Ning FL, Gu WJ, Dai LZ, Du WY, Zeng YJ, Zhang JK, Abe M, Liu YL, Zhang R, Zhang CD. Identification and initial validation of maximal tumor area as a novel prognostic factor for overall and disease-free survival in patients with resectable colon cancer: a retrospective study.
Int J Surg 2023;
109:3407-3416. [PMID:
37526113 PMCID:
PMC10651264 DOI:
10.1097/js9.0000000000000623]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/16/2023] [Accepted: 07/10/2023] [Indexed: 08/02/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND
The tumor area may be a potential prognostic indicator. The present study aimed to determine and validate the prognostic value of tumor area in curable colon cancer.
METHODS
This retrospective study included a training and validation cohorts of patients who underwent radical surgery for colon cancer. Independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were identified using Cox proportional hazards regression models. The prognostic discrimination was evaluated using the integrated area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (iAUCs) for prognostic factors and models. The prognostic discrimination between tumor area and other individual factors was compared, along with the prognostic discrimination between the tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system and other prognostic models. Two-sample Wilcoxon tests were carried out to identify significant differences between the two iAUCs. A two-sided P <0.05 was considered statistically significant.
RESULTS
A total of 3051 colon cancer patients were included in the training cohort and 872 patients in the validation cohort. Tumor area, age, differentiation, T stage, and N stage were independent prognostic factors for both OS and DFS in the training cohort. Tumor area had a better OS and DFS prognostic discrimination characteristics than T stage, maximal tumor diameter, differentiation, tumor location, and number of retrieved lymph nodes. The novel prognostic model of T stage + N stage + tumor area (iAUC for OS, 0.714, P <0.001; iAUC for DFS, 0.694, P <0.001) showed a better prognostic discrimination than the TNM staging system (T stage + N stage; iAUC for OS, 0.664; iAUC for DFS, 0.658). Similar results were observed in an independent validation cohort.
CONCLUSIONS
Tumor area was identified as an independent prognostic factor for both OS and DFS in curable colon cancer patients, and in cases with an adequate number of retrieved lymph nodes. The novel prognostic model of combining T stage, N stage, and tumor area may be an alternative to the current TNM staging system.
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