A Toxicokinetic-Toxicodynamic Modeling Workflow Assessing the Quality of Input Mortality Data

Toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TKTD) models simulate organismal uptake and elimination of a substance (TK) and its effects on the organism (TD). The Reduced General Unified Threshold model of Survival (GUTS-RED) is a TKTD modeling framework that is well established for aquatic risk assessment to simulate effects on survival. The TKTD models are applied in three steps: parameterization based on experimental data (calibration), comparing predictions with independent data (validation), and prediction of endpoints under environmental scenarios. Despite a clear understanding of the sensitivity of GUTS-RED predictions to the model parameters, the influence of the input data on the quality of GUTS-RED calibration and validation has not been systematically explored. We analyzed the performance of GUTS-RED calibration and validation based on a unique, comprehensive data set, covering different types of substances, exposure patterns, and aquatic animal species taxa that are regularly used for risk assessment of plant protection products. We developed a software code to automatically calibrate and validate GUTS-RED against survival measurements from 59 toxicity tests and to calculate selected model evaluation metrics. To assess whether specific survival data sets were better suited for calibration or validation, we applied a design in which all possible combinations of studies for the same species-substance combination are used for calibration and validation. We found that uncertainty of calibrated parameters was lower when the full range of effects (i.e., from high survival to high mortality) was covered by input data. Increasing the number of toxicity studies used for calibration further decreased parameter uncertainty. Including data from both acute and chronic studies as well as studies under pulsed and constant exposure in model calibrations improved model predictions on different types of validation data. Using our results, we derived a workflow, including recommendations for the sequence of modeling steps from the selection of input data to a final judgment on the suitability of GUTS-RED for the data set. Environ Toxicol Chem 2024;43:197-210. © 2023 Bayer AG and The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

Aquatic macrophyte growth season in Central and Northern European Union and the implications for aquatic macrophyte risk assessments for herbicides

Under current European Union regulation, the risks to aquatic organisms must be assessed for uses of plant protection products (PPPs) that may result in exposure to the environment. For herbicidal PPPs, aquatic macrophytes are often the most sensitive taxa. For some herbicidal modes of action, macrophytes may be affected only while they are actively growing. For the risk assessment, it is therefore useful to know whether application timings would result in surface water exposure during periods when aquatic macrophytes are actively growing (therefore potentially resulting in effects). Toxicity endpoints, which are based on studies with active growth, may be overconservative in cases where exposure of PPPs will not co-occur with active macrophyte growth. A comprehensive literature search was performed, using systematic and manual approaches, with the aim of identifying the main active growth period for macrophytes in natural freshwater bodies in climates relevant to the Central and Northern zones of the European Union. The results of the searches were screened initially to identify all potentially relevant references, for which a full evaluation was then performed. Reliability was assessed using the principles of the Klimisch scoring system. As part of the full evaluation, growth periods were identified for each macrophyte species studied. Finally, the extracted growth periods were considered together to determine an overall active growth period for aquatic macrophytes representative of the Central and Northern EU zones. Based on this literature review, the active growth period identified for most aquatic macrophyte species representative of the Central and Northern EU zones is April to September. Relating to the regulatory implication of these results, it may be possible to conclude a low risk for aquatic macrophytes if the predicted surface water exposure period for certain PPPs is demonstrated to be outside the periods of active growth. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2023;00:1-15. © 2023 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

A framework for algae modelling in regulatory risk assessment

The use of toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TKTD) modelling in regulatory risk assessment of plant protection products is increasingly popular, especially since the 2018 EFSA opinion on TKTD modelling announced that several established models are ready for use in risk assessment. With careful adherence to the guidelines laid out by EFSA we present a stepwise approach to validation and use of the SAM-X algae model for regulatory submission in Tier 2C. We demonstrate how the use of moving time windows across time-variable exposure profiles can generate thousands of virtual laboratory mimic simulations that seamlessly predict the effects of time variable exposures across a full exposure profile while maintaining the laboratory conditions of the standard OECD growth inhibition test. Thus, every virtual laboratory test has a duration of 72 hours, with OECD medium and constant light and temperature conditions. The only deviation from the standard test setup is the replacement of constant exposure conditions for time variable concentrations. The present work demonstrates that for simulation of 72h toxicity tests, the nutrient dynamics in the SAM-X model are not required, and we propose the alternative use of a simplified model version. For risk assessment, in accordance with the EFSA guidelines we use a EP₅₀ of 10 as a threshold, meaning that if a time window within the exposure profile causes 50% growth inhibition when magnified by a factor of 10, the threshold will have been exceeded. We here present a simplified example for chlorotoluron and isoproturon. This case study brings to life our proposed framework for TKTD modelling of algae to establish whether a given exposure can be considered low risk.

Is HLA type a possible cancer risk modifier in Lynch syndrome?

Lynch syndrome (LS) is the most common inherited cancer syndrome. It is inherited via a monoallelic germline variant in one of the DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes. LS carriers have a broad 30% to 80% risk of developing various malignancies, and more precise, individual risk estimations would be of high clinical value, allowing tailored cancer prevention and surveillance. Due to MMR deficiency, LS cancers are characterized by the accumulation of frameshift mutations leading to highly immunogenic frameshift peptides (FSPs). Thus, immune surveillance is proposed to inhibit the outgrowth of MMR-deficient cell clones. Recent studies have shown that immunoediting during the evolution of MMR-deficient cancers leads to a counter-selection of highly immunogenic antigens. The immunogenicity of FSPs is dependent on the antigen presentation. One crucial factor determining antigen presentation is the HLA genotype. Hence, a LS carrier's HLA genotype plays an important role in the presentation of FSP antigens to the immune system, and may influence the likelihood of progression from precancerous lesions to cancer. To address the challenge of clarifying this possibility including diverse populations with different HLA types, we have established the INDICATE initiative (Individual cancer risk by HLA type, http://indicate-lynch.org/), an international network aiming at a systematic evaluation of the HLA genotype as a possible cancer risk modifier in LS. Here we summarize the current knowledge on the role of HLA type in cancer risk and outline future research directions to delineate possible association in the scenario of LS with genetically defined risk population and highly immunogenic tumors.

Keratin films for ocular surface reconstruction: Wound healing in an in-vivo model

The most commonly used tissue substitute for ocular surface reconstruction is human amniotic membrane (AM). Because of its low biomechanical strength and intransparency there is a need to search for alternatives of consistent quality. This study, further explored the biocompatibility of Keratin Film (KF) and its ability to sustain corneal epithelial wound healing. In three equal groups of 5 New Zeeland white rabbits a 4 mm superficial keratectomy was created in the right eye. Five eyes received a KF, five a human AM graft and the remaining five no implant. All eyes were treated with ofloxacin and dexamethasone eye drops and followed up for 10 days. Corneal fluorescein staining, vascularization, and transparency were assessed using slit lamp biomicroscopy according to a standardized grading score during and at the end of follow-up. The corneal-scleral-button was excised and processed for histology. After 10 days all eyes which had received a KF showed complete epithelial healing and no signs of neovascularization. In the AM group 1 eye showed a persistent epithelial defect at day 10 and 2 eyes showed neovascularization at day 7 resolving at day 10. Transparency improved progressively both in the KF group as well as in the AM group towards the end of the follow. Histology showed a multilayer epithelium firmly adherent to the KF with no evidence of keratocyte migration or inflammatory reaction in the corneal stroma. In this study on rabbit eyes KF better supported corneal epithelial wound healing than amniotic membrane.

A simple approach for detecting HLA-A*02 alleles in archival formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue samples and an application example for studying cancer immunoediting

The HLA system represents a central component of the antigen presentation machinery. As every patient possesses a defined set of HLA molecules, only certain antigens can be presented on the cell surface. Thus, studying HLA type-dependent antigen presentation can improve the understanding of variation in susceptibility to various diseases, including infectious diseases and cancer. In archival formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissue, the HLA type is difficult to analyze because of fragmentation of DNA, hindering the application of commonly used assays that rely on long DNA stretches. Addressing these difficulties, we present a refined approach for characterizing presence or absence of HLA-A*02, the most common HLA-A allele in the Caucasian population, in archival samples. We validated our genotyping strategy in a cohort of 90 samples with HLA status obtained by an NGS-based method. 90% (n = 81) of the samples could be analyzed with the approach. For all of them, the presence or absence of HLA-A*02 alleles was correctly determined with the method, demonstrating 100% sensitivity and specificity (95% CI: 91.40%-100% and 91.19%-100%). Furthermore, we provide an example of application in an independent cohort of 73 FFPE microsatellite-unstable (MSI) colorectal cancer samples. As MSI cancer cells encompass a high number of mutations in coding microsatellites, leading to the generation of highly immunogenic frameshift peptide antigens, they are ideally suited for studying relations between the mutational landscape of tumor cells and interindividual differences in the immune system, including the HLA genotype. Overall, our method can help to promote studying HLA type-dependency during the pathogenesis of a wide range of diseases, making archival and historic tissue samples accessible for identifying HLA-A*02 alleles.

A generic avian physiologically-based kinetic (PBK) model and its application in three bird species

Physiologically-based kinetic (PBK) models are effective tools for designing toxicological studies and conducting extrapolations to inform hazard characterization in risk assessment by filling data gaps and defining safe levels of chemicals. In the present work, a generic avian PBK model for male and female birds was developed using PK-Sim and MoBi from the Open Systems Pharmacology Suite (OSPS). The PBK model includes an ovulation model (egg development) to predict concentrations of chemicals in eggs from dietary exposure. The model was parametrized for chicken (Gallus gallus), bobwhite quail (Colinus virginianus) and mallard duck (Anas platyrhynchos) and was tested with nine chemicals for which in vivo studies were available. Time-concentration profiles of chemicals reaching tissues and egg compartment were simulated and compared to in vivo data. The overall accuracy of the PBK model predictions across the analyzed chemicals was good. Model simulations were found to be in the range of 22-79% within a 3-fold and 41-89% were within 10- fold deviation of the in vivo observed data. However, for some compounds scarcity of in-vivo data and inconsistencies between published studies allowed only a limited goodness of fit evaluation. The generic avian PBK model was developed following a "best practice" workflow describing how to build a PBK model for novel species. The credibility and reproducibility of the avian PBK models were scored by evaluation according to the available guidance documents from WHO (2010), and OECD (2021), to increase applicability, confidence and acceptance of these in silico models in chemical risk assessment.

Cost-effectiveness of varying degrees and models of therapist-assisted transdiagnostic internet-delivered cognitive behaviour therapy: Evidence from a randomized controlled trial

In routine care, Internet-delivered Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (ICBT) is often delivered with therapist support via emails/phone calls, but the cost-effectiveness of varying amounts of therapist support or having therapists specialized in ICBT is not known. This study compared the cost-effectiveness of specialized therapists providing ICBT support once-weekly (1WS) versus providing support once-weekly supplemented with a one-business-day response to patient emails (1W/1BD-S). We further compared the cost-effectiveness of 1W support offered by therapists employed in a specialized clinic (1WS) versus community clinics where therapists primarily deliver face-to-face therapy (1WC). Patients were randomly allocated to groups: 1WS group (n = 216), 1W/1BD-S group (n = 233), and 1WC group (n = 226). At baseline, 12, 24 and 52-week follow-up, patients completed the Treatment Inventory of Costs in Patients with Psychiatric Disorders questionnaire (TiC-P) adapted for use in Canada to assess healthcare use and productivity losses. Additionally, to assess Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) gained, patients completed the EQ-5D-5L at the same time periods. We quantified uncertainties by one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis and reported Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER), cost-effectiveness planes and acceptability curves. Cost-effectiveness over 52 weeks was CAD 3072/QALY for 1WC, CAD 3244/QALY for 1W/1BD-S, and CAD 3528/QALY for 1WS. Our model suggests that 1WS is the best strategy since the incremental cost per QALY is below the $50,000 threshold (ICER is CAD 42,328/QALY compared to the next most effective, 1WC). 1W/1BD-S is dominated by the other strategies. The cost-effectiveness acceptability curves suggest that the 1WS group has a higher probability for cost-effectiveness (38 %) than 1W/1BD-S (30 %) and 1WC (32 %) when the willingness to pay is $50,000 per QALY. These results have important implications for health policymakers deciding on delivery of ICBT for the treatment of anxiety and/depressive disorders.

TWAc-Check: A New Approach to Determine the Appropriate Use of Time-Weighted Average Concentration in Aquatic Risk Assessment

In pesticide risk assessment, regulatory acceptable concentrations for surface water bodies (RACsw,ch) are used that are derived from standard studies with continuous exposure of organisms to a test compound for days or months. These RACsw,ch are compared with the maximum tested concentration of more realistic exposure scenarios. However, the actual exposure duration could be notably shorter (e.g., hours) than the standard study, which intentionally leads to an overly conservative Tier 1 risk assessment. This discrepancy can be addressed in a risk assessment using the time-weighted average concentration (TWAc). In Europe, the applicability of TWAc for a particular risk assessment is evaluated using a complex decision scheme, which has been controversial; thus we propose an alternative approach: We used TWAc-check (which is based on the idea that the TWAc concept is just a model for aquatic risk assessment) to test whether the use of a TWAc is appropriate for such assessment. The TWAc-check method works by using predicted-measured diagrams to test how well the TWAc model predicts experimental data from peak exposure experiments. Overestimated effects are accepted because the conservatism of the TWAc model is prioritized over the goodness of fit. We illustrate the applicability of TWAc-check by applying it to various data sets for different species and substances. We demonstrate that the applicability is case dependent. Specifically, TWAc-check correctly identifies that the use of TWAc is not appropriate for early onset of effects or delayed effects. The proposed concept shows that the time window is a decisive factor as to whether or not the model is acceptable and that this concept can be used as a potential refinement option prior to the use of toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models. Environ Toxicol Chem 2022;41:1778-1787. © 2022 Bayer AG. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

Quantitative Morphometric, Physiological, and Metabolic Characteristics of Chickens and Mallards for Physiologically Based Kinetic Model Development

Physiologically based kinetic (PBK) models are a promising tool for xenobiotic environmental risk assessment that could reduce animal testing by predicting in vivo exposure. PBK models for birds could further our understanding of species-specific sensitivities to xenobiotics, but would require species-specific parameterization. To this end, we summarize multiple major morphometric and physiological characteristics in chickens, particularly laying hens (Gallus gallus) and mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) in a meta-analysis of published data. Where such data did not exist, data are substituted from domesticated ducks (Anas platyrhynchos) and, in their absence, from chickens. The distribution of water between intracellular, extracellular, and plasma is similar in laying hens and mallards. Similarly, the lengths of the components of the small intestine (duodenum, jejunum, and ileum) are similar in chickens and mallards. Moreover, not only are the gastrointestinal absorptive areas similar in mallard and chickens but also they are similar to those in mammals when expressed on a log basis and compared to log body weight. In contrast, the following are much lower in laying hens than mallards: cardiac output (CO), hematocrit (Hct), and blood hemoglobin. There are shifts in ovary weight (increased), oviduct weight (increased), and plasma/serum concentrations of vitellogenin and triglyceride between laying hens and sexually immature females. In contrast, reproductive state does not affect the relative weights of the liver, kidneys, spleen, and gizzard.

Quantitative Comparison of Avian and Mammalian Physiologies for Parameterization of Physiologically Based Kinetic Models

Physiologically based kinetic (PBK) models facilitate chemical risk assessment by predicting in vivo exposure while reducing the need for animal testing. PBK models for mammals have seen significant progress, which has yet to be achieved for avian systems. Here, we quantitatively compare physiological, metabolic and anatomical characteristics between birds and mammals, with the aim of facilitating bird PBK model development. For some characteristics, there is considerable complementarity between avian and mammalian species with identical values for the following: blood hemoglobin and hemoglobin concentrations per unit erythrocyte volume together with relative weights of the liver, heart, and lungs. There are also systematic differences for some major characteristics between avian and mammalian species including erythrocyte volume, plasma concentrations of albumin, total protein and triglyceride together with liver cell size and relative weights of the kidney, spleen, and ovary. There are also major differences between characteristics between sexually mature and sexually immature female birds. For example, the relative weights of the ovary and oviduct are greater in sexually mature females compared to immature birds as are the plasma concentrations of triglyceride and vitellogenin. Both these sets of differences reflect the genetic "blue print" inherited from ancestral archosaurs such as the production of large eggs with yolk filled oocytes surrounded by egg white proteins, membranes and a calciferous shell together with adaptions for flight in birds or ancestrally in flightless birds.

A23 ESTIMATING INDIRECT AND OUT-OF-POCKET COSTS IN PEDIATRIC INFLAMMATORY BOWEL DISEASE: A NATION-WIDE CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSIS

Background

Identifying disease-related costs is a crucial step to plan for proper allocation of resources and future healthcare services for persons with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Data on pediatric inflammatory bowel disease-associated costs are limited.

Aims

We aimed to estimate indirect and out of pocket (OOP) pediatric IBD-associated costs in Canada.

Methods

In a nation-wide cross-sectional analysis, caregivers of children and young adults (<17 years) with IBD were invited to complete a questionnaire on lost work hours and OOP costs related to IBD in the 4 weeks prior to the survey. Participants were re-invited to periodically answer the same questionnaire every 3–9 months for 2 years. Lost productivity was calculated using the Human Capital method. Costs were reported in 2018 inflation-adjusted Canadian dollars. Predictors of high cost users (top 25%) were examined using negative binomial regression.

Results

Consecutive 243 (82 incident cases) of 262 (92.7%) approached participants completed the first survey with a total of 450 surveys longitudinally completed over 2 years. The annual median indirect costs per patient were $5,951 (IQR $1,812- $12,278), with $5,776 (IQR $1,465-$11,733) for Crohn’s disease (CD) and $6,084 (IQR $2,470-$13,371) for ulcerative colitis (UC) (p=0.77). The annual median per patient OOP costs were $2,925 (IQR $978- $8,125) with $3,021 (IQR $978- $8,125) for CD and $2,600 (IQR $975- $8,125) for UC (p=0.55). Older age (10-17y) at diagnosis (p=0.04) and parents in part-time employment (p=0.01) were predictors of higher indirect costs, while female sex (p<0.001), parents with a lower education level (p<0.001) and lower annual family income (p<0.01) were associated with higher OOP costs.

Conclusions

Indirect and OOP IBD-associated costs are substantial and more likely to affect families with unstable employment and lower annual income. Examining different strategies and interventions to reduce these costs such as virtual platforms, telephone and outreach clinics especially in poor communities and families with low annual income is warranted.

Funding Agencies

CIHRThe Children’s Hospital Research Institute of Manitoba

Beta-2-microglobulin Mutations Are Linked to a Distinct Metastatic Pattern and a Favorable Outcome in Microsatellite-Unstable Stage IV Gastrointestinal Cancers

Immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) shows remarkable clinical effects in patients with metastatic microsatellite-unstable (MSI) cancer. However, markers identifying potential non-responders are missing. We examined the prevalence of Beta-2-microglobulin (B2M) mutations, a common immune evasion mechanism, in stage IV MSI gastrointestinal cancer and its influence on metastatic pattern and patients’ survival under ICB. Twenty-five patients with metastatic, MSI gastrointestinal adenocarcinoma were included. Eighteen patients received ICB with pembrolizumab and one patient with nivolumab/ipilimumab. Sequencing was performed to determine B2M mutation status. B2M mutations and loss of B2M expression were detected in 6 out of 25 stage IV MSI cancers. B2M mutations were strongly associated with exclusively peritoneal/peritoneal and lymph node metastases (p=0.0055). However, no significant differences in therapy response (25% vs. 46.6%, p>0.99) and survival (median PFS: 19.5 vs 33.0 months, p=0.74; median OS 39 months vs. not reached, p>0.99) were observed between B2M-mutant and B2M-wild type tumor patients. Among metastatic MSI GI cancers, B2M-mutant tumors represent a biologically distinct disease with distinct metastatic patterns. To assess ICB response in B2M-mutant MSI cancer patients, future studies need to account for the fact that baseline survival of patients with B2M-mutant MSI cancer may be longer than of patients with B2M-wild type MSI cancer.

Multiple model triangulation to identify factors associated with lameness in British sheep flocks

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Multiple model triangulation identifies variables that are likely true positives.

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Triangulation increases confidence in which managements to recommend in practice.

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Effective management of ewes can lower prevalence of lameness in ewes and lambs.

Identification of factors associated with an outcome can be challenging when the number of explanatory variables is large in relation to the number of observations. Multiple model triangulation, where results from several model types are combined, improves the likelihood of identifying true predictor variables. The aim of this study was to use triangulation to identify covariates likely to be truly associated with the prevalence of lameness in sheep flocks in Great Britain.

Data were collected using a questionnaire sent to 3200 sheep farmers in Great Britain in 2018. The useable response rate was 14.1 %. The geometric mean prevalence of lameness was 1.4 % (95 % CI 1.2−1.7) for ewes, and 0.6 % (95 % CI 0.5−0.9) for lambs, however, approximately 60 % flocks had >2% prevalence of lameness in ewes.

Four model types were investigated, two generalised linear models (negative binomial and quasi-Poisson) built using stepwise selection, and two elastic net models (Poisson and Gaussian distributions) refined with selection stability estimation.

Triangulated covariates were those selected in three or all four models – 10 for ewes and 12 for lambs. Higher prevalence of lameness in ewes was associated with 5−100% feet bleeding during routine foot trimming compared with not foot trimming, footbathing the flock to treat severe footrot (SFR) and always using formalin in footbaths, both compared with not footbathing, using FootVax™ for <1 year compared with not using FootVax™, and never quarantining new or returning sheep to the farm for >3 weeks compared with always. Lower prevalence of lameness in ewes was associated with vaccinating with FootVax™ for >5 years compared with not vaccinating, peat soil compared with no peat soil, and having no lame ewes to treat.

Higher prevalence of lameness in lambs was associated with 5−100% feet bleeding during routine foot trimming, always foot trimming ewes with SFR, not knowingly selecting replacement ewes from ewes that were never lame compared with always, replacement sheep purchased and homebred compared with only homebred, treating lambs >3 days after recognition of lameness compared with 0-3 days and footbathing the flock to treat interdigital dermatitis compared with not footbathing at all. Lower prevalence of lameness in lambs was associated with peat soil, flocks in Scotland versus England, an altitude of >230−500 m compared with ≤230 m, never using antibiotic injection to treat lambs with SFR compared with always, and having no lame lambs to treat.

We conclude triangulation identified reliable management practices for farmers to implement to minimise lameness in sheep.

The shared frameshift mutation landscape of microsatellite-unstable cancers suggests immunoediting during tumor evolution

The immune system can recognize and attack cancer cells, especially those with a high load of mutation-induced neoantigens. Such neoantigens are abundant in DNA mismatch repair (MMR)-deficient, microsatellite-unstable (MSI) cancers. MMR deficiency leads to insertion/deletion (indel) mutations at coding microsatellites (cMS) and to neoantigen-inducing translational frameshifts. Here, we develop a tool to quantify frameshift mutations in MSI colorectal and endometrial cancer. Our results show that frameshift mutation frequency is negatively correlated to the predicted immunogenicity of the resulting peptides, suggesting counterselection of cell clones with highly immunogenic frameshift peptides. This correlation is absent in tumors with Beta-2-microglobulin mutations, and HLA-A*02:01 status is related to cMS mutation patterns. Importantly, certain outlier mutations are common in MSI cancers despite being related to frameshift peptides with functionally confirmed immunogenicity, suggesting a possible driver role during MSI tumor evolution. Neoantigens resulting from shared mutations represent promising vaccine candidates for prevention of MSI cancers.

Evaluation of VIDAS® Immuno-Concentration Salmonella/VIDAS Salmonella Immunoassay Method for Detection of Salmonella in Selected Foods: Collaborative Study

The VIDAS Immuno-concentration Salmonella (ICS)/VIDAS Salmonella (SLM) immunoassay method for the detection of Salmonella was compared to the Bacteriological Analytical Manual (BAM)/AOAC culture method in a collaborative study. Thirty-two laboratories participated in the evaluation. Each laboratory tested one or more of the 6 test products: milk chocolate, nonfat dry milk, dried whole egg, soy flour, ground black pepper, and ground raw turkey. The 2 methods were in agreement for 1266 of the 1440 samples. Of the 174 samples not in agreement, 69 were VIDAS ICS/SLM-positive and BAM/AOAC-negative and 105 were VIDAS ICS/SLM-negative and BAM/AOAC-positive.

Evaluation of VIDAS® Immuno-Concentration Salmonella Assay Plus Selective Plate Method (Hektoen Enteric, Bismuth Sulfite, Salmonella Identification) for Detection of Salmonella in Selected Foods: Collaborative Study

The VIDAS Immuno-concentration Salmonella (ICS) plus selective plate method (Hektoen enteric, bismuth sulfite, Salmonella identification) method for the detection of Salmonella was compared to the Bacteriological Analytical Manual (BAM)/AOAC culture method in a collaborative study. Thirty-two laboratories participated in the evaluation. Each laboratory tested one or more of the 6 test products: milk chocolate, nonfat dry milk, dried whole egg, soy flour, ground black pepper, and ground raw turkey. The 2 methods were in agreement for 1283 of the 1440 test samples. Of the 157 test samples not in agreement, 82 were VIDAS ICS plus selective plate-positive and BAM/AOAC-negative, and 75 were VIDAS ICS plus selective plate-negative and BAM/AOAC-positive.

Salmonella in Selected Foods by VIDAS® Immuno-Concentration Salmonella Plus Selective Plate Method (Hektoen Enteric, Xylose Lysine Desoxycholate, Bismuth Sulfite): Collaborative Study

The VIDAS Immuno-concentration Salmonella (ICS) plus selective plate method (Hektoen enteric, xylose lysine desoxycholate, bismuth sulfite) method for the detection of Salmonella was compared to the Bacteriological Analytical Manual (BAM)/AOAC culture method in a collaborative study. Thirty-two laboratories participated in the evaluation. Each laboratory tested one or more of the 6 test products: milk chocolate, nonfat dry milk, dried whole egg, soy flour, ground black pepper, and ground raw turkey. The 2 methods were in agreement for 1297 of the 1455 samples. Of the 158 samples not in agreement, 82 were VIDAS ICS plus selective plate-positive and BAM/AOAC-negative, and 76 were VIDAS ICS plus selective plate-negative and BAM/AOAC-positive.

VIDAS® Enzyme-Linked Immunofluorescent Assay for Detection of Listeria in Foods: Collaborative Study

The VIDAS LIS method and the traditional culture methods for detection of Listeria species in food were evaluated in a multilaboratory comparative study. The 6 foods tested were either naturally contaminated or inoculated with 3 different concentrations of Listeria. Results for each food and each contamination level with the VIDAS LIS method were as good as or better than those obtained with the traditional culture method. Of 1558 samples tested, 935 were positive: 839 by the VIDAS method and 809 by standard culture methods. Overall false negative rates were 10.3 and 13.5% for the VIDAS LIS and culture methods, respectively. The false positive rate for the VIDAS LIS assay was 1.4% based on 9 VIDAS LIS positive assays that did not confirm positive by isolation of Listeria. The agreement between the VIDAS LIS and culture methods for all samples tested was 86%.

CPR: ABC or CAB

No abstract available.

MODELING STREAMFLOW AND WATER QUALITY SENSITIVITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT IN 20 U.S. WATERSHEDS

Watershed modeling in 20 large, United States (U.S.) watersheds addresses gaps in our knowledge of streamflow, nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus), and sediment loading sensitivity to mid-21st Century climate change and urban/residential development scenarios. Use of a consistent methodology facilitates regional scale comparisons across the study watersheds. Simulations use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. Climate change scenarios are from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program dynamically downscaled climate model output. Urban and residential development scenarios are from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios project. Simulations provide a plausible set of streamflow and water quality responses to mid-21st Century climate change across the U.S. Simulated changes show a general pattern of decreasing streamflow volume in the central Rockies and Southwest, and increases on the East Coast and Northern Plains. Changes in pollutant loads follow a similar pattern but with increased variability. Ensemble mean results suggest that by the mid-21st Century, statistically significant changes in streamflow and total suspended solids loads (relative to baseline conditions) are possible in roughly 30-40% of study watersheds. These proportions increase to around 60% for total phosphorus and total nitrogen loads. Projected urban/residential development, and watershed responses to development, are small at the large spatial scale of modeling in this study.

Evaluation of the magnitude and location of Cam deformity using three dimensional CT analysis

The cam-type deformity in femoroacetabular impingement is a 3D deformity. Single measurements using radiographs, CT or MRI may not provide a true estimate of the magnitude of the deformity. We performed an analysis of the size and location of measurements of the alpha angle (α°) using a CT technique which could be applied to the 3D reconstructions of the hip. Analysis was undertaken in 42 patients (57 hips; 24 men and 18 women; mean age 38 years (16 to 58)) who had symptoms of femoroacetabular impingement related to a cam-type abnormality. An α° of > 50° was considered a significant indicator of cam-type impingement. Measurements of the α° were made at different points around the femoral head/neck junction at intervals of 30°: starting at the nine o’clock (posterior), ten, eleven and twelve o’clock (superior), one, two and ending at three o’clock (anterior) position.

The mean maximum increased α° was 64.6° (50.8° to 86°). The two o’clock position was the most common point to find an increased α° (53 hips; 93%), followed by one o’clock (48 hips; 84%). The largest α° for each hip was found most frequently at the two o’clock position (46%), followed by the one o’clock position (39%). Generally, raised α angles extend over three segments of the clock face.

Single measurements of the α°, whether pre- or post-operative, should be viewed with caution as they may not be representative of the true size of the deformity and not define whether adequate correction has been achieved following surgery.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2014;96-B:1167–71.

Identification of new IκBα complexes by an iterative experimental and mathematical modeling approach

The transcription factor nuclear factor kappa-B (NFκB) is a key regulator of pro-inflammatory and pro-proliferative processes. Accordingly, uncontrolled NFκB activity may contribute to the development of severe diseases when the regulatory system is impaired. Since NFκB can be triggered by a huge variety of inflammatory, pro-and anti-apoptotic stimuli, its activation underlies a complex and tightly regulated signaling network that also includes multi-layered negative feedback mechanisms. Detailed understanding of this complex signaling network is mandatory to identify sensitive parameters that may serve as targets for therapeutic interventions. While many details about canonical and non-canonical NFκB activation have been investigated, less is known about cellular IκBα pools that may tune the cellular NFκB levels. IκBα has so far exclusively been described to exist in two different forms within the cell: stably bound to NFκB or, very transiently, as unbound protein. We created a detailed mathematical model to quantitatively capture and analyze the time-resolved network behavior. By iterative refinement with numerous biological experiments, we yielded a highly identifiable model with superior predictive power which led to the hypothesis of an NFκB-lacking IκBα complex that contains stabilizing IKK subunits. We provide evidence that other but canonical pathways exist that may affect the cellular IκBα status. This additional IκBα:IKKγ complex revealed may serve as storage for the inhibitor to antagonize undesired NFκB activation under physiological and pathophysiological conditions.

In unstimulated cells, the transcription factor NFκB resides in the cytosol bound to its inhibitor IκBα. Canonical activation of NFκB by numerous stimuli leads to proteasomal depletion of IκBα, thereby liberating NFκB to translocate into the nucleus to induce transcription of genes leading to proliferation, angiogenesis, metastasis, or chronic inflammation. Consequently, only transient activity needs to be warranted by immediate NFκB-dependent induction of negative regulatory mechanisms, including up-regulation of its inhibitor IκBα. Resynthesized IκBα consequently terminates NFκB activity by binding to its nuclear localization sequence. However, under physiological or pathophysiological conditions, random NFκB activation may occur, which needs to be avoided in order to guarantee proper cellular function. Using detailed dynamical modeling, we have now identified an additional IκBα containing complex to exist in un-stimulated cells which lacks NFκB but includes IKKγ (IκBα:IKKγ complex). This additional IκBα is not depleted from cells in the canonical fashion and may therefore serve as a cellular backup to avoid random NFκB activation.