Frequentist rules for regulatory approval of subgroups in phase III trials: A fresh look at an old problem

Background

The number of Phase III trials that include a biomarker in design and analysis has increased due to interest in personalised medicine. For genetic mutations and other predictive biomarkers, the trial sample comprises two subgroups, one of which, say B+ is known or suspected to achieve a larger treatment effect than the other B−. Despite treatment effect heterogeneity, trials often draw patients from both subgroups, since the lower responding B− subgroup may also gain benefit from the intervention. In this case, regulators/commissioners must decide what constitutes sufficient evidence to approve the drug in the B− population.

Methods and Results

Assuming trial analysis can be completed using generalised linear models, we define and evaluate three frequentist decision rules for approval. For rule one, the significance of the average treatment effect in B− should exceed a pre-defined minimum value, say ZB−>L. For rule two, the data from the low-responding group B− should increase statistical significance. For rule three, the subgroup-treatment interaction should be non-significant, using type I error chosen to ensure that estimated difference between the two subgroup effects is acceptable. Rules are evaluated based on conditional power, given that there is an overall significant treatment effect. We show how different rules perform according to the distribution of patients across the two subgroups and when analyses include additional (stratification) covariates in the analysis, thereby conferring correlation between subgroup effects.

Conclusions

When additional conditions are required for approval of a new treatment in a lower response subgroup, easily applied rules based on minimum effect sizes and relaxed interaction tests are available. Choice of rule is influenced by the proportion of patients sampled from the two subgroups but less so by the correlation between subgroup effects.

The contribution of the anaesthetist to risk-adjusted mortality after cardiac surgery

It is widely accepted that the performance of the operating surgeon affects outcomes, and this has led to the publication of surgical results in the public domain. However, the effect of other members of the multidisciplinary team is unknown. We studied the effect of the anaesthetist on mortality after cardiac surgery by analysing data collected prospectively over ten years of consecutive cardiac surgical cases from ten UK centres. Casemix‐adjusted outcomes were analysed in models that included random‐effects for centre, surgeon and anaesthetist. All cardiac surgical operations for which the EuroSCORE model is appropriate were included, and the primary outcome was in‐hospital death up to three months postoperatively. A total of 110 769 cardiac surgical procedures conducted between April 2002 and March 2012 were studied, which included 127 consultant surgeons and 190 consultant anaesthetists. The overwhelming factor associated with outcome was patient risk, accounting for 95.75% of the variation for in‐hospital mortality. The impact of the surgeon was moderate (intra‐class correlation coefficient 4.00% for mortality), and the impact of the anaesthetist was negligible (0.25%). There was no significant effect of anaesthetist volume above ten cases per year. We conclude that mortality after cardiac surgery is primarily determined by the patient, with small but significant differences between surgeons. Anaesthetists did not appear to affect mortality. These findings do not support public disclosure of cardiac anaesthetists' results, but substantially validate current UK cardiac anaesthetic training and practice. Further research is required to establish the potential effects of very low anaesthetic caseloads and the effect of cardiac anaesthetists on patient morbidity.

Clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of endobronchial and endoscopic ultrasound relative to surgical staging in potentially resectable lung cancer: results from the ASTER randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of endosonography (followed by surgical staging if endosonography was negative), compared with standard surgical staging alone, in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who are otherwise candidates for surgery with curative intent.

DESIGN

A prospective, international, open-label, randomised controlled study, with a trial-based economic analysis.

SETTING

Four centres: Ghent University Hospital, Belgium; Leuven University Hospitals, Belgium; Leiden University Medical Centre, the Netherlands; and Papworth Hospital, UK.

PARTICIPANTS

INCLUSION CRITERIA

known/suspected NSCLC, with suspected mediastinal lymph node involvement; otherwise eligible for surgery with curative intent; clinically fit for endosonography and surgery; and no evidence of metastatic disease.

EXCLUSION CRITERIA

previous lung cancer treatment; concurrent malignancy; uncorrected coagulopathy; and not suitable for surgical staging.

INTERVENTIONS

Study patients were randomised to either surgical staging alone (n = 118) or endosonography followed by surgical staging if endosonography was negative (n = 123). Endosonography diagnostic strategy used endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration combined with endobronchial ultrasound-guided transbronchial needle aspiration, followed by surgical staging if these tests were negative. Patients with no evidence of mediastinal metastases or tumour invasion were referred for surgery with curative intent. If evidence of malignancy was found, patients were referred for chemoradiotherapy.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The main clinical outcomes were sensitivity (positive diagnostic test/nodal involvement during any diagnostic test or thoracotomy) and negative predictive value (NPV) of each diagnostic strategy for the detection of N2/N3 metastases, unnecessary thoracotomy and complication rates. The primary economic outcome was cost-utility of the endosonography strategy compared with surgical staging alone, up to 6 months after randomisation, from a UK NHS perspective.

RESULTS

Clinical and resource-use data were available for all 241 patients, and complete utilities were available for 144. Sensitivity for detecting N2/N3 metastases was 79% [41/52; 95% confidence interval (CI) 66% to 88%] for the surgical arm compared with 94% (62/66; 95% CI 85% to 98%) for the endosonography strategy (p = 0.02). Corresponding NPVs were 86% (66/77; 95% CI 76% to 92%) and 93% (57/61; 95% CI 84% to 97%; p = 0.26). There were 21/118 (18%) unnecessary thoracotomies in the surgical arm compared with 9/123 (7%) in the endosonography arm (p = 0.02). Complications occurred in 7/118 (6%) in the surgical arm and 6/123 (5%) in the endosonography arm (p = 0.78): one pneumothorax related to endosonography and 12 complications related to surgical staging. Patients in the endosonography arm had greater EQ-5D (European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions) utility at the end of staging (0.117; 95% CI 0.042 to 0.192; p = 0.003). There were no other significant differences in utility. The main difference in resource use was the number of thoracotomies: 66% patients in the surgical arm compared with 53% in the endosonography arm. Resource use was similar between the groups in all other items. The 6-month cost of the endosonography strategy was £9713 (95% CI £7209 to £13,307) per patient versus £10,459 (£7732 to £13,890) for the surgical arm, mean difference £746 (95% CI -£756 to £2494). The mean difference in quality-adjusted life-year was 0.015 (95% CI -0.023 to 0.052) in favour of endosonography, so this strategy was cheaper and more effective.

CONCLUSIONS

Endosonography (followed by surgical staging if negative) had higher sensitivity and NPVs, resulted in fewer unnecessary thoracotomies and better quality of life during staging, and was slightly more effective and less expensive than surgical staging alone. Future work could investigate the need for confirmatory mediastinoscopy following negative endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration (EUS-FNA) and endobronchial ultrasound-guided transbronchial needle aspiration (EBUS-TBNA), the diagnostic accuracy of EUS-FNA or EBUS-TBNA separately and the delivery of both EUS-FNA or EBUS-TBNA by suitably trained chest physicians.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN 97311620.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 16, No. 18. See the HTA programme website for further project information.

Expansion of the kidney donor pool by using cardiac death donors with prolonged time to cardiorespiratory arrest

Donation after Cardiac Death (DCD) is an increasingly important source of kidney transplants, but because of concerns of ischemic injury during the agonal phase, many centers abandon donation if cardiorespiratory arrest has not occurred within 1 h of controlled withdrawal of life-supporting treatment (WLST). We report the impact on donor numbers and transplant function using instead a minimum 'cut-off' time of 4 h. The agonal phase of 173 potential DCD donors was characterized according to the presence or absence of: acidemia; lactic acidosis; prolonged (>30 min) hypotension, hypoxia or oliguria, and the impact of these characteristics on 3- and 12-month transplant outcome evaluated by multivariable regression analysis. Of the 117 referrals who became donors, 27 (23.1%) arrested more than 1 h after WLST. Longer agonal-phase times were associated with greater donor instability, but surprisingly neither agonal-phase instability nor its duration influenced transplant outcome. In contrast, 3- and 12-month eGFR in the 190 transplanted kidneys was influenced independently by donor age, and 3-month eGFR by cold ischemic time. DCD kidney numbers are increased by 30%, without compromising transplant outcome, by lengthening the minimum waiting time after WLST from 1 to 4 h.

Expansion of the kidney donor pool by using cardiac death donors with prolonged time to cardiorespiratory arrest

Donation after Cardiac Death (DCD) is an increasingly important source of kidney transplants, but because of concerns of ischemic injury during the agonal phase, many centers abandon donation if cardiorespiratory arrest has not occurred within 1 h of controlled withdrawal of life-supporting treatment (WLST). We report the impact on donor numbers and transplant function using instead a minimum 'cut-off' time of 4 h. The agonal phase of 173 potential DCD donors was characterized according to the presence or absence of: acidemia; lactic acidosis; prolonged (>30 min) hypotension, hypoxia or oliguria, and the impact of these characteristics on 3- and 12-month transplant outcome evaluated by multivariable regression analysis. Of the 117 referrals who became donors, 27 (23.1%) arrested more than 1 h after WLST. Longer agonal-phase times were associated with greater donor instability, but surprisingly neither agonal-phase instability nor its duration influenced transplant outcome. In contrast, 3- and 12-month eGFR in the 190 transplanted kidneys was influenced independently by donor age, and 3-month eGFR by cold ischemic time. DCD kidney numbers are increased by 30%, without compromising transplant outcome, by lengthening the minimum waiting time after WLST from 1 to 4 h.

Disease-specific survival benefit of lung transplantation in adults: a national cohort study

The lung transplantation candidate population is heterogeneous and survival benefit has not been established for all patient groups. UK data from a cohort of 1997 adult (aged > or = 16), first lung transplant candidates (listed July 1995 to July 2006, follow-up to December 2007) were analyzed by diagnosis, to assess mortality relative to continued listing. Donor lungs were primarily allocated according to local criteria. Diagnosis groups studied were cystic fibrosis (430), bronchiectasis (123), pulmonary hypertension (74), diffuse parenchymal lung disease (564), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD, 647) and other (159). The proportion of patients in each group who died while listed varied significantly (respectively 37%, 48%, 41%, 49%, 19%, 38%). All groups had an increased risk of death at transplant, which fell below waiting list risk of death within 4.3 months. Thereafter, the hazard ratio for death relative to listing ranged from 0.34 for cystic fibrosis to 0.64 for COPD (p < 0.05 all groups except pulmonary hypertension). Mortality reduction was greater after bilateral lung transplantation in pulmonary fibrosis patients (p = 0.049), but not in COPD patients. Transplantation appeared to improve survival for all groups. Differential waiting list and posttransplant mortality by diagnosis suggest further use and development of algorithms to inform lung allocation.

Clinical and cost-effectiveness analysis of an open label, single-centre, randomised trial of spinal cord stimulation (SCS) versus percutaneous myocardial laser revascularisation (PMR) in patients with refractory angina pectoris: The SPiRiT trial

Background

Patients with refractory angina have significant morbidity. This study aimed to compare two of the treatment options, Spinal Cord Stimulation (SCS) and Percutaneous Myocardial Laser Revascularisation (PMR) in terms of clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness.

Methods

Eligible patients were randomised to PMR or SCS and followed up for exercise tolerance time (ETT), Canadian Cardiovascular Society (CCS) classification and the quality of life measures SF-36, Seattle Angina Questionnaire and the EuroQoL at 3, 12 and 24 months. Utilities were calculated using the EQ-5D and these and costs were compared between groups. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per QALY for SCS compared to PMR was also calculated.

Results

At 24 months post-randomisation, patients that had SCS and PMR had similar ETT (mean difference 0.05, 95% CI -2.08, 2.18, p = 0.96) and there was no difference in CCS classification or quality of life outcomes. The difference in overall mean costs when comparing SCS to PMR was GBP5,520 (95% CI GBP1,966 to GBP8,613; p < 0.01) and the ICER of using SCS was GBP46,000 per QALY.

Conclusion

Outcomes after SCS did not differ appreciably from those after PMR, with the former procedure being less cost-effective as currently applied. Larger studies could clarify which patients would most benefit from SCS, potentially increasing cost-effectiveness.

Trial registration

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN09648950

Flexible random-effects models using Bayesian semi-parametric models: applications to institutional comparisons

Random effects models are used in many applications in medical statistics, including meta-analysis, cluster randomized trials and comparisons of health care providers. This paper provides a tutorial on the practical implementation of a flexible random effects model based on methodology developed in Bayesian non-parametrics literature, and implemented in freely available software. The approach is applied to the problem of hospital comparisons using routine performance data, and among other benefits provides a diagnostic to detect clusters of providers with unusual results, thus avoiding problems caused by masking in traditional parametric approaches. By providing code for Winbugs we hope that the model can be used by applied statisticians working in a wide variety of applications.

Double-blind, randomised, controlled trial assessing controller medications in asthma

BACKGROUND

The motive behind conducting this study was to determine if better control of asthma can be achieved by adding a second controller medication and to assess its use to reduce the dose of inhaled steroids.

OBJECTIVES

The study aimed to determine whether either oral sustained-release theophylline or montelukast added to inhaled steroids improved clinical symptoms and pulmonary function test parameters when compared to high-dose steroids alone.

METHODS

Ninety patients with incompletely controlled asthma were allocated, in a randomised, double-blind fashion, to one of three treatment groups: group A: double dose of inhaled budesonide (400 microg b.i.d.), group B: 400 mg oral sustained-release theophylline plus budesonide (200 microg b.i.d.) and group C: 10 mg montelukast plus budesonide (200 microg b.i.d.). The primary endpoints were forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV(1)) and mean morning peak expiratory flow rate (PEFR).

RESULTS

All three groups had improved FEV(1) and PEFR at 8 weeks (p < 0.001). Group C increased their PEFR by 18.7 l/min (95% confidence interval, CI, 12.4-25.1) more than group A and by 19.8 l/min (95% CI 13.4-26.1) more than group B (both p = 0.001). Similarly, group C had a 114 ml (95% CI 45-183 ml) greater improvement in FEV(1) than group A and a 95 ml (95% CI 26-164 ml) greater improvement than group B (both p = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Addition of montelukast to budesonide is safe and results in greater improvement in pulmonary function test parameters than high-dose budesonide treatment or addition of theophylline.

Bayesian evidence synthesis to extrapolate survival estimates in cost-effectiveness studies

This paper is concerned with survival extrapolation that represents an integral part of cost-effectiveness analysis. In the absence of long-term survival estimates from randomized clinical trials or meta-analysis we show how age-sex matched U.K. population data can additionally be used to estimate survival patterns. We adopt a Bayesian approach and we synthesize evidence from different sources such as patient registries, U.K. population statistics and meta-analyses. We also present methodology for Bayesian analysis of the additive hazards model and we show how to apply the techniques using freely available software. The methods are illustrated using data from a cohort of cardiac arrhythmia patients.

Comparison of shuttle walk with measured peak oxygen consumption in patients with operable lung cancer

BACKGROUND

The relationship between the shuttle walk test and peak oxygen consumption in patients with lung cancer has not previously been reported. A study was undertaken to examine this relationship in patients referred for lung cancer surgery to test the hypothesis that the shuttle walk test would be useful in this clinical setting.

METHODS

125 consecutive patients with potentially operable lung cancer were prospectively recruited. Each performed same day shuttle walking and treadmill walking tests.

RESULTS

Shuttle walk distances ranged from 104 m to 1020 m and peak oxygen consumption ranged from 9 to 35 ml/kg/min. The shuttle walk distance significantly correlated with peak oxygen consumption (r = 0.67, p<0.001). All 55 patients who achieved more than 400 m on the shuttle test had a peak oxygen consumption of at least 15 ml/kg/min. Seventy of 125 patients failed to achieve 400 m on the shuttle walk test; in 22 of these the peak oxygen consumption was less than 15 ml/kg/min. Nine of 17 patients who achieved less than 250 m had a peak oxygen consumption of more than 15 ml/kg/min.

CONCLUSION

The shuttle walk is a useful exercise test to assess potentially operable lung cancer patients with borderline lung function. However, it tends to underestimate exercise capacity at the lower range compared with peak oxygen consumption. Our data suggest that patients achieving 400 m on the shuttle walk test do not require formal measurement of oxygen consumption. In patients failing to achieve this distance we recommend assessment of peak oxygen consumption, particularly in those unable to walk 250 m, because a considerable proportion would still qualify for surgery as they had an acceptable peak oxygen consumption.

Octogenarians undergoing cardiac surgery outlive their peers: a case for early referral

OBJECTIVE

To examine short and long term outcomes of octogenarians having heart operations and to analyse the interaction between patient and treatment factors.

METHODS

Multivariate analysis of prospectively collected data and a survival comparison with an age and sex matched national population. The outcomes were base in-hospital mortality, risk stratified by logistic EuroSCORE (European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation), and long term survival.

RESULTS

12,461 consecutive patients (706 over 80 years) operated on between 1996 and 2003 in a regional UK unit were studied. Octogenarians more often had impaired ventricular function, pulmonary hypertension, and valve operations. They also included a higher proportion of women, had a higher serum creatinine concentration, and had a trend towards more unstable angina. Younger patients had a higher prevalence of previous cardiac operation, previous myocardial infarction, and diabetes. The in-hospital mortality rate was 3.9% for all patients (EuroSCORE predicted 6.1%, p < 0.001) and 9.8% for octogenarians (predicted 14.1%, p = 0.002). Long bypass time and non-elective surgery increased the risk of death above EuroSCORE prediction in both groups. A greater proportion of octogenarians stayed in intensive care more than 24 hours (37% v 23%, p < 0.001). Long term survival was significantly better in the study patients than in a general population with the same age-sex distribution (survival rate at five years 82.1% v 55.9%, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Cardiac surgery in a UK population of octogenarians produced excellent results. Elective referrals should be encouraged in all age groups.

Extended Ganciclovir Prophylaxis in Lung Transplantation

BACKGROUND

Positive cytomegaloviral status of the donor or of the recipient adversely affects survival and enhances the development of bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS) in lung transplant recipients. The role of ganciclovir prophylaxis in cytomegalovirus infection in respect to obliterative bronchiolitis or to BOS development is not known.

METHODS

From the Papworth transplant database, we identified 146 patients who received organs from cytomegalovirus-positive donors. We classified patients into 3 groups as follows: Group 1 consisted of 42 patients who underwent transplantation between 1990 and 1992 when no prophylaxis was given; Group 2 consisted of 49 patients who underwent transplantation between 1992 and 1995 when 4 weeks of IV ganciclovir was given as prophylaxis; and Group 3 consisted of 55 patients who underwent transplantation between 1995 and 1998 when cytomegalovirus prophylaxis consisted of IV (1 week) followed by oral ganciclovir for a total of 3 months. Donor management, recipient management during and after surgery, and pharmacotherapy were uniform during the study period. We used survival and regression methods to compare these groups, adjusting for the transplantation type (single lung, double lung, or heart-lung) and for HLA typing.

RESULTS

We found a significant difference among all 3 groups in numbers of cytomegaloviral disease episodes in the 1st year after transplantation. The number of rejection episodes in the 3 groups during the 1st post-transplant year gradually decreased from Group 1 to Group 3. We identified no statistically significant benefit in the time to BOS occurrence or in actuarial survival.

CONCLUSION

Extended prophylaxis with IV and oral ganciclovir practically abolishes cytomegaloviral disease and is related to a decreased incidence of rejection episodes. However, ganciclovir prophylaxis is not related to a decreased incidence or progression of BOS or survival.

Inflammatory related changes in bone mineral content in adults with cystic fibrosis

BACKGROUND

Proinflammatory cytokines stimulate osteoclast activity and this could lead to increased bone resorption in patients with cystic fibrosis. The aim of this study was to determine whether markers of systemic inflammation are related to changes in bone mineral content (BMC) in adults with cystic fibrosis.

METHODS

Total body BMC was assessed by dual energy x ray absorptiometry in 100 patients (54 male) of mean (SD) age 25.6 (7.1) years and forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV(1)) 61.8 (24.1)% predicted on recruitment to the study and 1 year later. Blood was also taken at these time points to measure markers of systemic inflammation.

RESULTS

After 1 year BMC had reduced by 16.1 (62.1) g, p = 0.01; (0.6 (2.8)%). The change in BMC was related to mean levels of interleukin (IL)-6 (r(s) = -0.39, p<0.001) and C reactive protein (r(s) = -0.34, p = 0.002), intravenous antibiotic use (r(s) = -0.27, p = 0.006) and oral corticosteroid use (r(s) = -0.20, p = 0.045). Urinary markers of osteoclast activity were also related to IL-6 (r(s) = 0.27, p = 0.02). Multiple linear regression revealed that IL-6 (coefficient -2.2 (95% CI -3.4 to -1.0) per pg/ml, p = 0.001), colonisation with Burkholderia cepacia (coefficient -46.8 (95% CI -75.5 to -18.1), p = 0.002), and annual change in BMI (coefficient 15.4 (95% CI 3.6 to 27.2) per kg/m(2), p = 0.011) were independently significant predictors of annual change in BMC.

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest a pathophysiological mechanism by which chronic pulmonary infection results in bone loss in patients with cystic fibrosis.

Performance status score: do patients and their oncologists agree?

Oncologists traditionally assess their patients' ECOG performance status (PS), and few studies have evaluated the accuracy of these assessments. In this study, 101 patients attending a rapid access clinic at Papworth Hospital with a diagnosis of lung cancer were asked to assess their own ECOG PS score on a scale between 0 and 4. Patients' scores were compared to the PS assessment of them made by their oncologists. Of 98 patients with primary non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and small-cell lung cancer (SCLC), weighted kappa statistics showed PS score agreement between patient and oncologist of 0.45. Both patient- and oncologist-assessed scores reflected survival duration (in NSCLC and SCLC) as well as disease stage (in NSCLC), with oncologist-assessed scores being only marginally more predictive of survival. There was no sex difference in patient assessment of PS scores, but oncologists scored female patients more pessimistically than males. This study showed that, with few exceptions, patients and oncologists assessed PS scores similarly. Although oncologists should continue to score PS objectively, it may benefit their clinical practice to involve their patients in these assessments.

The use of hospital admission data as a measure of outcome in clinical studies of heart failure

AIM

To describe and evaluate the methods currently used to summarize, depict, and analyse hospitalization data in clinical studies of patients with heart failure.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Studies published during 1999 and 2000 were reviewed if they reported hospitalization data collected during the follow-up of a defined group of adults who had been diagnosed as having heart failure. Of 130 studies identified, the majority considered only the first of any hospital admissions for each individual. When presented, statistical analyses in 70% of papers, and graphics in 75% of papers, were based purely on the first hospitalization. A minority of papers based analyses on the number of admissions (23%), or the amount of time spent in hospital by patients (14%) during the follow-up period.

CONCLUSIONS

Data on the hospitalizations undergone by patients with heart failure are potentially informative about the disease burden to individuals and health services. The widespread practice of focussing a statistical analysis on the first admission a patient undergoes discards those aspects of hospitalization that are informative about disease burden: multiple admissions and length of stay. Statistical methods that incorporate these aspects appeared in a handful of papers, and the more widespread adoption of these is desirable.

A randomised controlled crossover trial of nurse practitioner versus doctor led outpatient care in a bronchiectasis clinic

BACKGROUND

With the decrease in junior doctor hours, the advent of specialist registrars, and the availability of highly trained and experienced nursing personnel, the service needs of patients with chronic respiratory diseases attending routine outpatient clinics may be better provided by appropriately trained nurse practitioners.

METHODS

A randomised controlled crossover trial was used to compare nurse practitioner led care with doctor led care in a bronchiectasis outpatient clinic. Eighty patients were recruited and randomised to receive 1 year of nurse led care and 1 year of doctor led care in random order. Patients were followed up for 2 years to ensure patient safety and acceptability and to assess differences in lung function. Outcome measures were forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV(1)), 12 minute walk test, health related quality of life, and resource use.

RESULTS

The mean difference in FEV(1) was 0.2% predicted (95% confidence interval -1.6 to 2.0%, p=0.83). There were no significant differences in the other clinical or health related quality of life measures. Nurse led care resulted in significantly increased resource use compared with doctor led care (mean difference pound 1497, 95% confidence interval pound 688 to pound 2674, p<0.001), a large part of which resulted from the number and duration of hospital admissions. The mean difference in resource use was greater in the first year ( pound 2625) than in the second year ( pound 411).

CONCLUSIONS

Nurse practitioner led care for stable patients within a chronic chest clinic is safe and is as effective as doctor led care, but may use more resources.

A piecewise-homogeneous Markov chain process of lung transplantation

BACKGROUND

Markov and semi-Markov models are increasingly used in clinical and public health epidemiology to represent disease processes. We present a Markov model of events following lung transplantation as a case study in clinical epidemiology.

METHODS

A five-state discrete-time Markov model with two-way transitions between acute event states is applied to the analysis of 356 lung transplant patients. A two-state continuous time Markov model for chronic disease onset is fitted. Values of transition parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood using numerical methods.

RESULTS

Accurate estimates of acute and chonic event rates, and survival probabilities are calculated from transition probabilities. Costs attributed to different acute and chronic states are calculated.

CONCLUSIONS

Transition models provide a useful and flexible representation of acute and chronic events and can be used to explore the economic impact of changes in therapy.

Heart-lung transplantation for Eisenmenger syndrome: early and long-term results

BACKGROUND

Heart-lung transplantation (HLT) for Eisenmenger syndrome (ES) provides superior early and intermediate survival when compared with other forms of transplantation. The early risk factors and long-term outcome of HLT for ES are less well defined.

METHODS

We analyzed 263 patients who had undergone HLT at our institution during more than 15 years. Fifty-one consecutive patients with ES who underwent HLT, 33 (65%) of which had simple anatomy, were compared with 212 cases having HLT for other indications (non-ES).

RESULTS

Female sex and previous thoracotomy were more prevalent in the ES group. Patients with ES had greater postoperative blood loss and returned more frequently to the operating room for control of bleeding. There were 8 (16%) early deaths in the ES group compared with 27 (13%) in non-ES (p = 0.65). One-, 5-, and 10-year survival rates for ES were 72.6%, 51.3%, and 27.6%, respectively, compared with non-ES of 74.1%, 48.1%, and 26.0%, respectively, and there was no difference in survival overall (p = 0.54). Among ES patients, previous thoracotomy was a risk factor for hospital death. A subgroup analysis based on simple versus complex type of ES did not show statistically significant differences in terms of postoperative course or early or late survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Heart-lung transplantation is a successful procedure for ES. Despite a greater frequency of risk factors and a more difficult operative course, early and late outcome with HLT is comparable to non-ES recipients.

A UK trial-based cost--utility analysis of transmyocardial laser revascularization compared to continued medical therapy for treatment of refractory angina pectoris

OBJECTIVE

Transmyocardial laser revascularization (TMLR) is used to treat patients with refractory angina considered unsuitable for conventional forms of revascularization. Using patient specific data from a single centre UK randomised-controlled trial, we aimed to determine whether, from a UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective, TMLR plus standard medical management is cost-effective when compared with standard medical management alone.

METHODS

One hundred and eighty-eight patients assessed as having refractory angina, and not suitable for conventional forms of revascularization were randomized to receive TMLR and medical management (94) or medical management alone (94). Costs to the UK NHS of TMLR (where appropriate), and all secondary sector health care contacts and cardiac-related medication in the 12 months following randomization, were collected. Patient utility as measured using the EuroQol EQ-5D questionnaire was combined with 12-month survival data to generate quality adjusted life years (QALYs).

RESULTS

The mean cost per patient over the year from hospitalization for TMLR was 11,470 pounds sterling and for medical management alone was 2586 pounds sterling, giving a cost difference of 8901 pounds sterling (95% confidence interval (CI) 7502 pounds sterling--10,008 pounds sterling: P < 0.0001). The mean QALY difference, in favour of TMLR was 0.039 (95% CI -0.033 to 0.113: P = 0.268). This gives an incremental cost per QALY of over 228,000 pounds sterling. Analysis of stochastic uncertainty and of sensitivity to gross changes in key parameters consistently produces very high costs per QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

The policy implications are clear: for such patients TMLR is an inefficient use of UK health service resources. This conclusion would not be changed by considerable improvements in effectiveness or reductions in cost.

A model for analyzing the cost of the main clinical events after lung transplantation

BACKGROUND

The aim of this project was to model clinically important events experienced by lung transplant patients (from the day after transplant to 5 years or death) and costs associated with these events, and to assess the economic impact of different immunosuppression therapies.

METHODS

The population comprised 356 lung transplant patients (223 heart-lung, 102 single lung and 31 double lung) transplanted between April 1984 and December 1997. All patients received a cyclosporine-based triple-immunosuppression protocol. We designed a Markov model that included 3 time periods (0 to 6, 7 to 12, and 13 to 60 months), 5 clinical states (well, acute rejection, cytomegalovirus infection, non-cytomegalovirus infection and bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome), and death. For the well state, cost elements were immunosuppression, prophylaxis, and routine clinic visits. For all other states, cost elements were diagnosis, treatment, and bed days/visits. We excluded costs of the procedure.

RESULTS

The monthly costs associated with the well state decreased over time, from pound sterlings 1,778 ($2,658) in the first 6 months to pound sterlings 503 ($752) in months 7 to 12 and pound sterlings 350 ($523) after the first 12 months. The cost per event of the acute states remained reasonably constant over the 3 periods: pound sterlings 1,850 ($2,766) for rejection, pound sterlings 3,380 ($5,053) for cytomegalovirus, and pound sterlings 2,790 ($4,171) for other infections. The average cost per patient, discounted at 6%, over 5 years was pound sterlings 35,429 ($52,966) (95% range, pound1,435 [$2,145] to pound67,079 [$100,283]). This estimate is most sensitive to changes in immunosuppression. Substituting tacrolimus for cyclosporine increased 5-year costs by 5%; substituting mycophenolate mofetil for azathioprine increased 5-year costs by 26%.

CONCLUSIONS

This model is valuable in estimating the effect of new immunosuppression agents on the costs of follow-up care.

Randomized trial of blood eosinophil count monitoring as a guide to corticosteroid dosage adjustment after heart transplantation

BACKGROUND

Increases in blood eosinophil counts (EOS) beyond 0.06 x 10(9)/liter precede treated heart allograft rejection. An oral prednisolone dose of 0.35 mg/kg/day usually suppresses EOS below this threshold.

METHODS

We designed a randomized trial to compare our empirical protocol for steroid dose adjustment with a novel protocol guided by EOS monitoring during the first 3 months after heart transplantation. Eighty patients were randomized to either have their EOS reported and used for steroid dose adjustment (RG; n=40), or not reported (NG; n=40). RG patients had their steroid dosage increased if EOS exceeded 0.06 x 10(9)/liter.

RESULTS

RG patients had an 83% lower risk of treated rejection (P=0.035) and lower median intravenous dose of methyl-prednisolone (P=0.017) than NG during the first 6 postoperative weeks. The proportion of diagnostic increases in EOS that were followed within 2 weeks by treated rejection was 42% greater in NG than RG (P=0.0001), compatible with a direct impact of EOS-guided prednisolone dose adjustment on the risk of subsequent rejection. Overall, RG had less than half the risk of rejection of any grade (P<0.001) and significantly more rejection-free biopsies than NG (P=0.001). The mean oral prednisolone dosage was significantly greater in RG than NG during the first (P=0.014) and second (P=0.001) 6 weeks of follow-up. This did not increase the incidence of serious steroid-related side effects.

CONCLUSIONS

EOS monitoring is a simple, cheap, and effective means of optimizing steroid immunosuppression. Restriction of the EOS-guided steroid dosing protocol to periods of prolonged hospitalisation during the first 3 postoperative months should limit the requirement for higher prednisolone dosage without affecting immunosuppressive efficacy.

Prospective study of health related quality of life before and after coronary artery bypass grafting: outcome at five years

OBJECTIVE

To determine the long term health related quality of life of coronary artery bypass graft patients, to look at changes between one and five years after surgery, and to examine the ability of preoperative variables to predict longer term outcome.

DESIGN

Nottingham health profile (NHP) was used to assess patients at five years compared to results obtained at one year.

PATIENTS

100 male patients aged < 60 years at time of surgery; 77 had three vessel disease and 84 received three or more saphenous vein grafts.

RESULTS

In comparing the five year results with those at one year, lower mean scores, indicating slight improvements, were seen in the NHP dimensions of pain, sleep, social isolation, and emotional reactions, whereas signs of deterioration were noted in the physical mobility and energy scores. Chest pain was experienced by 34 of 84 patients at five years compared with 17 of 89 patients at one year. The proportion of patients who were unrestricted in their activities ranged from 61-70% at five years compared with 82-88% at one year. Absence of dyspnoea before surgery, indicating relatively good left ventricular function, was a predictor of good outcome at both one and five years.

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence of deterioration in physical function is compatible with expected decline in graft patency; specific rather than generic measures were most sensitive to this change.

Transmyocardial laser revascularisation in patients with refractory angina: a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Transmyocardial laser revascularisation (TMLR) is used to treat patients with refractory angina due to severe coronary artery disease, not suitable for conventional revascularisation. We aimed in a randomised controlled trial to assess the effectiveness of TMLR compared with medical management.

METHODS

188 patients with refractory angina were randomly assigned TMLR plus normal medication or medical management alone. At 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months after surgery (TMLR) or initial assessment (medical management) we assessed exercise capacity with the treadmill test and the 12 min walk.

FINDINGS

Mean treadmill exercise time, adjusted for baseline values, was 40 s (95% CI -15 to 94) longer in the TMLR group than in the medical-management group at 12 months (p=0.152). Mean 12 min walk distance was 33 m (-7 to 74) further in TMLR patients than medical-management patients (p=0.108) at 12 months. The differences were not significant or clinically important. Perioperative mortality was 5%. Survival at 12 months was 89% (83-96) in the TMLR group and 96% (92-100) in the medical-management group (p=0.14). Canadian Cardiovascular Society score for angina had decreased by at least two classes in 25% of TMLR and 4% of medical-management patients at 12 months (p<0.001).

INTERPRETATION

Our findings show that the adoption of TMLR cannot be advocated. Further research may be appropriate to assess any potential benefit for sicker patients.

The transmyocardial laser revascularization international registry report

AIMS

This report aimed to provide an analysis of the data submitted from Europe and Asia on transmyocardial laser revascularization.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Prospective data was recorded on 967 patients with intractable angina not amenable to conventional revascularization in 21 European and Asian centres performing transmyocardial laser revascularization using the PLC Medical Systems CO2 laser. Patient characteristics, operative details and early complications following transmyocardial laser revascularization were recorded. The in-hospital death rate was 9.7% (95% confidence interval 7.8% to 11.6%). Other early complications were consistent with similar cardiothoracic surgical procedures. There was a decrease of two or more Canadian Cardiovascular Score angina classes in 47.3%, 45.4% and 34.0% of survivors at 3, 6 and 12 months follow-up, respectively (P=0.001 for each). Treadmill exercise time increased by 42 s at 3 months (P=0.008), 1 min 43 s at 6 months (P<0.001) and 1 min 50 s at 12 months (P<0.001) against pre-operative times of 6 min.

CONCLUSION

Uncontrolled registry data suggest that transmyocardial laser revascularization may lead to a decrease in angina and improved exercise tolerance. It does, however, have a risk of peri-operative morbidity and mortality. Definitive results from randomized controlled trials are awaited.

Bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome: incidence, natural history, prognosis, and risk factors

BACKGROUND

In lung transplantation, obliterative bronchiolitis is the major factor limiting long-term survival. Bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS), defined as staged decline in pulmonary function has proved a reproducible and sensitive marker of obliterative bronchiolitis.

METHODS

The incidence of, and risk factors for, BOS were investigated in 230 lung transplant recipients who underwent transplantation from April 1984 to December 1995 and who survived at least 3 months after operation. Progression and prognosis was investigated in the 109 cases with development of BOS.

RESULTS

Actuarial BOS-free probability at 5 years was 36%. Post-BOS onset survival was 51% at 3 years. BOS onset conferred increased risk of death (hazard ratio [HR], 5.96; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.61, 9.83). Donor and recipient characteristics such as sex, age, underlying disease, type of transplant, and graft ischemic time did not affect BOS onset, progression, or prognosis. Cytomegalovirus serologic status and early acute rejection were risk factors for BOS onset in multivariate modeling. In univariate analysis, other risk factors were lung infection, cytomegalovirus episodes, organizing pneumonia, and human leukocyte antigen mismatch. Later transplantation era (1991 to 1995) was associated with decreased risk of BOS (HR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.44, 0.92). Acute rejection affected post-BOS progression (HR, 1.28/episode; 95% CI, 1.12, 1.45) and survival (HR, 1.20/episode; 95% CI, 1.05, 1.37). Post-BOS lung infection was an independent prognostic factor (HR, 1.12/episode; 95% CI, 1.01, 1.24). BOS onset in the later half of the series (1992 to 1997) was associated with decreased risk of progression (HR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.33, 0.82).

CONCLUSIONS

This study confirms that BOS is a major problem in lung transplantation, with a high incidence, rapid progression, and poor survival. It affects all modes of lung transplantation, regardless of sex, age, or underlying diagnosis. Acute rejection is a major prognostic factor. Lung infections after BOS onset worsen survival rates.

Late complications following permanent pacemaker implantation or elective unit replacement

OBJECTIVE

To determine the rate of late complications following first implantation or elective unit replacement of a permanent pacemaker system.

DESIGN

Analysis of pacemaker data and complications prospectively acquired on a computerised database. Complications were studied over an 11 year period from January 1984 to December 1994.

SETTING

Tertiary referral cardiothoracic centre.

PATIENTS

Records of 2621 patients were analysed retrospectively.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Complications requiring repeat procedures occurring more than six weeks after pacemaker implantation or elective unit replacement.

RESULTS

The overall rate of late complications was significantly lower after first implantation of a permanent pacemaker (34 cases, complication rate 1.4%, 95% confidence interval 0.9% to 1.9%) than after elective unit replacement (16 cases, complication rate 6.5% (3.3% to 9.7%). There were 20 cases of erosion, 18 infections, five electrode problems, and seven miscellaneous problems. Complications were more common with inexperienced operators (18.9% (6.0% to 31.8%)) than with experienced operators (0.9% (0.3% to 1.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of late complications following pacemaker implantation is low and compares favourably with early complication rates. The majority are caused by erosion and infection. Patients who have undergone elective unit replacement are at particular risk.

Cost implications of mitral valve replacement versus repair in mitral regurgitation

BACKGROUND

Mitral valve repair and replacement (MVR) with preservation of the tendinous chordae [MVR(p)], may have better results than MVR with valve excision [MVR(e)]. It is not known whether the type of surgery affects in-hospital stay and cost.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We reviewed all patients who had mitral valve surgery for regurgitation over 5 years from January 1991. Patients were considered in three groups; MVR(e), MVR(p), and Repair. Cost was calculated using operating room, intensive care unit, and ward expenses, not hospital charges. There were a total of 253 patients; 84 MVR(e), 42 MVR(p), and 127 Repair. Mean ages and preoperative New York Heart Association (NYHA) classes were similar in the three groups. There were more male patients in the Repair (62%) and MVR(p) (67%) groups than in the MVR(e) (44%) group (P<.05), and more patients with degenerative etiology in the Repair group (P<.01). A majority of MVR(e) were in atrial fibrillation (63%), while 59% of Repair were in sinus rhythm (P<.01). Of 9 patients who died in the hospital; four had MVR(e), 3 had MVR(p), and 2 had Repair. In univariate analyses, in-hospital stay increased with patient age >70 years (P<.01), preoperative atrial fibrillation (P<.05), and NYHA class III or IV (P<.01). The median and interquartile ranges for postoperative stay was 10 (8 to 13) days for MVR(e), 8 (7 to 11) days for MVR(p), and 8 (7 to 10) days for Repair (P<.01 versus MVR(e); multivariate analysis adjusting for age, rhythm, and NYHA class). Cost per patient was US $14469 for MVR(e), $13151 for MVR(p), and $11606 for Repair.

CONCLUSIONS

Repair and MVR(p) may predict shorter in-hospital stay and reduced cost, although there are important differences in the group of patients who have MVR(e).

Human leukocyte antigen compatibility in heart transplantation: evidence for a differential role of HLA matching on short- and medium-term patient survival

BACKGROUND

Studies of the influence of human leukocyte antigen (HLA) matching on cardiac transplant outcome have proved inconclusive, mainly due to the lack of well-matched grafts. However, a growing number of studies report improved clinical course and patient survival in cases with increased HLA compatibility. Opelz et al. believe these benefits justify the introduction of prospective HLA-matching strategies.

METHODS

We performed univariate and multivariate analyses to examine the short- and medium-term influence of HLA matching on 556 consecutive primary heart transplants performed at a single center between 1983 and 1994. Overall graft survival at 1, 3, and 5 years was 80%, 74%, and 67% respectively. Sixteen (2.9%) grafts failed within 5 days and were not considered in the analysis of the HLA matching and graft survival data.

RESULTS

Complete HLA-A, -B, and -DR typing data were available on 477 transplant pairs. The results demonstrate a 12% 1-year survival advantage for 31 patients with zero to two HLA antigen mismatches compared with three to six mismatches. The influence of each individual locus was 6.1%, 8.4%, and 5.4% for zero HLA-A, -B, and -DR mismatches, respectively, compared with two mismatches. However, when outcome from 1 to 5 years was considered, analysis of the role of each locus revealed marked differences. HLAA-matched grafts (n=45) had a 24% lower survival rate compared with two-antigen-mismatched grafts (n=148; 88% [SE 3.1] vs. 64% [SE 8.2], respectively; P=0.009). Furthermore, 34% of HLA-A-matched grafts failed between 1 and 5 years, compared with only 5% of HLA-B-matched grafts (P=0.013).

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest that although HLA matching is effective at reducing acute graft loss, in the longer term, HLA-A matching may impair survival. HLA-A may serve as a restriction element for indirect presentation of allopeptides or tissue-specific minor histocompatibility antigens, facilitating chronic graft loss. Therefore, we advocate a differential role for HLA matching over two epochs. A blanket approach to prospective matching for heart transplants may be premature for optimal long-term survival.

Bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome in heart-lung transplantation: surveillance biopsies

Transbronchial biopsies (TBBs) are useful to diagnose acute rejection and infection in patients with lung transplants. The value of routine surveillance biopsies (S-TBBs) is not known, and such biopsies with a clinical indication are not without risk and are expensive. One hundred twenty-six 6-mo survivors of heart-lung transplantation (HLT) were studied to determine the effect of stopping S-TBBs on the development of bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS) and subsequent survival. Fifty-one received transplants while S-TBB was part of routine care (group A), and 75 received transplants after this practice was stopped (group B). There was no difference in patient characteristics. Group A had shorter graft ischemia (p < 0.01) and longer postoperative ventilation (p < 0.01). Maintenance immunosuppression was similar, but group A had more steroid pulses in the second 6 mo after HLT (p < 0.01). The number of patients free from any functional deterioration at 49 to 60 mo after HLT declined to 39% in group A and 64% in group B. The risk of developing BOS grade 1 in group A relative to group B was 1.63 (95% confidence intervals: 0.96-2.79, p = 0.07). Patient survival was similar in the two groups. A total of 86 TBBs were taken in the absence of any signs or symptoms and had low diagnostic yield. In summary, there was no increased incidence of BOS after stopping S-TBBs.

Measurement of health-related quality of life before and after heart-lung transplantation

BACKGROUND

The measurement of the quality of the outcome of treatment as viewed by patients is becoming increasingly recognized as an important aspect of decision making in all health services. This major study, which set out to measure the health-related quality of life outcomes of heart and lung transplantation, developed from the experience gained in the United Kingdom and United States studies of the cost and benefits of heart transplantation in the 1980s.

METHODS

The design was prospective with a cohort of patients completing a variety of generic and specific health-related quality of life questionnaires at intervals before and after heart and lung transplantation. The sample size was not prescribed; one of the aims of the project was to test the feasibility of introducing routine monitoring of health-related quality of life outcomes as an integral part of a developing transplant service.

RESULTS

Before the operation, there was evidence of deterioration over time in all dimensions of the Nottingham Health Profile. In comparing Profile scores at less than 3 months before with those at 3 to 6 months after transplantation, statistically significant improvements were evident (p < 0.001). Mean scores at intervals up to 2 years after transplantation showed little change over time and compared well with those from a general population sample. Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale scores were reduced significantly (p < 0.01) by 1 year after heart and lung transplantation. In the pretransplantation period, at least 90% of 101 patients had some level of restriction in home and leisure activities, reducing to between 2% and 24% at 1 year after transplantation. Similarly, 79 patients (78%) had chest pain, and 101 (100%) were breathless before transplantation, reducing to 54% and 39%, respectively, at 1 year after surgery; by which time, for 8 of 10 patients, the problem was occasional.

CONCLUSIONS

Highly significant improvements were observed in the physical, social, and emotional dimensions of health-related quality of life of patients after heart-lung transplantation. The advantages and feasibility of combining generic and condition-specific questionnaires are shown together with the need to develop new measures with greater sensitivity to the smaller peaks and troughs of recovery.

A model for analyzing the cost of main clinical events after cardiac transplantation

Using information from the Papworth Hospital heart transplant service, a model was developed to link the main clinical events after cardiac transplantation to survival and costs. On the basis of the clinical and survival experience of 387 patients treated with triple-drug immunosuppression between 1986 and 1993, together with protocols for patient management, resource use, and costs, a 5-year Markov model with three time periods was used to simulate survival and estimate costs. The model accurately mirrors observed actuarial survival; 1- and 5-year survival rates were 81% and 65%, respectively. An average cost per patient of 26,000 pounds over 5 years (discounted at a rate of 6%) was estimated. The expense of routine care for patients accounts for the majority of the costs; a patient who remains well throughout the 5-year period would incur costs of 23,000 pounds. The sensitivity of the estimates to alternative assumptions is presented, and the way in which the model can be used to compare alternative future scenarios is explored.