Does China have a public debate on genetically modified organisms? A discourse network analysis of public debate on Weibo

We examine stakeholder participation in the online debate on genetically modified organisms in China and assess how the debate has changed over time. Therefore, we compare messages posted between 2013 and 2020 on the Chinese microblog website Weibo by using discourse network analysis. Our findings reveal strong opposition to genetically modified crops, along with the existence of two competing coalitions of supporters and opponents. We further observe an increasing number of posts supporting genetically modified organisms by the public in recent years. Consequently, there is an indication that the positions of stakeholders have changed over time. We discuss the policy implications for China and draw conclusions for other countries.

Sustainable Production of the Cyanophycin Biopolymer in Tobacco in the Greenhouse and Field

The production of biodegradable polymers as coproducts of other commercially relevant plant components can be a sustainable strategy to decrease the carbon footprint and increase the commercial value of a plant. The biodegradable polymer cyanophycin granular polypeptide (CGP) was expressed in the leaves of a commercial tobacco variety, whose seeds can serve as a source for biofuel and feed. In T0 generation in the greenhouse, up to 11% of the leaf dry weight corresponded to the CGP. In T1 generation, the maximum content decreased to approximately 4% dw, both in the greenhouse and first field trial. In the field, a maximum harvest of 4 g CGP/plant could be obtained. Independent of the CGP content, most transgenic plants exhibited a slight yield penalty in the leaf biomass, especially under stress conditions in greenhouse and field trials. After the harvest, the leaves were either Sun dried or ensiled. The resulting material was used to evaluate the extraction of CGP compared to that in the laboratory protocol. The farm-level analysis indicates that the extraction of CGP from tobacco plants can provide alternative income opportunities for tobacco farmers. The CGP yield/ha indicates that the CGP production in plants can be economically feasible depending on the cultivation and extraction costs. Moreover, we analyzed the consumer acceptance of potential applications associated with GM tobacco in four European countries (Germany, Finland, Italy and the Netherlands) and found unexpectedly high acceptance.

The future of genome editing innovations in the EU

The European Commission (EC) recommends that policy within the EU should consider how to make the regulation of new genomic techniques 'more resilient, future-proof and uniformly applied' than is presently the case. In this article, we explore what this might mean for the EU and what solutions might exist.

The Economics of Regulating New Plant Breeding Technologies - Implications for the Bioeconomy Illustrated by a Survey Among Dutch Plant Breeders

New plant breeding technologies (NPBTs) are increasingly used for developing new plants with novel traits. The science tells us that those plants in general are as safe as than those once developed using "conventional" plant breeding methods. The knowledge about the induced changes and properties of the new plants by using NPBTs is more precise. This should lead to the conclusion that plants developed using NPBTs should not be regulated differently than those developed using "conventional" plant breeding methods. This contribution discusses the economics of regulating new plant breeding technologies. We first develop the theoretical model and elaborate on the different regulatory approaches being used and compare their advantages and disadvantages. Then we provide a perspectives on EU regulation around mutagenesis-based New Plant Breeding Techniques (NPBT), formed by new insights from a survey among Dutch plant breeding companies. The survey measures the attitude of breeding companies towards the ruling of the EU Court of Justice that subjected the use of CRISPR-Cas in the development of new plant varieties under the general EU regulations around GMOs. The results show that plant breeders experience a financial barrier because of the ruling, with perceived negative impact on competitiveness and investments in CRISPR-Cas as a result. The degree of negative impact differs however significantly among seed-sectors and company sizes. One of the most striking results was the relative optimism of companies in the sector about more lenient legislation in the next five years, despite the stated negative effects.

Storage Policies: Stockpiling Versus Immediate Release

Storage policies are used in many countries to smooth price volatility and thereby support food security. When there is a global decrease in food supply caused by a number of extreme weather effects, food reserves are expected to reduce the potential negative implications for households with low purchasing power. In this paper, the properties of such a stockpiling policy are assessed and compared to a policy with storage but without stockpiling. The results show that a stockholding policy is an expensive strategy that generates economic benefits only in extreme cases.

The Cost of Postponement of Bt Rice Commercialization in China

To maintain self-sufficiency in rice production and national food security, the Chinese government strongly supports research that aims at increasing the productivity of rice cultivation. Rice with genetic material from Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt rice) is transgenic rice that can reduce lepidopteran pest damage and the use of insecticides. It was developed in the 1990s and earned biosafety certificates in 2009. However, because of political reasons, its commercialization in China has been postponed, and, to date, Bt rice is not grown in China. We assess the opportunity cost of postponement of Bt rice commercialization in China between the years 2009 and 2019 and consider the external costs of pesticide use and potential technology spill-overs of Bt rice. We estimate the cost of postponement of Bt rice over the analyzed period to be 12 billion United States (US) dollars per year.

A comparison of the EU regulatory approach to directed mutagenesis with that of other jurisdictions, consequences for international trade and potential steps forward

A special regulatory regime applies to products of recombinant nucleic acid modifications. A ruling from the European Court of Justice has interpreted this regulatory regime in a way that it also applies to emerging mutagenesis techniques. Elsewhere regulatory progress is also ongoing. In 2015, Argentina launched a regulatory framework, followed by Chile in 2017 and recently Brazil and Colombia. In March 2018, the USDA announced that it will not regulate genome-edited plants differently if they could have also been developed through traditional breeding. Canada has an altogether different approach with their Plants with Novel Traits regulations. Australia is currently reviewing its Gene Technology Act. This article illustrates the deviation of the European Union's (EU's) approach from the one of most of the other countries studied here. Whereas the EU does not implement a case-by-case approach, this approach is taken by several other jurisdictions. Also, the EU court ruling adheres to a process-based approach while most other countries have a stronger emphasis on the regulation of the resulting product. It is concluded that, unless a functioning identity preservation system for products of directed mutagenesis can be established, the deviation results in a risk of asynchronous approvals and disruptions in international trade.

Investing in antibiotics to alleviate future catastrophic outcomes: What is the value of having an effective antibiotic to mitigate pandemic influenza?

Over 95% of post-mortem samples from the 1918 pandemic, which caused 50 to 100 million deaths, showed bacterial infection complications. The introduction of antibiotics in the 1940s has since reduced the risk of bacterial infections, but growing resistance to antibiotics could increase the toll from future influenza pandemics if secondary bacterial infections are as serious as in 1918, or even if they are less severe. We develop a valuation model of the option to withhold wide use of an antibiotic until significant outbreaks such as pandemic influenza or foodborne diseases are identified. Using real options theory, we derive conditions under which withholding wide use is beneficial, and calculate the option value for influenza pandemic scenarios that lead to secondary infections with a resistant Staphylococcus aureus strain. We find that the value of withholding an effective novel oral antibiotic can be positive and significant unless the pandemic is mild and causes few secondary infections with the resistant strain or if most patients can be treated intravenously. Although the option value is sensitive to parameter uncertainty, our results suggest that further analysis on a case-by-case basis could guide investment in novel agents as well as strategies on how to use them.

Getting an Imported GM Crop Approved in China

What are the procedures and trends for obtaining approval for imported genetically modified (GM) crops in China, and how do approval dates and length of approval in China compare with those in other countries? The answers are crucial for current food security in China and the future of crops derived by gene editing.

Perspective: regulation of pest and disease control strategies and why (many) economists are concerned

Pests and diseases are a continuous challenge in agriculture production. A wide range of control strategies have been and will continue to be developed. New control strategies are in almost all countries around the world assessed prior to approval for use in farmers' fields. This is rightly so to avoid and even reduce negative effects for human health and the environment. Over the past decades the approval processes have become increasingly politicized resulting in an increase in the direct approval costs and the length in approval time without increasing the safety of the final product. This reduces the development of control strategies and often has negative human health and environmental effects. Possibilities exist for improvements. They include reducing approval costs and approval time by streamlining the approval process and substituting approval requirements by strengthening ex-post liability. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry.

New Plant Breeding Techniques Under Food Security Pressure and Lobbying

Different countries have different regulations for the approval and cultivation of crops developed by using new plant breeding technologies (NPBTs) such as gene editing. In this paper, we investigate the relationship between global food security and the level of NPBT regulation assuming a World Nation Official (WNO) proposes advice on global NPBT food policies. We show that a stricter NPBT food regulation reduces food security as measured by food availability, access, and utilization. We also find that political rivalry among interest groups worsens the food security status, given the NPBT food technology is more productive and the regulatory policy is influenced by lobbying. When the WNO aims to improve food security and weighs the NPBT food lobby contribution more than the non-NPBT food lobby's in the lobbying game, the total lobbying contributions will be the same for the WNO, and the NPBT food lobby will be more successful in the political process. The NPBT food lobby, however, under food security loses its advantage in the political competition, and this may result in a strict NPBT food policy. Under food security problems implementing stricter NPBT food regulations results in welfare losses. JEL Code: D04, D43, D72, P16.

Foregone benefits of important food crop improvements in Sub-Saharan Africa

A number of new crops have been developed that address important traits of particular relevance for smallholder farmers in Africa. Scientists, policy makers, and other stakeholders have raised concerns that the approval process for these new crops causes delays that are often scientifically unjustified. This article develops a real option model for the optimal regulation of a risky technology that enhances economic welfare and reduces malnutrition. We consider gradual adoption of the technology and show that delaying approval reduces uncertainty about perceived risks of the technology. Optimal conditions for approval incorporate parameters of the stochastic processes governing the dynamics of risk. The model is applied to three cases of improved crops, which either are, or are expected to be, delayed by the regulatory process. The benefits and costs of the crops are presented in a partial equilibrium that considers changes in adoption over time and the foregone benefits caused by a delay in approval under irreversibility and uncertainty. We derive the equilibrium conditions where the net-benefits of the technology equal the costs that would justify a delay. The sooner information about the safety of the technology arrive, the lower the costs for justifying a delay need to be i.e. it pays more to delay. The costs of a delay can be substantial: e.g. a one year delay in approval of the pod-borer resistant cowpea in Nigeria will cost the country about 33 million USD to 46 million USD and between 100 and 3,000 lives.

Estimating the recreational-use value for hiking in Bellenden Ker National Park, Australia

The recreational-use value of hiking in the Bellenden Ker National Park, Australia has been estimated using a zonal travel cost model. Multiple destination visitors have been accounted for by converting visitors' own ordinal ranking of the various sites visited to numerical weights, using an expected-value approach. The value of hiking and camping in this national park was found to be dollar AUS 250,825 per year, or dollar AUS 144,45 per visitor per year, which is similar to findings from other studies valuing recreational benefits. The management of the park can use these estimates when considering the introduction of a system of user pays fees. In addition, they might be important when decisions need to be made about the allocation of resources for maintenance or upgrade of tracks and facilities.