Changes in global terrestrial live biomass over the 21st century

Live woody vegetation is the largest reservoir of biomass carbon, with its restoration considered one of the most effective natural climate solutions. However, terrestrial carbon fluxes remain the largest uncertainty in the global carbon cycle. Here, we develop spatially explicit estimates of carbon stock changes of live woody biomass from 2000 to 2019 using measurements from ground, air, and space. We show that live biomass has removed 4.9 to 5.5 PgC year^-1 from the atmosphere, offsetting 4.6 ± 0.1 PgC year^-1 of gross emissions from disturbances and adding substantially (0.23 to 0.88 PgC year^-1) to the global carbon stocks. Gross emissions and removals in the tropics were four times larger than temperate and boreal ecosystems combined. Although live biomass is responsible for more than 80% of gross terrestrial fluxes, soil, dead organic matter, and lateral transport may play important roles in terrestrial carbon sink.

Fire decline in dry tropical ecosystems enhances decadal land carbon sink

The terrestrial carbon sink has significantly increased in the past decades, but the underlying mechanisms are still unclear. The current synthesis of process-based estimates of land and ocean sinks requires an additional sink of 0.6 PgC yr-1 in the last decade to explain the observed airborne fraction. A concurrent global fire decline was observed in association with tropical agriculture expansion and landscape fragmentation. Here we show that a decline of 0.2 ± 0.1 PgC yr-1 in fire emissions during 2008-2014 relative to 2001-2007 also induced an additional carbon sink enhancement of 0.4 ± 0.2 PgC yr-1 attributable to carbon cycle feedbacks, amounting to a combined sink increase comparable to the 0.6 PgC yr-1 budget imbalance. Our results suggest that the indirect effects of fire, in addition to the direct emissions, is an overlooked mechanism for explaining decadal-scale changes in the land carbon sink and highlight the importance of fire management in climate mitigation.

Earth's water reservoirs in a changing climate

Progress towards achieving a quantitative understanding of the exchanges of water between Earth's main water reservoirs is reviewed with emphasis on advances accrued from the latest advances in Earth Observation from space. These exchanges of water between the reservoirs are a result of processes that are at the core of important physical Earth-system feedbacks, which fundamentally control the response of Earth's climate to the greenhouse gas forcing it is now experiencing, and are therefore vital to understanding the future evolution of Earth's climate. The changing nature of global mean sea level (GMSL) is the context for discussion of these exchanges. Different sources of satellite observations that are used to quantify ice mass loss and water storage over continents, how water can be tracked to its source using water isotope information and how the waters in different reservoirs influence the fluxes of water between reservoirs are described. The profound influence of Earth's hydrological cycle, including human influences on it, on the rate of GMSL rise is emphasized. The many intricate ways water cycle processes influence water exchanges between reservoirs and thus sea-level rise, including disproportionate influences by the tiniest water reservoirs, are emphasized.

Prospects for observing and localizing gravitational-wave transients with Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA

We present our current best estimate of the plausible observing scenarios for the Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA gravitational-wave detectors over the next several years, with the intention of providing information to facilitate planning for multi-messenger astronomy with gravitational waves. We estimate the sensitivity of the network to transient gravitational-wave signals for the third (O3), fourth (O4) and fifth observing (O5) runs, including the planned upgrades of the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. We study the capability of the network to determine the sky location of the source for gravitational-wave signals from the inspiral of binary systems of compact objects, that is binary neutron star, neutron star-black hole, and binary black hole systems. The ability to localize the sources is given as a sky-area probability, luminosity distance, and comoving volume. The median sky localization area (90% credible region) is expected to be a few hundreds of square degrees for all types of binary systems during O3 with the Advanced LIGO and Virgo (HLV) network. The median sky localization area will improve to a few tens of square degrees during O4 with the Advanced LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA (HLVK) network. During O3, the median localization volume (90% credible region) is expected to be on the order of 10 5 , 10 6 , 10 7 Mpc 3 for binary neutron star, neutron star-black hole, and binary black hole systems, respectively. The localization volume in O4 is expected to be about a factor two smaller than in O3. We predict a detection count of 1 - 1 + 12 ( 10 - 10 + 52 ) for binary neutron star mergers, of 0 - 0 + 19 ( 1 - 1 + 91 ) for neutron star-black hole mergers, and 17 - 11 + 22 ( 79 - 44 + 89 ) for binary black hole mergers in a one-calendar-year observing run of the HLV network during O3 (HLVK network during O4). We evaluate sensitivity and localization expectations for unmodeled signal searches, including the search for intermediate mass black hole binary mergers.

Tests of General Relativity with GW170817

The recent discovery by Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo of a gravitational wave signal from a binary neutron star inspiral has enabled tests of general relativity (GR) with this new type of source. This source, for the first time, permits tests of strong-field dynamics of compact binaries in the presence of matter. In this Letter, we place constraints on the dipole radiation and possible deviations from GR in the post-Newtonian coefficients that govern the inspiral regime. Bounds on modified dispersion of gravitational waves are obtained; in combination with information from the observed electromagnetic counterpart we can also constrain effects due to large extra dimensions. Finally, the polarization content of the gravitational wave signal is studied. The results of all tests performed here show good agreement with GR.

Modeling Study of the Air Quality Impact of Record-Breaking Southern California Wildfires in December 2017

We investigate the air quality impact of record-breaking wildfires in Southern California during 5-18 December 2017 using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry in combination with satellite and surface observations. This wildfire event was driven by dry and strong offshore Santa Ana winds, which played a critical role in fire formation and air pollutant transport. By utilizing fire emissions derived from the high-resolution (375 × 375 m²) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite active fire detections, the simulated magnitude and temporal evolution of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentrations agree reasonably well with surface observations (normalized mean bias = 4.0%). Meanwhile, the model could generally capture the spatial pattern of aerosol optical depth from satellite observations. Sensitivity tests reveal that using a high spatial resolution for fire emissions and a reasonable treatment of plume rise (a fair split between emissions injected at surface and those lifted to upper levels) is important for achieving decent PM_2.5 simulation results. Biases in PM_2.5 simulation are relatively large (about 50%) during the period with the strongest Santa Ana wind, due to a possible underestimation of burning area and uncertainty in wind field variation. The 2017 December fire event increases the 14-day averaged PM_2.5 concentrations by up to 231.2 μg/m³ over the downwind regions, which substantially exceeds the U.S. air quality standards, potentially leading to adverse health impacts. The human exposure to fire-induced PM_2.5 accounts for 14-42% of the annual total PM_2.5 exposure in areas impacted by the fire plumes.

Constraining the p-Mode-g-Mode Tidal Instability with GW170817

We analyze the impact of a proposed tidal instability coupling p modes and g modes within neutron stars on GW170817. This nonresonant instability transfers energy from the orbit of the binary to internal modes of the stars, accelerating the gravitational-wave driven inspiral. We model the impact of this instability on the phasing of the gravitational wave signal using three parameters per star: an overall amplitude, a saturation frequency, and a spectral index. Incorporating these additional parameters, we compute the Bayes factor (lnB_{!pg}^{pg}) comparing our p-g model to a standard one. We find that the observed signal is consistent with waveform models that neglect p-g effects, with lnB_{!pg}^{pg}=0.03_{-0.58}^{+0.70} (maximum a posteriori and 90% credible region). By injecting simulated signals that do not include p-g effects and recovering them with the p-g model, we show that there is a ≃50% probability of obtaining similar lnB_{!pg}^{pg} even when p-g effects are absent. We find that the p-g amplitude for 1.4  M_{⊙} neutron stars is constrained to less than a few tenths of the theoretical maximum, with maxima a posteriori near one-tenth this maximum and p-g saturation frequency ∼70  Hz. This suggests that there are less than a few hundred excited modes, assuming they all saturate by wave breaking. For comparison, theoretical upper bounds suggest ≲10^{3} modes saturate by wave breaking. Thus, the measured constraints only rule out extreme values of the p-g parameters. They also imply that the instability dissipates ≲10^{51}  erg over the entire inspiral, i.e., less than a few percent of the energy radiated as gravitational waves.

Search for Subsolar-Mass Ultracompact Binaries in Advanced LIGO's First Observing Run

We present the first Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo search for ultracompact binary systems with component masses between 0.2  M_{⊙}-1.0  M_{⊙} using data taken between September 12, 2015 and January 19, 2016. We find no viable gravitational wave candidates. Our null result constrains the coalescence rate of monochromatic (delta function) distributions of nonspinning (0.2  M_{⊙}, 0.2  M_{⊙}) ultracompact binaries to be less than 1.0×10^{6}  Gpc^{-3}  yr^{-1} and the coalescence rate of a similar distribution of (1.0  M_{⊙}, 1.0  M_{⊙}) ultracompact binaries to be less than 1.9×10^{4}  Gpc^{-3}  yr^{-1} (at 90% confidence). Neither black holes nor neutron stars are expected to form below ∼1  M_{⊙} through conventional stellar evolution, though it has been proposed that similarly low mass black holes could be formed primordially through density fluctuations in the early Universe and contribute to the dark matter density. The interpretation of our constraints in the primordial black hole dark matter paradigm is highly model dependent; however, under a particular primordial black hole binary formation scenario we constrain monochromatic primordial black hole populations of 0.2  M_{⊙} to be less than 33% of the total dark matter density and monochromatic populations of 1.0  M_{⊙} to be less than 5% of the dark matter density. The latter strengthens the presently placed bounds from microlensing surveys of massive compact halo objects (MACHOs) provided by the MACHO and EROS Collaborations.

GW170817: Measurements of Neutron Star Radii and Equation of State

On 17 August 2017, the LIGO and Virgo observatories made the first direct detection of gravitational waves from the coalescence of a neutron star binary system. The detection of this gravitational-wave signal, GW170817, offers a novel opportunity to directly probe the properties of matter at the extreme conditions found in the interior of these stars. The initial, minimal-assumption analysis of the LIGO and Virgo data placed constraints on the tidal effects of the coalescing bodies, which were then translated to constraints on neutron star radii. Here, we expand upon previous analyses by working under the hypothesis that both bodies were neutron stars that are described by the same equation of state and have spins within the range observed in Galactic binary neutron stars. Our analysis employs two methods: the use of equation-of-state-insensitive relations between various macroscopic properties of the neutron stars and the use of an efficient parametrization of the defining function p(ρ) of the equation of state itself. From the LIGO and Virgo data alone and the first method, we measure the two neutron star radii as R_{1}=10.8_{-1.7}^{+2.0}  km for the heavier star and R_{2}=10.7_{-1.5}^{+2.1}  km for the lighter star at the 90% credible level. If we additionally require that the equation of state supports neutron stars with masses larger than 1.97  M_{⊙} as required from electromagnetic observations and employ the equation-of-state parametrization, we further constrain R_{1}=11.9_{-1.4}^{+1.4}  km and R_{2}=11.9_{-1.4}^{+1.4}  km at the 90% credible level. Finally, we obtain constraints on p(ρ) at supranuclear densities, with pressure at twice nuclear saturation density measured at 3.5_{-1.7}^{+2.7}×10^{34}  dyn cm^{-2} at the 90% level.

Methane on Mars and Habitability: Challenges and Responses

Recent measurements of methane (CH4) by the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) now confront us with robust data that demand interpretation. Thus far, the MSL data have revealed a baseline level of CH4 (∼0.4 parts per billion by volume [ppbv]), with seasonal variations, as well as greatly enhanced spikes of CH4 with peak abundances of ∼7 ppbv. What do these CH4 revelations with drastically different abundances and temporal signatures represent in terms of interior geochemical processes, or is martian CH4 a biosignature? Discerning how CH4 generation occurs on Mars may shed light on the potential habitability of Mars. There is no evidence of life on the surface of Mars today, but microbes might reside beneath the surface. In this case, the carbon flux represented by CH4 would serve as a link between a putative subterranean biosphere on Mars and what we can measure above the surface. Alternatively, CH4 records modern geochemical activity. Here we ask the fundamental question: how active is Mars, geochemically and/or biologically? In this article, we examine geological, geochemical, and biogeochemical processes related to our overarching question. The martian atmosphere and surface are an overwhelmingly oxidizing environment, and life requires pairing of electron donors and electron acceptors, that is, redox gradients, as an essential source of energy. Therefore, a fundamental and critical question regarding the possibility of life on Mars is, "Where can we find redox gradients as energy sources for life on Mars?" Hence, regardless of the pathway that generates CH4 on Mars, the presence of CH4, a reduced species in an oxidant-rich environment, suggests the possibility of redox gradients supporting life and habitability on Mars. Recent missions such as ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter may provide mapping of the global distribution of CH4. To discriminate between abiotic and biotic sources of CH4 on Mars, future studies should use a series of diagnostic geochemical analyses, preferably performed below the ground or at the ground/atmosphere interface, including measurements of CH4 isotopes, methane/ethane ratios, H2 gas concentration, and species such as acetic acid. Advances in the fields of Mars exploration and instrumentation will be driven, augmented, and supported by an improved understanding of atmospheric chemistry and dynamics, deep subsurface biogeochemistry, astrobiology, planetary geology, and geophysics. Future Mars exploration programs will have to expand the integration of complementary areas of expertise to generate synergistic and innovative ideas to realize breakthroughs in advancing our understanding of the potential of life and habitable conditions having existed on Mars. In this spirit, we conducted a set of interdisciplinary workshops. From this series has emerged a vision of technological, theoretical, and methodological innovations to explore the martian subsurface and to enhance spatial tracking of key volatiles, such as CH4.

Search for Tensor, Vector, and Scalar Polarizations in the Stochastic Gravitational-Wave Background

The detection of gravitational waves with Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo has enabled novel tests of general relativity, including direct study of the polarization of gravitational waves. While general relativity allows for only two tensor gravitational-wave polarizations, general metric theories can additionally predict two vector and two scalar polarizations. The polarization of gravitational waves is encoded in the spectral shape of the stochastic gravitational-wave background, formed by the superposition of cosmological and individually unresolved astrophysical sources. Using data recorded by Advanced LIGO during its first observing run, we search for a stochastic background of generically polarized gravitational waves. We find no evidence for a background of any polarization, and place the first direct bounds on the contributions of vector and scalar polarizations to the stochastic background. Under log-uniform priors for the energy in each polarization, we limit the energy densities of tensor, vector, and scalar modes at 95% credibility to Ω_{0}^{T}<5.58×10^{-8}, Ω_{0}^{V}<6.35×10^{-8}, and Ω_{0}^{S}<1.08×10^{-7} at a reference frequency f_{0}=25  Hz.

GW170817: Implications for the Stochastic Gravitational-Wave Background from Compact Binary Coalescences

The LIGO Scientific and Virgo Collaborations have announced the event GW170817, the first detection of gravitational waves from the coalescence of two neutron stars. The merger rate of binary neutron stars estimated from this event suggests that distant, unresolvable binary neutron stars create a significant astrophysical stochastic gravitational-wave background. The binary neutron star component will add to the contribution from binary black holes, increasing the amplitude of the total astrophysical background relative to previous expectations. In the Advanced LIGO-Virgo frequency band most sensitive to stochastic backgrounds (near 25 Hz), we predict a total astrophysical background with amplitude Ω_{GW}(f=25  Hz)=1.8_{-1.3}^{+2.7}×10^{-9} with 90% confidence, compared with Ω_{GW}(f=25  Hz)=1.1_{-0.7}^{+1.2}×10^{-9} from binary black holes alone. Assuming the most probable rate for compact binary mergers, we find that the total background may be detectable with a signal-to-noise-ratio of 3 after 40 months of total observation time, based on the expected timeline for Advanced LIGO and Virgo to reach their design sensitivity.

First Search for Nontensorial Gravitational Waves from Known Pulsars

We present results from the first directed search for nontensorial gravitational waves. While general relativity allows for tensorial (plus and cross) modes only, a generic metric theory may, in principle, predict waves with up to six different polarizations. This analysis is sensitive to continuous signals of scalar, vector, or tensor polarizations, and does not rely on any specific theory of gravity. After searching data from the first observation run of the advanced LIGO detectors for signals at twice the rotational frequency of 200 known pulsars, we find no evidence of gravitational waves of any polarization. We report the first upper limits for scalar and vector strains, finding values comparable in magnitude to previously published limits for tensor strain. Our results may be translated into constraints on specific alternative theories of gravity.

Prospects for observing and localizing gravitational-wave transients with Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA

We present possible observing scenarios for the Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA gravitational-wave detectors over the next decade, with the intention of providing information to the astronomy community to facilitate planning for multi-messenger astronomy with gravitational waves. We estimate the sensitivity of the network to transient gravitational-wave signals, and study the capability of the network to determine the sky location of the source. We report our findings for gravitational-wave transients, with particular focus on gravitational-wave signals from the inspiral of binary neutron star systems, which are the most promising targets for multi-messenger astronomy. The ability to localize the sources of the detected signals depends on the geographical distribution of the detectors and their relative sensitivity, and [Formula: see text] credible regions can be as large as thousands of square degrees when only two sensitive detectors are operational. Determining the sky position of a significant fraction of detected signals to areas of 5-[Formula: see text] requires at least three detectors of sensitivity within a factor of [Formula: see text] of each other and with a broad frequency bandwidth. When all detectors, including KAGRA and the third LIGO detector in India, reach design sensitivity, a significant fraction of gravitational-wave signals will be localized to a few square degrees by gravitational-wave observations alone.

Effects of transients in LIGO suspensions on searches for gravitational waves

This paper presents an analysis of the transient behavior of the Advanced LIGO (Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory) suspensions used to seismically isolate the optics. We have characterized the transients in the longitudinal motion of the quadruple suspensions during Advanced LIGO's first observing run. Propagation of transients between stages is consistent with modeled transfer functions, such that transient motion originating at the top of the suspension chain is significantly reduced in amplitude at the test mass. We find that there are transients seen by the longitudinal motion monitors of quadruple suspensions, but they are not significantly correlated with transient motion above the noise floor in the gravitational wave strain data, and therefore do not present a dominant source of background noise in the searches for transient gravitational wave signals. Using the suspension transfer functions, we compared the transients in a week of gravitational wave strain data with transients from a quadruple suspension. Of the strain transients between 10 and 60 Hz, 84% are loud enough that they would have appeared above the sensor noise in the top stage quadruple suspension monitors if they had originated at that stage at the same frequencies. We find no significant temporal correlation with the suspension transients in that stage, so we can rule out suspension motion originating at the top stage as the cause of those transients. However, only 3.2% of the gravitational wave strain transients are loud enough that they would have been seen by the second stage suspension sensors, and none of them are above the sensor noise levels of the penultimate stage. Therefore, we cannot eliminate the possibility of transient noise in the detectors originating in the intermediate stages of the suspension below the sensing noise.

GW170817: Observation of Gravitational Waves from a Binary Neutron Star Inspiral

On August 17, 2017 at 12∶41:04 UTC the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo gravitational-wave detectors made their first observation of a binary neutron star inspiral. The signal, GW170817, was detected with a combined signal-to-noise ratio of 32.4 and a false-alarm-rate estimate of less than one per 8.0×10^{4}  years. We infer the component masses of the binary to be between 0.86 and 2.26  M_{⊙}, in agreement with masses of known neutron stars. Restricting the component spins to the range inferred in binary neutron stars, we find the component masses to be in the range 1.17-1.60  M_{⊙}, with the total mass of the system 2.74_{-0.01}^{+0.04}M_{⊙}. The source was localized within a sky region of 28  deg^{2} (90% probability) and had a luminosity distance of 40_{-14}^{+8}  Mpc, the closest and most precisely localized gravitational-wave signal yet. The association with the γ-ray burst GRB 170817A, detected by Fermi-GBM 1.7 s after the coalescence, corroborates the hypothesis of a neutron star merger and provides the first direct evidence of a link between these mergers and short γ-ray bursts. Subsequent identification of transient counterparts across the electromagnetic spectrum in the same location further supports the interpretation of this event as a neutron star merger. This unprecedented joint gravitational and electromagnetic observation provides insight into astrophysics, dense matter, gravitation, and cosmology.

GW170814: A Three-Detector Observation of Gravitational Waves from a Binary Black Hole Coalescence

On August 14, 2017 at 10∶30:43 UTC, the Advanced Virgo detector and the two Advanced LIGO detectors coherently observed a transient gravitational-wave signal produced by the coalescence of two stellar mass black holes, with a false-alarm rate of ≲1 in 27 000 years. The signal was observed with a three-detector network matched-filter signal-to-noise ratio of 18. The inferred masses of the initial black holes are 30.5_{-3.0}^{+5.7}M_{⊙} and 25.3_{-4.2}^{+2.8}M_{⊙} (at the 90% credible level). The luminosity distance of the source is 540_{-210}^{+130}  Mpc, corresponding to a redshift of z=0.11_{-0.04}^{+0.03}. A network of three detectors improves the sky localization of the source, reducing the area of the 90% credible region from 1160   deg^{2} using only the two LIGO detectors to 60  deg^{2} using all three detectors. For the first time, we can test the nature of gravitational-wave polarizations from the antenna response of the LIGO-Virgo network, thus enabling a new class of phenomenological tests of gravity.

GW170104: Observation of a 50-Solar-Mass Binary Black Hole Coalescence at Redshift 0.2

We describe the observation of GW170104, a gravitational-wave signal produced by the coalescence of a pair of stellar-mass black holes. The signal was measured on January 4, 2017 at 10∶11:58.6 UTC by the twin advanced detectors of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory during their second observing run, with a network signal-to-noise ratio of 13 and a false alarm rate less than 1 in 70 000 years. The inferred component black hole masses are 31.2_{-6.0}^{+8.4}M_{⊙} and 19.4_{-5.9}^{+5.3}M_{⊙} (at the 90% credible level). The black hole spins are best constrained through measurement of the effective inspiral spin parameter, a mass-weighted combination of the spin components perpendicular to the orbital plane, χ_{eff}=-0.12_{-0.30}^{+0.21}. This result implies that spin configurations with both component spins positively aligned with the orbital angular momentum are disfavored. The source luminosity distance is 880_{-390}^{+450}  Mpc corresponding to a redshift of z=0.18_{-0.07}^{+0.08}. We constrain the magnitude of modifications to the gravitational-wave dispersion relation and perform null tests of general relativity. Assuming that gravitons are dispersed in vacuum like massive particles, we bound the graviton mass to m_{g}≤7.7×10^{-23}  eV/c^{2}. In all cases, we find that GW170104 is consistent with general relativity.

First Demonstration of Electrostatic Damping of Parametric Instability at Advanced LIGO

Interferometric gravitational wave detectors operate with high optical power in their arms in order to achieve high shot-noise limited strain sensitivity. A significant limitation to increasing the optical power is the phenomenon of three-mode parametric instabilities, in which the laser field in the arm cavities is scattered into higher-order optical modes by acoustic modes of the cavity mirrors. The optical modes can further drive the acoustic modes via radiation pressure, potentially producing an exponential buildup. One proposed technique to stabilize parametric instability is active damping of acoustic modes. We report here the first demonstration of damping a parametrically unstable mode using active feedback forces on the cavity mirror. A 15 538 Hz mode that grew exponentially with a time constant of 182 sec was damped using electrostatic actuation, with a resulting decay time constant of 23 sec. An average control force of 0.03 nN was required to maintain the acoustic mode at its minimum amplitude.

Upper Limits on the Stochastic Gravitational-Wave Background from Advanced LIGO's First Observing Run

A wide variety of astrophysical and cosmological sources are expected to contribute to a stochastic gravitational-wave background. Following the observations of GW150914 and GW151226, the rate and mass of coalescing binary black holes appear to be greater than many previous expectations. As a result, the stochastic background from unresolved compact binary coalescences is expected to be particularly loud. We perform a search for the isotropic stochastic gravitational-wave background using data from Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory's (aLIGO) first observing run. The data display no evidence of a stochastic gravitational-wave signal. We constrain the dimensionless energy density of gravitational waves to be Ω_{0}<1.7×10^{-7} with 95% confidence, assuming a flat energy density spectrum in the most sensitive part of the LIGO band (20-86 Hz). This is a factor of ∼33 times more sensitive than previous measurements. We also constrain arbitrary power-law spectra. Finally, we investigate the implications of this search for the background of binary black holes using an astrophysical model for the background.

Directional Limits on Persistent Gravitational Waves from Advanced LIGO's First Observing Run

We employ gravitational-wave radiometry to map the stochastic gravitational wave background expected from a variety of contributing mechanisms and test the assumption of isotropy using data from the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory's (aLIGO) first observing run. We also search for persistent gravitational waves from point sources with only minimal assumptions over the 20-1726 Hz frequency band. Finding no evidence of gravitational waves from either point sources or a stochastic background, we set limits at 90% confidence. For broadband point sources, we report upper limits on the gravitational wave energy flux per unit frequency in the range F_{α,Θ}(f)<(0.1-56)×10^{-8}    erg cm^{-2} s^{-1} Hz^{-1}(f/25  Hz)^{α-1} depending on the sky location Θ and the spectral power index α. For extended sources, we report upper limits on the fractional gravitational wave energy density required to close the Universe of Ω(f,Θ)<(0.39-7.6)×10^{-8}  sr^{-1}(f/25  Hz)^{α} depending on Θ and α. Directed searches for narrowband gravitational waves from astrophysically interesting objects (Scorpius X-1, Supernova 1987 A, and the Galactic Center) yield median frequency-dependent limits on strain amplitude of h_{0}<(6.7,5.5,  and  7.0)×10^{-25}, respectively, at the most sensitive detector frequencies between 130-175 Hz. This represents a mean improvement of a factor of 2 across the band compared to previous searches of this kind for these sky locations, considering the different quantities of strain constrained in each case.

Stable isotopes in atmospheric water vapor and applications to the hydrologic cycle

The measurement and simulation of water vapor isotopic composition has matured rapidly over the last decade, with long-term datasets and comprehensive modeling capabilities now available. Theories for water vapor isotopic composition have been developed by extending the theories that have been used for the isotopic composition of precipitation to include a more nuanced understanding of evaporation, large-scale mixing, deep convection, and kinetic fractionation. The technologies for in-situ and remote sensing measurements of water vapor isotopic composition have developed especially rapidly over the last decade, with discrete water vapor sampling methods, based on mass spectroscopy, giving way to laser spectroscopic methods and satellite- and ground-based infrared absorption techniques. The simulation of water vapor isotopic composition has evolved from General Circulation Model (GCM) methods for simulating precipitation isotopic composition to sophisticated isotope-enabled microphysics schemes using higher-order moments for water- and ice-size distributions. The incorporation of isotopes into GCMs has enabled more detailed diagnostics of the water cycle and has led to improvements in its simulation. The combination of improved measurement and modeling of water vapor isotopic composition opens the door to new advances in our understanding of the atmospheric water cycle, in processes ranging from the marine boundary layer, through deep convection and tropospheric mixing, and into the water cycle of the stratosphere. Finally, studies of the processes governing modern water vapor isotopic composition provide an improved framework for the interpretation of paleoclimate proxy records of the hydrological cycle.

Characterization of transient noise in Advanced LIGO relevant to gravitational wave signal GW150914

On September 14, 2015, a gravitational wave signal from a coalescing black hole binary system was observed by the Advanced LIGO detectors. This paper describes the transient noise backgrounds used to determine the significance of the event (designated GW150914) and presents the results of investigations into potential correlated or uncorrelated sources of transient noise in the detectors around the time of the event. The detectors were operating nominally at the time of GW150914. We have ruled out environmental influences and non-Gaussian instrument noise at either LIGO detector as the cause of the observed gravitational wave signal.

GW151226: Observation of Gravitational Waves from a 22-Solar-Mass Binary Black Hole Coalescence

We report the observation of a gravitational-wave signal produced by the coalescence of two stellar-mass black holes. The signal, GW151226, was observed by the twin detectors of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) on December 26, 2015 at 03:38:53 UTC. The signal was initially identified within 70 s by an online matched-filter search targeting binary coalescences. Subsequent off-line analyses recovered GW151226 with a network signal-to-noise ratio of 13 and a significance greater than 5σ. The signal persisted in the LIGO frequency band for approximately 1 s, increasing in frequency and amplitude over about 55 cycles from 35 to 450 Hz, and reached a peak gravitational strain of 3.4_{-0.9}^{+0.7}×10^{-22}. The inferred source-frame initial black hole masses are 14.2_{-3.7}^{+8.3}M_{⊙} and 7.5_{-2.3}^{+2.3}M_{⊙}, and the final black hole mass is 20.8_{-1.7}^{+6.1}M_{⊙}. We find that at least one of the component black holes has spin greater than 0.2. This source is located at a luminosity distance of 440_{-190}^{+180}  Mpc corresponding to a redshift of 0.09_{-0.04}^{+0.03}. All uncertainties define a 90% credible interval. This second gravitational-wave observation provides improved constraints on stellar populations and on deviations from general relativity.

Properties of the Binary Black Hole Merger GW150914

On September 14, 2015, the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) detected a gravitational-wave transient (GW150914); we characterize the properties of the source and its parameters. The data around the time of the event were analyzed coherently across the LIGO network using a suite of accurate waveform models that describe gravitational waves from a compact binary system in general relativity. GW150914 was produced by a nearly equal mass binary black hole of masses 36_{-4}^{+5}M_{⊙} and 29_{-4}^{+4}M_{⊙}; for each parameter we report the median value and the range of the 90% credible interval. The dimensionless spin magnitude of the more massive black hole is bound to be <0.7 (at 90% probability). The luminosity distance to the source is 410_{-180}^{+160}  Mpc, corresponding to a redshift 0.09_{-0.04}^{+0.03} assuming standard cosmology. The source location is constrained to an annulus section of 610  deg^{2}, primarily in the southern hemisphere. The binary merges into a black hole of mass 62_{-4}^{+4}M_{⊙} and spin 0.67_{-0.07}^{+0.05}. This black hole is significantly more massive than any other inferred from electromagnetic observations in the stellar-mass regime.

GW150914: First results from the search for binary black hole coalescence with Advanced LIGO

On September 14, 2015 at 09:50:45 UTC the two detectors of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) simultaneously observed the binary black hole merger GW150914. We report the results of a matched-filter search using relativistic models of compact-object binaries that recovered GW150914 as the most significant event during the coincident observations between the two LIGO detectors from September 12 to October 20, 2015. GW150914 was observed with a matched filter signal-to-noise ratio of 24 and a false alarm rate estimated to be less than 1 event per 203000 years, equivalent to a significance greater than 5.1 σ.

GW150914: First results from the search for binary black hole coalescence with Advanced LIGO

On September 14, 2015 at 09:50:45 UTC the two detectors of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) simultaneously observed the binary black hole merger GW150914. We report the results of a matched-filter search using relativistic models of compact-object binaries that recovered GW150914 as the most significant event during the coincident observations between the two LIGO detectors from September 12 to October 20, 2015. GW150914 was observed with a matched filter signal-to-noise ratio of 24 and a false alarm rate estimated to be less than 1 event per 203000 years, equivalent to a significance greater than 5.1 σ.

Tests of General Relativity with GW150914

The LIGO detection of GW150914 provides an unprecedented opportunity to study the two-body motion of a compact-object binary in the large-velocity, highly nonlinear regime, and to witness the final merger of the binary and the excitation of uniquely relativistic modes of the gravitational field. We carry out several investigations to determine whether GW150914 is consistent with a binary black-hole merger in general relativity. We find that the final remnant's mass and spin, as determined from the low-frequency (inspiral) and high-frequency (postinspiral) phases of the signal, are mutually consistent with the binary black-hole solution in general relativity. Furthermore, the data following the peak of GW150914 are consistent with the least-damped quasinormal mode inferred from the mass and spin of the remnant black hole. By using waveform models that allow for parametrized general-relativity violations during the inspiral and merger phases, we perform quantitative tests on the gravitational-wave phase in the dynamical regime and we determine the first empirical bounds on several high-order post-Newtonian coefficients. We constrain the graviton Compton wavelength, assuming that gravitons are dispersed in vacuum in the same way as particles with mass, obtaining a 90%-confidence lower bound of 10^{13}  km. In conclusion, within our statistical uncertainties, we find no evidence for violations of general relativity in the genuinely strong-field regime of gravity.

Simulating the Black Saturday 2009 smoke plume with an interactive composition-climate model: sensitivity to emissions amount, timing and injection height

We simulated the high-altitude smoke plume from the early February 2009 Black Saturday bushfires in southeastern Australia using the NASA GISS ModelE2. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first single-plume analysis of biomass burning emissions injected directly into the upper-troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) using a full-complexity composition-climate model. We compared simulated carbon monoxide (CO) to a new Aura TES/MLS joint CO retrieval, focusing on the plume's initial transport eastward, anticyclonic circulation to the north of New Zealand, westward transport in the lower stratospheric easterlies, and arrival over Africa at the end of February. Our goal was to determine the sensitivity of the simulated plume to prescribed injection height, emissions amount and emissions timing from different sources for a full complexity model when compared to Aura. The most realistic plumes were obtained using injection heights in the UTLS, including one drawn from ground-based radar data. A six-hour emissions pulse or emissions tied to independent estimates of hourly fire behavior produced a more realistic plume in the lower stratosphere compared to the same emissions amount being released evenly over 12 or 24-hours. Simulated CO in the plume was highly sensitive to the differences between emissions amounts estimated from the Global Fire Emissions Database and from detailed, ground-based estimates of fire growth. The emissions amount determined not only the CO concentration of the plume, but the proportion of the plume that entered the stratosphere. We speculate that this is due to either or both non-linear CO loss with a weakened OH sink, or plume self-lofting driven by shortwave absorption of the co-emitted aerosols.

GW150914: Implications for the Stochastic Gravitational-Wave Background from Binary Black Holes

The LIGO detection of the gravitational wave transient GW150914, from the inspiral and merger of two black holes with masses ≳30M_{⊙}, suggests a population of binary black holes with relatively high mass. This observation implies that the stochastic gravitational-wave background from binary black holes, created from the incoherent superposition of all the merging binaries in the Universe, could be higher than previously expected. Using the properties of GW150914, we estimate the energy density of such a background from binary black holes. In the most sensitive part of the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo band for stochastic backgrounds (near 25 Hz), we predict Ω_{GW}(f=25  Hz)=1.1_{-0.9}^{+2.7}×10^{-9} with 90% confidence. This prediction is robustly demonstrated for a variety of formation scenarios with different parameters. The differences between models are small compared to the statistical uncertainty arising from the currently poorly constrained local coalescence rate. We conclude that this background is potentially measurable by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors operating at their projected final sensitivity.

GW150914: The Advanced LIGO Detectors in the Era of First Discoveries

Following a major upgrade, the two advanced detectors of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) held their first observation run between September 2015 and January 2016. With a strain sensitivity of 10^{-23}/sqrt[Hz] at 100 Hz, the product of observable volume and measurement time exceeded that of all previous runs within the first 16 days of coincident observation. On September 14, 2015, the Advanced LIGO detectors observed a transient gravitational-wave signal determined to be the coalescence of two black holes [B. P. Abbott et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 061102 (2016)], launching the era of gravitational-wave astronomy. The event, GW150914, was observed with a combined signal-to-noise ratio of 24 in coincidence by the two detectors. Here, we present the main features of the detectors that enabled this observation. At full sensitivity, the Advanced LIGO detectors are designed to deliver another factor of 3 improvement in the signal-to-noise ratio for binary black hole systems similar in mass to GW150914.

Observation of Gravitational Waves from a Binary Black Hole Merger

On September 14, 2015 at 09:50:45 UTC the two detectors of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory simultaneously observed a transient gravitational-wave signal. The signal sweeps upwards in frequency from 35 to 250 Hz with a peak gravitational-wave strain of 1.0×10(-21). It matches the waveform predicted by general relativity for the inspiral and merger of a pair of black holes and the ringdown of the resulting single black hole. The signal was observed with a matched-filter signal-to-noise ratio of 24 and a false alarm rate estimated to be less than 1 event per 203,000 years, equivalent to a significance greater than 5.1σ. The source lies at a luminosity distance of 410(-180)(+160)  Mpc corresponding to a redshift z=0.09(-0.04)(+0.03). In the source frame, the initial black hole masses are 36(-4)(+5)M⊙ and 29(-4)(+4)M⊙, and the final black hole mass is 62(-4)(+4)M⊙, with 3.0(-0.5)(+0.5)M⊙c(2) radiated in gravitational waves. All uncertainties define 90% credible intervals. These observations demonstrate the existence of binary stellar-mass black hole systems. This is the first direct detection of gravitational waves and the first observation of a binary black hole merger.

Prospects for Observing and Localizing Gravitational-Wave Transients with Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo

We present a possible observing scenario for the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo gravitational-wave detectors over the next decade, with the intention of providing information to the astronomy community to facilitate planning for multi-messenger astronomy with gravitational waves. We determine the expected sensitivity of the network to transient gravitational-wave signals, and study the capability of the network to determine the sky location of the source. We report our findings for gravitational-wave transients, with particular focus on gravitational-wave signals from the inspiral of binary neutron-star systems, which are considered the most promising for multi-messenger astronomy. The ability to localize the sources of the detected signals depends on the geographical distribution of the detectors and their relative sensitivity, and 90% credible regions can be as large as thousands of square degrees when only two sensitive detectors are operational. Determining the sky position of a significant fraction of detected signals to areas of 5 deg2 to 20 deg2 will require at least three detectors of sensitivity within a factor of ∼ 2 of each other and with a broad frequency bandwidth. Should the third LIGO detector be relocated to India as expected, a significant fraction of gravitational-wave signals will be localized to a few square degrees by gravitational-wave observations alone.

Improved upper limits on the stochastic gravitational-wave background from 2009-2010 LIGO and Virgo data

Gravitational waves from a variety of sources are predicted to superpose to create a stochastic background. This background is expected to contain unique information from throughout the history of the Universe that is unavailable through standard electromagnetic observations, making its study of fundamental importance to understanding the evolution of the Universe. We carry out a search for the stochastic background with the latest data from the LIGO and Virgo detectors. Consistent with predictions from most stochastic gravitational-wave background models, the data display no evidence of a stochastic gravitational-wave signal. Assuming a gravitational-wave spectrum of Ω_{GW}(f)=Ω_{α}(f/f_{ref})^{α}, we place 95% confidence level upper limits on the energy density of the background in each of four frequency bands spanning 41.5-1726 Hz. In the frequency band of 41.5-169.25 Hz for a spectral index of α=0, we constrain the energy density of the stochastic background to be Ω_{GW}(f)<5.6×10^{-6}. For the 600-1000 Hz band, Ω_{GW}(f)<0.14(f/900  Hz)^{3}, a factor of 2.5 lower than the best previously reported upper limits. We find Ω_{GW}(f)<1.8×10^{-4} using a spectral index of zero for 170-600 Hz and Ω_{GW}(f)<1.0(f/1300  Hz)^{3} for 1000-1726 Hz, bands in which no previous direct limits have been placed. The limits in these four bands are the lowest direct measurements to date on the stochastic background. We discuss the implications of these results in light of the recent claim by the BICEP2 experiment of the possible evidence for inflationary gravitational waves.

Search for gravitational waves associated with γ-ray bursts detected by the interplanetary network

We present the results of a search for gravitational waves associated with 223 γ-ray bursts (GRBs) detected by the InterPlanetary Network (IPN) in 2005-2010 during LIGO's fifth and sixth science runs and Virgo's first, second, and third science runs. The IPN satellites provide accurate times of the bursts and sky localizations that vary significantly from degree scale to hundreds of square degrees. We search for both a well-modeled binary coalescence signal, the favored progenitor model for short GRBs, and for generic, unmodeled gravitational wave bursts. Both searches use the event time and sky localization to improve the gravitational wave search sensitivity as compared to corresponding all-time, all-sky searches. We find no evidence of a gravitational wave signal associated with any of the IPN GRBs in the sample, nor do we find evidence for a population of weak gravitational wave signals associated with the GRBs. For all IPN-detected GRBs, for which a sufficient duration of quality gravitational wave data are available, we place lower bounds on the distance to the source in accordance with an optimistic assumption of gravitational wave emission energy of 10(-2)M⊙c(2) at 150 Hz, and find a median of 13 Mpc. For the 27 short-hard GRBs we place 90% confidence exclusion distances to two source models: a binary neutron star coalescence, with a median distance of 12 Mpc, or the coalescence of a neutron star and black hole, with a median distance of 22 Mpc. Finally, we combine this search with previously published results to provide a population statement for GRB searches in first-generation LIGO and Virgo gravitational wave detectors and a resulting examination of prospects for the advanced gravitational wave detectors.

Search for gravitational waves associated with γ-ray bursts detected by the interplanetary network

We present the results of a search for gravitational waves associated with 223 γ-ray bursts (GRBs) detected by the InterPlanetary Network (IPN) in 2005-2010 during LIGO's fifth and sixth science runs and Virgo's first, second, and third science runs. The IPN satellites provide accurate times of the bursts and sky localizations that vary significantly from degree scale to hundreds of square degrees. We search for both a well-modeled binary coalescence signal, the favored progenitor model for short GRBs, and for generic, unmodeled gravitational wave bursts. Both searches use the event time and sky localization to improve the gravitational wave search sensitivity as compared to corresponding all-time, all-sky searches. We find no evidence of a gravitational wave signal associated with any of the IPN GRBs in the sample, nor do we find evidence for a population of weak gravitational wave signals associated with the GRBs. For all IPN-detected GRBs, for which a sufficient duration of quality gravitational wave data are available, we place lower bounds on the distance to the source in accordance with an optimistic assumption of gravitational wave emission energy of 10(-2)M⊙c(2) at 150 Hz, and find a median of 13 Mpc. For the 27 short-hard GRBs we place 90% confidence exclusion distances to two source models: a binary neutron star coalescence, with a median distance of 12 Mpc, or the coalescence of a neutron star and black hole, with a median distance of 22 Mpc. Finally, we combine this search with previously published results to provide a population statement for GRB searches in first-generation LIGO and Virgo gravitational wave detectors and a resulting examination of prospects for the advanced gravitational wave detectors.

Constraints on cosmic strings from the LIGO-Virgo gravitational-wave detectors

Cosmic strings can give rise to a large variety of interesting astrophysical phenomena. Among them, powerful bursts of gravitational waves (GWs) produced by cusps are a promising observational signature. In this Letter we present a search for GWs from cosmic string cusps in data collected by the LIGO and Virgo gravitational wave detectors between 2005 and 2010, with over 625 days of live time. We find no evidence of GW signals from cosmic strings. From this result, we derive new constraints on cosmic string parameters, which complement and improve existing limits from previous searches for a stochastic background of GWs from cosmic microwave background measurements and pulsar timing data. In particular, if the size of loops is given by the gravitational backreaction scale, we place upper limits on the string tension Gμ below 10(-8) in some regions of the cosmic string parameter space.

Methanol from TES global observations: retrieval algorithm and seasonal and spatial variability

We present a detailed description of the TES methanol (CH3OH) retrieval algorithm, along with initial global results showing the seasonal and spatial distribution of methanol in the lower troposphere. The full development of the TES methanol retrieval is described, including microwindow selection, error analysis, and the utilization of a priori and initial guess information provided by the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. Retrieval simulations and a sensitivity analysis using the developed retrieval strategy show that TES: (i) generally provides less than 1.0 piece of information, (ii) is sensitive in the lower troposphere with peak sensitivity typically occurring between ~900-700 hPa (~1-3 km) at a vertical resolution of ~5 km, (iii) has a limit of detectability between 0.5 and 1.0 ppbv Representative Volume Mixing Ratio (RVMR) depending on the atmospheric conditions, corresponding roughly to a profile with a maximum concentration of at least 1 to 2 ppbv, and (iv) in a simulation environment has a mean bias of 0.16 ppbv with a standard deviation of 0.34 ppbv. Applying the newly derived TES retrieval globally and comparing the results with corresponding GEOS-Chem output, we find generally consistent large-scale patterns between the two. However, TES often reveals higher methanol concentrations than simulated in the Northern Hemisphere spring, summer and fall. In the Southern Hemisphere, the TES methanol observations indicate a model overestimate over the bulk of South America from December through July, and a model underestimate during the biomass burning season.

Directional limits on persistent gravitational waves using LIGO S5 science data

The gravitational-wave (GW) sky may include nearby pointlike sources as well as stochastic backgrounds. We perform two directional searches for persistent GWs using data from the LIGO S5 science run: one optimized for pointlike sources and one for arbitrary extended sources. Finding no evidence to support the detection of GWs, we present 90% confidence level (C.L.) upper-limit maps of GW strain power with typical values between 2-20×10(-50)  strain(2) Hz(-1) and 5-35×10(-49)  strain(2) Hz(-1) sr(-1) for pointlike and extended sources, respectively. The latter result is the first of its kind. We also set 90% C.L. limits on the narrow-band root-mean-square GW strain from interesting targets including Sco X-1, SN 1987A and the Galactic center as low as ≈7×10(-25) in the most sensitive frequency range near 160 Hz.