Assessing social contracts for urban adaptation through social listening on Twitter

Adapting to climate change impacts requires a coherent social contract in which different actors agree on a clear distribution of roles and responsibilities. An urgent requirement is to understand the imagined social contracts on expected roles and responsibilities, which is particularly relevant in cities where very diverse social groups come together. However, there is limited empirical evidence on these expectations as they are often tacit and hard to capture across large populations and heterogeneous groups. Here we assess the social contract on flood risk management in Mumbai, using the concept of social listening in combination with Twitter data. We find wide gaps between and within imagined social contracts. Sentiments such as frustration and apathy expressed in tweets explain these gaps and highlight the need to build trust for achieving accepted and effective social contracts for adaptation. Theoretical, empirical, and methodological lessons can be transferred to other cities and beyond.

Sea level rise risks and societal adaptation benefits in low-lying coastal areas

Sea level rise (SLR) will increase adaptation needs along low-lying coasts worldwide. Despite centuries of experience with coastal risk, knowledge about the effectiveness and feasibility of societal adaptation on the scale required in a warmer world remains limited. This paper contrasts end-century SLR risks under two warming and two adaptation scenarios, for four coastal settlement archetypes (Urban Atoll Islands, Arctic Communities, Large Tropical Agricultural Deltas, Resource-Rich Cities). We show that adaptation will be substantially beneficial to the continued habitability of most low-lying settlements over this century, at least until the RCP8.5 median SLR level is reached. However, diverse locations worldwide will experience adaptation limits over the course of this century, indicating situations where even ambitious adaptation cannot sufficiently offset a failure to effectively mitigate greenhouse-gas emissions.

Understanding human vulnerability to climate change: A global perspective on index validation for adaptation planning

Climate change is a severe global threat. Research on climate change and vulnerability to natural hazards has made significant progress over the last decades. Most of the research has been devoted to improving the quality of climate information and hazard data, including exposure to specific phenomena, such as flooding or sea-level rise. Less attention has been given to the assessment of vulnerability and embedded social, economic and historical conditions that foster vulnerability of societies. A number of global vulnerability assessments based on indicators have been developed over the past years. Yet an essential question remains how to validate those assessments at the global scale. This paper examines different options to validate global vulnerability assessments in terms of their internal and external validity, focusing on two global vulnerability indicator systems used in the WorldRiskIndex and the INFORM index. The paper reviews these global index systems as best practices and at the same time presents new analysis and global results that show linkages between the level of vulnerability and disaster outcomes. Both the review and new analysis support each other and help to communicate the validity and the uncertainty of vulnerability assessments. Next to statistical validation methods, we discuss the importance of the appropriate link between indicators, data and the indicandum. We found that mortality per hazard event from floods, drought and storms is 15 times higher for countries ranked as highly vulnerable compared to those classified as low vulnerable. These findings highlight the different starting points of countries in their move towards climate resilient development. Priority should be given not just to those regions that are likely to face more severe climate hazards in the future but also to those confronted with high vulnerability already.

Natural hazard's effect and farmers' perception: Perspectives from flash floods and landslides in remotely mountainous regions of Vietnam

Understanding perceptions of indigenous people toward natural disasters is essential in social and environmental research to facilitate further studies in investigating the impacts of the events, as well as in examining the adaptive strategies and having implications for policymakers and relevant institutional bodies. We took this essential feature to study the perceptions of local people toward the two common natural disasters: flash floods and landslides. We selected the case study in three communes (An Binh, An Thinh, and Dai Son) in Van Yen district, Yen Bai province in Vietnam. This is because flash floods and landslides are two frequent natural disasters that highly adversely affect these areas where major poor ethnic minority communities reside. We conducted six Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and household surveys (405 households) in 2016. The results showed that a decline in productivity, a decrease in income, more hard-working conditions, and an increase in daily expenses were the most observed impacts of these natural disasters in the communes. The analysis also revealed that almost 45% of farmers perceived an increasing trend in the frequency and impacts of flash floods and landslides over the past 15 years. A Multinomial Logit (MNL) model was used to analyze the determinants of farmers' awareness of flash floods and landslides, which indicated that farmers' perceptions of flash floods and landslides are associated with socio-economic characteristics, such as gender, agricultural experience, ethnic groups, climate information, and household income conditions. We suggested that local governments should pay more attention to strengthen farmers' awareness to help improve perceptions of local people toward common natural disasters so that they would gain better adaptive capacities and become more sustainable, which are in line with the Sustainable Development Goals.

Farmers' decisions to adapt to flash floods and landslides in the Northern Mountainous Regions of Vietnam

Understanding household's decision making in agricultural production to natural hazards is significant for policymakers and extension organizations in supporting farmers to optimize adaptive strategies, there are, however, still limited empirical researches that emphasize the determinants affecting the choice of measures in the process of adaptation. This paper explores the decision-making process of rural households in adapting to flash floods and landslides (FF&LS) by conducting a household survey on 405 purposively selected households in Yen Bai province, one of the poorest mountainous regions in Vietnam. Based on the multi-portfolio framework, the study assumes that farmers have multiple choice of adaptation strategies simultaneously and these adaptation measures are correlative. Multivariate Probit models were used to figure out the household decision making process in adapting to FF&LS. Survey results showed that changing cropping patterns, crop variegation, diversifying types of crop varieties, as well as managing and implementing crop protection (soil and plant) are the primary adaptation measures applied by local farmers. Furthermore, lack of money, inadequate support from local government, shortage of machinery and technical equipment, as well as insufficient knowledge about FF&LS were listed as major constraints in the study area. The MVP analysis indicated that all farmers' perception, socio-economic, farming features, and institutional conditions strongly influence the farmers' adaptation decisions regarding FF&LS. Future policies may therefore need to consider these major contributing factors with appropriate interventions to facilitate suitable adaptations for local farmers.