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Halupka L, Arlt D, Tolvanen J, Millon A, Bize P, Adamík P, Albert P, Arendt WJ, Artemyev AV, Baglione V, Bańbura J, Bańbura M, Barba E, Barrett RT, Becker PH, Belskii E, Bolton M, Bowers EK, Bried J, Brouwer L, Bukacińska M, Bukaciński D, Bulluck L, Carstens KF, Catry I, Charter M, Chernomorets A, Covas R, Czuchra M, Dearborn DC, de Lope F, Di Giacomo AS, Dombrovski VC, Drummond H, Dunn MJ, Eeva T, Emmerson LM, Espmark Y, Fargallo JA, Gashkov SI, Golubova EY, Griesser M, Harris MP, Hoover JP, Jagiełło Z, Karell P, Kloskowski J, Koenig WD, Kolunen H, Korczak-Abshire M, Korpimäki E, Krams I, Krist M, Krüger SC, Kuranov BD, Lambin X, Lombardo MP, Lyakhov A, Marzal A, Møller AP, Neves VC, Nielsen JT, Numerov A, Orłowska B, Oro D, Öst M, Phillips RA, Pietiäinen H, Polo V, Porkert J, Potti J, Pöysä H, Printemps T, Prop J, Quillfeldt P, Ramos JA, Ravussin PA, Rosenfield RN, Roulin A, Rubenstein DR, Samusenko IE, Saunders DA, Schaub M, Senar JC, Sergio F, Solonen T, Solovyeva DV, Stępniewski J, Thompson PM, Tobolka M, Török J, van de Pol M, Vernooij L, Visser ME, Westneat DF, Wheelwright NT, Wiącek J, Wiebe KL, Wood AG, Wuczyński A, Wysocki D, Zárybnická M, Margalida A, Halupka K. The effect of climate change on avian offspring production: A global meta-analysis. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2023; 120:e2208389120. [PMID: 37126701 PMCID: PMC10175715 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2208389120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/03/2023] Open
Abstract
Climate change affects timing of reproduction in many bird species, but few studies have investigated its influence on annual reproductive output. Here, we assess changes in the annual production of young by female breeders in 201 populations of 104 bird species (N = 745,962 clutches) covering all continents between 1970 and 2019. Overall, average offspring production has declined in recent decades, but considerable differences were found among species and populations. A total of 56.7% of populations showed a declining trend in offspring production (significant in 17.4%), whereas 43.3% exhibited an increase (significant in 10.4%). The results show that climatic changes affect offspring production through compounded effects on ecological and life history traits of species. Migratory and larger-bodied species experienced reduced offspring production with increasing temperatures during the chick-rearing period, whereas smaller-bodied, sedentary species tended to produce more offspring. Likewise, multi-brooded species showed increased breeding success with increasing temperatures, whereas rising temperatures were unrelated to reproductive success in single-brooded species. Our study suggests that rapid declines in size of bird populations reported by many studies from different parts of the world are driven only to a small degree by changes in the production of young.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lucyna Halupka
- Ornithological Station, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Wrocław, Wrocław 50-335, Poland
| | - Debora Arlt
- Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala SE-750 07, Sweden
- SLU Swedish Species Information Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala SE-750 07, Sweden
| | - Jere Tolvanen
- Department of Ecology and Genetics, University of Oulu, Oulu 90014, Finland
| | - Alexandre Millon
- Aix Marseille University, University of Avignon, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Institut Méditerranéen Biodiversité & Ecologie (IMBE), Aix-en-Provence 13545, France
- Groupe d'Etudes et de Protection des Busards (GepB), Beurville 52110, France
| | - Pierre Bize
- Swiss Ornithological Institute, Sempach CH-6204, Switzerland
| | - Peter Adamík
- Department of Zoology, Faculty of Science, Palacky University, Olomouc 771 46, Czech Republic
- Museum of Natural History, Olomouc 771 73, Czech Republic
| | | | - Wayne J Arendt
- USDA Forest Service, International Institute of Tropical Forestry, Sabana Field Research Station, Luquillo 00773, PR
| | - Alexander V Artemyev
- Department of Zoology, Institute of Biology, Karelian Research Center, Russian Academy of Sciences, Petrozavodsk 185910, Russia
| | - Vittorio Baglione
- Departamento de Biodiversidad y Gestión Ambiental, Universidad de León, León 24071, Spain
| | - Jerzy Bańbura
- Department of Experimental Zoology and Evolutionary Biology, Faculty of Biology, University of Łódź, Łódź 90-237, Poland
| | - Mirosława Bańbura
- Department of Experimental Zoology and Evolutionary Biology, Faculty of Biology, University of Łódź, Łódź 90-237, Poland
| | - Emilio Barba
- "Cavanilles" Institute of Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology, University of Valencia, Valencia E46080, Spain
| | - Robert T Barrett
- Department of Natural Sciences, Tromsø University Museum, Tromsø NO-9037, Norway
| | - Peter H Becker
- Institute of Avian Research "Vogelwarte Helgoland", head office Wilhelmshaven, Wilhelmshaven 26386, Germany
| | - Eugen Belskii
- Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology, Ural Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg 620144, Russia
| | - Mark Bolton
- Centre for Conservation Science, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, Aberdeen AB10 1YP, UK
| | - E Keith Bowers
- Department of Biological Sciences, Edward J. Meeman Biological Station, and Center for Biodiversity Research, University of Memphis, Memphis TN 38152
| | - Joël Bried
- Institute of Marine Sciences - OKEANOS, University of the Azores, Horta 9901-862, Portugal
- Private address, 64200 Biarritz, France
| | - Lyanne Brouwer
- Department of Zoology & Ecology, College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
- Division of Ecology & Evolution Research, School of Biology, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
| | - Monika Bukacińska
- Department of Environmental Conservation, Institute of Biological Sciences, Cardinal Stefan Wyszyński University of Warsaw, Warsaw 01-938, Poland
| | - Dariusz Bukaciński
- Department of Environmental Conservation, Institute of Biological Sciences, Cardinal Stefan Wyszyński University of Warsaw, Warsaw 01-938, Poland
| | - Lesley Bulluck
- Department of Biology and Center for Environmental Studies, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA 23284
| | - Kate F Carstens
- FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa
| | - Inês Catry
- Research Centre in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources (CIBIO) / Research Network in Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology (InBIO), Laboratório Associado, Universidade do Porto, Vairăo 4485-601, Portugal
- Research Centre in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources (CIBIO) / Research Network in Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology (InBIO), Laboratório Associado, Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon 1349-017, Portugal
- BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land Planning, Research Centre in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources (CIBIO), Vairăo 4485-661, Portugal
| | - Motti Charter
- Shamir Research Institute and Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Haifa, Haifa 3498838, Israel
| | - Anna Chernomorets
- Laboratory of Ornithology, Scientific and Practical Center for Biological Resources of National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, Minsk 220072, Belarus
| | - Rita Covas
- FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa
- Research Centre in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources (CIBIO) / Research Network in Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology (InBIO), Laboratório Associado, Universidade do Porto, Vairăo 4485-601, Portugal
- BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land Planning, Research Centre in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources (CIBIO), Vairăo 4485-661, Portugal
| | - Monika Czuchra
- Department of Behavioural Ecology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Wrocław, Wrocław 50-335, Poland
| | - Donald C Dearborn
- Biology Department, Bates College, Lewiston, ME 04240
- Division of Organisms and Environment, School of Biosciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff CF10 3AX, UK
| | - Florentino de Lope
- Department of Anatomy, Cellular Biology and Zoology, University of Extremadura, Badajoz E-506071, Spain
| | - Adrián S Di Giacomo
- Laboratorio de Biología de la Conservación, Centro de Ecología Aplicada del Litoral, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Tecnológicas (CONICET), Corrientes 3400, Argentina
| | - Valery C Dombrovski
- Laboratory of Molecular Zoology, National Academy of Sciences, Minsk 220072, Belarus
| | - Hugh Drummond
- Departamento de Ecología Evolutiva, Instituto de Ecología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México 04510, Mexico
| | - Michael J Dunn
- British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK
| | - Tapio Eeva
- Department of Biology, University of Turku, Turku 20014, Finland
| | - Louise M Emmerson
- Australian Antarctic Division, Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment, 7050 Kingston TAS, Australia
| | - Yngve Espmark
- Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7491, Norway
| | - Juan A Fargallo
- Department of Evolutionary Ecology, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Madrid 28006, Spain
| | - Sergey I Gashkov
- Departament of Museum Technologies, Zoology Museum, Tomsk State University, Tomsk 634050, Russia
| | - Elena Yu Golubova
- Institute of Biological Problems of the North, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Magadan 685000, Russia
| | - Michael Griesser
- Department of Biology, University of Konstanz, Konstanz 78457, Germany
- Center for the Advanced Study of Collective Behaviour, University of Konstanz, Konstanz 78457, Germany
- Department of Collective Behavior, Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior, Konstanz 78457, Germany
| | | | - Jeffrey P Hoover
- Illinois Natural History Survey, Prairie Research Institute, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL 61820
| | - Zuzanna Jagiełło
- Institute of Zoology, Poznań University of Life Sciences, Poznań 60-625, Poland
| | - Patrik Karell
- Bioeconomy Research Team, Novia University of Applied Sciences, Raseborg FI-10600, Finland
- Evolutionary Ecology Unit, Department of Biology, Lund University, Lund SE-223 62, Sweden
| | - Janusz Kloskowski
- Institute of Zoology, Poznań University of Life Sciences, Poznań 60-625, Poland
| | - Walter D Koenig
- Hastings Reservation, University of California Berkeley, Carmel Valley, CA 93924
- Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14850
| | | | | | - Erkki Korpimäki
- Department of Biology, University of Turku, Turku 20014, Finland
| | - Indrikis Krams
- Department of Zoology and Animal Ecology, Faculty of Biology, University of Latvia, Riga 1004, Latvia
- Department of Biotechnology, Daugavpils University, Daugavpils 5401, Latvia
- Department of Zoology, Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences, University of Tartu, Tartu 51010, Estonia
| | - Miloš Krist
- Department of Zoology, Faculty of Science, Palacky University, Olomouc 771 46, Czech Republic
- Museum of Natural History, Olomouc 771 73, Czech Republic
| | - Sonja C Krüger
- Conservation Services Division, Ezemvelo KwaZulu-Natal Wildlife, Cascades 3202, South Africa
- School of Life Sciences, Centre for Functional Biodiversity University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg 3201, South Africa
| | - Boris D Kuranov
- Department of Vertebrate Zoology and Ecology, Tomsk State University, Tomsk 634050, Russia
| | - Xavier Lambin
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen AB24 2TZ, UK
| | - Michael P Lombardo
- Biology Department, Grand Valley State University, Allendale, MI 49401-9403
| | - Andrey Lyakhov
- Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology, Ural Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg 620144, Russia
| | - Alfonso Marzal
- Department of Anatomy, Cellular Biology and Zoology, University of Extremadura, Badajoz E-506071, Spain
| | - Anders P Møller
- Ecologie Systématique Evolution, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette 91190, France
| | - Verónica C Neves
- Institute of Marine Sciences - OKEANOS, University of the Azores, Horta 9901-862, Portugal
| | | | - Alexander Numerov
- Department of Zoology and Parasitology, Voronezh State University, Voronezh 394006, Russia
| | - Beata Orłowska
- Ornithological Station, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Wrocław, Wrocław 50-335, Poland
| | - Daniel Oro
- Theoretical and Computation Ecology Lab, Centre d'Estudis Acançats de Blanes (CEAB), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Blanes 17300, Spain
| | - Markus Öst
- Environmental and Marine Biology, Åbo Akademi University, Turku 20500, Finland
- Novia University of Applied Sciences, Raseborg FI-10600, Finland
| | - Richard A Phillips
- British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK
| | - Hannu Pietiäinen
- Department of Biosciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki FI-00014, Finland
| | - Vicente Polo
- Department of Biology and Geology, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Móstoles 28933, Spain
| | | | - Jaime Potti
- Estación Biológica de Dońana - CSIC, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Seville 41092, Spain
| | - Hannu Pöysä
- Department of Environmental and Biological Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, Joensuu FI-80101, Finland
| | - Thierry Printemps
- Groupe d'Etudes et de Protection des Busards (GepB), Beurville 52110, France
| | - Jouke Prop
- Arctic Centre, University of Groningen, Groningen 9718CW, the Netherlands
| | - Petra Quillfeldt
- Department of Animal Ecology and Systematics, Justus Liebig University, Giessen 35392, Germany
| | - Jaime A Ramos
- Department of Life Sciences, Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre (MARE), University of Coimbra, Coimbra 3000-456, Portugal
| | | | - Robert N Rosenfield
- Department of Biology, University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point, Stevens Point, WI 54481
| | - Alexandre Roulin
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Lausanne, Lausanne CH-1015, Switzerland
| | - Dustin R Rubenstein
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027
| | - Irina E Samusenko
- Laboratory of Ornithology, Scientific and Practical Center for Biological Resources of National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, Minsk 220072, Belarus
| | | | - Michael Schaub
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen AB24 2TZ, UK
- Division of Conservation Biology, Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Bern, Bern CH-3012, Switzerland
| | - Juan C Senar
- Departament de Vertebrats, Museu de Ciències Naturals de Barcelona, Barcelona 08003, Spain
| | - Fabrizio Sergio
- Estación Biológica de Dońana - CSIC, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Seville 41092, Spain
| | - Tapio Solonen
- Luontotutkimus Solonen Oy, Helsinki FI-00960, Finland
| | - Diana V Solovyeva
- Institute of Biological Problems of the North, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Magadan 685000, Russia
| | - Janusz Stępniewski
- Panurus Monitoringi Inwentaryzacje Opinie Przyrodnicze, Osieczna 64-113, Poland
| | - Paul M Thompson
- School of Biological Sciences, Lighthouse Field Station, University of Aberdeen, Cromarty IV11 8YL, UK
| | - Marcin Tobolka
- Institute of Zoology, Poznań University of Life Sciences, Poznań 60-625, Poland
- Konrad Lorenz Institute of Ethology, University of Veterinary Medicine, Vienna 1160, Austria
| | - János Török
- Department of Systematic Zoology and Ecology, Behavioural Ecology Group, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest H-1117, Hungary
- Integrative Ecology Research Group, Eötvös Loránd Research Network - Eötvös Loránd University - The Hungarian Natural History Museum, Budapest H-1117, Hungary
| | - Martijn van de Pol
- Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology, Wageningen 6708PB, the Netherlands
- Department of Physical Sciences, College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
| | - Louis Vernooij
- Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology, Wageningen 6708PB, the Netherlands
| | - Marcel E Visser
- Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology, Wageningen 6708PB, the Netherlands
| | - David F Westneat
- Department of Biology, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY 40506-0225
| | | | - Jarosław Wiącek
- Department of Zoology and Nature Protection, Institute of Biological Sciences, Maria Curie-Skłodowska University, Lublin 20-033, Poland
| | - Karen L Wiebe
- Department of Biology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon S7N 5E2, Canada
| | - Andrew G Wood
- British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK
| | - Andrzej Wuczyński
- Institute of Nature Conservation, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków 31-120, Poland
| | - Dariusz Wysocki
- Department of Vertebrate Zoology and Anthropology, Szczecin University, Szczecin 71-415, Poland
| | - Markéta Zárybnická
- Department of Ecology, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Prague 16521, Czech Republic
| | - Antoni Margalida
- Institute for Game and Wildlife Research, IREC (CSIC-UCLM-JCCM), Ciudad Real E- 13005, Spain
- Pyrenean Institute of Ecology, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Jaca 22700, Spain
| | - Konrad Halupka
- Department of Behavioural Ecology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Wrocław, Wrocław 50-335, Poland
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