Coffee Drinking and Mortality in 10 European Countries: A Multinational Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The relationship between coffee consumption and mortality in diverse European populations with variable coffee preparation methods is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether coffee consumption is associated with all-cause and cause-specific mortality.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

10 European countries.

PARTICIPANTS

521 330 persons enrolled in EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition).

MEASUREMENTS

Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs estimated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. The association of coffee consumption with serum biomarkers of liver function, inflammation, and metabolic health was evaluated in the EPIC Biomarkers subcohort (n = 14 800).

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 16.4 years, 41 693 deaths occurred. Compared with nonconsumers, participants in the highest quartile of coffee consumption had statistically significantly lower all-cause mortality (men: HR, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.82 to 0.95]; P for trend < 0.001; women: HR, 0.93 [CI, 0.87 to 0.98]; P for trend = 0.009). Inverse associations were also observed for digestive disease mortality for men (HR, 0.41 [CI, 0.32 to 0.54]; P for trend < 0.001) and women (HR, 0.60 [CI, 0.46 to 0.78]; P for trend < 0.001). Among women, there was a statistically significant inverse association of coffee drinking with circulatory disease mortality (HR, 0.78 [CI, 0.68 to 0.90]; P for trend < 0.001) and cerebrovascular disease mortality (HR, 0.70 [CI, 0.55 to 0.90]; P for trend = 0.002) and a positive association with ovarian cancer mortality (HR, 1.31 [CI, 1.07 to 1.61]; P for trend = 0.015). In the EPIC Biomarkers subcohort, higher coffee consumption was associated with lower serum alkaline phosphatase; alanine aminotransferase; aspartate aminotransferase; γ-glutamyltransferase; and, in women, C-reactive protein, lipoprotein(a), and glycated hemoglobin levels.

LIMITATIONS

Reverse causality may have biased the findings; however, results did not differ after exclusion of participants who died within 8 years of baseline. Coffee-drinking habits were assessed only once.

CONCLUSION

Coffee drinking was associated with reduced risk for death from various causes. This relationship did not vary by country.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

European Commission Directorate-General for Health and Consumers and International Agency for Research on Cancer.

Population-based multicase-control study in common tumors in Spain (MCC-Spain): rationale and study design

INTRODUCTION

We present the protocol of a large population-based case-control study of 5 common tumors in Spain (MCC-Spain) that evaluates environmental exposures and genetic factors.

METHODS

Between 2008-2013, 10,106 subjects aged 20-85 were enrolled in 23 hospitals and primary care centres in 12 Spanish provinces including 1,112 cases with a new diagnosis of prostate cancer, 1,738 of breast cancer, 2,140 of colorectal cancer, 459 of gastro-oesophageal cancer, 559 cases with chronic lymphocytic leukaemia and 4,098 population controls frequency matched to cases by age, sex and region of residence. Participation rates ranged from 57% (stomach cancer) to 87% (CLL cases) and from 30% to 77% in controls. Participants completed a face-to-face computerized interview on sociodemographic factors, environmental exposures, occupation, medication, lifestyle, and personal and family medical history. In addition, participants completed a self-administered food-frequency questionnaire and telephone interviews. Blood samples were collected from 76% of participants while saliva samples were collected in CLL cases and participants refusing blood extractions. Clinical information was recorded for cases and paraffin blocks and/or fresh tumor samples are available in most collaborating hospitals. Genotyping was done through an exome array enriched with genetic markers in specific pathways. Multiple analyses are planned to assess the association of environmental, personal and genetic risk factors for each tumor and to identify pleiotropic effects.

DISCUSSION

This study, conducted within the Spanish Consortium for Biomedical Research in Epidemiology & Public Health (CIBERESP), is a unique initiative to evaluate etiological factors for common cancers and will promote cancer research and prevention in Spain.

Obesity, inflammatory markers, and endometrial cancer risk: a prospective case-control study

Obesity, a major risk factor for endometrial cancer, is a low-grade inflammatory state characterized by elevated concentrations of cytokines and acute phase reactants. The current study had two aims: first to investigate the associations of C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin 6 (IL6), and IL1 receptor antagonist (IL1Ra) with endometrial cancer risk and second to examine to which extent these markers can influence the association between obesity and endometrial cancer. We conducted a case-control study, nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, which comprised 305 incident cases of endometrial cancer and 574 matched controls. CRP, IL6, and IL1Ra were measured in prospectively collected blood specimens by immunoassays. Data were analyzed using conditional logistic regression. All statistical tests were two-sided, and P values <0.05 were considered statistically significant. We observed a significant increase in risk of endometrial cancer with elevated levels of CRP (odds ratio (OR) for top versus bottom quartile: 1.58, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03-2.41, P(trend)=0.02), IL6 (OR for top versus bottom quartile: 1.66, 95% CI: 1.08-2.54, P(trend)=0.008), and IL1Ra (OR for top versus bottom quartile: 1.82, 95% CI: 1.22-2.73, P(trend)=0.004). After adjustment for body mass index (BMI), the estimates were strongly reduced and became non-significant. The association between BMI and endometrial cancer was also substantially attenuated (∼10-20%) after adjustment for inflammatory markers, even when the effects of C-peptide or estrone had already been taken into account. We provided epidemiological evidence that chronic inflammation might mediate the association between obesity and endometrial cancer and that endometrial carcinogenesis could be promoted by an inflammatory milieu.

Hormonal, metabolic, and inflammatory profiles and endometrial cancer risk within the EPIC cohort--a factor analysis

A "Western" lifestyle characterized by physical inactivity and excess weight is associated with a number of metabolic and hormonal dysregulations, including increased circulating estrogen levels, hyperinsulinemia, hyperglycemia, and chronic inflammation. The same hormonal and metabolic axes might mediate the association between this lifestyle and the development of endometrial cancer. Using data collected within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), a prospective cohort study carried out in 10 European countries during 1992-2000, we conducted a factor analysis to delineate important components that summarize the variation explained by a set of biomarkers and to examine their association with endometrial cancer risk. Prediagnostic levels of testosterone, androstenedione, dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate, sex hormone-binding globulin, estrone, estradiol, C-peptide, insulin-like growth factor-binding proteins 1 and 2, adiponectin, high- and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, glucose, triglycerides, tumor necrosis factor (TNF) α, soluble TNF receptors 1 and 2, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, and interleukin-1 receptor antagonist were measured in 233 incident endometrial cancer cases and 446 matched controls. Factor analysis identified 3 components associated with postmenopausal endometrial cancer risk that could be labeled "insulin resistance/metabolic syndrome," "steroids," and "inflammation" factors. A fourth component, "lipids," was not significantly associated with endometrial cancer. In conclusion, besides the well-known associations of risk with sex hormones and insulin-regulated physiological axes, our data further support the hypothesis that inflammation factors play a role in endometrial carcinogenesis.

Serum levels of IGF-I, IGFBP-3 and colorectal cancer risk: results from the EPIC cohort, plus a meta-analysis of prospective studies

Several prospective studies have shown a moderate positive association between increasing circulating insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) levels and colorectal cancer risk. However, the associations were often statistically nonsignificant, and the relationship of cancer risk with IGF-I's major binding protein, IGFBP-3, showed major discrepancies between studies. We investigated the association of colorectal cancer risk with serum IGF-I, total and intact IGFBP-3, in a case-control study nested within the EPIC cohort (1,121 cases of colorectal cancer and 1,121 matched controls). Conditional logistic regression was used to adjust for possible confounders. Our present study results were combined in a meta-analysis with those from 9 previous prospective studies to examine the overall evidence for a relationship of prediagnostic serum IGF-I with colorectal cancer risk. In the EPIC study, serum concentrations of IGF-I and IGFBP-3 showed no associations with risk of colorectal cancer overall. Only in subgroup analyses did our study show moderate positive associations of IGF-I levels with risk, either among younger participants only (and only for colon cancer) or among participants whose milk intakes were in the lowest tertile of the population distribution (RR for an increase of 100 ng/ml = 1.43 [95% CI = 1.13-1.93]). Nevertheless, in the meta-analysis a modest positive association remained between serum IGF-I and colorectal cancer risk overall (RR = 1.07 [1.01-1.14] for 1 standard deviation increase in IGF-I). Overall, data from our present study and previous prospective studies combined indicate a relatively modest association of colorectal cancer risk with serum IGF-I.

Mediterranean diet and incidence of hip fractures in a European cohort

Prevention of hip fractures is of critical public health importance. In a cohort of adults from eight European countries, evidence was found that increased adherence to Mediterranean diet, measured by a 10-unit dietary score, is associated with reduced hip fracture incidence, particularly among men.

INTRODUCTION

Evidence on the role of dietary patterns on hip fracture incidence is scarce. We explored the association of adherence to Mediterranean diet (MD) with hip fracture incidence in a cohort from eight European countries.

METHODS

A total of 188,795 eligible participants (48,814 men and 139,981 women) in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition study with mean age 48.6 years (±10.8) were followed for a median of 9 years, and 802 incident hip fractures were recorded. Diet was assessed at baseline through validated dietary instruments. Adherence to MD was evaluated by a MD score (MDs), on a 10-point scale, in which monounsaturated were substituted with unsaturated lipids. Association with hip fracture incidence was assessed through Cox regression with adjustment for potential confounders.

RESULTS

Increased adherence to MD was associated with a 7 % decrease in hip fracture incidence [hazard ratio (HR) per 1-unit increase in the MDs 0.93; 95 % confidence interval (95 % CI) = 0.89-0.98]. This association was more evident among men and somewhat stronger among older individuals. Using increments close to one standard deviation of daily intake, in the overall sample, high vegetable (HR = 0.86; 95 % CI = 0.79-0.94) and high fruit (HR = 0.89; 95 % CI = 0.82-0.97) intake was associated with decreased hip fracture incidence, whereas high meat intake (HR = 1.18; 95 % CI = 1.06-1.31) with increased incidence. Excessive ethanol consumption (HR high versus moderate = 1.74; 95 % CI = 1.32-2.31) was also a risk factor.

CONCLUSIONS

In a prospective study of adults, increased adherence to MD appears to protect against hip fracture occurrence, particularly among men.

Colorectal cancer risk and nitrate exposure through drinking water and diet

Ingested nitrate leads to the endogenous synthesis of N-nitroso compounds (NOCs), animal carcinogens with limited human evidence. We aimed to evaluate the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) associated with nitrate exposure in drinking water and diet. A case-control study in Spain and Italy during 2008-2013 was conducted. Hospital-based incident cases and population-based (Spain) or hospital-based (Italy) controls were interviewed on residential history, water consumption since age 18, and dietary information. Long-term waterborne ingested nitrate was derived from routine monitoring records, linked to subjects' residential histories and water consumption habits. Dietary nitrate intake was estimated from food frequency questionnaires and published food composition databases. Odd ratios (OR) were calculated using mixed models with area as random effect, adjusted for CRC risk factors and other covariables. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to analyze exposure-response relationships. Interaction with endogenous nitrosation factors and other covariables was also evaluated. In total 1,869 cases and 3,530 controls were analyzed. Average waterborne ingested nitrate ranged from 3.4 to 19.7 mg/day, among areas. OR (95% CIs) of CRC was 1.49 (1.24, 1.78) for >10 versus ≤5 mg/day, overall. Associations were larger among men versus women, and among subjects with high red meat intake. GAMs showed increasing exposure-response relationship among men. Animal-derived dietary nitrate was associated with rectal, but not with colon cancer risk. In conclusion, a positive association between CRC risk and waterborne ingested nitrate is suggested, mainly among subgroups with other risk factors. Heterogeneous effects of nitrate from different sources (water, animal and vegetables) warrant further research.

Tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α, soluble TNF receptors and endometrial cancer risk: the EPIC study

Chronic inflammation has been hypothesized to play a role in endometrial cancer development. Tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), one of the major pro-inflammatory cytokines, has also been implicated in endometrial physiology. We conducted a case-control study nested within the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition (EPIC) to examine the association of TNF-α and its two soluble receptors (sTNFR1 and sTNFR2) with endometrial cancer risk. Two-hundred-seventy cases and 518 matched controls were analyzed using conditional logistic regression. All statistical tests were two-sided. We observed an increased risk of endometrial cancer among women in the highest versus lowest quartile of TNF-α (odds ratio [OR]: 1.73, 95% CI: 1.09-2.73, P(trend) = 0.01), sTNFR1 (OR: 1.68, 95% CI: 0.99-2.86, P(trend) = 0.07) and sTNFR2 (OR: 1.53, 95%CI: 0.92-2.55, P(trend) = 0.03) after adjustment for body-mass-index, parity, age at menopause and previous postmenopausal hormone therapy use. Further adjustments for estrogens and C-peptide had minor effect on risk estimates. Our data show that elevated prediagnostic concentrations of TNF-α and its soluble receptors are related to a higher risk of endometrial cancer, particularly strong in women diagnosed within 2 years of blood donation. This is the first study of its kind and therefore deserves replication in further prospective studies.

Adherence to the Western, Prudent and Mediterranean dietary patterns and breast cancer risk: MCC-Spain study

OBJECTIVE

To externally validate the previously identified effect on breast cancer risk of the Western, Prudent and Mediterranean dietary patterns.

STUDY DESIGN

MCC-Spain is a multicase-control study that collected epidemiological information on 1181 incident cases of female breast cancer and 1682 healthy controls from 10 Spanish provinces. Three dietary patterns derived in another Spanish case-control study were analysed in the MCC-Spain study. These patterns were termed Western (high intakes of fatty and sugary products and red and processed meat), Prudent (high intakes of low-fat dairy products, vegetables, fruits, whole grains and juices) and Mediterranean (high intake of fish, vegetables, legumes, boiled potatoes, fruits, olives, and vegetable oil, and a low intake of juices). Their association with breast cancer was assessed using logistic regression models with random province-specific intercepts considering an interaction with menopausal status. Risk according to tumour subtypes - based on oestrogen (ER), progesterone (PR) and human epidermal growth factor 2 (HER2) receptors (ER+/PR+ & HER2-; HER2+; ER-/PR- & HER2-) - was evaluated with multinomial regression models.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Breast cancer and histological subtype.

RESULTS

Our results confirm most of the associations found in the previous case-control study. A high adherence to the Western dietary pattern seems to increase breast cancer risk in both premenopausal women (OR₄^th_vs.1^st_quartile (95% CI):1.68 (1.02;2.79); OR_1SD-increase (95% CI):1.19 (1.02;1.40)) and postmenopausal women (OR₄^th_vs.1^st_quartile(95% CI):1.48(1.07;2.05); OR_1SD-increase(95% CI): 1.14 (1.01;1.29)). While high adherence to the Prudent pattern did not show any effect on breast cancer, the Mediterranean dietary pattern seemed to be protective, but only among postmenopausal women (OR₄^th_vs.1^st_quartile (95% CI): 0.72 (95% CI 0.53;0.98); p-int=0.075). There were no significant differences by tumour subtype.

CONCLUSION

Dietary recommendations based on a departure from the Western dietary pattern in favour of the Mediterranean diet could reduce breast cancer risk in the general population.

Adherence to nutrition-based cancer prevention guidelines and breast, prostate and colorectal cancer risk in the MCC-Spain case-control study

Prostate, breast and colorectal cancer are the most common tumours in Spain. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the association between adherence to nutrition-based guidelines for cancer prevention and prostate, breast and colorectal cancer, in the MCC-Spain case-control study. A total of 1,718 colorectal, 1,343 breast and 864 prostate cancer cases and 3,431 population-based controls recruited between 2007 and 2012, were included in the present study. The World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research (WCRC/AICR) score based on six recommendations for cancer prevention (on body fatness, physical activity, foods and drinks that promote weight gain, plant foods, animal foods and alcoholic drinks; score range 0-6) was constructed. We used unconditional logistic regression analysis adjusting for potential confounders. One-point increment in the WCRF/AICR score was associated with 25% (95% CI 19-30%) lower risk of colorectal, and 15% (95% CI 7-22%) lower risk of breast cancer; no association with prostate cancer was detected, except for cases with a Gleason score ≥7 (poorly differentiated/undifferentiated tumours) (OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.76-0.99). These results add to the wealth of evidence indicating that a great proportion of common cancer cases could be avoided by adopting healthy lifestyle habits.

Modifiable causes of premature death in middle-age in Western Europe: results from the EPIC cohort study

BACKGROUND

Life expectancy is increasing in Europe, yet a substantial proportion of adults still die prematurely before the age of 70 years. We sought to estimate the joint and relative contributions of tobacco smoking, hypertension, obesity, physical inactivity, alcohol and poor diet towards risk of premature death.

METHODS

We analysed data from 264,906 European adults from the EPIC prospective cohort study, aged between 40 and 70 years at the time of recruitment. Flexible parametric survival models were used to model risk of death conditional on risk factors, and survival functions and attributable fractions (AF) for deaths prior to age 70 years were calculated based on the fitted models.

RESULTS

We identified 11,930 deaths which occurred before the age of 70. The AF for premature mortality for smoking was 31 % (95 % confidence interval (CI), 31-32 %) and 14 % (95 % CI, 12-16 %) for poor diet. Important contributions were also observed for overweight and obesity measured by waist-hip ratio (10 %; 95 % CI, 8-12 %) and high blood pressure (9 %; 95 % CI, 7-11 %). AFs for physical inactivity and excessive alcohol intake were 7 % and 4 %, respectively. Collectively, the AF for all six risk factors was 57 % (95 % CI, 55-59 %), being 35 % (95 % CI, 32-37 %) among never smokers and 74 % (95 % CI, 73-75 %) among current smokers.

CONCLUSIONS

While smoking remains the predominant risk factor for premature death in Europe, poor diet, overweight and obesity, hypertension, physical inactivity, and excessive alcohol consumption also contribute substantially. Any attempt to minimise premature deaths will ultimately require all six factors to be addressed.

Concentrations and correlations of disinfection by-products in municipal drinking water from an exposure assessment perspective

Although disinfection by-products (DBPs) occur in complex mixtures, studies evaluating health risks have been focused in few chemicals. In the framework of an epidemiological study on cancer in 11 Spanish provinces, we describe the concentration of four trihalomethanes (THMs), nine haloacetic acids (HAA), 3-chloro-4-(dichloromethyl)-5-hydroxy-2(5H)-furanone (MX), four haloacetonitries, two haloketones, chloropicrin and chloral hydrate and estimate correlations. A total of 233 tap water samples were collected in 2010. Principal component analyses were conducted to reduce dimensionality of DBPs. Overall median (range) level of THMs and HAAs was 26.4 (0.8-98.1) and 26.4 (0.9-86.9) μg/l, respectively (N=217). MX analysed in a subset (N=36) showed a median (range) concentration of 16.7 (0.8-54.1)ng/l. Haloacetonitries, haloketones, chloropicrin and chloral hydrate were analysed in a subset (N=16), showing levels from unquantifiable (<1 μg/l) to 5.5 μg/l (dibromoacetonitrile). Spearman rank correlation coefficients between DBPs varied between species and across areas, being highest between dibromochloromethane and dibromochloroacetic acid (r(s)=0.87). Principal component analyses of 13 DBPs (4 THMs, 9 HAAs) led 3 components explaining more than 80% of variance. In conclusion, THMs and HAAs have limited value as predictors of other DBPs on a generalised basis. Principal component analysis provides a complementary tool to address the complex nature of the mixture.

Association of Streptococcus gallolyticus subspecies gallolyticus with colorectal cancer: Serological evidence

The colonic opportunist Streptococcus gallolyticus subspecies gallolyticus (SGG) is potentially associated with colorectal cancer (CRC). Large-scale seroepidemiological data for SGG antibodies and their possible association with CRC is currently missing. Associations between CRC and antibody responses to SGG were examined in 576 CRC cases and 576 controls matched by sex, age and province from a population-based multicase-control project (MCC-Spain). MCC-Spain was conducted between 2008 and 2013 in 12 Spanish provinces. Antibody responses to recombinant affinity-purified SGG pilus proteins Gallo1569, 2039, 2178 and 2179 were analysed by multiplex serology. Polyomavirus (PyV) JC VP1 and PyV 6 VP1 proteins served as disease-specificity controls. In the control population, antibody responses to pilus proteins were mostly weak. Antibody responses to individual pilus proteins Gallo2039 (OR: 1.58, 95% CI: 1.09-2.28), Gallo2178 (OR: 1.58, 95% CI: 1.09-2.30) and Gallo2179 (OR: 1.45, 95% CI: 1.00-2.11) were significantly associated with CRC risk. The association was stronger for positivity to two or more pilus proteins of Gallo1569, Gallo2178 and Gallo2179 (OR:1.93, 95% CI: 1.04-3.56) and for double-positivity to Gallo2178 and Gallo2179 (OR: 3.54, 95% CI: 1.49-8.44). The association between SGG infection and CRC risk was stronger among individuals younger than 65 years. For the first time we demonstrated a statistically significant association of exposure to SGG antigens and CRC in a large seroepidemiological study. These results should stimulate further studies on the role of SGG in CRC pathogenesis.

A prospective evaluation of plasma polyphenol levels and colon cancer risk

Polyphenols have been shown to exert biological activity in experimental models of colon cancer; however, human data linking specific polyphenols to colon cancer is limited. We assessed the relationship between pre-diagnostic plasma polyphenols and colon cancer risk in a case-control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. Using high pressure liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry, we measured concentrations of 35 polyphenols in plasma from 809 incident colon cancer cases and 809 matched controls. We used multivariable adjusted conditional logistic regression models that included established colon cancer risk factors. The false discovery rate (qvalues ) was computed to control for multiple comparisons. All statistical tests were two-sided. After false discovery rate correction and in continuous log2 -transformed multivariable models, equol (odds ratio [OR] per log2 -value, 0.86, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.79-0.93; qvalue  = 0.01) and homovanillic acid (OR per log2 -value, 1.46, 95% CI = 1.16-1.84; qvalue  = 0.02) were associated with colon cancer risk. Comparing extreme fifths, equol concentrations were inversely associated with colon cancer risk (OR = 0.61, 95% CI = 0.41-0.91, ptrend  = 0.003), while homovanillic acid concentrations were positively associated with colon cancer development (OR = 1.72, 95% CI = 1.17-2.53, ptrend  < 0.0001). No heterogeneity for these associations was observed by sex and across other colon cancer risk factors. The remaining polyphenols were not associated with colon cancer risk. Higher equol concentrations were associated with lower risk, and higher homovanillic acid concentrations were associated with greater risk of colon cancer. These findings support a potential role for specific polyphenols in colon tumorigenesis.

Fish consumption and mortality in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort

Fish is a source of important nutrients and may play a role in preventing heart diseases and other health outcomes. However, studies of overall mortality and cause-specific mortality related to fish consumption are inconclusive. We examined the rate of overall mortality, as well as mortality from ischaemic heart disease and cancer in relation to the intake of total fish, lean fish, and fatty fish in a large prospective cohort including ten European countries. More than 500,000 men and women completed a dietary questionnaire in 1992-1999 and were followed up for mortality until the end of 2010. 32,587 persons were reported dead since enrolment. Hazard ratios and their 99% confidence interval were estimated using Cox proportional hazard regression models. Fish consumption was examined using quintiles based on reported consumption, using moderate fish consumption (third quintile) as reference, and as continuous variables, using increments of 10 g/day. All analyses were adjusted for possible confounders. No association was seen for fish consumption and overall or cause-specific mortality for both the categorical and the continuous analyses, but there seemed to be a U-shaped trend (p < 0.000) with fatty fish consumption and total mortality and with total fish consumption and cancer mortality (p = 0.046).

Colorectal Cancer and Long-Term Exposure to Trihalomethanes in Drinking Water: A Multicenter Case-Control Study in Spain and Italy

BACKGROUND

Evidence on the association between colorectal cancer and exposure to disinfection by-products in drinking water is inconsistent.

OBJECTIVES

We assessed long-term exposure to trihalomethanes (THMs), the most prevalent group of chlorination by-products, to evaluate the association with colorectal cancer.

METHODS

A multicenter case-control study was conducted in Spain and Italy in 2008-2013. Hospital-based incident cases and population-based (Spain) and hospital-based (Italy) controls were interviewed to ascertain residential histories, type of water consumed in each residence, frequency and duration of showering/bathing, and major recognized risk factors for colorectal cancer. We estimated adjusted odds ratios (OR) for colorectal cancer in association with quartiles of estimated average lifetime THM concentrations in each participant's residential tap water (micrograms/liter; from age 18 to 2 years before the interview) and estimated average lifetime THM ingestion from drinking residential tap water (micrograms/day).

RESULTS

We analyzed 2,047 cases and 3,718 controls. Median values (ranges) for average lifetime residential tap water concentrations of total THMs, chloroform, and brominated THMs were 30 (0-174), 17 (0-63), and 9 (0-145) μg/L, respectively. Total THM concentration in residential tap water was not associated with colorectal cancer (OR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.66, 1.28 for highest vs. lowest quartile), but chloroform concentrations were inversely associated (OR = 0.31, 95% CI: 0.24, 0.41 for highest vs. lowest quartile). Brominated THM concentrations showed a positive association among men in the highest versus the lowest quartile (OR = 1.43, 95% CI: 0.83, 2.46). Patterns of association were similar for estimated average THM ingestion through residential water consumption.

CONCLUSIONS

We did not find clear evidence of an association between detailed estimates of lifetime total THM exposure and colorectal cancer in our large case-control study population. Negative associations with chloroform concentrations and ingestion suggest differences among specific THMs, but these findings should be confirmed in other study populations. Citation: Villanueva CM, Gracia-Lavedan E, Bosetti C, Righi E, Molina AJ, Martín V, Boldo E, Aragonés N, Perez-Gomez B, Pollan M, Gomez Acebo I, Altzibar JM, Jiménez Zabala A, Ardanaz E, Peiró R, Tardón A, Chirlaque MD, Tavani A, Polesel J, Serraino D, Pisa F, Castaño-Vinyals G, Espinosa A, Espejo-Herrera N, Palau M, Moreno V, La Vecchia C, Aggazzotti G, Nieuwenhuijsen MJ, Kogevinas M. 2017. Colorectal cancer and long-term exposure to trihalomethanes in drinking water: a multicenter case---control study in Spain and Italy. Environ Health Perspect 125:56-65; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP155.

Development of a prediction model for fatal and non-fatal coronary heart disease and cardiovascular disease in patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus: the Basque Country Prospective Complications and Mortality Study risk engine (BASCORE)

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim of this study was to construct a model for predicting CHD and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes in a southern European region. External validation of two other cardiovascular risk models and internal validation of our model were assessed.

METHODS

We studied 65,651 people attending a primary care setting in the Basque Country Health Service. A 10-year prospective population-based cohort study was performed with 777 patients newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes older than 24 years in a Sentinel Practice Network. Cardiovascular risk factors, CVD events and mortality were registered. Coefficients for the significant predictors of CHD and CVD were estimated using Cox models. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of the UK Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine (UKPDS-RE), the Framingham Risk Score-Regicor Study (FRS-RS) and the cardiovascular risk model we developed.

RESULTS

The incidence rate per 1,000 patients/year was calculated for microvascular and cardiovascular complications, and death. Age, the ratio of non-HDL- to HDL-cholesterol, HbA1c, systolic blood pressure and smoking were significant predictors of cardiovascular events. A risk model was developed using these predictors. The UKPDS-RE and FRS-RS showed inadequate discrimination (Uno's C statistics 0.62 and 0.58, respectively) and calibration (24% overestimation and 51% underestimation, respectively) for predicting CHD risk. The internal discrimination and calibration of the developed model were acceptable for predicting fatal/non-fatal 2- and 5-, but not 10-year CHD and CVD risk.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

This study is the first southern European validated population-derived model for predicting 5-year fatal/non-fatal CHD and CVD risk in patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes.

Epidemiology of asthma exacerbations and their relation with environmental factors in the Basque Country

BACKGROUND

Asthma is a highly prevalent chronic inflammatory disease characterised by reversible airflow obstruction and hyperreactivity and inflammation of the airways. Factors that cause and/or trigger asthma attacks include host-related factors (genetic predisposition, obesity and sex) and environmental factors (allergens, infections, occupational sensitisation, smoking status, pollution and diet).

OBJECTIVE

To describe the epidemiology of asthma exacerbations (AEs) in the Basque Country and to explore its relationship with potentially associated environmental variables. We studied a total of 31,579 emergency department (ED) visits and 28,189 hospitalisations due to asthma. We describe the trends, incidence, seasonality and the influence of age and sex, as well as of exposure to NO2 , CO, PM, O3 , and pollen, temperature, relative humidity and flu status. We calculated the Pearson's R correlation coefficient for the study variables.

RESULTS

The incidence was 486 and 88.9 cases per 100,000 people for ED visits and hospitalisations, respectively. Slightly over half (53.5%) of the ED cases were male, while females represented 62.6% of the hospital admissions. Hospitalisations are tending to decrease in children and increase in over 64-year-olds. Peaks in cases occur at the beginning of autumn in children and in winter in adults. AEs were correlated positively with exposure to NO2 , CO and to the influenza virus and negatively with temperature and exposure to O3 . These relationships vary, however, with age and season.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE

Rates of hospitalisation for AEs and trends in these rates over time are different in adults and children with the patterns varying by sex, season and environmental conditions.

Association of diabetes and diabetes treatment with incidence of breast cancer

AIMS

The aim of this study was to evaluate the association of diabetes and diabetes treatment with risk of postmenopausal breast cancer.

METHODS

Histologically confirmed incident cases of postmenopausal breast (N = 916) cancer were recruited from 23 Spanish public hospitals. Population-based controls (N = 1094) were randomly selected from primary care center lists within the catchment areas of the participant hospitals. ORs (95 % CI) were estimated using mixed-effects logistic regression models, using the recruitment center as a random effect term. Breast tumors were classified into hormone receptor positive (ER+ or PR+), HER2+ and triple negative (TN).

RESULTS

Diabetes was not associated with the overall risk of breast cancer (OR 1.09; 95 % CI 0.82-1.45), and it was only linked to the risk of developing TN tumors: Among 91 women with TN tumors, 18.7 % were diabetic, while the corresponding figure among controls was 9.9 % (OR 2.25; 95 % CI 1.22-4.15). Regarding treatment, results showed that insulin use was more prevalent among diabetic cases (2.5 %) as compared to diabetic controls (0.7 %); OR 2.98; 95 % CI 1.26-7.01. They also showed that, among diabetics, the risk of developing HR+/HER2- tumors decreased with longer metformin use (ORper year 0.89; 95 % CI 0.81-0.99; based on 24 cases and 43 controls).

CONCLUSION

This study reinforces the need to correctly classify breast cancers when studying their association with diabetes. Given the low survival rates in women diagnosed with TN breast tumors and the potential impact of diabetes control on breast cancer prevention, more studies are needed to better characterize this association.

Using surveillance data to estimate pandemic vaccine effectiveness against laboratory confirmed influenza A(H1N1)2009 infection: two case-control studies, Spain, season 2009-2010

BACKGROUND

Physicians of the Spanish Influenza Sentinel Surveillance System report and systematically swab patients attended to their practices for influenza-like illness (ILI). Within the surveillance system, some Spanish regions also participated in an observational study aiming at estimating influenza vaccine effectiveness (cycEVA study). During the season 2009-2010, we estimated pandemic influenza vaccine effectiveness using both the influenza surveillance data and the cycEVA study.

METHODS

We conducted two case-control studies using the test-negative design, between weeks 48/2009 and 8/2010 of the pandemic season. The surveillance-based study included all swabbed patients in the sentinel surveillance system. The cycEVA study included swabbed patients from seven Spanish regions. Cases were laboratory-confirmed pandemic influenza A(H1N1)2009. Controls were ILI patients testing negative for any type of influenza. Variables collected in both studies included demographic data, vaccination status, laboratory results, chronic conditions, and pregnancy. Additionally, cycEVA questionnaire collected data on previous influenza vaccination, smoking, functional status, hospitalisations, visits to the general practitioners, and obesity. We used logistic regression to calculate adjusted odds ratios (OR), computing pandemic influenza vaccine effectiveness as (1-OR)*100.

RESULTS

We included 331 cases and 995 controls in the surveillance-based study and 85 cases and 351 controls in the cycEVA study. We detected nine (2.7%) and two (2.4%) vaccine failures in the surveillance-based and cycEVA studies, respectively. Adjusting for variables collected in surveillance database and swabbing month, pandemic influenza vaccine effectiveness was 62% (95% confidence interval (CI): -5; 87). The cycEVA vaccine effectiveness was 64% (95%CI: -225; 96) when adjusting for common variables with the surveillance system and 75% (95%CI: -293; 98) adjusting for all variables collected.

CONCLUSION

Point estimates of the pandemic influenza vaccine effectiveness suggested a protective effect of the pandemic vaccine against laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1)2009 in the season 2009-2010. Both studies were limited by the low vaccine coverage and the late start of the vaccination campaign. Routine influenza surveillance provides reliable estimates and could be used for influenza vaccine effectiveness studies in future seasons taken into account the surveillance system limitations.

Anthropometry, physical activity and hip fractures in the elderly

INTRODUCTION

Hip fractures constitute a major and growing public health problem amongst the elderly worldwide. We examined the association of anthropometry and physical activity with hip fracture incidence in a cohort of elderly Europeans, participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC) study.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The study population consisted of 27 982 volunteers (10 553 men and 17 429 women) aged 60 years and above from five European countries. Information on anthropometry, physical activity, medical history and other characteristics was collected at baseline. During a median follow-up of 8 years, 261 incident hip fractures (203 women and 58 men) were recorded. Data were analysed through Cox proportional hazard regression with adjustment for potential confounders.

RESULTS

A higher body mass index (BMI) was associated with lower hip fracture risk (hazard ratio (HR)per increasing sex-specific-quintile: 0.85, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.77–0.94). Body height was associated with increased hip fracture risk (HR per 5 cm: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.01–1.25). Waist-to-hip ratio was not related to hip fracture risk. Increasing levels of leisure-time physical activity were related to lower risk (HR per increasing tertile: 0.84, 95% CI: 0.70–0.99, p for trend: 0.039).

CONCLUSIONS

In a prospective cohort study of elderly Europeans, we found evidence that high body stature increased and high BMI decreased the incidence of hip fractures. After adjustment for BMI,waist to-hip ratio was not associated with hip fracture risk. Leisure-time physical activity appears to play a beneficial role in the prevention of hip fractures.

Estimating influenza vaccine effectiveness in Spain using sentinel surveillance data

We aimed to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against laboratory-confirmed influenza during three influenza seasons (2010/11 to 2012/2013) in Spain using surveillance data and to compare the results with data obtained by the cycEVA study, the Spanish component of the Influenza Monitoring Vaccine Effectiveness (I-MOVE) network. We used the test-negative case–control design, with data from the Spanish Influenza Sentinel Surveillance System (SISS) or from the cycEVA study. Cases were laboratory-confirmed influenza patients with the predominant influenza virus of each season, and controls were those testing negative for any influenza virus. We calculated the overall and age-specific adjusted VE. Although the number of patients recorded in the SISS was three times higher than that in the cycEVA study, the quality of information for important variables, i.e. vaccination status and laboratory results, was high in both studies. Overall, the SISS and cycEVA influenza VE estimates were largely similar during the study period. For elderly patients (> 59 years), the SISS estimates were slightly lower than those of cycEVA, and estimates for children (0–14 years) were higher using SISS in two of the three seasons studied. Enhancing the SISS by collecting the date of influenza vaccination and reducing the percentage of patients with incomplete information would optimise the system to provide reliable annual influenza VE estimates to guide influenza vaccination policies.

Menstrual and Reproductive Factors and Risk of Gastric and Colorectal Cancer in Spain

Background

Sex hormones play a role in gastric cancer and colorectal cancer etiology, however, epidemiological evidence is inconsistent. This study examines the influence of menstrual and reproductive factors over the risk of both tumors.

Methods

In this case-control study 128 women with gastric cancer and 1293 controls, as well as 562 female and colorectal cancer cases and 1605 controls were recruited in 9 and 11 Spanish provinces, respectively. Population controls were frequency matched to cases by age and province. Demographic and reproductive data were directly surveyed by trained staff. The association with gastric, colon and rectal cancer was assessed using logistic and multinomial mixed regression models.

Results

Our results show an inverse association of age at first birth with gastric cancer risk (five-year trend: OR = 0.69; p-value = 0.006). Ever users of hormonal contraception presented a decreased risk of gastric (OR = 0.42; 95%CI = 0.26–0.69), colon (OR = 0.64; 95%CI = 0.48–0.86) and rectal cancer (OR = 0.61; 95%CI = 0.43–0.88). Postmenopausal women who used hormone replacement therapy showed a decreased risk of colon and rectal tumors. A significant interaction of educational level with parity and months of first child lactation was also observed.

Conclusion

These findings suggest a protective role of exogenous hormones in gastric and colorectal cancer risk. The role of endogenous hormones remains unclear.