plasma viral load, but not HAART or calendar year, were significantly associated with risk to develop CNS disease, indicating that the effect of HAART was likely mediated by both improved immunological conditions and inhibition of viral replication. In contrast, use of nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors, irrespective of use of protease inhibitors or non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors, appeared to protect specifically against acquired immunodeficiency disease syndrome dementia complex, suggesting that, in this condition, therapy might have a direct, additive effect in the CNS.

Cardio- and cerebrovascular events in HIV-infected persons

OBJECTIVE

Recent results from the D:A:D Study indicated that the incidence of myocardial infarction (MI) increased by 26% per year of exposure to combination antiretroviral treatment (CART). The present study was performed to investigate whether this risk was similar when including other cardio- and cerebro-vascular disease events (CCVE).

DESIGN

D:A:D is an international collaboration of 11 cohorts, following 23 468 HIV-infected patients prospectively at 188 clinics in 21 countries situated in Europe, USA and Australia.

METHODS

The end-point was the occurrence of a first CCVE during prospective follow-up, defined as the first of: acute MI, invasive cardiovascular procedures, stroke, or death from other cardiovascular disease. Relative rates (RR) for CCVE from Poisson regression models and 95% confidence intervals (CI) are reported. All models are adjusted for other risk factors for CCVE, including age, gender, ethnicity, family history, body mass index, and smoking status as well as cohort and HIV transmission group.

RESULTS

Over 36 145 person-years of follow-up, 207 patients experienced at least one CCVE (23.7% fatal). The first event was MI in 126 patients, invasive cardiovascular procedure in 39 patients, stroke in 38 patients, and death from other cardiovascular disease in four patients. The incidence of first CCVE was 5.7 per 1000 person-years [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.0-6.5] and increased with longer exposure to CART (RR per year of exposure, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.14-1.38; P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

CART increases the risk of CCVD, and this increase is comparable with how CART affects the risk of MI. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis that atherosclerosis is a side-effect of CART.

Normalisation of CD4 counts in patients with HIV-1 infection and maximum virological suppression who are taking combination antiretroviral therapy: an observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

Combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) has been shown to reduce mortality and morbidity in patients with HIV. As viral replication falls, the CD4 count increases, but whether the CD4 count returns to the level seen in HIV-negative people is unknown. We aimed to assess whether the CD4 count for patients with maximum virological suppression (viral load <50 copies per mL) continues to increase with long-term cART to reach levels seen in HIV-negative populations.

METHODS

We compared increases in CD4 counts in 1835 antiretroviral-naive patients who started cART from EuroSIDA, a pan-European observational cohort study. Rate of increase in CD4 count (per year) occurring between pairs of consecutive viral loads below 50 copies per mL was estimated using generalised linear models, accounting for multiple measurements for individual patients.

FINDINGS

The median CD4 count at starting cART was 204 cells per microL (IQR 85-330). The greatest mean yearly increase in CD4 count of 100 cells per microL was seen in the year after starting cART. Significant, but lower, yearly increases in CD4 count, around 50 cells per microL, were seen even at 5 years after starting cART in patients whose current CD4 count was less than 500 cells per microL. The only groups without significant increases in CD4 count were those where cART had been taken for more than 5 years with a current CD4 count of more than 500 cells per microL, (current mean CD4 count 774 cells per microL; 95% CI 764-783). Patients starting cART with low CD4 counts (<200 cells per microL) had significant rises in CD4 counts even after 5 years of cART.

INTERPRETATION

Normalisation of CD4 counts in HIV-infected patients for all infected individuals might be achievable if viral suppression with cART can be maintained for a sufficiently long period of time.

Predictors of virological success and ensuing failure in HIV-positive patients starting highly active antiretroviral therapy in Europe: results from the EuroSIDA study

BACKGROUND

Predictors of virological response to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) have never been systematically evaluated in a large continental multicenter cohort of unselected human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected people.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the factors related to achieving and maintaining undetectable plasma HIV-1 RNA levels among HIV-1-infected patients first starting protease inhibitor- or nonnucleoside retrotranscriptase inhibitor-containing HAART in Europe.

DESIGN

Prospective multicenter cohort study.

SETTING

Fifty-two clinical centers in 17 European countries included in the EuroSIDA Study Group, from August 1996 to April 1999.

PATIENTS

A total of 1469 HIV-positive patients first starting HAART recruited from an unselected cohort of more than 7300 HIV-positive patients.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Detection of factors related to virological success after first starting HAART (baseline) and ensuing failure by standard survival techniques, including Kaplan-Meier techniques and Cox proportional hazards models. All analyses were intention to treat.

RESULTS

Most patients (80%) achieved plasma HIV-1 RNA levels of less than 500 copies/mL during follow-up (60.4% at 6 months from the onset of HAART). Patients with higher baseline HIV-1 RNA levels (relative hazard [RH], 0.76 per log higher; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.69-0.84; P<.001) and those taking saquinavir mesylate hard gel as a single protease inhibitor (RH, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.47-0.82; P<.001) were less likely to reach undetectable HIV-1 RNA levels. Conversely, higher CD4+ lymphocyte counts (RH per 50% higher, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.02-1.16; P = .008) and the initiation of 3 or more new antiretroviral drugs (RH, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.03-1.61; P = .02) were independent predictors of higher success. Once success was achieved, HIV-1 RNA levels rebounded in more than one third of all patients during follow-up (24% at 6 months). Antiretroviral-naive patients (RH, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.29-0.87; P = .01), older patients (RH, 0.86 per year older; 95% CI, 0.75-0.99; P = .04), and those starting a protease inhibitor other than saquinavir hard gel (RH, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.44-0.98; P = .04) were at decreased hazard for virological failure. Higher baseline HIV-1 RNA level (RH, 1.18 per log higher; 95% CI, 0.99-1.40; P = .06) and a longer time to achieve virological success (RH per 12 months, 1.53; 95% CI, 0.99-2.38; P = .06) were marginally significant predictors of a decreased hazard of ensuing virological failure.

CONCLUSIONS

HAART is associated with a favorable virological response if started when the baseline HIV-1 RNA level is low, if at least 2 new nucleoside retrotranscriptase inhibitors are added, and if standard doses of saquinavir hard gel capsule are avoided as a single protease inhibitor. Older patients are more likely to achieve virological success. Thereafter, the higher durability of virological response is predicted by an antiretroviral-naive status and by the use of specific regimens. Lower baseline HIV-1 RNA levels and rapid maximal viral suppression seem to be other important factors in the durability of virological response.

Influence of age on CD4 cell recovery in human immunodeficiency virus-infected patients receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy: evidence from the EuroSIDA study

Influence of age on the CD4 cell response to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) was examined in 1956 patients (median age, 37.2 years) in the EuroSIDA study. Median initial CD4 cell count was 192x106 cells/L, follow-up was 31 months, and time to maximum CD4 cell response was 20 months. Age groups were not different for baseline CD4 cell count, baseline human immunodeficiency virus RNA load, or treatment history. CD4 cell increase, stratified by age quartiles, differed during months 3-36 of HAART (P=.023). Maximum CD4 cell increase from start of HAART differed by age group (P=.0003), as did maximum CD4 cell count (P<10-4). Multivariate analysis confirmed the inverse relationship between age and maximum CD4 cell response (P=.023). Time to a CD4 increase of >200x106 cells/L was shorter for patients in the younger age groups (P=.0026), as confirmed by multivariate analysis (P<10-4). Younger age may favor CD4 cell restoration because of preserved thymic function.

HIV treatment response and prognosis in Europe and North America in the first decade of highly active antiretroviral therapy: a collaborative analysis

BACKGROUND

Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) for the treatment of HIV infection was introduced a decade ago. We aimed to examine trends in the characteristics of patients starting HAART in Europe and North America, and their treatment response and short-term prognosis.

METHODS

We analysed data from 22,217 treatment-naive HIV-1-infected adults who had started HAART and were followed up in one of 12 cohort studies. The probability of reaching 500 or less HIV-1 RNA copies per mL by 6 months, and the change in CD4 cell counts, were analysed for patients starting HAART in 1995-96, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2002-03. The primary endpoints were the hazard ratios for AIDS and for death from all causes in the first year of HAART, which were estimated using Cox regression.

RESULTS

The proportion of heterosexually infected patients increased from 20% in 1995-96 to 47% in 2002-03, and the proportion of women from 16% to 32%. The median CD4 cell count when starting HAART increased from 170 cells per muL in 1995-96 to 269 cells per muL in 1998 but then decreased to around 200 cells per muL. In 1995-96, 58% achieved HIV-1 RNA of 500 copies per mL or less by 6 months compared with 83% in 2002-03. Compared with 1998, adjusted hazard ratios for AIDS were 1.07 (95% CI 0.84-1.36) in 1995-96 and 1.35 (1.06-1.71) in 2002-03. Corresponding figures for death were 0.87 (0.56-1.36) and 0.96 (0.61-1.51).

INTERPRETATION

Virological response after starting HAART improved over calendar years, but such improvement has not translated into a decrease in mortality.