Global prevalence, treatment, and prevention of hepatitis B virus infection in 2016: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

The 69th World Health Assembly approved the Global Health Sector Strategy to eliminate viral hepatitis by 2030. Although no virological cure exists for hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, existing therapies to control viral replication and prophylaxis to minimise mother-to-child transmission make elimination of HBV feasible. We aimed to estimate the national, regional, and global prevalence of HBsAg in the general population and in the population aged 5 years in 2016, as well as coverage of prophylaxis, diagnosis, and treatment.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we used a Delphi process that included a literature review in PubMed and Embase, followed by interviews with experts, to quantify the historical epidemiology of HBV infection. We then used a dynamic HBV transmission and progression model to estimate the country-level and regional-level prevalence of HBsAg in 2016 and the effect of prophylaxis and treatment on disease burden.

FINDINGS

We developed models for 120 countries, 78 of which were populated with data approved by experts. Using these models, we estimated that the global prevalence of HBsAg in 2016 was 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·4-4·6), corresponding to 291 992 000 (251 513 000-341 114 000) infections. Of these infections, around 29 million (10%) were diagnosed, and only 4·8 million (5%) of 94 million individuals eligible for treatment actually received antiviral therapy. Around 1·8 (1·6-2·2) million infections were in children aged 5 years, with a prevalence of 1·4% (1·2-1·6). We estimated that 87% of infants had received the three-dose HBV vaccination in the first year of life, 46% had received timely birth-dose vaccination, and 13% had received hepatitis B immunoglobulin along with the full vaccination regimen. Less than 1% of mothers with a high viral load had received antiviral therapy to reduce mother-to-child transmission.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimate of HBV prevalence in 2016 differs from previous studies, potentially because we took into account the effect of infant prophylaxis and early childhood vaccination, as well as changing prevalence over time. Although some regions are well on their way to meeting prophylaxis and prevalence targets, all regions must substantially scale-up access to diagnosis and treatment to meet the global targets.

FUNDING

John C Martin Foundation.

Life expectancies of South African adults starting antiretroviral treatment: collaborative analysis of cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Few estimates exist of the life expectancy of HIV-positive adults receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART) in low- and middle-income countries. We aimed to estimate the life expectancy of patients starting ART in South Africa and compare it with that of HIV-negative adults.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Data were collected from six South African ART cohorts. Analysis was restricted to 37,740 HIV-positive adults starting ART for the first time. Estimates of mortality were obtained by linking patient records to the national population register. Relative survival models were used to estimate the excess mortality attributable to HIV by age, for different baseline CD4 categories and different durations. Non-HIV mortality was estimated using a South African demographic model. The average life expectancy of men starting ART varied between 27.6 y (95% CI: 25.2-30.2) at age 20 y and 10.1 y (95% CI: 9.3-10.8) at age 60 y, while estimates for women at the same ages were substantially higher, at 36.8 y (95% CI: 34.0-39.7) and 14.4 y (95% CI: 13.3-15.3), respectively. The life expectancy of a 20-y-old woman was 43.1 y (95% CI: 40.1-46.0) if her baseline CD4 count was ≥ 200 cells/µl, compared to 29.5 y (95% CI: 26.2-33.0) if her baseline CD4 count was <50 cells/µl. Life expectancies of patients with baseline CD4 counts ≥ 200 cells/µl were between 70% and 86% of those in HIV-negative adults of the same age and sex, and life expectancies were increased by 15%-20% in patients who had survived 2 y after starting ART. However, the analysis was limited by a lack of mortality data at longer durations.

CONCLUSIONS

South African HIV-positive adults can have a near-normal life expectancy, provided that they start ART before their CD4 count drops below 200 cells/µl. These findings demonstrate that the near-normal life expectancies of HIV-positive individuals receiving ART in high-income countries can apply to low- and middle-income countries as well. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Hepatitis C virus prevalence and level of intervention required to achieve the WHO targets for elimination in the European Union by 2030: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading cause of liver-related morbidity and mortality worldwide. In the European Union (EU), treatment and cure of HCV with direct-acting antiviral therapies began in 2014. WHO targets are to achieve a 65% reduction in liver-related deaths, a 90% reduction of new viral hepatitis infections, and 90% of patients with viral hepatitis infections being diagnosed by 2030. This study assessed the prevalence of HCV in the EU and the level of intervention required to achieve WHO targets for HCV elimination.

METHODS

We populated country Markov models for the 28 EU countries through a literature search of PubMed and Embase between Jan 1, 2000, and March 31, 2016, and a Delphi process to gain expert consensus and validate inputs. We aggregated country models to create a regional EU model. We used the EU model to forecast HCV disease progression (considering the effect of immigration) and developed a strategy to acehive WHO targets. We used weighted average sustained viral response rates and fibrosis restrictions to model the effect of current therapeutic guidelines. We used the EU model to forecast HCV disease progression (considering the effect of immigration) under current screening and therapeutic guidelines. Additionally, we back-calculated the total number of patients needing to be screened and treated to achieve WHO targets.

FINDINGS

We estimated the number of viraemic HCV infections in 2015 to be 3 238 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2 106 000-3 795 000) of a total population of 509 868 000 in the EU, equating to a prevalence of viraemic HCV of 0·64% (95% UI 0·41-0·74). We estimated that 1 180 000 (95% UI 1 003 000-1 357 000) people were diagnosed with viraemia (36·4%), 150 000 (12 000-180 000) were treated (4·6% of the total infected population or 12·7% of the diagnosed population), 133 000 (106 000-160 000) were cured (4·1%), and 57 900 (43 900-67 300) were newly infected (1·8%) in 2015. Additionally, 30 400 (26 600-42 500) HCV-positive immigrants entered the EU. To achieve WHO targets, unrestricted treatment needs to increase from 150 000 patients in 2015 to 187 000 patients in 2025 and diagnosis needs to increase from 88 800 new cases annually in 2015 to 180 000 in 2025.

INTERPRETATION

Given its advanced health-care infrastructure, the EU is uniquely poised to eliminate HCV; however, expansion of screening programmes is essential to increase treatment to achieve the WHO targets. A united effort, grounded in sound epidemiological evidence, will also be necessary.

FUNDING

Gilead Sciences.

Update of Clostridium difficile infection due to PCR ribotype 027 in Europe, 2008

Outbreaks of Clostridium difficile infections (CDI) with increased severity, high relapse rate and significant mortality have been related to the emergence of a new, hypervirulent C. difficile strain in North America and Europe. This emerging strain is referred to as PCR ribotype 027 (Type 027). Since 2005, individual countries have developed surveillance studies about the spread of type 027. C. difficile Type 027 has been reported in 16 European countries. It has been responsible for outbreaks in Belgium, Germany, Finland, France, Ireland, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Switzerland and the United Kingdom (England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland). It has also been detected in Austria, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Hungary, Poland and Spain. Three countries experienced imported patients with CDI due to Type 027 who acquired the infection abroad. The antimicrobial resistance pattern is changing, and outbreaks due to clindamycin-resistant ermB positive Type 027 strains have occurred in three European countries. Ongoing epidemiological surveillance of cases of CDI, with periodic characterisation of the strains involved, is required to detect clustering of cases in time and space and to monitor the emergence of new, highly virulent clones.

Estimating the impact of school closure on social mixing behaviour and the transmission of close contact infections in eight European countries

Background

Mathematical modelling of infectious disease is increasingly used to help guide public health policy. As directly transmitted infections, such as influenza and tuberculosis, require contact between individuals, knowledge about contact patterns is a necessary pre-requisite of accurate model predictions. Of particular interest is the potential impact of school closure as a means of controlling pandemic influenza (and potentially other pathogens).

Methods

This paper uses a population-based prospective survey of mixing patterns in eight European countries to study the relative change in the basic reproduction number (R₀ - the average number of secondary cases from a typical primary case in a fully susceptible population) on weekdays versus weekends and during regular versus holiday periods. The relative change in R₀ during holiday periods and weekends gives an indication of the impact collective school closures (and prophylactic absenteeism) may have during a pandemic.

Results

Social contact patterns differ substantially when comparing weekdays to the weekend and regular to holiday periods mainly due to the reduction in work and/or school contacts. For most countries the basic reproduction number decreases from the week to weekends and regular to holiday periods by about 21% and 17%, respectively. However for other countries no significant decrease was observed.

Conclusion

We use a large-scale social contact survey in eight different European countries to gain insights in the relative change in the basic reproduction number on weekdays versus weekends and during regular versus holiday periods. The resulting estimates indicate that school closure can have a substantial impact on the spread of a newly emerging infectious disease that is transmitted via close (non sexual) contacts.

The comparative sero-epidemiology of varicella zoster virus in 11 countries in the European region

The European sero-epidemiology network (ESEN2) aims to standardise serological surveillance of varicella zoster virus (VZV) in 11 participant countries. In each country, serum banks were collected between 1996 and 2003 and tested for VZV antibodies. Assay results were standardised so that international comparisons could be made. Age-specific forces of infection were calculated for three age groups (<5, 5-9 and >or=10 years of age) and used to estimate the base reproduction number (R(0)) and the herd immunity threshold (H). Most VZV infection occurred in childhood, but there was a wide variation in transmissibility, with R(0) ranging from 16.9 in the Netherlands to 3.3 in Italy. Herd immunity thresholds varied from 70% in Italy to 94% in the Netherlands. There are substantial differences in VZV sero-epidemiology within the European region, which will need to be taken into account in designing national policies regarding VZV vaccination.

The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections with today's treatment paradigm - volume 2

Morbidity and mortality attributable to chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection are increasing in many countries as the infected population ages. Models were developed for 15 countries to quantify and characterize the viremic population, as well as estimate the number of new infections and HCV related deaths from 2013 to 2030. Expert consensus was used to determine current treatment levels and outcomes in each country. In most countries, viremic prevalence has already peaked. In every country studied, prevalence begins to decline before 2030, when current treatment levels were held constant. In contrast, cases of advanced liver disease and liver related deaths will continue to increase through 2030 in most countries. The current treatment paradigm is inadequate if large reductions in HCV related morbidity and mortality are to be achieved.

Hypertension and obesity in adults living in a high HIV prevalence rural area in South Africa

Hypertension and excess body weight are major risk factors of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in developing countries. In countries with a high HIV prevalence, it is unknown how increased antiretroviral treatment and care (ART) coverage has affected the prevalence of overweight, obesity, and hypertension. We conducted a health survey in 2010 based on the WHO STEPwise approach in 14,198 adult resident participants of a demographic surveillance area in rural South Africa to investigate factors associated with hypertension and excess weight including HIV infection and ART status. Women had a significantly higher median body mass index (BMI) than men (26.4 vs. 21.2 kg/m(2), p<0.001). The prevalence of obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m(2)) in women (31.3%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 30.2-32.4) was 6.5 times higher than in men (4.9%, 95% CI 4.1-5.7), whereas prevalence of hypertension (systolic or diastolic blood pressure ≥ 140 or 90 mm Hg, respectively) was 1.4 times higher in women than in men (28.5% vs 20.8%, p<0.001). In multivariable regression analysis, both hypertension and obesity were significantly associated with sex, age, HIV and ART status. The BMI of women and men on ART was on average 3.8 (95% CI 3.2-3.8) and 1.7 (95% CI 0.9-2.5) kg/m(2) lower than of HIV-negative women and men, respectively. The BMI of HIV-infected women and men not on ART was on average 1.2 (95% CI 0.8-1.6) and 0.4 (95% CI -0.1-0.9) kg/m(2) lower than of HIV-negative women and men, respectively. Obesity was a bigger risk factor for hypertension in men (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.99, 95% CI 2.00-4.48) than in women (aOR 1.64, 95% CI 1.39-1.92) and overweight (25 ≤ BMI<30) was a significant risk factor for men only (aOR 1.53 95% CI 1.14-2.06). Our study suggests that, cardiovascular risk factors of hypertension and obesity differ substantially between women and men in rural South Africa.

Using time-use data to parameterize models for the spread of close-contact infectious diseases

Social contact patterns are a critical explanatory factor of the spread of close-contact infectious agents. Both indirect (via observed epidemiologic data) and direct (via diaries that record at-risk events) approaches to the measurement of contacts by age have been proposed in the literature. In this paper, the authors discuss the possibilities offered by time-use surveys to measure contact patterns and to explain observed seroprevalence profiles. The authors first develop a methodology to estimate time-of-exposure matrices, and then they apply it to time-use data for the United States (1987-2003). Finally, the authors estimate age-specific transmission parameters for varicella, commonly known as "chickenpox," from age-specific time-of-exposure and seroprevalence data (United States, 1988-1994). The estimated time-of-exposure matrix reveals a strong element of assortativeness by age. In addition, there are peaks of exposure between people who were born one generation apart (i.e., parents and their children). Models based on the estimated age-specific transmission parameters fit the observed patterns of infection of endemically circulating varicella in a satisfactory way. The availability of time-use data for a large number of countries and their potential to supplement contact surveys make the methods developed extremely valuable and suitable for implementation in several different contexts.

Historical epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in select countries - volume 2

Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a leading cause of liver related morbidity and mortality. In many countries, there is a lack of comprehensive epidemiological data that are crucial in implementing disease control measures as new treatment options become available. Published literature, unpublished data and expert consensus were used to determine key parameters, including prevalence, viremia, genotype and the number of patients diagnosed and treated. In this study of 15 countries, viremic prevalence ranged from 0.13% in the Netherlands to 2.91% in Russia. The largest viremic populations were in India (8 666 000 cases) and Russia (4 162 000 cases). In most countries, males had a higher rate of infections, likely due to higher rates of injection drug use (IDU). Estimates characterizing the infected population are critical to focus screening and treatment efforts as new therapeutic options become available.

Outbreaks of monophasic Salmonella enterica serovar 4,[5],12:i:- in Luxembourg, 2006

A monophasic Salmonella enterica serovar 4,[5],12:i:- phage type DT193 emerged as the dominant serovar in Luxembourg in 2006, when it caused two major outbreaks involving 133 laboratory-confirmed human cases, 24 hospitalisations, and one death. The outbreak strain had an uncommon pulsed-field gel electrophoresis pattern STYMXB.0031 and antibiotic resistance profile ASSuT. A high proportion of cases were clustered in institutions for the elderly and in day-care centers. Strains identical to the outbreak strain were recovered from two control meals, a nappy changing table, retail sausages and caecal porcine samples at an abattoir. Locally produced pork meat is strongly suspected to have been the vehicle for the outbreaks, although the precise mechanisms remain unclear.

Modeling the impact of subclinical measles transmission in vaccinated populations with waning immunity

An increasing body of evidence suggests that a substantial proportion of individuals who respond to measles vaccine display an antibody boost accompanied by mild or no symptoms on exposure to wild virus. It is unknown whether this emerging class of individuals can support transmission. The epidemiologic consequences of vaccinated individuals able to transmit virus are investigated using a mathematical model. Parameters for this model are estimated using regression analysis on a Canadian serologic data set. The authors confirm that neutralizing antibodies are decaying significantly in absence of circulating virus. Based on a protective threshold plaque reduction neutralization (PRN) titer of 120, the authors estimate the mean duration of vaccine-induced protection in absence of reexposure to be 25 years (95% confidence interval (CI) 18, 48). After long-term absence of circulating virus, the mathematical model predicts that 80% (95% CI 65, 91) of all seroconverted vaccinees have titers below the protective threshold. In this case, elimination of measles virus cannot be achieved by a single-dose routine vaccination strategy if the basic reproduction number in vaccinated individuals exceeds 1.24 (95% CI 1.10, 1.53). For this reason, there is a need to establish the intensity and duration of infectiousness in vaccinated individuals.

Comparison of rubella seroepidemiology in 17 countries: progress towards international disease control targets

OBJECTIVE

To standardize serological surveillance to compare rubella susceptibility in Australia and 16 European countries, and measure progress towards international disease-control targets.

METHODS

Between 1996 and 2004, representative serum banks were established in 17 countries by collecting residual sera or community sampling. Serum banks were tested in each country and assay results were standardized. With a questionnaire, we collected information on current and past rubella vaccination programmes in each country. The percentage of seronegative (< 4 IU/ml) children (2-14 years of age) was used to evaluate rubella susceptibility, and countries were classified by seronegativity as group I (< 5%), group II (5-10%) or group III (> 10%). The proportion of women of childbearing age without rubella protection (< or = 10 IU/ml) was calculated and compared with WHO targets of < 5%.

FINDINGS

Only Romania had no rubella immunization programme at the time of the survey; the remaining countries had a two-dose childhood schedule using the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine. The percentage of susceptible children defined five countries as group I, seven as group II and four as group III. Women of childbearing age without rubella protection were < 5% in only five countries.

CONCLUSION

Despite the low reported incidence in many countries, strengthening the coverage of the routine two-dose of MMR vaccine among children is needed, especially in group III countries. Catch-up campaigns in older age groups and selective targeting of older females are needed in many countries to ensure necessary levels of protective immunity among women of childbearing age.

Towards elimination: measles susceptibility in Australia and 17 European countries

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate age-specific measles susceptibility in Australia and 17 European countries.

METHODS

As part of the European Sero-Epidemiology Network 2 (ESEN2), 18 countries collected large national serum banks between 1996 and 2004. These banks were tested for measles IgG and the results converted to a common unitage to enable valid intercountry comparisons. Historical vaccination and disease incidence data were also collected. Age-stratified population susceptibility levels were compared to WHO European Region targets for measles elimination of < 15% in those aged 2-4 years, < 10% in 5-9-year-olds and < 5% in older age groups.

FINDINGS

Seven countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Luxembourg, Spain, Slovakia, Slovenia and Sweden) met or came very close to the elimination targets. Four countries (Australia, Israel, Lithuania and Malta) had susceptibility levels above WHO targets in some older age groups indicating possible gaps in protection. Seven countries (Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, England and Wales, Ireland, Latvia and Romania) were deemed to be at risk of epidemics as a result of high susceptibility in children and also, in some cases, adults.

CONCLUSION

Although all countries now implement a two-dose measles vaccination schedule, if the WHO European Region target of measles elimination by 2010 is to be achieved higher routine coverage as well as vaccination campaigns in some older age cohorts are needed in some countries. Without these improvements, continued measles transmission and outbreaks are expected in Europe.

Modelling antibody response to measles vaccine and subsequent waning of immunity in a low exposure population

We analysed measles antibody data from 1141 vaccinated Canadian children aged 4-16 years to investigate factors associated with seropositivity and magnitude of prevailing antibody titres. We used a mixed Bernoulli/log-gamma model which takes account of the possibility of primary vaccine failures, of censored observations due to the lower detection limit of antibody assays and of a potentially skewed distribution of the logarithm of titres. While controlling for all significant variables, we observed that measles antibody titres decline at a mean rate of 5.6% per annum (approximate 95% CI; 3.3-7.7) equivalent to a half life of 12 years. Further, we noted a detectable linear relationship with respect to age at immunisation such that the mean increase in measles antibody titre of an infant who responds to vaccination gained by delaying vaccination from 12 to 18 months of age is 11.1% (approximate 95% CI; 4.4-18.3).

Strategies to manage hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection disease burden - volume 2

The hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic was forecasted through 2030 for 15 countries, and the relative impact of two scenarios was considered: (i) increased treatment efficacy while holding the treated population constant and (ii) increased treatment efficacy and increased annual treated population. Increasing levels of diagnosis and treatment, in combination with improved treatment efficacy, were critical for achieving substantial reductions in disease burden. In most countries, the annual treated population had to increase several fold to achieve the largest reductions in HCV-related morbidity and mortality. This suggests that increased capacity for screening and treatment will be critical in many countries. Birth cohort screening is a helpful tool for maximizing resources. In most of the studied countries, the majority of patients were born between 1945 and 1985.

Phylogenetic structure of European Salmonella Enteritidis outbreak correlates with national and international egg distribution network

Outbreaks of Salmonella Enteritidis have long been associated with contaminated poultry and eggs. In the summer of 2014 a large multi-national outbreak of Salmonella Enteritidis phage type 14b occurred with over 350 cases reported in the United Kingdom, Germany, Austria, France and Luxembourg. Egg supply network investigation and microbiological sampling identified the source to be a Bavarian egg producer. As part of the international investigation into the outbreak, over 400 isolates were sequenced including isolates from cases, implicated UK premises and eggs from the suspected source producer. We were able to show a clear statistical correlation between the topology of the UK egg distribution network and the phylogenetic network of outbreak isolates. This correlation can most plausibly be explained by different parts of the egg distribution network being supplied by eggs solely from independent premises of the Bavarian egg producer (Company X). Microbiological sampling from the source premises, traceback information and information on the interventions carried out at the egg production premises all supported this conclusion. The level of insight into the outbreak epidemiology provided by whole-genome sequencing (WGS) would not have been possible using traditional microbial typing methods.

Quantifying potential sources of surface water contamination with Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli

Campylobacter is the most common causative agent of human bacterial gastroenteritis and is frequently found in surface water, where it indicates recent contamination with animal faeces, sewage effluent, and agricultural run-off. The contribution of different animal reservoirs to surface water contamination with Campylobacter is largely unknown. In the Netherlands, the massive poultry culling to control the 2003 avian influenza epidemic coincided with a 44-50% reduction in human campylobacteriosis cases in the culling areas, suggesting substantial environment-mediated spread of poultry-borne Campylobacter. We inferred the origin of surface water Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli strains in Luxembourg and the Netherlands, as defined by multilocus sequence typing, by comparison to strains from poultry, pigs, ruminants, and wild birds, using the asymmetric island model for source attribution. Most Luxembourgish water strains were attributed to wild birds (61.0%), followed by poultry (18.8%), ruminants (15.9%), and pigs (4.3%); whereas the Dutch water strains were mainly attributed to poultry (51.7%), wild birds (37.3%), ruminants (9.8%), and pigs (1.2%). Attributions varied over seasons and surface water types, and geographical variation in the relative contribution of poultry correlated with the magnitude of poultry production at either the national or provincial level, suggesting that environmental dissemination of Campylobacter from poultry farms and slaughterhouses can be substantial in poultry-rich regions.

Estimation of the basic reproduction number of measles during an outbreak in a partially vaccinated population

From March to July 1996 a measles outbreak occurred in northern Luxembourg with 110 reported cases centered around two primary schools (85 cases) and the surrounding community (25 cases). Eighty four suspected cases were confirmed serologically. Vaccine coverage was estimated from questionnaire-based surveys at the two primary schools to be 70 and 76%, respectively. Vaccine efficacy during the outbreak was estimated to be 94.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) 90.4-97.0]. Using the information from the, school surveys, we obtained estimates of the basic reproduction number of measles of 7.7 (95% CI 4.4-11.0) and 6.2 (95% CI 3.5-8.9), respectively. Assuming a 95% vaccine efficacy, these estimates correspond to minimal vaccine coverages of 91.6% (95% CI 81.4-95.7) and 88.3% (95% CI 75.5-93.4) which would have been necessary to minimize the chances of a major outbreak occurring. We can confirm that major outbreaks in similar school settings can only be prevented if vaccination coverage exceeds 90%.

Seroprevalence of measles, mumps and rubella antibodies in Luxembourg: results from a national cross-sectional study

A serological prevalence survey was carried out in Luxembourg during 2000-2001 to determine the antibody status of the Luxembourg population against vaccine-preventable infections. Blood samples of children and adolescents were collected prospectively in randomly selected schools. Samples of adults were obtained through volunteer patients of the national health laboratory or of the mandatory pre-nuptial test. Measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) virus antibody concentrations were measured using commercial ELISA tests. Age-standardized prevalence of measles, mumps and rubella virus antibodies was found to be 96.58, 75.40 and 95.69% respectively. Significant age-dependence of serology was observed for all three infections, with study participants born after the introduction of the MMR vaccine experiencing a gradual decline of antibodies following vaccination in childhood. Older study participants who were more likely to have antibodies from natural infection had consistently higher titres than younger individuals. Present vaccination coverage with MMR appears to be sufficient to prevent large local outbreaks of measles and rubella, but probably not mumps.

Selection and characterization of a candidate therapeutic bacteriophage that lyses the Escherichia coli O104:H4 strain from the 2011 outbreak in Germany

In 2011, a novel strain of O104:H4 Escherichia coli caused a serious outbreak of foodborne hemolytic uremic syndrome and bloody diarrhea in Germany. Antibiotics were of questionable use and 54 deaths occurred. Candidate therapeutic bacteriophages that efficiently lyse the E. coli O104:H4 outbreak strain could be selected rather easily from a phage bank or isolated from the environment. It is argued that phage therapy should be more considered as a potential armament against the growing threat of (resistant) bacterial infections.

Haemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome: an analysis of the outbreaks in Belgium, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg in 2005

This article aims to describe the Haemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS) situation in 2005 in five neighbouring countries (Belgium, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg) and define the most affected areas. The 2005 HFRS outbreaks in these countries were the most significant in the region since 1990, with a total of 1,114 confirmed cases. The main feature of the epidemic was the extension of the known endemic area in several of the affected countries, with the involvement of urban areas for the first time. A significant increase in the number of cases was noted for the first time in the province of Liège in Belgium and in the Jura department in France.

Oseltamivir-resistant influenza A(H1N1) viruses detected in Europe during season 2007-8 had epidemiologic and clinical characteristics similar to co-circulating susceptible A(H1N1) viruses

During the 2007-08 influenza season, high levels of oseltamivir resistance were detected among influenza A(H1N1) viruses in a number of European countries. We used surveillance data to describe influenza A(H1N1) cases for whom antiviral resistance testing was performed. We pooled data from national studies to identify possible risk factors for infection with a resistant virus and to ascertain whether such infections led to influenza illness of different severity. Information on demographic and clinical variables was obtained from patients or their physicians. Odds ratios for infection with an oseltamivir resistant virus and relative risks for developing certain clinical outcomes were computed and adjusted through multivariable analysis. Overall, 727 (24.3%) of 2,992 tested influenza A(H1N1) viruses from 22 of 30 European countries were oseltamivir-resistant. Levels of resistance ranged from 1% in Italy to 67% in Norway. Five countries provided detailed case-based data on 373 oseltamivir resistant and 796 susceptible cases. By multivariable analysis, none of the analysed factors was significantly associated with an increased risk of infection with an oseltamivir-resistant virus. Similarly, infection with an oseltamivir-resistant virus was not significantly associated with a different risk of pneumonia, hospitalisation or any clinical complication. The large-scale emergence of oseltamivir-resistant viruses in Europe calls for a review of guidelines for influenza treatment.