The impacts of Persian Gulf water and ocean-atmosphere interactions on tropical cyclone intensification in the Arabian Sea

During the last two decades, the number of tropical cyclone (TC) events in the Arabian Sea has increased dramatically. These events have led to severe human and economic damage in Oman, Iran and Pakistan. Within this context, Gonu, Phet and Shaheen were the Arabian Sea's most destructive TCs on record, leading to a total of 6.07 billion USD in damages and 159 fatalities. Previous studies have mainly focused on atmospheric, sea surface temperature (SST) and anthropogenic impacts of TC generation and intensification. By contrast, oceanographic currents, Persian Gulf water outflow and the role of ocean-atmospheric interactions on the distribution of outflow water into the Arabian Sea and their impacts on TC intensification, are poorly understood. In order to address this issue, we use historical TC records, satellite data, atmospheric and reanalyzed oceanographic data to shed new light on the relationship between large-scale atmospheric forcing and ocean currents on TC intensification in the Arabian Sea. The results demonstrate that pre-monsoon TCs mainly occurred during co-existing La Niña, cold Indian Ocean Basin Model (IOBM) and anomalous northern hemisphere circulations over the Persian Gulf. By contrast, post-monsoon TCs were generally generated during warming acceleration period. Poleward movement of the monsoon belt provided the required humidity and energy for TC generation and increased upwelling events. Water salinity and temperature have increased in the north and northwestern parts of the Arabian Sea following rising upwelling events and a decrease in Persian Gulf outflow water depth. Rapid TC intensification has increased noticeably since 2007 and >72 % of cyclones have reached category 3 or more. We find that the rate of SST rise in the Arabian Sea is higher than the other parts of the northern Indian Ocean since 1998. SST and salinity in the Arabian Sea have been controlled by Persian Gulf outflow water and oceanographic currents. TC intensity is controlled by warm and saline (>36.6 PSU) water distribution patterns, mediated by eddy and jet currents. Rapid intensification of pre-monsoon TCs occurred by tracking to the north and northwest, with most landfalls occurring during this period. Post-monsoon TCs generally affect the center and the southwest of the Arabian Sea. The risk of intensive TCs manifests an increasing trend since 2007, therefore education programs via international platforms such as the International Ocean Institute (IOI) and UNESCO are required for the countries most at risk.

Climate change threatens olive oil production in the Levant

The olive tree (Olea europaea L.) is one of the species best adapted to a Mediterranean-type climate^1-8. Nonetheless, the Mediterranean Basin is deemed to be a climate change 'hotspot' by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change^9,10 because future model projections suggest considerable warming and drying^11,12. Within this context, new environmental challenges will arise in the coming decades, which will both weaken and threaten olive-growing areas, leading to a loss of productivity and changes in fruit and oil quality^13-15. Olive growing, a core of the Mediterranean economy, might soon be under stress. To probe the link between climate and olive trees, we here report 5,400 years of olive tree dynamics from the ancient city of Tyre, Lebanon. We show that optimal fruiting scales closely with temperature. Present-day and palaeo data define an optimal annual average temperature of 16.9 ± 0.3 °C for olive flowering that has existed at least since the Neolithic period. According to our projections, during the second half of the twenty-first century, temperature increases in Lebanon will have detrimental consequences on olive tree growth and olive oil production, especially in the country's southern regions, which will become too hot for optimal flowering and fruiting. These data provide a template to understand present and future thresholds of olive production under climate change.

Evaluation of metal contamination in the Mand River delta, Persian Gulf

Mand River is one of four permanent rivers flowing into the Persian Gulf. Intense industrial activities have significantly impacted its watershed and estuary. In order to evaluate metal contamination and their provenance nine sediment samples were taken from the Mand Delta. Enrichment factors were employed to detect anthropogenic contributions to levels of metal pollution. We also calculated weathering indices in order to identify the source of the metals, related to geological units. Pollution levels were assessed using the modified degree of contamination. Geological units, oil combustion, aerosols and industrial activities are the main factors controlling the abundance of Cr, As, Ni and Pb. Wave action, coastal currents, grain-size parameters, mineralogy, bio-accommodation and organic matter are the factors affecting the distribution and concentration of metals in the study area. More studies are needed to evaluate the impact of metal pollution on the fisheries industry and public health.