Estimating the epidemic growth dynamics within the first week

Information about the early growth of infectious outbreaks is indispensable to estimate the epidemic spreading. A large number of mathematical tools have been developed to this end, facing as much large number of different dynamic evolutions, ranging from sub-linear to super-exponential growth. Of course, the crucial point is that we do not have enough data during the initial outbreak phase to make reliable inferences. Here we propose a straightforward methodology to estimate the epidemic growth dynamic from the cumulative infected data of just a week, provided a surveillance system is available over the whole territory. The methodology, based on the Newcomb-Benford Law, is applied to the Italian covid 19 case-study. Results show that it is possible to discriminate the epidemic dynamics using the first seven data points collected in fifty Italian cities. Moreover, the most probable approximating function of the growth within a six-week epidemic scenario is identified.

[Effects of fenoverine on biliary kinetics evaluated by hepatobiliary scintigraphy with 99mTc-Br-IDA]

Hepatobiliary scintigraphy was used to evaluate the action of fenoverine in 16 patients suffering from dyskinesia of the biliary tract; the drug was administered in doses of 300 mg per day per os for 20 days, the patients being subjected to hepatobiliary scintigraphy before and after treatment. The following parameters--accurate indicators of the motor coordination of the biliary tract--were evaluated: tracer appearance time in the gallbladder (Tc) and in the intestine (Ti). After treatment there was a normalization of these two parameters which initially were extended. Statistical analysis showed a highly significant reduction in these times. Stress is laid on the importance of hepatobiliary scintigraphy in the diagnosis of biliary dyskinesia and on the effectiveness of fenoverine in the treatment of this conditions.

[Protirelin in the treatment of cerebrovascular disorders]

Effects of protirelin tartrate, administered for 14 days (2 mg/day, i.m.) to 15 patients with acute cerebrovascular disease have been investigated. The evaluation was performed by means of SPECT, at enrollment and at the end of treatment. This evaluation was aimed at the early detection of ischemic damage and assessment of the size of the hypoperfusion area. Treatment with protirelin tartrate was well tolerated and led to definite improvement of the scintigraphic findings in about 74% of the patients.

[Effect of clebopride on gastric emptying studied using a physiologic meal marked with Tc 99m colloid in subjects with non-ulcer dyspepsia]

The authors studied the action of clebopride on gastric emptying in subjects with non-ulcer dyspepsia by using radioactive isotopes. Eighteen subjects complaining of dyspeptic symptoms were studied in whom the tests undertaken had not shown organic lesions of the digestive tract. Tests with radioactive isotopes were performed before and after administration of clebopride (0.5 mg, three times daily for 15 days). In all patients gastric emptying time was normalized and gastric peristalsis became regular. In addition, in 85% of the patients, symptoms disappeared or were markedly reduced. Side effects requiring withdrawal of the drug were not observed. The above study, therefore, showed clebopride to be a useful drug for the treatment of non-ulcer dyspepsia, thus confirming data found in the literature.