Predicting fever in neutropenia with safety-relevant events in children undergoing chemotherapy for cancer: The prospective multicenter SPOG 2015 FN Definition Study

BACKGROUND

Fever in neutropenia (FN) remains a frequent complication in pediatric patients undergoing chemotherapy for cancer. Preventive strategies, like primary antibiotic prophylaxis, need to be evidence-based.

PROCEDURE

Data on pediatric patients with any malignancy from the prospective multicenter SPOG 2015 FN Definition Study (NCT02324231) were analyzed. A score predicting the risk to develop FN with safety-relevant events (SRE; bacteremia, severe sepsis, intensive care unit admission, death) was developed using multivariate mixed Poisson regression. Its predictive performance was assessed by internal cross-validation and compared with the performance of published rules.

RESULTS

In 238 patients, 318 FN episodes were recorded, including 53 (17%) with bacteremia and 68 (21%) with SRE. The risk-prediction score used three variables: chemotherapy intensity, defined according to the expected duration of severe neutropenia, time since diagnosis, and type of malignancy. Its cross-validated performance, assessed by the time needed to cover (TNC) one event, exceeded the performance of published rules. A clinically useful score threshold of ≥11 resulted in 2.3% time at risk and 4.1 months TNC. Using external information on efficacy and timing of intermittent antibiotic prophylaxis, 4.3 months of prophylaxis were needed to prevent one FN with bacteremia, and 5.2 months to prevent one FN with SRE, using a threshold of ≥11.

CONCLUSIONS

This score, based on three routinely accessible characteristics, accurately identifies pediatric patients at risk to develop FN with SRE during chemotherapy. The score can help to design clinical decision rules on targeted primary antibiotic prophylaxis and corresponding efficacy studies.

Temperatures and blood counts in pediatric patients treated with chemotherapy for cancer, NCT01683370

Fever in neutropenia (FN) is the most frequent potentially lethal complication of chemotherapy in patients with cancer. The temperature limit defining fever (TLDF) for FN is based on scarce evidence. This prospective, single center observational study recruited non-selected pediatric patients diagnosed with cancer between ≥1 and ≤17 years in 2012 and 2013. Of 40 patients potentially eligible, 39 participated. Data of 8896 temperature measurements and 1873 complete blood counts (CBCs) were recorded over 289 months (24.1 years) of chemotherapy exposure time. During this time 43 FN episodes were diagnosed. In 32 episodes, FN diagnosis was based on reaching the local (i.e. Bern, Switzerland) standard TLDF of 39.0 °C; another 11 episodes had been captured by clinical judgement (i.e. temperature < 39.0 °C). These data can be used to simulate the effects of various TLDFs on the rate of FN diagnosis. We assume merging these data with other data sets is feasible.

Design Type(s)	observation design • cohort study design • disease detection/diagnosis objective
Measurement Type(s)	body temperature • complete blood cell count
Technology Type(s)	thermometry • blood analyzer
Factor Type(s)
Sample Characteristic(s)	Homo sapiens • whole body • Switzerland

Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data (ISA-Tab format)