Torres Llergo J, Carrillo Bailén M, Segura Aumente JM, Fernández Olmo MR, Puentes Chiachío M, Fernández Guerrero JC, Ruiz Ortiz M. Incidence and prediction of hospitalization for heart failure in patients with atrial fibrillation: the REFLEJA scale.
Rev Esp Cardiol (Engl Ed) 2024:S1885-5857(24)00056-2. [PMID:
38382802 DOI:
10.1016/j.rec.2024.02.001]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2023] [Revised: 12/04/2023] [Accepted: 12/05/2023] [Indexed: 02/23/2024]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES
Hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) is common in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and is associated with increased mortality. The aims of this study were to determine the incidence of HHF, identify the clinical predictors of its occurrence, and develop a new risk scale.
METHODS
The incidence of HHF was estimated using data from the prospective single-center REFLEJA registry of outpatients with AF (October 2017-October 2018). A multivariate Cox regression model was calculated to detect HHF predictors, and a nomogram was created for individual risk assessment.
RESULTS
Of the 1499 patients included (mean age 73.8±11.1 years, 48.1% women), 127 had HHF (incidence rate of 8.51 per 100 persons/y) and 319 died (rate of death from any cause of 21.1 per 100 persons/y) after a 3-year follow-up. The independent predictors of HHF were age, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, pulmonary hypertension, previous pacemaker implantation, baseline use of diuretics, and moderate-severe aortic regurgitation. The c-statistic for predicting the event was 0.762 (95%CI after boostrapping resampling, 0.753-0.791). The cumulative incidences of the main outcome for the risk scale quartiles were 1.613 (Q1), 3.815 (Q2), 8.378 (Q3), and 20.436 (Q4) cases per 100 persons/y (P <.001).
CONCLUSIONS
HHF was common in this AF cohort. The combination of certain clinical characteristics can identify patients with a very high risk of HHF.
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