Association analysis between symptomology and herpesvirus IgG antibody concentrations in myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS) and multiple sclerosis

Myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS) and multiple sclerosis (MS) are two complex and multifactorial diseases whose patients experience persistent fatigue, cognitive impairment, among other shared symptoms. The onset of these diseases has also been linked to acute herpesvirus infections or their reactivations. In this work, we re-analyzed a previously-described dataset related to IgG antibody responses to 6 herpesviruses (CMV - cytomegalovirus; EBV - Epstein-Barr virus; HHV6 - human herpesvirus-6; HSV1 and HSV2 - herpes simplex virus-1 and -2, respectively; VZV - varicella-zoster virus) from the United Kingdom ME/CFS biobank. The primary goal was to report the underlying symptomology and its association with herpesvirus IgG antibodies using data from 4 disease-trigger-based subgroups of ME/CFS patients (n = 222) and patients with MS (n = 46). The secondary objective was to assess whether serological data could distinguish ME/CFS and its subgroup from MS using a SuperLearner (SL) algorithm. There was evidence for a significant negative association between temporary eye insight disturbance and CMV antibody concentrations and for a significant positive association between bladder problems and EBV antibody concentrations in the MS group. In the ME/CFS or its subgroups, the most significant antibody-symptom association was obtained for increasing HSV1 antibody concentration and brain fog, a finding in line with a negative impact of HSV1 exposure on cognitive outcomes in both healthy and disease conditions. There was also evidence for a higher number of significant antibody-symptom associations in the MS group than in the ME/CFS group. When we combined all the serological data in an SL algorithm, we could distinguish three ME/CFS subgroups (unknown disease trigger, non-infection trigger, and an infection disease trigger confirmed in the lab at the time of the event) from the MS group. However, we could not find the same for the remaining ME/CFS group (related to an unconfirmed infection disease). In conclusion, IgG antibody data explains more the symptomology of MS patients than the one of ME/CFS patients. Given the fluctuating nature of symptoms in ME/CFS patients, the clinical implication of these findings remains to be determined with a longitudinal study. This study is likely to ascertain the robustness of the associations during natural disease course.

Herpesviruses Serology Distinguishes Different Subgroups of Patients From the United Kingdom Myalgic Encephalomyelitis/Chronic Fatigue Syndrome Biobank

The evidence of an association between Myalgic Encephalomyelitis/Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (ME/CFS) and chronic herpesviruses infections remains inconclusive. Two reasons for the lack of consistent evidence are the large heterogeneity of the patients' population with different disease triggers and the use of arbitrary cutoffs for defining seropositivity. In this work we re-analyzed previously published serological data related to 7 herpesvirus antigens. Patients with ME/CFS were subdivided into four subgroups related to the disease triggers: S0-42 patients who did not know their disease trigger; S1-43 patients who reported a non-infection trigger; S2-93 patients who reported an infection trigger, but that infection was not confirmed by a lab test; and S3-48 patients who reported an infection trigger and that infection was confirmed by a lab test. In accordance with a sensitivity analysis, the data were compared to those from 99 healthy controls allowing the seropositivity cutoffs to vary within a wide range of possible values. We found a negative association between S1 and seropositivity to Epstein-Barr virus (VCA and EBNA1 antigens) and Varicella-Zoster virus using specific seropositivity cutoff. However, this association was not significant when controlling for multiple testing. We also found that S3 had a lower seroprevalence to the human cytomegalovirus when compared to healthy controls for all cutoffs used for seropositivity and after adjusting for multiple testing using the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure. However, this association did not reach statistical significance when using Benjamini-Yekutieli procedure. In summary, herpesviruses serology could distinguish subgroups of ME/CFS patients according to their disease trigger, but this finding could be eventually affected by the problem of multiple testing.

Dynamical SPQEIR model assesses the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 epidemic outbreaks

Against the current COVID-19 pandemic, governments worldwide have devised a variety of non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate it. However, it is generally difficult to estimate the joint impact of different control strategies. In this paper, we tackle this question with an extended epidemic SEIR model, informed by a socio-political classification of different interventions. First, we inquire the conceptual effect of mitigation parameters on the infection curve. Then, we illustrate the potential of our model to reproduce and explain empirical data from a number of countries, to perform cross-country comparisons. This gives information on the best synergies of interventions to control epidemic outbreaks while minimising impact on socio-economic needs. For instance, our results suggest that, while rapid and strong lockdown is an effective pandemic mitigation measure, a combination of social distancing and early contact tracing can achieve similar mitigation synergistically, while keeping lower isolation rates. This quantitative understanding can support the establishment of mid- and long-term interventions, to prepare containment strategies against further outbreaks. This paper also provides an online tool that allows researchers and decision makers to interactively simulate diverse scenarios with our model.

Sine-skewed toroidal distributions and their application in protein bioinformatics

In the bioinformatics field, there has been a growing interest in modeling dihedral angles of amino acids by viewing them as data on the torus. This has motivated, over the past years, new proposals of distributions on the torus. The main drawback of most of these models is that the related densities are (pointwise) symmetric, despite the fact that the data usually present asymmetric patterns. This motivates the need to find a new way of constructing asymmetric toroidal distributions starting from a symmetric distribution. We tackle this problem in this article by introducing the sine-skewed toroidal distributions. The general properties of the new models are derived. Based on the initial symmetric model, explicit expressions for the shape and dependence measures are obtained, a simple algorithm for generating random numbers is provided, and asymptotic results for the maximum likelihood estimators are established. An important feature of our construction is that no extra normalizing constant needs to be calculated, leading to more flexible distributions without increasing the complexity of the models. The benefit of employing these new sine-skewed toroidal distributions is shown on the basis of protein data, where, in general, the new models outperform their symmetric antecedents.