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Triant VA, Lyass A, Hurley LB, Borowsky LH, Ehrbar RQ, He W, Cheng D, Lo J, Klein DB, Meigs JB, Grinspoon SK, Plutzky J, Silverberg MJ, LaValley M, Massaro JM, D'Agostino RB. Cardiovascular Risk Estimation Is Suboptimal in People With HIV. J Am Heart Assoc 2024; 13:e029228. [PMID: 38761071 PMCID: PMC11179796 DOI: 10.1161/jaha.123.029228] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/10/2023] [Accepted: 02/16/2024] [Indexed: 05/20/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Established cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction functions may not accurately predict CVD risk in people with HIV. We assessed the performance of 3 CVD risk prediction functions in 2 HIV cohorts. METHODS AND RESULTS CVD risk scores were calculated in the Mass General Brigham and Kaiser Permanente Northern California HIV cohorts, using the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association atherosclerotic CVD function, the FHS (Framingham Heart Study) hard coronary heart disease function and the Framingham Heart Study hard CVD function. Outcomes were myocardial infarction or coronary death for FHS hard coronary heart disease function; and myocardial infarction, stroke, or coronary death for American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association and FHS hard CVD function. We calculated regression coefficients and assessed discrimination and calibration by sex; predicted to observed risk of outcome was also compared. In the combined cohort of 9412, 158 (1.7%) had a coronary heart disease event, and 309 (3.3%) had a CVD event. Among women, CVD risk was generally underestimated by all 3 risk functions. Among men, CVD risk was underestimated by the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association and FHS hard CVD function, but overestimated by the FHS hard coronary heart disease function. Calibration was poor for women using the FHS hard CVD function and for men using all functions. Discrimination in all functions was good for women (c-statistics ranging from 0.78 to 0.90) and moderate for men (c-statistics ranging from 0.71 to 0.72). CONCLUSIONS Established CVD risk prediction functions generally underestimate risk in people with HIV. Differences in model performance by sex underscore the need for both HIV-specific and sex-specific functions. Development of CVD risk prediction models tailored to HIV will enhance care for aging people with HIV.
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McMurray JJV, Solomon SD, Lock JP, Massaro JM, Zhu F, Zhou W, Skali H, Lewis EF, Freeman MW, Halvorsen YDC. Meta-analysis of risk of major adverse cardiovascular events in adults with type 2 diabetes treated with bexagliflozin. Diabetes Obes Metab 2024; 26:971-979. [PMID: 38151752 DOI: 10.1111/dom.15394] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/08/2023] [Revised: 11/21/2023] [Accepted: 11/22/2023] [Indexed: 12/29/2023]
Abstract
AIM To explore the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) associated with exposure to bexagliflozin. METHODS The analysis included 4090 participants with type 2 diabetes (T2D) enrolled in nine phase 2 and 3 double-blind randomized controlled trials. All potential MACE were adjudicated by a blinded committee. The primary endpoint for the meta-analysis was the hazard ratio (HR) for the time to first occurrence of non-fatal stroke, non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI), cardiovascular (CV) death or hospitalization for unstable angina (MACE+), tested for non-inferiority to a ratio of 1.8. The secondary endpoints were time to first occurrence of (i) non-fatal stroke, non-fatal MI or CV death (MACE), tested for non-inferiority to a ratio of 1.3; and (ii) CV death or hospitalization for heart failure, tested for superiority. RESULTS The HR for the primary endpoint of MACE+ was 0.80 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.58, 1.09), which fulfilled the non-inferiority objective with a P value of less than 0.0001. Non-inferiority for the first key secondary endpoint of MACE was also shown (HR = 0.82; 95% CI 0.59, 1.13; P = 0.0023). Superiority for time to CV death or first hospitalization for heart failure was not shown. CONCLUSIONS Bexagliflozin did not increase the risk of MACE in participants with T2D when compared with placebo or active control. Both the preapproval and postapproval thresholds for CV safety were met and bexagliflozin has been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration.
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Kaptoge S, Seshasai SRK, Sun L, Walker M, Bolton T, Spackman S, Ataklte F, Willeit P, Bell S, Burgess S, Pennells L, Altay S, Assmann G, Ben-Shlomo Y, Best LG, Björkelund C, Blazer DG, Brenner H, Brunner EJ, Dagenais GR, Cooper JA, Cooper C, Crespo CJ, Cushman M, D'Agostino RB, Daimon M, Daniels LB, Danker R, Davidson KW, de Jongh RT, Donfrancesco C, Ducimetiere P, Elders PJM, Engström G, Ford I, Gallacher I, Bakker SJL, Goldbourt U, de La Cámara G, Grimsgaard S, Gudnason V, Hansson PO, Imano H, Jukema JW, Kabrhel C, Kauhanen J, Kavousi M, Kiechl S, Knuiman MW, Kromhout D, Krumholz HM, Kuller LH, Laatikainen T, Lowler DA, Meyer HE, Mukamal K, Nietert PJ, Ninomiya T, Nitsch D, Nordestgaard BG, Palmieri L, Price JF, Ridker PM, Sun Q, Rosengren A, Roussel R, Sakurai M, Salomaa V, Schöttker B, Shaw JE, Strandberg TE, Sundström J, Tolonen H, Tverdal A, Verschuren WMM, Völzke H, Wagenknecht L, Wallace RB, Wannamethee SG, Wareham NJ, Wassertheil-Smoller S, Yamagishi K, Yeap BB, Harrison S, Inouye M, Griffin S, Butterworth AS, Wood AM, Thompson SG, Sattar N, Danesh J, Di Angelantonio E, Tipping RW, Russell S, Johansen M, Bancks MP, Mongraw-Chaffin M, Magliano D, Barr ELM, Zimmet PZ, Knuiman MW, Whincup PH, Willeit J, Willeit P, Leitner C, Lawlor DA, Ben-Shlomo Y, Elwood P, Sutherland SE, Hunt KJ, Cushman M, Selmer RM, Haheim LL, Ariansen I, Tybjaer-Hansen A, Frikkle-Schmidt R, Langsted A, Donfrancesco C, Lo Noce C, Balkau B, Bonnet F, Fumeron F, Pablos DL, Ferro CR, Morales TG, Mclachlan S, Guralnik J, Khaw KT, Brenner H, Holleczek B, Stocker H, Nissinen A, Palmieri L, Vartiainen E, Jousilahti P, Harald K, Massaro JM, Pencina M, Lyass A, Susa S, Oizumi T, Kayama T, Chetrit A, Roth J, Orenstein L, Welin L, Svärdsudd K, Lissner L, Hange D, Mehlig K, Salomaa V, Tilvis RS, Dennison E, Cooper C, Westbury L, Norman PE, Almeida OP, Hankey GJ, Hata J, Shibata M, Furuta Y, Bom MT, Rutters F, Muilwijk M, Kraft P, Lindstrom S, Turman C, Kiyama M, Kitamura A, Yamagishi K, Gerber Y, Laatikainen T, Salonen JT, van Schoor LN, van Zutphen EM, Verschuren WMM, Engström G, Melander O, Psaty BM, Blaha M, de Boer IH, Kronmal RA, Sattar N, Rosengren A, Nitsch D, Grandits G, Tverdal A, Shin HC, Albertorio JR, Gillum RF, Hu FB, Cooper JA, Humphries S, Hill- Briggs F, Vrany E, Butler M, Schwartz JE, Kiyama M, Kitamura A, Iso H, Amouyel P, Arveiler D, Ferrieres J, Gansevoort RT, de Boer R, Kieneker L, Crespo CJ, Assmann G, Trompet S, Kearney P, Cantin B, Després JP, Lamarche B, Laughlin G, McEvoy L, Aspelund T, Thorsson B, Sigurdsson G, Tilly M, Ikram MA, Dorr M, Schipf S, Völzke H, Fretts AM, Umans JG, Ali T, Shara N, Davey-Smith G, Can G, Yüksel H, Özkan U, Nakagawa H, Morikawa Y, Ishizaki M, Njølstad I, Wilsgaard T, Mathiesen E, Sundström J, Buring J, Cook N, Arndt V, Rothenbacher D, Manson J, Tinker L, Shipley M, Tabak AG, Kivimaki M, Packard C, Robertson M, Feskens E, Geleijnse M, Kromhout D. Life expectancy associated with different ages at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in high-income countries: 23 million person-years of observation. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol 2023; 11:731-742. [PMID: 37708900 PMCID: PMC7615299 DOI: 10.1016/s2213-8587(23)00223-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 48] [Impact Index Per Article: 24.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/15/2022] [Revised: 07/14/2023] [Accepted: 07/14/2023] [Indexed: 09/16/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is increasing rapidly, particularly among younger age groups. Estimates suggest that people with diabetes die, on average, 6 years earlier than people without diabetes. We aimed to provide reliable estimates of the associations between age at diagnosis of diabetes and all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and reductions in life expectancy. METHODS For this observational study, we conducted a combined analysis of individual-participant data from 19 high-income countries using two large-scale data sources: the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (96 cohorts, median baseline years 1961-2007, median latest follow-up years 1980-2013) and the UK Biobank (median baseline year 2006, median latest follow-up year 2020). We calculated age-adjusted and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality according to age at diagnosis of diabetes using data from 1 515 718 participants, in whom deaths were recorded during 23·1 million person-years of follow-up. We estimated cumulative survival by applying age-specific HRs to age-specific death rates from 2015 for the USA and the EU. FINDINGS For participants with diabetes, we observed a linear dose-response association between earlier age at diagnosis and higher risk of all-cause mortality compared with participants without diabetes. HRs were 2·69 (95% CI 2·43-2·97) when diagnosed at 30-39 years, 2·26 (2·08-2·45) at 40-49 years, 1·84 (1·72-1·97) at 50-59 years, 1·57 (1·47-1·67) at 60-69 years, and 1·39 (1·29-1·51) at 70 years and older. HRs per decade of earlier diagnosis were similar for men and women. Using death rates from the USA, a 50-year-old individual with diabetes died on average 14 years earlier when diagnosed aged 30 years, 10 years earlier when diagnosed aged 40 years, or 6 years earlier when diagnosed aged 50 years than an individual without diabetes. Using EU death rates, the corresponding estimates were 13, 9, or 5 years earlier. INTERPRETATION Every decade of earlier diagnosis of diabetes was associated with about 3-4 years of lower life expectancy, highlighting the need to develop and implement interventions that prevent or delay the onset of diabetes and to intensify the treatment of risk factors among young adults diagnosed with diabetes. FUNDING British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health and Care Research, and Health Data Research UK.
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Qazi S, Gona PN, Musgrave RM, Fox CS, Massaro JM, Hoffmann U, Chuang ML, O’Donnell CJ. Distribution, Determinants and Normal Reference Values of Aortic Arch Width: Thoracic Aortic Geometry in the Framingham Heart Study. AMERICAN HEART JOURNAL PLUS : CARDIOLOGY RESEARCH AND PRACTICE 2023; 26:100247. [PMID: 36742989 PMCID: PMC9894311 DOI: 10.1016/j.ahjo.2022.100247] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/01/2023]
Abstract
Study Objective Aortic arch geometry changes with age, including an increase in aortic arch width (AAW). High AAW is a predictor of incident adverse cardiovascular disease (CVD) events, but its distribution and determinants are unknown. We hypothesized that traditional CVD risk factors, in addition to age, are associated with increased AAW in community-dwelling adults. Study Design Framingham Offspring and Third Generation cohort participants (N=3026, 52% Men) underwent thoracic multidetector computed tomography (MDCT). A referent group (733M, 738W) free of clinical CVD, hypertension, dyslipidemia, smoking, and diabetes was used to generate sex and 10-year age-group specific upper 90th percentile (P90) cut-points for AAW. AAW was measured as the distance between the cross-sectional centroids of the ascending and descending thoracic aorta. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify clinical correlates of high AAW (≥referent P90) in the overall study group. Results Among referent participants, AAW increased with greater age-group, p for trend <0.0001 in each sex. Overall and within each age group, AAW was greater in men than women, p<0.0001 all comparisons. Across all participants, high AAW was associated with greater age (odds ratio, OR=1.34/10y; 95% confidence interval 1.20 - 1.50), body surface area (OR=1.97/SD; 1.62 - 2.40), diastolic blood pressure (OR=1.59/10mmHg; 1.40 - 1.81), pack-years smoked (OR=1.07; 1.02 - 1.13), and prevalent CVD (OR=1.64; 1.08 - 2.49). Conclusion AAW increases with greater age, body size, diastolic blood pressure and burden of smoking. High AAW (≥referent P90) is also associated with prevalent (clinically apparent) CVD. AAW is often seen on and easily measured from tomographic thoracic images and has prognostic value.
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Kammerlander A, Lyass A, Mahoney TF, Taron J, Eslami P, Lu MT, Long MT, Vasan RS, Massaro JM, Hoffmann U. Standardized measurement of abdominal muscle by computed tomography: association with cardiometabolic risk in the Framingham Heart Study. Eur Radiol 2022; 32:7068-7078. [PMID: 35779090 PMCID: PMC9474583 DOI: 10.1007/s00330-022-08934-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/18/2022] [Revised: 04/18/2022] [Accepted: 05/30/2022] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Objectives To provide a standard for total abdominal muscle mass (TAM) quantification on computed tomography (CT) and investigate its association with cardiovascular risk in a primary prevention setting. Methods We included 3016 Framingham Heart Study participants free of cardiovascular disease (CVD) who underwent abdominal CT between 2002 and 2005. On a single CT slice at the level of L3/L4, we segmented (1) TAM-Area, (2) TAM-Index (= TAM-Area/height) and, (3) TAM-Fraction (= TAM-Area/total cross-sectional CT-area). We tested the association of these muscle mass measures with prevalent and incident cardiometabolic risk factors and incident CVD events during a follow-up of 11.0 ± 2.7 years. Results In this community-based sample (49% women, mean age: 50.0 ± 10.0 years), all muscle quantity measures were significantly associated with prevalent and incident cardiometabolic risk factors and CVD events. However, only TAM-Fraction remained significantly associated with key outcomes (e.g., adj. OR 0.68 [0.55, 0.84] and HR 0.73 [0.57, 0.92] for incident hypertension and CVD events, respectively) after adjustment for age, sex, body mass index, and waist circumference. Moreover, only higher TAM-Fraction was associated with a lower risk (e.g., adj. OR: 0.56 [0.36–0.89] for incident diabetes versus TAM-Area: adj. OR 1.26 [0.79–2.01] and TAM-Index: 1.09 [0.75–1.58]). Conclusion TAM-Fraction on a single CT slice at L3/L4 is a novel body composition marker of cardiometabolic risk in a primary prevention setting that has the potential to improve risk stratification beyond traditional measures of obesity. Key Points • In this analysis of the Framingham Heart Study (n = 3016), TAM-F on a single slice CT was more closely associated with prevalent and incident cardiometabolic risk factors as compared to TAM alone or TAM indexed to body surface area. • TAM-F on a single abdominal CT slice at the level of L3/L4 could serve as a standard measure of muscle mass and improve risk prediction
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Borlaug BA, Blair J, Bergmann MW, Bugger H, Burkhoff D, Bruch L, Celermajer DS, Claggett B, Cleland JGF, Cutlip DE, Dauber I, Eicher JC, Gao Q, Gorter TM, Gustafsson F, Hayward C, van der Heyden J, Hasenfuß G, Hummel SL, Kaye DM, Komtebedde J, Massaro JM, Mazurek JA, McKenzie S, Mehta SR, Petrie MC, Post MC, Nair A, Rieth A, Silvestry FE, Solomon SD, Trochu JN, Van Veldhuisen DJ, Westenfeld R, Leon MB, Shah SJ. Latent Pulmonary Vascular Disease May Alter the Response to Therapeutic Atrial Shunt Device in Heart Failure. Circulation 2022; 145:1592-1604. [PMID: 35354306 PMCID: PMC9133195 DOI: 10.1161/circulationaha.122.059486] [Citation(s) in RCA: 59] [Impact Index Per Article: 19.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2022] [Accepted: 03/21/2022] [Indexed: 01/24/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND In REDUCE LAP-HF II (A Study to Evaluate the Corvia Medical, Inc IASD System II to Reduce Elevated Left Atrial Pressure in Patients With Heart Failure), implantation of an atrial shunt device did not provide overall clinical benefit for patients with heart failure with preserved or mildly reduced ejection fraction. However, prespecified analyses identified differences in response in subgroups defined by pulmonary artery systolic pressure during submaximal exercise, right atrial volume, and sex. Shunt implantation reduces left atrial pressures but increases pulmonary blood flow, which may be poorly tolerated in patients with pulmonary vascular disease (PVD). On the basis of these results, we hypothesized that patients with latent PVD, defined as elevated pulmonary vascular resistance during exercise, might be harmed by shunt implantation, and conversely that patients without PVD might benefit. METHODS REDUCE LAP-HF II enrolled 626 patients with heart failure, ejection fraction ≥40%, exercise pulmonary capillary wedge pressure ≥25 mm Hg, and resting pulmonary vascular resistance <3.5 Wood units who were randomized 1:1 to atrial shunt device or sham control. The primary outcome-a hierarchical composite of cardiovascular death, nonfatal ischemic stroke, recurrent HF events, and change in health status-was analyzed using the win ratio. Latent PVD was defined as pulmonary vascular resistance ≥1.74 Wood units (highest tertile) at peak exercise, measured before randomization. RESULTS Compared with patients without PVD (n=382), those with latent PVD (n=188) were older, had more atrial fibrillation and right heart dysfunction, and were more likely to have elevated left atrial pressure at rest. Shunt treatment was associated with worse outcomes in patients with PVD (win ratio, 0.60 [95% CI, 0.42, 0.86]; P=0.005) and signal of clinical benefit in patients without PVD (win ratio, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.02, 1.68]; P=0.038). Patients with larger right atrial volumes and men had worse outcomes with the device and both groups were more likely to have pacemakers, heart failure with mildly reduced ejection fraction, and increased left atrial volume. For patients without latent PVD or pacemaker (n=313; 50% of randomized patients), shunt treatment resulted in more robust signal of clinical benefit (win ratio, 1.51 [95% CI, 1.14, 2.00]; P=0.004). CONCLUSIONS In patients with heart failure with preserved or mildly reduced ejection fraction, the presence of latent PVD uncovered by invasive hemodynamic exercise testing identifies patients who may worsen with atrial shunt therapy, whereas those without latent PVD may benefit.
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Marchina S, Trevino-Calderon JA, Hassani S, Massaro JM, Lioutas VA, Carvalho F, Selim M. Perihematomal Edema and Clinical Outcome After Intracerebral Hemorrhage: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. Neurocrit Care 2022; 37:351-362. [PMID: 35578090 DOI: 10.1007/s12028-022-01512-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/01/2021] [Accepted: 04/05/2022] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Perihematomal edema (PHE) has been proposed as a radiological marker of secondary injury and therapeutic target in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the prognostic impact of PHE on functional outcome and mortality in patients with ICH. METHODS We searched major databases through December 2020 using predefined keywords. Any study using logistic regression to examine the association between PHE or its growth and functional outcome was included. We examined the overall pooled effect and conducted secondary analyses to explore the impact of individual PHE measures on various outcomes separately. Study quality was assessed by three independent raters using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Odds ratios (per 1-unit increase in PHE) and their confidence intervals (CIs) were log transformed and entered into a DerSimonian-Laird random-effects meta-analysis to obtain pooled estimates of the effect. RESULTS Twenty studies (n = 6633 patients) were included in the analysis. The pooled effect size for overall outcome was 1.05 (95% CI 1.02-1.08; p < 0.00). For the following secondary analyses, the effect size was weak: mortality (1.01; 95% CI 0.90-1.14), functional outcome (1.04; 95% CI 1.02-1.07), both 90-day (1.06; 95% CI 1.02-1.11), and in-hospital assessments (1.04; 95% CI 1.00-1.08). The effect sizes for PHE volume and PHE growth were 1.04 (95% CI 1.01-1.07) and 1.14 (95% CI 1.04-1.25), respectively. Heterogeneity across studies was substantial except for PHE growth. CONCLUSIONS This meta-analysis demonstrates that PHE volume within the first 72 h after ictus has a weak effect on functional outcome and mortality after ICH, whereas PHE growth might have a slightly larger impact during this time frame. Definitive conclusions are limited by the large variability of PHE measures, heterogeneity, and different evaluation time points between studies.
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Konstam MA, Mann DL, Udelson JJE, Ardell JL, De Ferrari GM, Cowie MR, Klein HU, Gregory DD, Massaro JM, Libbus I, DiCarlo LA, Butler J, Parker JD, Teerlink JR. Advances in Our Clinical Understanding of Autonomic Regulation Therapy Using Vagal Nerve Stimulation in Patients Living With Heart Failure. Front Physiol 2022; 13:857538. [PMID: 35530511 PMCID: PMC9068946 DOI: 10.3389/fphys.2022.857538] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2022] [Accepted: 03/21/2022] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
The ANTHEM-HF, INOVATE-HF, and NECTAR-HF clinical studies of autonomic regulation therapy (ART) using vagus nerve stimulation (VNS) systems have collectively provided dose-ranging information enabling the development of several working hypotheses on how stimulation frequency can be utilized during VNS for tolerability and improving cardiovascular outcomes in patients living with heart failure (HF) and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Changes in heart rate dynamics, comprising reduced heart rate (HR) and increased HR variability, are a biomarker of autonomic nerve system engagement and cardiac control, and appear to be sensitive to VNS that is delivered using a stimulation frequency that is similar to the natural operating frequency of the vagus nerve. Among prior studies, the ANTHEM-HF Pilot Study has provided the clearest evidence of autonomic engagement with VNS that was delivered using a stimulation frequency that was within the operating range of the vagus nerve. Achieving autonomic engagement was accompanied by improvement from baseline in six-minute walk duration (6MWD), health-related quality of life, and left ventricular EF (LVEF), over and above those achieved by concomitant guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) administered to counteract harmful neurohormonal activation, with relative freedom from deleterious effects. Autonomic engagement and positive directional changes have persisted over time, and an exploratory analysis suggests that improvement in autonomic tone, symptoms, and physical capacity may be independent of baseline NT-proBNP values. Based upon these encouraging observations, prospective, randomized controlled trials examining the effects on symptoms and cardiac function as well as natural history have been warranted. A multi-national, large-scale, randomized, controlled trial is well underway to determine the outcomes associated with ART using autonomic nervous system engagement as a guide for VNS delivery.
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Zhou TJ, LaValley MP, Nelson KP, Cabral HJ, Massaro JM. Calculating power for the Finkelstein and Schoenfeld test statistic for a composite endpoint with two components. Stat Med 2022; 41:3321-3335. [PMID: 35486817 DOI: 10.1002/sim.9419] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/01/2021] [Revised: 04/08/2022] [Accepted: 04/11/2022] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Abstract
The Finkelstein and Schoenfeld (FS) test is a popular generalized pairwise comparison approach to analyze prioritized composite endpoints (eg, components are assessed in order of clinical importance). Power and sample size estimation for the FS test, however, are generally done via simulation studies. This simulation approach can be extremely computationally burdensome, compounded by increasing number of composite endpoints and with increasing sample size. Here we propose an analytical solution to calculate power and sample size for commonly encountered two-component hierarchical composite endpoints. The power formulas are derived assuming underlying distributions in each of the component outcomes on the population level, which provide a computationally efficient and practical alternative to the standard simulation approach. Monte Carlo simulation results demonstrate that performance of the proposed power formulas are consistent with that of the simulation approach, and have generally desirable objective properties including robustness to mis-specified distributional assumptions. We demonstrate the application of the proposed formulas by calculating power and sample size for the Transthyretin Amyloidosis Cardiomyopathy Clinical Trial.
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Shah SJ, Borlaug BA, Chung ES, Cutlip DE, Debonnaire P, Fail PS, Gao Q, Hasenfuß G, Kahwash R, Kaye DM, Litwin SE, Lurz P, Massaro JM, Mohan RC, Ricciardi MJ, Solomon SD, Sverdlov AL, Swarup V, van Veldhuisen DJ, Winkler S, Leon MB. Atrial shunt device for heart failure with preserved and mildly reduced ejection fraction (REDUCE LAP-HF II): a randomised, multicentre, blinded, sham-controlled trial. Lancet 2022; 399:1130-1140. [PMID: 35120593 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(22)00016-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 131] [Impact Index Per Article: 43.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/15/2021] [Revised: 12/28/2021] [Accepted: 01/05/2022] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Placement of an interatrial shunt device reduces pulmonary capillary wedge pressure during exercise in patients with heart failure and preserved or mildly reduced ejection fraction. We aimed to investigate whether an interatrial shunt can reduce heart failure events or improve health status in these patients. METHODS In this randomised, international, blinded, sham-controlled trial performed at 89 health-care centres, we included patients (aged ≥40 years) with symptomatic heart failure, an ejection fraction of at least 40%, and pulmonary capillary wedge pressure during exercise of at least 25 mm Hg while exceeding right atrial pressure by at least 5 mm Hg. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either a shunt device or sham procedure. Patients and outcome assessors were masked to randomisation. The primary endpoint was a hierarchical composite of cardiovascular death or non-fatal ischemic stroke at 12 months, rate of total heart failure events up to 24 months, and change in Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire overall summary score at 12 months. Pre-specified subgroup analyses were conducted for the heart failure event endpoint. Analysis of the primary endpoint, all other efficacy endpoints, and safety endpoints was conducted in the modified intention-to-treat population, defined as all patients randomly allocated to receive treatment, excluding those found to be ineligible after randomisation and therefore not treated. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03088033. FINDINGS Between May 25, 2017, and July 24, 2020, 1072 participants were enrolled, of whom 626 were randomly assigned to either the atrial shunt device (n=314) or sham procedure (n=312). There were no differences between groups in the primary composite endpoint (win ratio 1·0 [95% CI 0·8-1·2]; p=0·85) or in the individual components of the primary endpoint. The prespecified subgroups demonstrating a differential effect of atrial shunt device treatment on heart failure events were pulmonary artery systolic pressure at 20W of exercise (pinteraction=0·002 [>70 mm Hg associated with worse outcomes]), right atrial volume index (pinteraction=0·012 [≥29·7 mL/m2, worse outcomes]), and sex (pinteraction=0·02 [men, worse outcomes]). There were no differences in the composite safety endpoint between the two groups (n=116 [38%] for shunt device vs n=97 [31%] for sham procedure; p=0·11). INTERPRETATION Placement of an atrial shunt device did not reduce the total rate of heart failure events or improve health status in the overall population of patients with heart failure and ejection fraction of greater than or equal to 40%. FUNDING Corvia Medical.
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Achhra AC, Lyass A, Borowsky L, Bogorodskaya M, Plutzky J, Massaro JM, D'Agostino RB, Triant VA. Assessing Cardiovascular Risk in People Living with HIV: Current Tools and Limitations. Curr HIV/AIDS Rep 2021; 18:271-279. [PMID: 34247329 PMCID: PMC8733948 DOI: 10.1007/s11904-021-00567-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 05/24/2021] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE OF REVIEW To provide the current state of the development and application of cardiovascular disease (CVD) prediction tools in people living with HIV (PLWH). RECENT FINDINGS Several risk prediction models developed on the general population are available to predict CVD risk, the most notable being the US-based pooled cohort equations (PCE), the Framingham risk functions, and the Europe-based SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation). In validation studies in cohorts of PLWH, these models generally underestimate CVD risk, especially in individuals who are younger, women, Black race, or predicted to be at low/intermediate risk. An HIV-specific CVD prediction model, the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) model, is available, but its performance is modest, especially in US-based cohorts. Enhancing CVD prediction with novel biomarkers of inflammation or coronary artery calcification is of interest but has not yet been evaluated in PLWH. Finally, studies on CVD risk prediction are lacking in diverse PLWH globally. While available risk models for CVD prediction in PLWH remain suboptimal, clinicians should remain vigilant of higher CVD risk in this population and should use any of these risk scores for risk stratification to guide preventive interventions. Focus on established traditional risk factors such as smoking remains critical in PLWH. Risk prediction functions tailored to PLWH in diverse settings will enhance clinicians' ability to deliver optimal preventive care.
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Kammerlander AA, Lyass A, Mahoney TF, Massaro JM, Long MT, Vasan RS, Hoffmann U. Sex Differences in the Associations of Visceral Adipose Tissue and Cardiometabolic and Cardiovascular Disease Risk: The Framingham Heart Study. J Am Heart Assoc 2021; 10:e019968. [PMID: 33998254 PMCID: PMC8483556 DOI: 10.1161/jaha.120.019968] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Background Men and women are labeled as obese on the basis of a body mass index (BMI) using the same criterion despite known differences in their fat distributions. Subcutaneous adipose tissue and visceral adipose tissue (VAT), as measured by computed tomography, are advanced measures of obesity that closely correlate with cardiometabolic risk independent of BMI. However, it remains unknown whether prognostic significance of anthropometric measures of adiposity versus VAT varies in men versus women. Methods and Results In 3482 FHS (Framingham Heart Study) participants (48.1% women; mean age, 50.8±10.3 years), we tested the associations of computed tomography–based versus anthropometric measures of fat with cardiometabolic and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Mean follow‐up was 12.7±2.1 years. In men, VAT, as compared with BMI, had a similar strength of association with incident cardiometabolic risk factors (eg, adjusted odds ratio [OR], 2.36 [95% CI, 1.84–3.04] versus 2.66 [95% CI, 2.04–3.47] for diabetes mellitus) and CVD events (eg, adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.32 [95% CI, 0.97–1.80] versus 1.74 [95% CI, 1.14–2.65] for CVD death). In women, however, VAT, when compared with BMI, conferred a markedly greater association with incident cardiometabolic risk factors (eg, adjusted OR, 4.51 [95% CI, 3.13–6.50] versus 2.33 [95% CI, 1.88–3.04] for diabetes mellitus) as well as CVD events (eg, adjusted HR, 1.85 [95% CI, 1.26–2.71] versus 1.19 [95% CI, 1.01–1.40] for CVD death). Conclusions Anthropometric measures of obesity, including waist circumference and BMI, adequately capture VAT‐associated cardiometabolic and cardiovascular risk in men but not in women. In women, abdominal computed tomography–based VAT measures permit more precise assessment of obesity‐associated cardiometabolic and cardiovascular risk.
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Chow FC, Lyass A, Mahoney TF, Massaro JM, Triant VA, Wu K, Berzins B, Robertson K, Ellis RJ, Tassiopoulos K, Taiwo B, D'Agostino RB. Baseline 10-Year Cardiovascular Risk Scores Predict Cognitive Function in Older Persons, and Particularly Women, Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection. Clin Infect Dis 2021; 71:3079-3085. [PMID: 31899478 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciz1214] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/24/2019] [Accepted: 12/31/2019] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and associated comorbidities increase the risk of cognitive impairment in persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLWH). Given the potential composite effect of multiple cardiovascular risk factors on cognition, we examined the ability of the Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) risk score and the Framingham Heart Study Global CVD risk score (FRS) to predict future cognitive function in older PLWH. METHODS We constructed linear regression models evaluating the association between baseline 10-year cardiovascular risk scores and cognitive function (measured by a summary z-score, the NPZ-4) at a year 4 follow-up visit. RESULTS Among 988 participants (mean age, 52 years; 20% women), mean 10-year ASCVD risk score at entry into the cohort was 6.8% (standard deviation [SD], 7.1%) and FRS was 13.1% (SD, 10.7%). In models adjusted only for cognitive function at entry, the ASCVD risk score significantly predicted year 4 NPZ-4 in the entire cohort and after stratification by sex (for every 1% higher ASCVD risk, year 4 NPZ-4 was lower by 0.84 [SD, 0.28] overall, P = .003; lower by 2.17 [SD, 0.67] in women, P = .001; lower by 0.78 [SD, 0.32] in men, P = .016). A similar relationship was observed between FRS and year 4 NPZ-4. In multivariable models, higher 10-year ASCVD risk and FRS predicted lower NPZ-4 in women. CONCLUSIONS Baseline 10-year ASCVD risk and FRS predicted future cognitive function in older PLWH with well-controlled infection. Cardiovascular risk scores may help to identify PLWH, especially women, who are at risk for worse cognition over time.
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Islam N, Bukhari Q, Jameel Y, Shabnam S, Erzurumluoglu AM, Siddique MA, Massaro JM, D'Agostino RB. COVID-19 and climatic factors: A global analysis. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2021; 193:110355. [PMID: 33127399 PMCID: PMC7591297 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.110355] [Citation(s) in RCA: 78] [Impact Index Per Article: 19.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/13/2020] [Revised: 08/19/2020] [Accepted: 10/16/2020] [Indexed: 05/17/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND It is unknown if COVID-19 will exhibit seasonal pattern as other diseases e.g., seasonal influenza. Similarly, some environmental factors (e.g., temperature, humidity) have been shown to be associated with transmission of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, but global data on their association with COVID-19 are scarce. OBJECTIVE To examine the association between climatic factors and COVID-19. METHODS We used multilevel mixed-effects (two-level random-intercepts) negative binomial regression models to examine the association between 7- and 14-day-lagged temperature, humidity (relative and absolute), wind speed and UV index and COVID-19 cases, adjusting for Gross Domestic Products, Global Health Security Index, cloud cover (%), precipitation (mm), sea-level air-pressure (mb), and daytime length. The effects estimates are reported as adjusted rate ratio (aRR) and their corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS Data from 206 countries/regions (until April 20, 2020) with ≥100 reported cases showed no association between COVID-19 cases and 7-day-lagged temperature, relative humidity, UV index, and wind speed, after adjusting for potential confounders, but a positive association with 14-day-lagged temperature and a negative association with 14-day-lagged wind speed. Compared to an absolute humidity of <5 g/m3, an absolute humidity of 5-10 g/m3 was associated with a 23% (95% CI: 6-42%) higher rate of COVID-19 cases, while absolute humidity >10 g/m3 did not have a significant effect. These findings were robust in the 14-day-lagged analysis. CONCLUSION Our results of higher COVID-19 cases (through April 20) at absolute humidity of 5-10 g/m3 may be suggestive of a 'sweet point' for viral transmission, however only controlled laboratory experiments can decisively prove it.
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Zeleznik R, Foldyna B, Eslami P, Weiss J, Alexander I, Taron J, Parmar C, Alvi RM, Banerji D, Uno M, Kikuchi Y, Karady J, Zhang L, Scholtz JE, Mayrhofer T, Lyass A, Mahoney TF, Massaro JM, Vasan RS, Douglas PS, Hoffmann U, Lu MT, Aerts HJWL. Deep convolutional neural networks to predict cardiovascular risk from computed tomography. Nat Commun 2021; 12:715. [PMID: 33514711 PMCID: PMC7846726 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-20966-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 104] [Impact Index Per Article: 26.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/01/2020] [Accepted: 01/05/2021] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Coronary artery calcium is an accurate predictor of cardiovascular events. While it is visible on all computed tomography (CT) scans of the chest, this information is not routinely quantified as it requires expertise, time, and specialized equipment. Here, we show a robust and time-efficient deep learning system to automatically quantify coronary calcium on routine cardiac-gated and non-gated CT. As we evaluate in 20,084 individuals from distinct asymptomatic (Framingham Heart Study, NLST) and stable and acute chest pain (PROMISE, ROMICAT-II) cohorts, the automated score is a strong predictor of cardiovascular events, independent of risk factors (multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios up to 4.3), shows high correlation with manual quantification, and robust test-retest reliability. Our results demonstrate the clinical value of a deep learning system for the automated prediction of cardiovascular events. Implementation into clinical practice would address the unmet need of automating proven imaging biomarkers to guide management and improve population health.
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Taron J, Lyass A, Mahoney TF, Ehrbar RQ, Vasan RS, D'Agostino RB, Hoffmann U, Massaro JM, Lu MT. Coronary Artery Calcium Score-Directed Primary Prevention With Statins on the Basis of the 2018 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association/Multisociety Cholesterol Guidelines. J Am Heart Assoc 2020; 10:e018342. [PMID: 33348999 PMCID: PMC7955488 DOI: 10.1161/jaha.120.018342] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
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Bogorodskaya M, Lyass A, Mahoney TF, Borowsky LH, Sen P, Swirski FK, Srinivasa S, Longenecker CT, Massaro JM, D'Agostino RB, Triant VA. Utilization of absolute monocyte counts to predict cardiovascular events in people living with HIV. HIV Med 2020; 22:314-320. [PMID: 33295150 DOI: 10.1111/hiv.13018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 10/21/2020] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Cardiovascular risk is increased in people living with HIV (PLWH). In HIV-uninfected populations, total absolute monocyte count (AMC) has been shown to be predictive of future cardiovascular events (CVEs). We sought to determine whether AMC predicts CVEs in PLWH independent of established and HIV-related cardiovascular risk factors. METHODS We identified all PLWH within the Partners HIV Cohort without factors that could confound the monocyte count. CVE was defined as fatal or non-fatal acute myocardial infarction or ischaemic stroke. Baseline-measured AMC was defined as the average of all outpatient AMC counts a year before and after the baseline date. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association of baseline AMC with CVEs. RESULTS Our cohort consisted of 1980 patients, with median follow-up of 10.9 years and 182 CVEs. Mean (± SD) age was 41.9 ± 9.3 years; 73.0% were male. Mean CD4 count was 506.3 ± 307.1 cells/µL, 48% had HIV viral load (VL) < 400 copies/mL, and 87% were on antiretroviral therapy. Mean AMC was 0.38 × 103 ± 0.13 cells/µL. In multivariable modelling adjusted for traditional CV risk factors, CD4 cell count, and HIV VL, AMC quartile 2 (Q2) (HR = 1.01, P = 0.98), Q3 (HR = 1.07, P = 0.76), and Q4 (HR = 0.97, P = 0.89) were not significantly predictive of CVE compared with Q1. DISCUSSION Baseline AMC was not associated with long-term CVEs in PLWH. AMC obtained in routine clinical encounters does not appear to enhance CV risk stratification in PLWH.
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Janjua SA, Massaro JM, Chuang ML, D'Agostino RB, Hoffmann U, O'Donnell CJ. Thresholds for Abdominal Aortic Calcium That Predict Cardiovascular Disease Events in the Framingham Heart Study. JACC Cardiovasc Imaging 2020; 14:695-697. [PMID: 33221220 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcmg.2020.09.019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/28/2020] [Revised: 09/02/2020] [Accepted: 09/02/2020] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
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Klooster CCV', Bhatt DL, Steg PG, Massaro JM, Dorresteijn JAN, Westerink J, Ruigrok YM, de Borst GJ, Asselbergs FW, van der Graaf Y, Visseren FLJ. Predicting 10-year risk of recurrent cardiovascular events andcardiovascular interventions in patients with established cardiovascular disease: results from UCC-SMART and REACH. Int J Cardiol 2020; 325:140-148. [PMID: 32987048 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijcard.2020.09.053] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/22/2020] [Revised: 08/11/2020] [Accepted: 09/20/2020] [Indexed: 12/31/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Existing cardiovascular risk scores for patients with established cardiovascular disease (CVD) estimate residual risk of recurrent major cardiovascular events (MACE). The aim of the current study is to develop and externally validate a prediction model to estimate the 10-year combined risk of recurrent MACE and cardiovascular interventions (MACE+) in patients with established CVD. METHODS Data of patients with established CVD from the UCC-SMART cohort (N = 8421) were used for model development, and patient data from REACH Western Europe (N = 14,528) and REACH North America (N = 19,495) for model validation. Predictors were selected based on the existing SMART risk score. A Fine and Gray competing risk-adjusted 10-year risk model was developed for the combined outcome MACE+. The model was validated in all patients and in strata of coronary heart disease (CHD), cerebrovascular disease (CeVD), peripheral artery disease (PAD). RESULTS External calibration for 2-year risk in REACH Western Europe and REACH North America was good, c-statistics were moderate: 0.60 and 0.58, respectively. In strata of CVD at baseline good external calibration was observed in patients with CHD and CeVD, however, poor calibration was seen in patients with PAD. C-statistics for patients with CHD were 0.60 and 0.57, for patients with CeVD 0.62 and 0.61, and for patients with PAD 0.53 and 0.54 in REACH Western Europe and REACH North America, respectively. CONCLUSIONS The 10-year combined risk of recurrent MACE and cardiovascular interventions can be estimated in patients with established CHD or CeVD. However, cardiovascular interventions in patients with PAD could not be predicted reliably.
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Bukhari Q, Jameel Y, Massaro JM, D’Agostino RB, Khan S. Periodic Oscillations in Daily Reported Infections and Deaths for Coronavirus Disease 2019. JAMA Netw Open 2020; 3:e2017521. [PMID: 32804210 PMCID: PMC7431996 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.17521] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
This cross-sectional study investigates oscillatory patterns in daily reported infections and deaths for coronavirus disease 2019.
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Bukhari Q, Massaro JM, D’Agostino RB, Khan S. Effects of Weather on Coronavirus Pandemic. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2020; 17:E5399. [PMID: 32727067 PMCID: PMC7432279 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17155399] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/18/2020] [Revised: 07/21/2020] [Accepted: 07/24/2020] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has spread globally and has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. While influenza virus shows seasonality, it is unknown if COVID-19 has any weather-related affect. In this work, we analyze the patterns in local weather of all the regions affected by COVID-19 globally. Our results indicate that approximately 85% of the COVID-19 reported cases until 1 May 2020, making approximately 3 million reported cases (out of approximately 29 million tests performed) have occurred in regions with temperature between 3 and 17 °C and absolute humidity between 1 and 9 g/m3. Similarly, hot and humid regions outside these ranges have only reported around 15% or approximately 0.5 million cases (out of approximately 7 million tests performed). This suggests that weather might be playing a role in COVID-19 spread across the world. However, this role could be limited in US and European cities (above 45 N), as mean temperature and absolute humidity levels do not reach these ranges even during the peak summer months. For hot and humid countries, most of them have already been experiencing temperatures >35 °C and absolute humidity >9 g/m3 since the beginning of March, and therefore the effect of weather, however little it is, has already been accounted for in the COVID-19 spread in those regions, and they must take strict social distancing measures to stop the further spread of COVID-19. Our analysis showed that the effect of weather may have only resulted in comparatively slower spread of COVID-19, but not halted it. We found that cases in warm and humid countries have consistently increased, accounting for approximately 500,000 cases in regions with absolute humidity >9 g/m3, therefore effective public health interventions must be implemented to stop the spread of COVID-19. This also means that 'summer' would not alone stop the spread of COVID-19 in any part of the world.
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Islam N, Sharp SJ, Chowell G, Shabnam S, Kawachi I, Lacey B, Massaro JM, D'Agostino RB, White M. Physical distancing interventions and incidence of coronavirus disease 2019: natural experiment in 149 countries. BMJ 2020; 370:m2743. [PMID: 32669358 PMCID: PMC7360923 DOI: 10.1136/bmj.m2743] [Citation(s) in RCA: 326] [Impact Index Per Article: 65.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 07/08/2020] [Indexed: 12/22/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the association between physical distancing interventions and incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) globally. DESIGN Natural experiment using interrupted time series analysis, with results synthesised using meta-analysis. SETTING 149 countries or regions, with data on daily reported cases of covid-19 from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and data on the physical distancing policies from the Oxford covid-19 Government Response Tracker. PARTICIPANTS Individual countries or regions that implemented one of the five physical distancing interventions (closures of schools, workplaces, and public transport, restrictions on mass gatherings and public events, and restrictions on movement (lockdowns)) between 1 January and 30 May 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of covid-19 before and after implementation of physical distancing interventions, estimated using data to 30 May 2020 or 30 days post-intervention, whichever occurred first. IRRs were synthesised across countries using random effects meta-analysis. RESULTS On average, implementation of any physical distancing intervention was associated with an overall reduction in covid-19 incidence of 13% (IRR 0.87, 95% confidence interval 0.85 to 0.89; n=149 countries). Closure of public transport was not associated with any additional reduction in covid-19 incidence when the other four physical distancing interventions were in place (pooled IRR with and without public transport closure was 0.85, 0.82 to 0.88; n=72, and 0.87, 0.84 to 0.91; n=32, respectively). Data from 11 countries also suggested similar overall effectiveness (pooled IRR 0.85, 0.81 to 0.89) when school closures, workplace closures, and restrictions on mass gatherings were in place. In terms of sequence of interventions, earlier implementation of lockdown was associated with a larger reduction in covid-19 incidence (pooled IRR 0.86, 0.84 to 0.89; n=105) compared with a delayed implementation of lockdown after other physical distancing interventions were in place (pooled IRR 0.90, 0.87 to 0.94; n=41). CONCLUSIONS Physical distancing interventions were associated with reductions in the incidence of covid-19 globally. No evidence was found of an additional effect of public transport closure when the other four physical distancing measures were in place. Earlier implementation of lockdown was associated with a larger reduction in the incidence of covid-19. These findings might support policy decisions as countries prepare to impose or lift physical distancing measures in current or future epidemic waves.
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Brunner KT, Pedley A, Massaro JM, Hoffmann U, Benjamin EJ, Long MT. Increasing Liver Fat Is Associated With Incident Cardiovascular Risk Factors. Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol 2020; 18:1884-1886. [PMID: 31404666 PMCID: PMC7007830 DOI: 10.1016/j.cgh.2019.08.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/21/2019] [Revised: 07/26/2019] [Accepted: 08/02/2019] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with increased liver- and cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related morbidity and mortality. In cross-sectional analyses, NAFLD clusters with several cardiometabolic traits including obesity,1,2 hypertension,3 diabetes,1 and dyslipidemia.3 However, liver fat is dynamic and changes over time. Aside from limited prior studies evaluating diet or exercise interventions, little is known about the association between changes in liver fat and the incidence of CVD risk factors. Additionally, previous studies often have limited follow-up; evaluate only select populations, such as individuals with obesity4,5 or diabetes6-8; and may not account for changes in weight or body mass index (BMI). The aim of the present study was to examine, in a longitudinal cohort, the natural history of liver fat change and the association with the incidence of multiple CVD risk factors.
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Long MT, Massaro JM, Hoffmann U, Benjamin EJ, Naimi TS. Alcohol Use Is Associated With Hepatic Steatosis Among Persons With Presumed Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease. Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol 2020; 18:1831-1841.e5. [PMID: 31734449 PMCID: PMC7569606 DOI: 10.1016/j.cgh.2019.11.022] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/13/2019] [Revised: 11/01/2019] [Accepted: 11/08/2019] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS Many individuals presumed to have nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) consume moderate amounts of alcohol. Little is known about patterns of alcohol use in patients with NAFLD or how drinking behaviors affect liver fat. METHODS We conducted a cross-sectional study of 2475 participants of the Framingham Heart Study with hepatic steatosis, as determined by computed tomography. We performed multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models to evaluate the association between alcohol drinking patterns and hepatic steatosis. Models were adjusted for sociodemographic factors, diet, and the components of the metabolic syndrome. We excluded heavy alcohol users, defined as women who consume more than 14 alcohol drinks per week and men who consume more than 21 alcohol drinks per week. RESULTS In our sample (mean age, 49.8 ± 10.2 y; 50.3% women), the prevalence of hepatic steatosis was 17.5%. The total number of alcohol drinks per week and the maximum drinks consumed per drinking day each were associated with hepatic steatosis (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.15; 95% CI, 1.02-1.29 and aOR 1.15; 95% CI, 1.02-1.30). Binge drinking occurred in 25.4% of individuals with presumed NAFLD and was associated with an increased odds of hepatic steatosis (aOR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.06-1.98) among alcohol users. In a beverage-specific analysis, alcohol use patterns were associated with hepatic steatosis among beer drinkers, but not among wine drinkers. CONCLUSIONS In a cross-sectional study of participants of the Framingham Heart Study with hepatic steatosis, we observed an association between alcohol use and liver fat, even after excluding heavy alcohol users from our analysis. Alcohol use therefore appears to be a risk factor for NAFLD. Prospective studies are needed to validate these findings and determine if alcohol use should be a focus for research, prevention, and treatment of presumed NAFLD.
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Manini TM, Patel SM, Newman AB, Travison TG, Kiel DP, Shardell MD, Pencina KM, Wilson KE, Kelly TL, Massaro JM, Fielding RA, Magaziner J, Correa-de-Araujo R, Kwok TCY, Hirani V, Karlsson MK, DʼAgostino RB, Mellström D, Ohlsson C, Ribom E, Jordan JM, Bhasin S, Cawthon PM. Identification of Sarcopenia Components That Discriminate Slow Walking Speed: A Pooled Data Analysis. J Am Geriatr Soc 2020; 68:1419-1428. [PMID: 32633834 PMCID: PMC8018524 DOI: 10.1111/jgs.16524] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/30/2019] [Revised: 02/20/2020] [Accepted: 03/18/2020] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Sarcopenia Definitions and Outcomes Consortium (SDOC) sought to identify cut points for muscle strength and body composition measures derived from dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) that discriminate older adults with slow walking speed. This article presents the core analyses used to guide the SDOC position statements. DESIGN Cross-sectional data analyses of pooled data. SETTING University-based research assessment centers. PARTICIPANTS Community-dwelling men (n = 13,652) and women: (n = 5,115) with information on lean mass by DXA, grip strength (GR), and walking speed. MEASUREMENTS Thirty-five candidate sarcopenia variables were entered into sex-stratified classification and regression tree (CART) models to agnostically choose variables and cut points that discriminate slow walkers (<0.80 m/s). Models with alternative walking speed outcomes were also evaluated (<0.60 and <1.0 m/s and walking speed treated continuously). RESULTS CART models identified GR/body mass index (GRBMI) and GR/total body fat (GRTBF) as the primary discriminating variables for slowness in men and women, respectively. Men with GRBMI of 1.05 kg/kg/m2 or less were approximately four times more likely to be slow walkers than those with GRBMI of greater than 1.05 kg/kg/m2 . Women with GRTBF of less than 0.65 kg/kg were twice as likely to be slow walkers than women with GRTBF of 0.65 kg/kg or greater. Models with alternative walking speed outcomes selected only functions of GR as primary discriminators of slowness in both men and women. DXA-derived lean mass measures did not consistently discriminate slow walkers. CONCLUSION GR with and without adjustments for body size and composition consistently discriminated older adults with slowness. CART models did not select DXA-based lean mass as a primary discriminator of slowness. These results were presented to an SDOC Consensus Panel, who used them and other information to develop the SDOC Position Statements. J Am Geriatr Soc 68:1419-1428, 2020.
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