The Geriatric Prognostic Index: a clinical prediction model for survival of older diffuse large B-cell lymphoma patients treated with standard immunochemotherapy

The International prognostic Index (IPI) is the most widely used clinical prediction model for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) patients treated with rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine and prednisone (R-CHOP), but may be suboptimal in older patients. We aimed to develop and externally validate a clinical prediction model for older, RCHOP- treated DLBCL patients by examining geriatric assessment and lymphoma-related parameters in real-world cohorts. A population-based training set of 365 R-CHOP-treated DLBCL patients ≥70 years was identified through the Cancer Registry of Norway. The external test set consisted of a population-based cohort of 193 patients. Data on candidate predictors were retrieved from the Cancer Registry and through review of clinical records. Cox regression models for 2-year overall survival were used for model selection. Activities of daily living, the Charlson Comorbidity Index, age, sex, albumin, stage, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status and lactate dehydrogenase level were identified as independent predictors and combined into a Geriatric Prognostic Index (GPI). The GPI demonstrated good discrimination (optimismcorrected C-index 0.752), and identified low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups with significantly different survivals (2- year overall survival, 94%, 65%, and 25%, respectively). At external validation, the continuous and grouped GPI demonstrated good discrimination (C-index 0.727 and 0.710, respectively) and the GPI groups had significantly different survivals (2-year overall survival 95%, 65%, and 44%, respectively). Both the continuous and grouped GPI showed better discrimination than the IPI, revised-IPI and National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN)-IPI (C-index 0.621, 0.583, and 0.670, respectively). In conclusion, we have developed and externally validated a GPI for older DLBCL patients treated with R-CHOP that outperformed the IPI, revised-IPI and NCCN-IPI. A web-based calculator is available at https://wide.shinyapps. io/GPIcalculator/.

Physical fitness is a modifiable predictor of early cardiovascular death: A 35-year follow-up study of 2014 healthy middle-aged men

Background

Physical fitness has been shown to predict cardiovascular death during long-term follow-up. In the present study we aimed to investigate how physical fitness and other cardiovascular risk factors at middle-age influenced the risk of cardiovascular death during the early (0–11 years), intermediate (12–23 years) and late (24–35 years) parts of a 35-year observation period.

Methods and results

Age-adjusted physical fitness was calculated in 2014 apparently healthy, middle-aged men after maximal bicycle electrocardiogram-tests in 1972–1975 (Survey 1) and 1979–1982 (Survey 2). The men were assessed through 35 years after Survey 1, and 28 years after Survey 2 by Cox proportional hazards models. Low Survey 1 physical fitness was independently associated with increased risks of early and intermediate, but not late, cardiovascular death. Survey 1 to Survey 2 change in physical fitness, age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure and cholesterol impacted cardiovascular death risks in all periods. Family history of coronary heart disease impacted early and intermediate, but not late, cardiovascular death.

Conclusions

Most classical cardiovascular risk factors were strong predictors of early, intermediate and late cardiovascular death. Physical fitness measured at median age 50 years was independently associated with risk of early cardiovascular death, but the association weakened as time progressed. Change in physical fitness during middle-age impacted cardiovascular death risk in a full lifetime perspective. Thus, our data suggest that physical fitness is a modifiable cardiovascular risk factor with limited duration in contrast to the sustained impact of smoking, blood pressure and cholesterol on cardiovascular mortality.

A changing relationship between disability and survival in the elderly population: differences by age

BACKGROUND

Longitudinal studies estimating the association between disability and mortality in the elderly population have typically assumed disability constant through the follow-up study period. Current knowledge indicates that such assumptions may not be appropriate. Our purpose was to examine this association (disability and mortality) taking into account the transitions in the disablement process.

METHODS

1,294 participants (aged 65 and over) in the Health Interview Survey of Barcelona were followed up for a median of 8 years. Nine basic activities of daily living (ADLs) were measured at baseline and at the end of follow-up. Individuals were defined as "dependent" if they reported not being able to perform one or more of the activities without assistance. Survival analysis with delayed entry, age as the time variable, and disability as a time-dependent variable was performed.

RESULTS

The rates of disability had increased by the end of the follow-up (from 42.0 to 60.0% among women and from 30.0 to 48.0%, among men); 7.5% of disabled women at baseline and 28.5% of men recovered from disability. The adjusted relative risk of dying for those with basic ADLs dependency varied with age: at 80 years of age it was 3.5 for women and 1.8 for men, while at 90 years it was 1.9 and 1.2, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Disability increases monotonically over time while the risk of mortality associated with disability varies with gender and age. Elderly disabled women should be considered a target group for intervention because they show higher rates of disability and are less likely to recover from disability. Our results illustrate the need to consider disability status as a time-dependent variable, to avoid an underestimation of its association with mortality.