Climate and habitat type interact to influence contemporary dispersal potential in Prairie Smoke (Geum triflorum)

Understanding dispersal potential, or the probability a species will move a given distance, under different environmental conditions is essential to predicting species' ability to move across the landscape and track shifting ecological niches. Two important drivers of dispersal ability are climatic differences and variations in local habitat type. Despite the likelihood these global drivers act simultaneously on plant populations, and thus dispersal potential is likely to change as a result, their combined effects on dispersal are rarely examined. To understand the effect of climate and varying habitat types on dispersal potential, we studied Geum triflorum-a perennial grassland species that spans a wide range of environments, including both prairie and alvar habitats. We explored how the climate of the growing season and habitat type (prairie vs. alvar) interact to alter dispersal potential. We found a consistent interactive effect of climate and habitat type on dispersal potential. Across prairie populations, an increased number of growing degree days favored traits that increase dispersal potential or the probability of dispersing farther distances. However, for alvar populations, dispersal potential tended to decrease as the number of growing degree days increased. Our findings suggest that under continued warming, populations in prairie habitats will benefit from increased gene flow, while alvar populations will become increasingly segregated, with reduced potential to track shifting fitness optima.

Take me for a ride: Herbivores can facilitate plant reinvasions

Herbivores shape plant invasions through impacts on demography and dispersal, yet only demographic mechanisms are well understood. Although herbivores negatively impact demography by definition, they can affect dispersal either negatively (e.g., seed consumption), or positively (e.g., caching). Exploring the nuances of how herbivores influence spatial spread will improve the forecasting of plant movement on the landscape. Here, we aim to understand how herbivores impact how fast plant populations spread through varying impacts on plant demography and dispersal. We strive to determine whether, and under what conditions, we see net positive effects of herbivores, in order to find scenarios where herbivores can help to promote spread. We draw on classic invasion theory to develop a stage-structured integrodifference equation model that incorporates herbivore impacts on plant demography and dispersal. We simulate seven herbivore "syndromes" (combinations of demographic and/or dispersal effects) drawn from the literature to understand how increasing herbivore pressure alters plant spreading speed. We find that herbivores with solely negative effects on plant demography or dispersal always slow plant spreading speed, and that the speed slows monotonically as herbivore pressure increases. However, we also find that plant spreading speed can be hump shaped with respect to herbivore pressure: plants spread faster in the presence of herbivores (for low herbivore pressure) and then slower (for high herbivore pressure). This result is robust, occurring across all syndromes in which herbivores have a positive effect on plant dispersal, and is a sign that the positive effects of herbivores on dispersal can outweigh their negative effects on demography. For all syndromes we find that sufficiently high herbivore pressure results in population collapse. Thus, our findings show that herbivores can speed up or slow down plant spread. These insights allow for a greater understanding of how to slow invasions, facilitate native species recolonization, and shape range shifts with global change.

Herbivory and nutrients shape grassland soil seed banks

Anthropogenic nutrient enrichment and shifts in herbivory can lead to dramatic changes in the composition and diversity of aboveground plant communities. In turn, this can alter seed banks in the soil, which are cryptic reservoirs of plant diversity. Here, we use data from seven Nutrient Network grassland sites on four continents, encompassing a range of climatic and environmental conditions, to test the joint effects of fertilization and aboveground mammalian herbivory on seed banks and on the similarity between aboveground plant communities and seed banks. We find that fertilization decreases plant species richness and diversity in seed banks, and homogenizes composition between aboveground and seed bank communities. Fertilization increases seed bank abundance especially in the presence of herbivores, while this effect is smaller in the absence of herbivores. Our findings highlight that nutrient enrichment can weaken a diversity maintaining mechanism in grasslands, and that herbivory needs to be considered when assessing nutrient enrichment effects on seed bank abundance.

Clarifying the effect of biodiversity on productivity in natural ecosystems with longitudinal data and methods for causal inference

Causal effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functions can be estimated using experimental or observational designs - designs that pose a tradeoff between drawing credible causal inferences from correlations and drawing generalizable inferences. Here, we develop a design that reduces this tradeoff and revisits the question of how plant species diversity affects productivity. Our design leverages longitudinal data from 43 grasslands in 11 countries and approaches borrowed from fields outside of ecology to draw causal inferences from observational data. Contrary to many prior studies, we estimate that increases in plot-level species richness caused productivity to decline: a 10% increase in richness decreased productivity by 2.4%, 95% CI [-4.1, -0.74]. This contradiction stems from two sources. First, prior observational studies incompletely control for confounding factors. Second, most experiments plant fewer rare and non-native species than exist in nature. Although increases in native, dominant species increased productivity, increases in rare and non-native species decreased productivity, making the average effect negative in our study. By reducing the tradeoff between experimental and observational designs, our study demonstrates how observational studies can complement prior ecological experiments and inform future ones.

Disturbance alters transience but nutrients determine equilibria during grassland succession with multiple global change drivers

Disturbance and environmental change may cause communities to converge on a steady state, diverge towards multiple alternative states or remain in long-term transience. Yet, empirical investigations of successional trajectories are rare, especially in systems experiencing multiple concurrent anthropogenic drivers of change. We examined succession in old field grassland communities subjected to disturbance and nitrogen fertilization using data from a long-term (22-year) experiment. Regardless of initial disturbance, after a decade communities converged on steady states largely determined by resource availability, where species turnover declined as communities approached dynamic equilibria. Species favoured by the disturbance were those that eventually came to dominate the highly fertilized plots. Furthermore, disturbance made successional pathways more direct revealing an important interaction effect between nutrients and disturbance as drivers of community change. Our results underscore the dynamical nature of grassland and old field succession, demonstrating how community properties such as β $$ \beta $$ diversity change through transient and equilibrium states.

The cost of self-promotion: ecological and demographic implications of the mentor effect in natural plant populations

Under the mentor effect, compatible heterospecific pollen transfer induces self-pollen germination in otherwise self-incompatible plants. The mentor effect could be considered a novel mode of reproductive interference if it negatively impacts fitness. Yet to date, this phenomenon has predominately been investigated under experimental conditions rather than in situ. We address this gap in natural populations of the self-incompatible native dandelion, Taraxacum ceratophorum, where selfing only occurs in association with hybridization from exotic Taraxacum officinale. We tested whether self-fertilization rate increases in the hybrid zone, as predicted due to the mentor effect. Using results from these investigations, we created an exponential growth model to estimate the potential demographic impacts of the mentor effect on T. ceratophorum population growth. Our results demonstrate that the strength of the mentor effect in Taraxacum depends on the prevalence of pollinator-mediated outcross pollen deposition rather than self-pollination. Demographic models suggest that reduced outcrossing in T. ceratophorum under exotic invasion could negatively impact population growth through inbreeding depression. We demonstrate the mentor effect is rare in natural populations of T. ceratophorum due to masking by early life cycle inbreeding depression, prevalent outcrossing, and ovule usurpation by heterospecific pollen.

The effects of dispersal, herbivory, and competition on plant community assembly

Dispersal is a key process in community assembly but is often considered separately from downstream assembly processes (e.g., competition, herbivory). However, dispersal varies by species and can interact with other assembly processes through establishment as species enter communities. Here, we sought to distinguish the role of dispersal in community assembly and its interaction with two biotic assembly processes: competition and herbivory. We used a tallgrass prairie restoration experiment that manipulated the competitive and herbivore environments while allowing for natural dispersal and establishment from a diverse regional species pool into areas of low diversity. Dispersal, competition, and herbivory all influenced local communities. By tracking the spread of four target species across the plots, we found interspecific and intraspecific differences in establishment patterns, with herbivores influencing the number of individuals present and the distances species moved. At the community level, only dispersal and competition significantly influenced alpha diversity, but all three processes additively influenced community composition. There was also evidence of herbivore-competition and herbivore-colonization trade-offs in our experiment. Some species that could tolerate herbivory were less likely to establish in competitive environments, while others that could tolerate herbivory were more likely to disperse greater distances. More work is needed to understand the contexts under which dispersal variation affects community assembly and its synergy with other processes.

EcoEvoApps: Interactive apps for theoretical models in ecology and evolutionary biology

The integration of theory and data drives progress in science, but a persistent barrier to such integration in ecology and evolutionary biology is that theory is often developed and expressed in the form of mathematical models that can feel daunting and inaccessible for students and empiricists with variable quantitative training and attitudes towards math. A promising way to make mathematical models more approachable is to embed them into interactive tools with which one can visually evaluate model structures and directly explore model outcomes through simulation. To promote such interactive learning of quantitative models, we developed EcoEvoApps, a collection of free, open-source, and multilingual R/Shiny apps that include model overviews, interactive model simulations, and code to implement these models directly in R. The package currently focuses on canonical models of population dynamics, species interactions, and landscape ecology. These apps help illustrate fundamental results from theoretical ecology and can serve as valuable teaching tools in classroom settings. We present data from student surveys which show that students rate these apps as useful learning tools, and that using interactive apps leads to substantial gains in students' interest and confidence in working with mathematical models. This points to the potential for interactive activities to make theoretical models more accessible to a wider audience, and thus facilitate the feedback between theory and data across ecology and evolutionary biology.

Consequences of ignoring dispersal variation in network models for landscape connectivity

Habitat loss and fragmentation can negatively influence population persistence and biodiversity, but the effects can be mitigated if species successfully disperse between isolated habitat patches. Network models are the primary tool for quantifying landscape connectivity, yet in practice, an overly simplistic view of species dispersal is applied. These models often ignore individual variation in dispersal ability under the assumption that all individuals move the same fixed distance with equal probability. We developed a modeling approach to address this problem. We incorporated dispersal kernels into network models to determine how individual variation in dispersal alters understanding of landscape-level connectivity and implemented our approach on a fragmented grassland landscape in Minnesota. Ignoring dispersal variation consistently overestimated a population's robustness to local extinctions and underestimated its robustness to local habitat loss. Furthermore, a simplified view of dispersal underestimated the amount of habitat substructure for small populations but overestimated habitat substructure for large populations. Our results demonstrate that considering biologically realistic dispersal alters understanding of landscape connectivity in ecological theory and conservation practice.

Author Correction: Leaf nutrients, not specific leaf area, are consistent indicators of elevated nutrient inputs

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Trait plasticity alters the range of possible coexistence conditions in a competition-colonisation trade-off

Most of the classical theory on species coexistence has been based on species-level competitive trade-offs. However, it is becoming apparent that plant species display high levels of trait plasticity. The implications of this plasticity are almost completely unknown for most coexistence theory. Here, we model a competition-colonisation trade-off and incorporate trait plasticity to evaluate its effects on coexistence. Our simulations show that the classic competition-colonisation trade-off is highly sensitive to environmental circumstances, and coexistence only occurs in narrow ranges of conditions. The inclusion of plasticity, which allows shifts in competitive hierarchies across the landscape, leads to coexistence across a much broader range of competitive and environmental conditions including disturbance levels, the magnitude of competitive differences between species, and landscape spatial patterning. Plasticity also increases the number of species that persist in simulations of multispecies assemblages. Plasticity may generally increase the robustness of coexistence mechanisms and be an important component of scaling coexistence theory to higher diversity communities.

Integrating the underlying structure of stochasticity into community ecology

Stochasticity is a core component of ecology, as it underlies key processes that structure and create variability in nature. Despite its fundamental importance in ecological systems, the concept is often treated as synonymous with unpredictability in community ecology, and studies tend to focus on single forms of stochasticity rather than taking a more holistic view. This has led to multiple narratives for how stochasticity mediates community dynamics. Here, we present a framework that describes how different forms of stochasticity (notably demographic and environmental stochasticity) combine to provide underlying and predictable structure in diverse communities. This framework builds on the deep ecological understanding of stochastic processes acting at individual and population levels and in modules of a few interacting species. We support our framework with a mathematical model that we use to synthesize key literature, demonstrating that stochasticity is more than simple uncertainty. Rather, stochasticity has profound and predictable effects on community dynamics that are critical for understanding how diversity is maintained. We propose next steps that ecologists might use to explore the role of stochasticity for structuring communities in theoretical and empirical systems, and thereby enhance our understanding of community dynamics.

Consequences of intraspecific variation in seed dispersal for plant demography, communities, evolution and global change

As the single opportunity for plants to move, seed dispersal has an important impact on plant fitness, species distributions and patterns of biodiversity. However, models that predict dynamics such as risk of extinction, range shifts and biodiversity loss tend to rely on the mean value of parameters and rarely incorporate realistic dispersal mechanisms. By focusing on the mean population value, variation among individuals or variability caused by complex spatial and temporal dynamics is ignored. This calls for increased efforts to understand individual variation in dispersal and integrate it more explicitly into population and community models involving dispersal. However, the sources, magnitude and outcomes of intraspecific variation in dispersal are poorly characterized, limiting our understanding of the role of dispersal in mediating the dynamics of communities and their response to global change. In this manuscript, we synthesize recent research that examines the sources of individual variation in dispersal and emphasize its implications for plant fitness, populations and communities. We argue that this intraspecific variation in seed dispersal does not simply add noise to systems, but, in fact, alters dispersal processes and patterns with consequences for demography, communities, evolution and response to anthropogenic changes. We conclude with recommendations for moving this field of research forward.

Climate modifies response of non-native and native species richness to nutrient enrichment

Ecosystem eutrophication often increases domination by non-natives and causes displacement of native taxa. However, variation in environmental conditions may affect the outcome of interactions between native and non-native taxa in environments where nutrient supply is elevated. We examined the interactive effects of eutrophication, climate variability and climate average conditions on the success of native and non-native plant species using experimental nutrient manipulations replicated at 32 grassland sites on four continents. We hypothesized that effects of nutrient addition would be greatest where climate was stable and benign, owing to reduced niche partitioning. We found that the abundance of non-native species increased with nutrient addition independent of climate; however, nutrient addition increased non-native species richness and decreased native species richness, with these effects dampened in warmer or wetter sites. Eutrophication also altered the time scale in which grassland invasion responded to climate, decreasing the importance of long-term climate and increasing that of annual climate. Thus, climatic conditions mediate the responses of native and non-native flora to nutrient enrichment. Our results suggest that the negative effect of nutrient addition on native abundance is decoupled from its effect on richness, and reduces the time scale of the links between climate and compositional change.

Mammalian Herbivores Alter the Population Growth and Spatial Establishment of an Early-Establishing Grassland Species

Plant-herbivore interactions influence the establishment context of plant species, as herbivores alter the community context in which individual species establish, and the spatial relationship between individuals and their source population as plants invade. This relationship can be described using an establishment kernel, which takes into account movement through seed dispersal, and subsequent establishment of adults. Mammalian herbivores are hypothesized to influence plant population growth and establishment through a combination of consumption of seeds and seedlings, and movement of seeds. While the movement abilities of plants are well known, we have very few empirical mechanistic tests of how biotic factors like mammalian herbivores influence this spread potential. As herbivores of all sizes are abundant on the landscape, we asked the question, how do mammalian herbivores influence the population growth, spatial establishment, and the community establishment context of an early-recruiting native prairie legume, Chamaecrista fasciculata? We planted C. fasciculata in source populations within a four-acre tallgrass prairie restoration in plots with and without herbivores, and monitored its establishment with respect to distance from the source populations. We found that herbivores decreased population growth, and decreased the mean and range establishment distance. Additionally, C. fasciculata established more often without herbivores, and when surrounded by weedy, annual species. Our results provide insight into how the interactions between plants and herbivores can alter the spatial dynamics of developing plant communities, which is vital for colonization and range spread with fragmentation and climate change. Mammalian herbivores have the potential to both slow rates of establishment, but also determine the types of plant communities that surround invading species. Therefore, it is essential to consider the herbivore community when attempting to restore functioning plant communities.

Potential negative ecological effects of corridors

Despite many studies showing that landscape corridors increase dispersal and species richness for disparate taxa, concerns persist that corridors can have unintended negative effects. In particular, some of the same mechanisms that underlie positive effects of corridors on species of conservation interest may also increase the spread and impact of antagonistic species (e.g., predators and pathogens), foster negative effects of edges, increase invasion by exotic species, increase the spread of unwanted disturbances such as fire, or increase population synchrony and thus reduce persistence. We conducted a literature review and meta-analysis to evaluate the prevalence of each of these negative effects. We found no evidence that corridors increase unwanted disturbance or non-native species invasion; however, these have not been well-studied concerns (1 and 6 studies, respectively). Other effects of corridors were more often studied and yielded inconsistent results; mean effect sizes were indistinguishable from zero. The effect of edges on abundances of target species was as likely to be positive as negative. Corridors were as likely to have no effect on antagonists or population synchrony as they were to increase those negative effects. We found 3 deficiencies in the literature. First, despite studies on how corridors affect predators, there are few studies of related consequences for prey population size and persistence. Second, properly designed studies of negative corridor effects are needed in natural corridors at scales larger than those achievable in experimental systems. Third, studies are needed to test more targeted hypotheses about when corridor-mediated effects on invasive species or disturbance may be negative for species of management concern. Overall, we found no overarching support for concerns that construction and maintenance of habitat corridors may result in unintended negative consequences. Negative edge effects may be mitigated by widening corridors or softening edges between corridors and the matrix. Other negative effects are relatively small and manageable compared with the large positive effects of facilitating dispersal and increasing diversity of native species.

Can dispersal mode predict corridor effects on plant parasites?

Habitat corridors, a common management strategy for increasing connectivity in fragmented landscapes, have experimentally validated positive influences on species movement and diversity. However, long-standing concerns that corridors could negatively impact native species by spreading antagonists, such as disease, remain largely untested. Using a large-scale, replicated experiment, we evaluated whether corridors increase the incidence of plant parasites. We found that corridor impacts varied with parasite dispersal mode. Connectivity provided by corridors increased incidence of biotically dispersed parasites (galls on Solidago odora) but not of abiotically dispersed parasites (foliar fungi on S. odora and three Lespedeza spp.). Both biotically and abiotically dispersed parasites responded to edge effects, but the direction of responses varied across species. Although our results require additional tests for generality to other species and landscapes, they suggest that, when establishing conservation corridors, managers should focus on mitigating two potential negative effects: the indirect effects of narrow corridors in creating edges and direct effects of corridors in enhancing connectivity of biotically dispersed parasites.

Productivity is a poor predictor of plant species richness

For more than 30 years, the relationship between net primary productivity and species richness has generated intense debate in ecology about the processes regulating local diversity. The original view, which is still widely accepted, holds that the relationship is hump-shaped, with richness first rising and then declining with increasing productivity. Although recent meta-analyses questioned the generality of hump-shaped patterns, these syntheses have been criticized for failing to account for methodological differences among studies. We addressed such concerns by conducting standardized sampling in 48 herbaceous-dominated plant communities on five continents. We found no clear relationship between productivity and fine-scale (meters(-2)) richness within sites, within regions, or across the globe. Ecologists should focus on fresh, mechanistic approaches to understanding the multivariate links between productivity and richness.