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Lotze HK, Mellon S, Coyne J, Betts M, Burchell M, Fennel K, Dusseault MA, Fuller SD, Galbraith E, Garcia Suarez L, de Gelleke L, Golombek N, Kelly B, Kuehn SD, Oliver E, MacKinnon M, Muraoka W, Predham IT, Rutherford K, Shackell N, Sherwood O, Sibert EC, Kienast M. Long-term ocean and resource dynamics in a hotspot of climate change. Facets (Ott) 2022. [DOI: 10.1139/facets-2021-0197] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
The abundance, distribution, and size of marine species are linked to temperature and nutrient regimes and are profoundly affected by humans through exploitation and climate change. Yet little is known about long-term historical links between ocean environmental changes and resource abundance to provide context for current and potential future trends and inform conservation and management. We synthesize >4000 years of climate and marine ecosystem dynamics in a Northwest Atlantic region currently undergoing rapid changes, the Gulf of Maine and Scotian Shelf. This period spans the late Holocene cooling and recent warming and includes both Indigenous and European influence. We compare environmental records from instrumental, sedimentary, coral, and mollusk archives with ecological records from fossils, archaeological, historical, and modern data, and integrate future model projections of environmental and ecosystem changes. This multidisciplinary synthesis provides insight into multiple reference points and shifting baselines of environmental and ecosystem conditions, and projects a near-future departure from natural climate variability in 2028 for the Scotian Shelf and 2034 for the Gulf of Maine. Our work helps advancing integrative end-to-end modeling to improve the predictive capacity of ecosystem forecasts with climate change. Our results can be used to adjust marine conservation strategies and network planning and adapt ecosystem-based management with climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Heike K. Lotze
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Stefanie Mellon
- Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Jonathan Coyne
- Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Matthew Betts
- Canadian Museum of History, Gatineau, QC K1A 0M8, Canada
| | - Meghan Burchell
- Department of Archaeology, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, NL A1C 5S7, Canada
| | - Katja Fennel
- Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Marisa A. Dusseault
- Department of Archaeology, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, NL A1C 5S7, Canada
| | | | - Eric Galbraith
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, QC H3A 0E8, Canada
- Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA-UAB), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Lina Garcia Suarez
- Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Laura de Gelleke
- Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Nina Golombek
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
| | | | - Sarah D. Kuehn
- Department of Archaeology, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, NL A1C 5S7, Canada
| | - Eric Oliver
- Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Megan MacKinnon
- Department of Archaeology, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, NL A1C 5S7, Canada
| | - Wendy Muraoka
- Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Ian T.G. Predham
- Department of Archaeology, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, NL A1C 5S7, Canada
| | - Krysten Rutherford
- Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Nancy Shackell
- Ocean and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Dartmouth, NS B3B 1J6, Canada
| | - Owen Sherwood
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Elizabeth C. Sibert
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Yale University, PO Box 208109, New Haven, CT 06520, USA
- Yale Institute for Biospheric Studies, Yale University, 170 Whitney Avenue, New Haven, CT 06511, USA
| | - Markus Kienast
- Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
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