1
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Gidden MJ, Gasser T, Grassi G, Forsell N, Janssens I, Lamb WF, Minx J, Nicholls Z, Steinhauser J, Riahi K. Aligning climate scenarios to emissions inventories shifts global benchmarks. Nature 2023; 624:102-108. [PMID: 37993713 PMCID: PMC10700135 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06724-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/13/2023] [Accepted: 10/06/2023] [Indexed: 11/24/2023]
Abstract
Taking stock of global progress towards achieving the Paris Agreement requires consistently measuring aggregate national actions and pledges against modelled mitigation pathways1. However, national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) and scientific assessments of anthropogenic emissions follow different accounting conventions for land-based carbon fluxes resulting in a large difference in the present emission estimates2,3, a gap that will evolve over time. Using state-of-the-art methodologies4 and a land carbon-cycle emulator5, we align the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-assessed mitigation pathways with the NGHGIs to make a comparison. We find that the key global mitigation benchmarks become harder to achieve when calculated using the NGHGI conventions, requiring both earlier net-zero CO2 timing and lower cumulative emissions. Furthermore, weakening natural carbon removal processes such as carbon fertilization can mask anthropogenic land-based removal efforts, with the result that land-based carbon fluxes in NGHGIs may ultimately become sources of emissions by 2100. Our results are important for the Global Stocktake6, suggesting that nations will need to increase the collective ambition of their climate targets to remain consistent with the global temperature goals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew J Gidden
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
- Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany.
| | - Thomas Gasser
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Giacomo Grassi
- Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy
| | - Nicklas Forsell
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Iris Janssens
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
- Department of Computer Science, imec, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium
| | - William F Lamb
- Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin, Germany
- Priestley International Centre of Climate, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Jan Minx
- Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin, Germany
- Priestley International Centre of Climate, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Zebedee Nicholls
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
- Melbourne Climate Future's Doctoral Academy, School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
- Climate Resource, Northcote, Victoria, Australia
| | - Jan Steinhauser
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Keywan Riahi
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
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2
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Ou Y, Iyer G, Clarke L, Edmonds J, Fawcett AA, Hultman N, McFarland JR, Binsted M, Cui R, Fyson C, Geiges A, Gonzales-Zuñiga S, Gidden MJ, Höhne N, Jeffery L, Kuramochi T, Lewis J, Meinshausen M, Nicholls Z, Patel P, Ragnauth S, Rogelj J, Waldhoff S, Yu S, McJeon H. Can updated climate pledges limit warming well below 2°C? Science 2021; 374:693-695. [PMID: 34735225 DOI: 10.1126/science.abl8976] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
[Figure: see text].
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Affiliation(s)
- Yang Ou
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | - Gokul Iyer
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | - Leon Clarke
- Center for Global Sustainability, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | - Jae Edmonds
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | | | - Nathan Hultman
- Center for Global Sustainability, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA.,US Department of State, Washington, DC 20520, USA
| | | | - Matthew Binsted
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | - Ryna Cui
- Center for Global Sustainability, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | | | | | | | - Matthew J Gidden
- Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany.,International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Niklas Höhne
- NewClimate Institute, Cologne, Germany.,Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, Netherlands
| | | | - Takeshi Kuramochi
- NewClimate Institute, Cologne, Germany.,Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Jared Lewis
- Australian-German Climate and Energy College, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.,School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.,Climate Resource, Northcote, Victoria, Australia
| | - Malte Meinshausen
- Australian-German Climate and Energy College, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.,School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.,Climate Resource, Northcote, Victoria, Australia
| | - Zebedee Nicholls
- Australian-German Climate and Energy College, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.,School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.,Climate Resource, Northcote, Victoria, Australia
| | - Pralit Patel
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | | | - Joeri Rogelj
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.,Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Stephanie Waldhoff
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | - Sha Yu
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | - Haewon McJeon
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
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3
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Huppmann D, Gidden MJ, Nicholls Z, Hörsch J, Lamboll R, Kishimoto PN, Burandt T, Fricko O, Byers E, Kikstra J, Brinkerink M, Budzinski M, Maczek F, Zwickl-Bernhard S, Welder L, Álvarez Quispe EF, Smith CJ. pyam: Analysis and visualisation of integrated assessment and macro-energy scenarios. Open Res Eur 2021; 1:74. [PMID: 37645194 PMCID: PMC10446008 DOI: 10.12688/openreseurope.13633.2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 08/12/2021] [Indexed: 08/31/2023]
Abstract
The open-source Python package pyam provides a suite of features and methods for the analysis, validation and visualization of reference data and scenario results generated by integrated assessment models, macro-energy tools and other frameworks in the domain of energy transition, climate change mitigation and sustainable development. It bridges the gap between scenario processing and visualisation solutions that are "hard-wired" to specific modelling frameworks and generic data analysis or plotting packages. The package aims to facilitate reproducibility and reliability of scenario processing, validation and analysis by providing well-tested and documented methods for working with timeseries data in the context of climate policy and energy systems. It supports various data formats, including sub-annual resolution using continuous time representation and "representative timeslices". The pyam package can be useful for modelers generating scenario results using their own tools as well as researchers and analysts working with existing scenario ensembles such as those supporting the IPCC reports or produced in research projects. It is structured in a way that it can be applied irrespective of a user's domain expertise or level of Python knowledge, supporting experts as well as novice users. The code base is implemented following best practices of collaborative scientific-software development. This manuscript describes the design principles of the package and the types of data which can be handled. The usefulness of pyam is illustrated by highlighting several recent applications.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel Huppmann
- Energy, Climate and Environment Program (ECE), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Matthew J. Gidden
- Energy, Climate and Environment Program (ECE), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
- Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany
| | - Zebedee Nicholls
- Climate & Energy College, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
- School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
| | | | - Robin Lamboll
- The Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Paul N. Kishimoto
- Energy, Climate and Environment Program (ECE), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Thorsten Burandt
- Workgroup for Infrastructure Policy, Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Oliver Fricko
- Energy, Climate and Environment Program (ECE), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Edward Byers
- Energy, Climate and Environment Program (ECE), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Jarmo Kikstra
- Energy, Climate and Environment Program (ECE), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
- The Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Maarten Brinkerink
- MaREI Centre, Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland
| | - Maik Budzinski
- Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | | | | | | | | | - Christopher J. Smith
- Energy, Climate and Environment Program (ECE), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
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4
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Affiliation(s)
- Marina Andrijevic
- Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany. .,Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany
| | - Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
- Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany.,Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany
| | - Matthew J Gidden
- Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany.,Energy Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - David L McCollum
- Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA, USA.,Howard H. Baker Jr. Center for Public Policy, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA
| | - Joeri Rogelj
- Energy Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. .,Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, UK
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5
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Affiliation(s)
- Marina Andrijevic
- Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany.
- Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany
| | - Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
- Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany
- Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany
| | - Matthew J Gidden
- Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany
- Energy Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - David L McCollum
- Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA, USA
- Howard H. Baker Jr. Center for Public Policy, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA
| | - Joeri Rogelj
- Energy Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
- Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, UK
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6
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Forster PM, Forster HI, Evans MJ, Gidden MJ, Jones CD, Keller CA, Lamboll RD, Quéré CL, Rogelj J, Rosen D, Schleussner CF, Richardson TB, Smith CJ, Turnock ST. Erratum: Publisher Correction: Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19. Nat Clim Chang 2020; 10:971. [PMID: 32845944 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0883-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 164] [Impact Index Per Article: 41.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2020] [Accepted: 07/24/2020] [Indexed: 05/18/2023]
Abstract
[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0883-0.].
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Affiliation(s)
- Piers M Forster
- Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | | | - Mat J Evans
- Wolfson Atmospheric Chemistry Laboratories, Department of Chemistry, University of York, York, UK
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of York, York, UK
| | - Matthew J Gidden
- Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany
- Energy Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | | | - Christoph A Keller
- NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD USA
- Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, MD USA
| | - Robin D Lamboll
- Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Corinne Le Quéré
- School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
- Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
| | - Joeri Rogelj
- Energy Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
- Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Deborah Rosen
- Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | | | | | - Christopher J Smith
- Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
- Energy Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Steven T Turnock
- Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
- Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
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Forster PM, Forster HI, Evans MJ, Gidden MJ, Jones CD, Keller CA, Lamboll RD, Quéré CL, Rogelj J, Rosen D, Schleussner CF, Richardson TB, Smith CJ, Turnock ST. Erratum: Publisher Correction: Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19. Nat Clim Chang 2020; 10:971. [PMID: 32845944 PMCID: PMC7427494 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0904-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 51] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0883-0.].
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Affiliation(s)
- Piers M. Forster
- Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | | | - Mat J. Evans
- Wolfson Atmospheric Chemistry Laboratories, Department of Chemistry, University of York, York, UK
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of York, York, UK
| | - Matthew J. Gidden
- Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany
- Energy Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | | | - Christoph A. Keller
- NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD USA
- Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, MD USA
| | - Robin D. Lamboll
- Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Corinne Le Quéré
- School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
- Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
| | - Joeri Rogelj
- Energy Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
- Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Deborah Rosen
- Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | | | | | - Christopher J. Smith
- Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
- Energy Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Steven T. Turnock
- Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
- Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
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8
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Gidden MJ, Wilson PP. A methodology for determining the dynamic exchange of resources in nuclear fuel cycle simulation. Nuclear Engineering and Design 2016. [DOI: 10.1016/j.nucengdes.2016.10.029] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
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9
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Pearce TM, Williams JJ, Kruzel SP, Gidden MJ, Williams JC. Dynamic control of extracellular environment in in vitro neural recording systems. IEEE Trans Neural Syst Rehabil Eng 2005; 13:207-12. [PMID: 16003901 DOI: 10.1109/tnsre.2005.848685] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
Abstract
A technique is presented for rapid fabrication of microfluidic channels on top of multichannel in vitro neural recording electrode arrays. The channels allow dynamic control of both stable and transient flow patterns over localized areas of the array, over biologically relevant timescales. A cellular model consisting of thermally sensitive dorsal root ganglion neurons was integrated into the devices. The device was used to demonstrate precise control of the extracellular microenvironment of individual cells on the array. Since the methods presented here are not specific to a particular cell type or neural recording system, the technique is amenable to a wide range of applications within the neuroscience field.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas M Pearce
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706, USA
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