Estimating the need for palliative care at the population level: A cross-national study in 12 countries

BACKGROUND

To implement the appropriate services and develop adequate interventions, detailed estimates of the needs for palliative care in the population are needed.

AIM

To estimate the proportion of decedents potentially in need of palliative care across 12 European and non-European countries.

DESIGN

This is a cross-sectional study using death certificate data.

SETTING/PARTICIPANTS

All adults (⩾18 years) who died in 2008 in Belgium, Czech Republic, France, Hungary, Italy, Spain (Andalusia, 2010), Sweden, Canada, the United States (2007), Korea, Mexico, and New Zealand ( N = 4,908,114). Underlying causes of death were used to apply three estimation methods developed by Rosenwax et al., the French National Observatory on End-of-Life Care, and Murtagh et al., respectively.

RESULTS

The proportion of individuals who died from diseases that indicate palliative care needs at the end of life ranged from 38% to 74%. We found important cross-country variation: the population potentially in need of palliative care was lower in Mexico (24%-58%) than in the United States (41%-76%) and varied from 31%-83% in Hungary to 42%-79% in Spain. Irrespective of the estimation methods, female sex and higher age were independently associated with the likelihood of being in need of palliative care near the end of life. Home and nursing home were the two places of deaths with the highest prevalence of palliative care needs.

CONCLUSION

These estimations of the size of the population potentially in need of palliative care provide robust indications of the challenge countries are facing if they want to seriously address palliative care needs at the population level.

MIAMOD: a computer package to estimate chronic disease morbidity using mortality and survival data

The MIAMOD package is for use in epidemiological analysis of chronic degenerative diseases. The package has been designed to use survival and mortality data supplied by the user, to estimate incidence and prevalence rates, to forecast future mortality and morbidity levels and to provide life tables. Estimates are derived by modelling incidence as an age-period-cohort function and by the equations relating specific cause mortality and prevalence to incidence and survival. The model parameters are evaluated by fitting mortality data by means of a weighted non-linear regression model. Numerical and statistical methods used to solve the regression and to compute standard errors, projections, and life tables are discussed. The program is written in standard FORTRAN 77 and runs on a mainframe computer. The different program units are illustrated together with the principal implementation options. An example of application is provided to show a typical output pattern.

Mortality associated with neurofibromatosis type 1: a study based on Italian death certificates (1995-2006)

BACKGROUND

Persons affected by neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1) have a decreased survival, yet information on NF1-associated mortality is limited. METHODS/AIM: The National Mortality Database and individual Multiple-Causes-of-Death records were used to estimate NF1-associated mortality in Italy in the period 1995-2006, to compare the distribution of age at death (as a proxy of survival) to that of the general population and to evaluate the relation between NF1 and other medical conditions by determining whether the distribution of underlying causes of NF1-associated deaths differs from that of general population.

RESULTS

Of the nearly 6.75 million deaths in the study period, 632 had a diagnosis of NF1, yet for nearly three-fourths of them the underlying cause was not coded as neurofibromatosis. The age distribution showed that NF1-associated deaths also occurred among the elderly, though mortality in early ages was high. The mean age for NF1-associated death was approximately 20 years lower than that for the general population. The gender differential may suggest that women are affected by more severe NF1-related complications, or they may simply reflect a greater tendency for NF1 to be reported on the death certificates of young women. Regarding the relation with other medical conditions, we found an excess, as the underlying cause of death, for malignant neoplasm of connective and other soft tissue and brain, but not for other sites. We also found an excess for obstructive chronic bronchitis and musculoskeletal system diseases among elderly persons.

CONCLUSION

This is the first nationally representative population-based study on NF1-associated mortality in Italy. It stresses the importance of the Multiple-Causes-of-Death Database in providing a more complete picture of mortality for conditions that are frequently not recorded as the underlying cause of death, or to study complex chronic diseases or diseases that have no specific International Classification of Diseases code, such as NF1. It also highlights the usefulness of already available data when a surveillance system is not fully operational.

Variation in Cause-Specific Mortality Rates in Italy during the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Study Based on Nationwide Data

Italy was a country severely hit by the first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic wave in early 2020. Mortality studies have focused on the overall excess mortality observed during the pandemic. This paper investigates the cause-specific mortality in Italy from March 2020 to April 2020 and the variation in mortality rates compared with those in 2015-2019 regarding sex, age, and epidemic area. Causes of death were derived from the national cause-of-death register. COVID-19 was the leading cause of death among males and the second leading cause among females. Chronic diseases, such as diabetes and hypertensive, ischemic heart, and cerebrovascular diseases, with decreasing or stable mortality rates in 2015-2019, showed a reversal in the mortality trend. Moreover, mortality due to pneumonia and influenza increased. No increase in neoplasm mortality was observed. Among external causes of death, mortality increased for accidental falls but reduced for transport accidents and suicide. Mortality from causes other than COVID-19 increased similarly in both genders and more at ages 65 years or above. Compared with other areas in Italy, the Lombardy region showed the largest excess in mortality for all leading causes. Underdiagnosis of COVID-19 at the beginning of the pandemic may, to some extent, explain the mortality increase for some causes of death, especially pneumonia and other respiratory diseases.

Estimation and projections of colorectal cancer trends in Italy

BACKGROUND

Occurrence of and prognosis for tumours of the colon and rectum are thought to be changing rapidly due to simultaneous changes in risk factor prevalence, early diagnosis and treatment. In this paper time trends of morbidity, survival and mortality for colorectal cancer during the period 1970-1990 are estimated and analysed.

METHODS

Mortality trends were obtained from official death certificates. Relative survival rates were computed from population-based cancer registries. Incidence and prevalence rates were estimated from mortality and survival data.

RESULTS

Incidence rates were increasing during the period considered, with a lower rate of increase for the youngest birth cohorts. Relative survival rates of both colon and rectum cancers were higher for women, and for younger age groups, and were positively associated with period of diagnosis. No significant survival difference among the cancer registries used was found. A total of about 155,000 prevalent cases, 40% of which had been diagnosed > or = 7 years before, were estimated in the Italian population for the year 1990. Mortality rates were slightly increasing for men and stable for women. Projections of colorectal cancer trends to the year 2000 indicate major expected rises in both incidence and prevalence.

CONCLUSION

Colorectal cancer represents a problem of growing impact for health services in Italy. This conclusion can probably be extended to many developed countries.

Mortality From Alzheimer’s Disease, Parkinson’s Disease, and Dementias in France and Italy

Objective: We perform an in-depth analysis of all death certificates collected in France and Italy with an entry of Parkinson’s disease (PD), Alzheimer’s disease (AD), or another dementia. Method: Data are for 2008. We measure how frequently these conditions are the underlying cause of death. We then examine what other causes are reported on the certificates. Results: In both countries, AD is the underlying cause for about 6 in 10 certificates with an AD entry. The proportion is lower for PD and dementia, but higher in France than in Italy. Many contributing causes reflect the circumstances surrounding the end of life in AD, PD, and dementia, often characterized by bed confinement and frailty. Discussion: Our research highlights several consequences of the conditions under study that could be targeted by public health policy. It also speaks to the existence of differences in diagnosis/certification practices that may explain differences in mortality levels.

The Role of COVID-19 in the Death of SARS-CoV-2-Positive Patients: A Study Based on Death Certificates

Background: Death certificates are considered the most reliable source of information to compare cause-specific mortality across countries. The aim of the present study was to examine death certificates of persons who tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) to (a) quantify the number of deaths directly caused by coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19); (b) estimate the most common complications leading to death; and (c) identify the most common comorbidities. Methods: Death certificates of persons who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 provided to the National Surveillance system were coded according to the 10th edition of the International Classification of Diseases. Deaths due to COVID-19 were defined as those in which COVID-19 was the underlying cause of death. Complications were defined as those conditions reported as originating from COVID-19, and comorbidities were conditions independent of COVID-19. Results: A total of 5311 death certificates of persons dying in March through May 2020 were analysed (16.7% of total deaths). COVID-19 was the underlying cause of death in 88% of cases. Pneumonia and respiratory failure were the most common complications, being identified in 78% and 54% of certificates, respectively. Other complications, including shock, respiratory distress and pulmonary oedema, and heart complications demonstrated a low prevalence, but they were more commonly observed in the 30-59 years age group. Comorbidities were reported in 72% of certificates, with little variation by age and gender. The most common comorbidities were hypertensive heart disease, diabetes, ischaemic heart disease, and neoplasms. Neoplasms and obesity were the main comorbidities among younger people. Discussion: In most persons dying after testing positive for SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 was the cause directly leading to death. In a large proportion of death certificates, no comorbidities were reported, suggesting that this condition can be fatal in healthy persons. Respiratory complications were common, but non-respiratory complications were also observed.

Italian Atlas of mortality inequalities by education level

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the geographical and socioeconomic differences in mortality and in life expectancy in Italy; to evaluate the proportion of mortality in the population attributable to a medium-low education level through the use of maps and indicators.

DESIGN

Longitudinal design of the population enrolled in the 2011 Italian Census, following the population over time and registering any exit due to death or emigration.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

The study used the database of the Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat) developed by linking the 2011 Census with the Italian National Register of Causes of Death (2012-2014) for 35 groups of causes of death. Age, sex, residence, and education level information were collected from the Census.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Life expectancy at birth was calculated by sex, Italian region, and education level. For the population aged 30-89 years, the following items were developed by sex: 1. provincial maps showing, for each cause of death, the distribution in quintiles of smoothed standardized mortality ratio (SMR), adjusted for age and education level and estimated with Bayesian models for small areas (spatial conditional autoregressive model); 2. regional maps of population attributable fraction (PAF) for low and medium education levels, calculated starting from age-standardized mortality ratios; 3. tables illustrating for each region standardized mortality rates and standardized years of life lost rate by age (standardized YLL rate), and mortality rate ratios standardized by age (MMRs).

RESULTS

Males with a lower education level throughout Italy show a life expectancy at birth that is 3 years less than those with higher education; residents in Southern Italy lose an additional year in life expectancy, regardless of education level. Social inequalities in mortality are present in all regions, but are more marked in the poorer regions of Southern Italy. Geographical differences, taking into account the different population distributions in terms of age and education level, produce mortality differences for all causes: from -15% to +30% in women and from -13% to +26% in men, compared to the national average. Among the main groups of causes, the geographical differences are greater for cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, and accidents, and lower for many tumour sites. A clear mortality gradient with an excess in Southern Italy can be seen for cardiovascular diseases: there are some areas where mortality for people with higher education level is higher than that for residents in Northern Italy with low education level. The gradient for "All tumours", instead, is from South to North, as it is for most single tumour sites. Population attributable fraction for low education level in Italy, taking into account the population distribution by age, is 13.4% in women and 18.3% in men.

CONCLUSIONS

The study highlighted important geographical differences in mortality, regardless of age and socioeconomic level, with a more significant impact in the poorer Southern regions, revealing a never-before-seen health advantage in the regions along the Adriatic coast. A lower education level explains a considerable proportion of mortality risk, although with differing effects by geographical area and cause of death. There are still mortality inequalities in Italy, therefore, representing a possible missed gain in health in our Country; these inequalities suggest a reassessment of priorities and definition of health targets. Forty years after the Italian National Health Service was instituted, the goal of health equity has not yet been fully achieved.

Estimation and projections of stomach cancer trends in Italy

Mortality data from official sources, and survival data from population-based cancer registries, are used for the estimation of incidence and prevalence of stomach cancer. Time trends of morbidity, survival, and mortality during the period 1970-90 are presented and analyzed. Incidence rates were decreasing during the considered period, but the rate of decrease was slowing down during the last decade. Almost stable rates, and even slightly increasing for women, were estimated for the youngest cohorts. Relative survival for stomach cancer was higher for women and for young ages; it was associated positively with period of diagnosis, and presented a significant South-North geographic gradient. Prevalence was estimated as decreasing during the period 1970-80, but increasing during the successive decade, due to both better survival and population aging. Projection of stomach cancer morbidity and mortality to the year 2000 showed that the disease should still be considered in Italy as a major public health problem.

Residential Proximity to Major Roadways and Lung Cancer Mortality. Italy, 1990-2010: An Observational Study

BACKGROUND

Air pollution from road traffic has been associated to an increased risk of lung cancer. Herein, we investigated the association between lung cancer mortality and residence near Italian highways or national major roads.

METHODS

Information on deaths for lung cancer registered from 1990 to 2010 and stratified by age, gender, and urban or rural municipality of residence at death were obtained from the National Institute of Statistics. Distance between the centroid of the municipality of residence and closest major roadways was considered as a proxy of pollution exposure. Relative Risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were computed using Poisson log-linear models adjusted for age, calendar period, deprivation index, North/South gradient, and urban/rural status.

RESULTS

A gradient in risk for lung cancer mortality was seen for residents within 50 meters (m) of national major roads. In particular, in rural municipalities a statistically significant increased risk for lung cancer death was observed in both sexes (RR = 1.27 for distance <25 m vs. 500-1999 m, 95% CI 1.17-1.42, in men; RR = 1.97, 95% CI 1.64-2.39, in women). In urban municipalities, weak risks of borderline significance were documented in both sexes (RR = 1.06, 95% CI 0.99-1.15 in men; and RR = 1.09, 95% CI 0.97-1.22 in women). No statistically significant association emerged between residence within 100 to 500 m from highways and RRs of death for lung cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

In Italy, residing near national major roads, in particular in rural municipalities, was related to elevated risks of death for lung cancer.

Sudden unexpected deaths and vaccinations during the first two years of life in Italy: a case series study

BACKGROUND

The signal of an association between vaccination in the second year of life with a hexavalent vaccine and sudden unexpected deaths (SUD) in the two days following vaccination was reported in Germany in 2003. A study to establish whether the immunisation with hexavalent vaccines increased the short term risk of SUD in infants was conducted in Italy.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The reference population comprises around 3 million infants vaccinated in Italy in the study period 1999-2004 (1.5 million received hexavalent vaccines). Events of SUD in infants aged 1-23 months were identified through the death certificates. Vaccination history was retrieved from immunisation registries. Association between immunisation and death was assessed adopting a case series design focusing on the risk periods 0-1, 0-7, and 0-14 days after immunisation. Among the 604 infants who died of SUD, 244 (40%) had received at least one vaccination. Four deaths occurred within two days from vaccination with the hexavalent vaccines (RR = 1.5; 95% CI 0.6 to 4.2). The RRs for the risk periods 0-7 and 0-14 were 2.0 (95% CI 1.2 to 3.5) and 1.5 (95% CI 0.9 to 2.4). The increased risk was limited to the first dose (RR = 2.2; 95% CI 1.1 to 4.4), whereas no increase was observed for the second and third doses combined.

CONCLUSIONS

The RRs of SUD for any vaccines and any risk periods, even when greater than 1, were almost an order of magnitude lower than the estimates in Germany. The limited increase in RRs found in Italy appears confined to the first dose and may be partly explained by a residual uncontrolled confounding effect of age.

Inequalities in infant mortality in Italy

Background

All the children of the world should be born equal, but this is not so: even in Italy, there are striking differences already at birth. Neonatal and infant mortality are accurate indexes to assess the demographic wellbeing and quality of life of a population. The aim of the present study is to analyze the infant (IMR) and neonatal (NMR) mortality rates of Italian and foreign children and to evaluate if there is a disparity among geographical macro-areas.

Methods

Data from 2006 to 2015 were collected by the Italian Statistics Bureau (ISTAT) and extracted from two different national databases, which considered i) underlying cause of death and ii) birth registry. Mortality rates were calculated using conventional definitions. The main analyses were made comparing Italian versus foreigners as a single category as well as by country origin and contrasting Northern residents versus Southern ones. Comparisons between groups were done using relative risks.

Results

Data show disparity in neonatal and infant mortality among immigrant and Italian residents. In 2015, neonatal (3.0 vs. 1.8/1000) and infant (4.5 vs 2.6/1000) mortality rates were higher among foreign children compared to Italian children. Among babies born to immigrant women, there is a higher infant mortality among children born to women coming from Central and South Africa (8.2 /1000).

Inequalities are reported even among Italian regions: in Southern Italy, infant mortality is 1.4 fold higher than in Northern Italy.

Conclusion

Inequalities in neonatal and infant mortality are evident between Italians and immigrants and among geographical macro-areas There is therefore urgent need for a political and social plan focusing on infancy.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13052-018-0594-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Mortality associated with hepatitis C and hepatitis B virus infection: A nationwide study on multiple causes of death data

AIM

To analyze mortality associated with hepatitis C virus (HCV) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in Italy.

METHODS

Death certificates mentioning either HBV or HCV infection were retrieved from the Italian National Cause of Death Register for the years 2011-2013. Mortality rates and proportional mortality (percentage of deaths with mention of HCV/HBV among all registered deaths) were computed by gender and age class. The geographical variability in HCV-related mortality rates was investigated by directly age-standardized rates (European standard population). Proportional mortality for HCV and HBV among subjects aged 20-59 years was assessed in the native population and in different immigrant groups.

RESULTS

HCV infection was mentioned in 1.6% (n = 27730) and HBV infection in 0.2% (n = 3838) of all deaths among subjects aged ≥ 20 years. Mortality rates associated with HCV infection increased exponentially with age in both genders, with a male to female ratio close to unity among the elderly; a further peak was observed in the 50-54 year age group especially among male subjects. HCV-related mortality rates were higher in Southern Italy among elderly people (45/100000 in subjects aged 60-79 and 125/100000 in subjects aged ≥ 80 years), and in North-Western Italy among middle-aged subjects (9/100000 in the 40-59 year age group). Proportional mortality was higher among Italian citizens and North African immigrants for HCV, and among Sub-Saharan African and Asian immigrants for HBV.

CONCLUSION

Population ageing, immigration, and new therapeutic approaches are shaping the epidemiology of virus-related chronic liver disease. In spite of limits due to the incomplete reporting and misclassification of the etiology of liver disease, mortality data represent an additional source of information for surveillance.

Suicide among adolescents in Italy: a nationwide cohort study of the role of family characteristics

Suicide is a leading cause of death among adolescents and is recognized as a serious public health problem. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between family characteristics and the risk of suicide among adolescents in Italy using nationwide official data. We carried out a cohort study based on the record linkage between the 15th Italian Population Census, the Italian Population Register, and the National Register of Causes of Death. Suicides in adolescents aged 10-19 years from 2012 to 2016 were analyzed. Hazard ratios of mortality from suicide were estimated through a multivariable Cox regression model using time-on-study as the time scale. We included 8,284,359 children and adolescents (51% males, 49% females). Over the 5-year follow-up, we registered 330 deaths from suicides (74% males), mostly occurred in the age class 15-19 years (86%). The suicide rate was 1.71 per 100,000 person-years among males and 0.65 among females. We found some familial characteristics associated with a higher risk of dying by suicide, including: living in single-parent or reconstructed families (among boys), a 40-year or more age gap between mother and child (among girls), having highly educated parents, an age difference between parents greater than 5 years. Furthermore, the study showed a lower risk for boys living in urban areas and for both boys and girls living in South Italy. Our results could help in identifying adolescents at high risk of suicide who could benefit from the planning of targeted intervention strategies.

Incidence, Mortality and Prevalence of Stomach Cancer in Italian Regions

The basic descriptive epidemiologic data on stomach cancer occurrence in Italian regions are presented and discussed. Incidence and prevalence were estimated from official mortality and survival data provided by four population-based Italian cancer registries. Age-adjusted mortality, incidence, and prevalence rates are presented by region for the year 1990. Time trends of incidence and their projection for the year 2000 are also presented by region and three broad age classes. Althrough the occurence of stomach cancer has been decreasing in Italy and most western countries over the last decades, a substantial slowing down of this decrease was evidenced in Italy, especially for women under 65 and for the regions of southern Italy. A marked tendency towards a reduction of geographic heterogeneity in stomach cancer occurrence was also shown. Such a phenomenon is consistent with the observed changes of dietary habits in Italian regions. The regions of Umbria and The Marches seem to emerge as new areas at relatively high risk of stomach cancer incidence and mortality. About 45,000 prevalent cases were estimated in Italy by 1990, half of which have been diagnosed before 1984.

Multiple cause-of-death data among people with AIDS in Italy: a nationwide cross-sectional study

Background

Multiple cause-of-death (MCOD) data allow analyzing the contribution to mortality of conditions reported on the death certificate that are not selected as the underlying cause of death. Using MCOD data, this study aimed to fully describe the cause-specific mortality of people with AIDS (PWA) compared to people without AIDS.

Methods

We conducted a nationwide investigation based on death certificates of 2,515 Italian PWA and 123,224 people without AIDS who had died between 2006 and 2010. The conditions most frequently associated with PWA mortality, compared to people without AIDS, were identified using an age-standardized proportion ratio (ASPR) calculated as the ratio between the age-standardized proportion of a specific cause among PWA and the same proportion among people without AIDS.

Results

The most frequently reported conditions at death among PWA were infectious/parasitic diseases (52%), digestive (36%), respiratory (33%), and circulatory (32%) system diseases, and neoplasms (29%). All AIDS-defining conditions resulted highly associated (ASPR significantly greater than unity) with PWA deaths. Significant associations also emerged for leishmaniasis (ASPR = 188.0), encephalitis/myelitis/encephalomyelitis (ASPR = 14.3), dementia (ASPR = 13.1), chronic viral hepatitis (ASPR = 13.1), liver fibrosis/cirrhosis (ASPR = 4.4), pneumonia (ASPR = 4.4), anal (ASPR = 12.1) and liver (ASPR = 1.9) cancers, and Hodgkin’s disease (ASPR = 3.1).

Conclusions

Study findings identified the contribution of several non-AIDS-defining conditions on PWA mortality, emphasizing the need of preventive public health interventions targeting this population.

Educational inequality in cancer mortality: a record linkage study of over 35 million Italians

PURPOSE

Large studies are needed to evaluate socioeconomic inequality for site-specific cancer mortality. We conducted a longitudinal census-based national study to quantify the relative inequality in cancer mortality among educational levels in Italy.

METHODS

We linked the 2011 Italian census with the 2012 and 2013 death registries. Educational inequality in overall cancer and site-specific cancer mortality were evaluated by computing the mortality rate ratio (MRR).

RESULTS

A total of 35,708,445 subjects aged 30-74 years and 147,981 cancer deaths were registered. Compared to the lowest level of education (none or primary school), the MRR for all cancers in the highest level (university) was 0.57 (95% CI 0.55; 0.58) in men and 0.84 (95% CI 0.81; 0.87) in women. Higher education was associated with reduced risk of mortality from lip, oral cavity, pharynx, oesophagus, stomach, colon and liver in both sexes. Higher education (university) was associated with decreased risk of lung cancer in men (MRR: 0.43, 95% CI 0.41; 0.46), but not in women (MRR: 1.00, 95% CI 0.92; 1.10). Highly educated women had a reduced risk of mortality from cervical cancer than lower educated women (MRR: 0.39, 95% CI 0.27; 0.56), but they had a similar risk for breast cancer (MRR: 1.01, 95% CI 0.94; 1.09).

CONCLUSIONS

Education is inversely associated with total cancer mortality, and the association was stronger in men. Different patterns and trends in tobacco smoking in men and women account for at least most of the gender differences.

Large-scale hormone replacement therapy and life expectancy: results from an international comparison among European and North American populations

OBJECTIVES

An analysis was performed to determine the risks and benefits of a 10-year hormone replacement therapy regimen that had been applied to all women at 50 years of age in 8 countries.

METHODS

Cumulative mortality with and without hormone replacement therapy over 20 years was estimated, with both current and predicted total and disease-specific secular mortality trends and the influence of a generational cohort effect taken into account.

RESULTS

In countries with high ischemic heart disease frequency and predictable relative predominance of ischemic heart disease rates over breast cancer rates for the next 20 years, hormone replacement therapy could result in benefits with regard to overall mortality; this advantage decreases in younger-generation cohorts. In countries in which breast cancer mortality predominates over ischemic heart disease in early postmenopause and in which the predictable trends for both diseases reinforce this condition, a negative effect on overall mortality would be observed. In the United States, the effect of large-scale hormone replacement therapy would change over time.

CONCLUSIONS

The long-term effect of hormone replacement therapy on life expectancy of postmenopausal women may vary among countries.

Trends of Colorectal Cancer Incidence and Prevalence in Italian Regions

Incidence and prevalence of tumors of colon and rectum, estimated from mortality and survival data, are presented for Italian regions and for the period 1970-1990. Projected rates to the year 2000 are also given. Age-standardized incidence rates have increased during the considered period. The increase has been higher for southern regions, which had, during the 70's, the lowest incidence and mortality levels. Geographic heterogeneity of colorectal cancer occurrence across Italian regions is therefore decreasing. The phenomenon parallels a tendency towards the homogenization of dietary habits observed in the Italian population. Estimated incidence levels increased less for the younger generation and appear stable for people born after 1940. More than 150,000 prevalent cases were estimated by the year 1990. The number is likely to increase owing to the simultaneous increasing tendency in incidence and survival rates.

Multi-morbidity and frailty at death: A new classification of death records for an ageing world

Mortality statistics based on underlying cause of death are challenged by increased life expectancy and the growing share of population reaching ages associated with frequent multi-morbidity (with death likely resulting from interactions between multiple diseases). We provide a novel way of analysing causes of death: accounting for all causes mentioned on death certificates and summarizing this information along two dimensions emblematic of ageing populations-multi-morbidity and frailty. We implement this classification for all deaths at ages 50+ in Italy in 2014. Multi-morbid processes represent the majority of deaths, rising from 43 per cent at ages 50-54 to 63 per cent at ages 85-89. Multi-morbidity at death is more frequent among males, although age patterns are identical for both sexes. About one in four deaths involves frailty symptoms, rising to 45 per cent at ages 95+. Mortality rates involving frailty are very similar for both sexes. Supplementary material is available for this article at: https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2020.1820558.

Salmon bias effect as hypothesis of the lower mortality rates among immigrants in Italy

Compared with natives, immigrants have lower all-cause mortality rates, despite their lower socioeconomic status, an epidemiological paradox generally explained by the healthy migrant effect. Another hypothesis is the so-called salmon bias effect: "statistically immortal" subjects return to their country of origin when they expect to die shortly, but their deaths are not registered in the statistics of the country of residence. This underestimation of deaths determines an artificially low immigrant mortality rate. We aimed to estimate the potential salmon bias effect on differences in mortality rates between Italians and immigrants. We used a national cohort of all Italians registered in the 2011 census and followed up for mortality from 2012 to 2016. Mortality data were retrieved from the Causes of Death Register, which included all deaths occurring in the country and the Resident Population Register, which collects also the deaths occurring abroad. We assumed as a possible salmon bias event the death of an immigrant resident in Italy that died in his/her country of origin. Considering the deaths occurring in the country of origin, we observed an 18.1% increase in the overall mortality rates for immigrants and an increase of 23.7% in the age-standardized mortality rate. Mortality rates of immigrants resident in Italy, calculated without taking into account the deaths occurring in the country of origin, are certainly underestimated. However, the salmon bias only partly explains the difference in mortality rates between immigrants and Italians.