Worldwide trends in body-mass index, underweight, overweight, and obesity from 1975 to 2016: a pooled analysis of 2416 population-based measurement studies in 128·9 million children, adolescents, and adults

BACKGROUND

Underweight, overweight, and obesity in childhood and adolescence are associated with adverse health consequences throughout the life-course. Our aim was to estimate worldwide trends in mean body-mass index (BMI) and a comprehensive set of BMI categories that cover underweight to obesity in children and adolescents, and to compare trends with those of adults.

METHODS

We pooled 2416 population-based studies with measurements of height and weight on 128·9 million participants aged 5 years and older, including 31·5 million aged 5-19 years. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2016 in 200 countries for mean BMI and for prevalence of BMI in the following categories for children and adolescents aged 5-19 years: more than 2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference for children and adolescents (referred to as moderate and severe underweight hereafter), 2 SD to more than 1 SD below the median (mild underweight), 1 SD below the median to 1 SD above the median (healthy weight), more than 1 SD to 2 SD above the median (overweight but not obese), and more than 2 SD above the median (obesity).

FINDINGS

Regional change in age-standardised mean BMI in girls from 1975 to 2016 ranged from virtually no change (-0·01 kg/m2 per decade; 95% credible interval -0·42 to 0·39, posterior probability [PP] of the observed decrease being a true decrease=0·5098) in eastern Europe to an increase of 1·00 kg/m2 per decade (0·69-1·35, PP>0·9999) in central Latin America and an increase of 0·95 kg/m2 per decade (0·64-1·25, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. The range for boys was from a non-significant increase of 0·09 kg/m2 per decade (-0·33 to 0·49, PP=0·6926) in eastern Europe to an increase of 0·77 kg/m2 per decade (0·50-1·06, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Trends in mean BMI have recently flattened in northwestern Europe and the high-income English-speaking and Asia-Pacific regions for both sexes, southwestern Europe for boys, and central and Andean Latin America for girls. By contrast, the rise in BMI has accelerated in east and south Asia for both sexes, and southeast Asia for boys. Global age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 0·7% (0·4-1·2) in 1975 to 5·6% (4·8-6·5) in 2016 in girls, and from 0·9% (0·5-1·3) in 1975 to 7·8% (6·7-9·1) in 2016 in boys; the prevalence of moderate and severe underweight decreased from 9·2% (6·0-12·9) in 1975 to 8·4% (6·8-10·1) in 2016 in girls and from 14·8% (10·4-19·5) in 1975 to 12·4% (10·3-14·5) in 2016 in boys. Prevalence of moderate and severe underweight was highest in India, at 22·7% (16·7-29·6) among girls and 30·7% (23·5-38·0) among boys. Prevalence of obesity was more than 30% in girls in Nauru, the Cook Islands, and Palau; and boys in the Cook Islands, Nauru, Palau, Niue, and American Samoa in 2016. Prevalence of obesity was about 20% or more in several countries in Polynesia and Micronesia, the Middle East and north Africa, the Caribbean, and the USA. In 2016, 75 (44-117) million girls and 117 (70-178) million boys worldwide were moderately or severely underweight. In the same year, 50 (24-89) million girls and 74 (39-125) million boys worldwide were obese.

INTERPRETATION

The rising trends in children's and adolescents' BMI have plateaued in many high-income countries, albeit at high levels, but have accelerated in parts of Asia, with trends no longer correlated with those of adults.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, AstraZeneca Young Health Programme.

National, regional, and global trends in body-mass index since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 960 country-years and 9·1 million participants

BACKGROUND

Excess bodyweight is a major public health concern. However, few worldwide comparative analyses of long-term trends of body-mass index (BMI) have been done, and none have used recent national health examination surveys. We estimated worldwide trends in population mean BMI.

METHODS

We estimated trends and their uncertainties of mean BMI for adults 20 years and older in 199 countries and territories. We obtained data from published and unpublished health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (960 country-years and 9·1 million participants). For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean BMI by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally representative.

FINDINGS

Between 1980 and 2008, mean BMI worldwide increased by 0·4 kg/m(2) per decade (95% uncertainty interval 0·2-0·6, posterior probability of being a true increase >0·999) for men and 0·5 kg/m(2) per decade (0·3-0·7, posterior probability >0·999) for women. National BMI change for women ranged from non-significant decreases in 19 countries to increases of more than 2·0 kg/m(2) per decade (posterior probabilities >0·99) in nine countries in Oceania. Male BMI increased in all but eight countries, by more than 2 kg/m(2) per decade in Nauru and Cook Islands (posterior probabilities >0·999). Male and female BMIs in 2008 were highest in some Oceania countries, reaching 33·9 kg/m(2) (32·8-35·0) for men and 35·0 kg/m(2) (33·6-36·3) for women in Nauru. Female BMI was lowest in Bangladesh (20·5 kg/m(2), 19·8-21·3) and male BMI in Democratic Republic of the Congo 19·9 kg/m(2) (18·2-21·5), with BMI less than 21·5 kg/m(2) for both sexes in a few countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and east, south, and southeast Asia. The USA had the highest BMI of high-income countries. In 2008, an estimated 1·46 billion adults (1·41-1·51 billion) worldwide had BMI of 25 kg/m(2) or greater, of these 205 million men (193-217 million) and 297 million women (280-315 million) were obese.

INTERPRETATION

Globally, mean BMI has increased since 1980. The trends since 1980, and mean population BMI in 2008, varied substantially between nations. Interventions and policies that can curb or reverse the increase, and mitigate the health effects of high BMI by targeting its metabolic mediators, are needed in most countries.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.

National, regional, and global trends in fasting plasma glucose and diabetes prevalence since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 370 country-years and 2·7 million participants

BACKGROUND

Data for trends in glycaemia and diabetes prevalence are needed to understand the effects of diet and lifestyle within populations, assess the performance of interventions, and plan health services. No consistent and comparable global analysis of trends has been done. We estimated trends and their uncertainties in mean fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and diabetes prevalence for adults aged 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories.

METHODS

We obtained data from health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (370 country-years and 2·7 million participants). We converted systematically between different glycaemic metrics. For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean FPG and its uncertainty by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally, subnationally, or community representative.

FINDINGS

In 2008, global age-standardised mean FPG was 5·50 mmol/L (95% uncertainty interval 5·37-5·63) for men and 5·42 mmol/L (5·29-5·54) for women, having risen by 0·07 mmol/L and 0·09 mmol/L per decade, respectively. Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence was 9·8% (8·6-11·2) in men and 9·2% (8·0-10·5) in women in 2008, up from 8·3% (6·5-10·4) and 7·5% (5·8-9·6) in 1980. The number of people with diabetes increased from 153 (127-182) million in 1980, to 347 (314-382) million in 2008. We recorded almost no change in mean FPG in east and southeast Asia and central and eastern Europe. Oceania had the largest rise, and the highest mean FPG (6·09 mmol/L, 5·73-6·49 for men; 6·08 mmol/L, 5·72-6·46 for women) and diabetes prevalence (15·5%, 11·6-20·1 for men; and 15·9%, 12·1-20·5 for women) in 2008. Mean FPG and diabetes prevalence in 2008 were also high in south Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and central Asia, north Africa, and the Middle East. Mean FPG in 2008 was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, east and southeast Asia, and high-income Asia-Pacific. In high-income subregions, western Europe had the smallest rise, 0·07 mmol/L per decade for men and 0·03 mmol/L per decade for women; North America had the largest rise, 0·18 mmol/L per decade for men and 0·14 mmol/L per decade for women.

INTERPRETATION

Glycaemia and diabetes are rising globally, driven both by population growth and ageing and by increasing age-specific prevalences. Effective preventive interventions are needed, and health systems should prepare to detect and manage diabetes and its sequelae.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.

Worldwide trends in hypertension prevalence and progress in treatment and control from 1990 to 2019: a pooled analysis of 1201 population-representative studies with 104 million participants

BACKGROUND

Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30-79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age.

FINDINGS

The number of people aged 30-79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306-359) million women and 317 (292-344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584-668) million women and 652 (604-698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55-62) of women and 49% (46-52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43-51) of women and 38% (35-41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20-27) for women and 18% (16-21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including Costa Rica, Taiwan, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, and Iran.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in the detection, treatment, and control of hypertension have varied substantially across countries, with some middle-income countries now outperforming most high-income nations. The dual approach of reducing hypertension prevalence through primary prevention and enhancing its treatment and control is achievable not only in high-income countries but also in low-income and middle-income settings.

FUNDING

WHO.

National, regional, and global trends in systolic blood pressure since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 786 country-years and 5·4 million participants

BACKGROUND

Data for trends in blood pressure are needed to understand the effects of its dietary, lifestyle, and pharmacological determinants; set intervention priorities; and evaluate national programmes. However, few worldwide analyses of trends in blood pressure have been done. We estimated worldwide trends in population mean systolic blood pressure (SBP).

METHODS

We estimated trends and their uncertainties in mean SBP for adults 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories. We obtained data from published and unpublished health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (786 country-years and 5·4 million participants). For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean SBP by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally representative.

FINDINGS

In 2008, age-standardised mean SBP worldwide was 128·1 mm Hg (95% uncertainty interval 126·7-129·4) in men and 124·4 mm Hg (123·0-125·9) in women. Globally, between 1980 and 2008, SBP decreased by 0·8 mm Hg per decade (-0·4 to 2·2, posterior probability of being a true decline=0·90) in men and 1·0 mm Hg per decade (-0·3 to 2·3, posterior probability=0·93) in women. Female SBP decreased by 3·5 mm Hg or more per decade in western Europe and Australasia (posterior probabilities ≥0·999). Male SBP fell most in high-income North America, by 2·8 mm Hg per decade (1·3-4·5, posterior probability >0·999), followed by Australasia and western Europe where it decreased by more than 2·0 mm Hg per decade (posterior probabilities >0·98). SBP rose in Oceania, east Africa, and south and southeast Asia for both sexes, and in west Africa for women, with the increases ranging 0·8-1·6 mm Hg per decade in men (posterior probabilities 0·72-0·91) and 1·0-2·7 mm Hg per decade for women (posterior probabilities 0·75-0·98). Female SBP was highest in some east and west African countries, with means of 135 mm Hg or greater. Male SBP was highest in Baltic and east and west African countries, where mean SBP reached 138 mm Hg or more. Men and women in western Europe had the highest SBP in high-income regions.

INTERPRETATION

On average, global population SBP decreased slightly since 1980, but trends varied significantly across regions and countries. SBP is currently highest in low-income and middle-income countries. Effective population-based and personal interventions should be targeted towards low-income and middle-income countries.

FUNDING

Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.

Inequalities in non-communicable diseases and effective responses

In most countries, people who have a low socioeconomic status and those who live in poor or marginalised communities have a higher risk of dying from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) than do more advantaged groups and communities. Smoking rates, blood pressure, and several other NCD risk factors are often higher in groups with low socioeconomic status than in those with high socioeconomic status; the social gradient also depends on the country's stage of economic development, cultural factors, and social and health policies. Social inequalities in risk factors account for more than half of inequalities in major NCDs, especially for cardiovascular diseases and lung cancer. People in low-income countries and those with low socioeconomic status also have worse access to health care for timely diagnosis and treatment of NCDs than do those in high-income countries or those with higher socioeconomic status. Reduction of NCDs in disadvantaged groups is necessary to achieve substantial decreases in the total NCD burden, making them mutually reinforcing priorities. Effective actions to reduce NCD inequalities include equitable early childhood development programmes and education; removal of barriers to secure employment in disadvantaged groups; comprehensive strategies for tobacco and alcohol control and for dietary salt reduction that target low socioeconomic status groups; universal, financially and physically accessible, high-quality primary care for delivery of preventive interventions and for early detection and treatment of NCDs; and universal insurance and other mechanisms to remove financial barriers to health care.

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities1,2. This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity3-6. Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.

National, regional, and global trends in serum total cholesterol since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 321 country-years and 3·0 million participants

BACKGROUND

Data for trends in serum cholesterol are needed to understand the effects of its dietary, lifestyle, and pharmacological determinants; set intervention priorities; and evaluate national programmes. Previous analyses of trends in serum cholesterol were limited to a few countries, with no consistent and comparable global analysis. We estimated worldwide trends in population mean serum total cholesterol.

METHODS

We estimated trends and their uncertainties in mean serum total cholesterol for adults 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories. We obtained data from published and unpublished health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (321 country-years and 3·0 million participants). For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean total cholesterol by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally representative.

FINDINGS

In 2008, age-standardised mean total cholesterol worldwide was 4·64 mmol/L (95% uncertainty interval 4·51-4·76) for men and 4·76 mmol/L (4·62-4·91) for women. Globally, mean total cholesterol changed little between 1980 and 2008, falling by less than 0·1 mmol/L per decade in men and women. Total cholesterol fell in the high-income region consisting of Australasia, North America, and western Europe, and in central and eastern Europe; the regional declines were about 0·2 mmol/L per decade for both sexes, with posterior probabilities of these being true declines 0·99 or greater. Mean total cholesterol increased in east and southeast Asia and Pacific by 0·08 mmol/L per decade (-0·06 to 0·22, posterior probability=0·86) in men and 0·09 mmol/L per decade (-0·07 to 0·26, posterior probability=0·86) in women. Despite converging trends, serum total cholesterol in 2008 was highest in the high-income region consisting of Australasia, North America, and western Europe; the regional mean was 5·24 mmol/L (5·08-5·39) for men and 5·23 mmol/L (5·03-5·43) for women. It was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa at 4·08 mmol/L (3·82-4·34) for men and 4·27 mmol/L (3·99-4·56) for women.

INTERPRETATION

Nutritional policies and pharmacological interventions should be used to accelerate improvements in total cholesterol in regions with decline and to curb or prevent the rise in Asian populations and elsewhere. Population-based surveillance of cholesterol needs to be improved in low-income and middle-income countries.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

BACKGROUND

Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5-19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school-aged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median).

FINDINGS

From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness.

INTERPRETATION

The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesity.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation (Research England), UK Research and Innovation (Innovate UK), and European Union.

Physical activity and sedentary behavior among schoolchildren: a 34-country comparison

OBJECTIVE

To describe and compare levels of physical activity and sedentary behavior in schoolchildren from 34 countries across 5 WHO Regions.

STUDY DESIGN

The analysis included 72,845 schoolchildren from 34 countries that participated in the Global School-based Student Health Survey (GSHS) and conducted data collection between 2003 and 2007. The questionnaire included questions on overall physical activity, walking, or biking to school, and on time spent sitting.

RESULTS

Very few students engaged in sufficient physical activity. Across all countries, 23.8% of boys and 15.4% of girls met recommendations, with the lowest prevalence in Philippines and Zambia (both 8.8%) and the highest in India (37.5%). The prevalence of walking or riding a bicycle to school ranged from 18.6% in United Arab Emirates to 84.8% in China. In more than half of the countries, more than one third of the students spent 3 or more hours per day on sedentary activities, excluding the hours spent sitting at school and doing homework.

CONCLUSIONS

The great majority of students did not meet physical activity recommendations. Additionally, levels of sedentariness were high. These findings require immediate action, and efforts should be made worldwide to increase levels of physical activity among schoolchildren.

Acquired immunodeficiency in an infant: possible transmission by means of blood products

An infant who received multiple transfusions during the first few days of life for rhesus disease became ill with recurrent infections when 6 months old. Hepatitis, thrush, Candida dermatitis, otitis media, and disseminated Mycobacterium avium intracellulare infection occurred by 14 months of age. Immunological studies showed raised immunoglobulin levels, decreased mononuclear-cell responses to allogeneic cells and mitogen, and a decreased helper/suppressor cell ratio. It was determined that one of the blood donors, who was well at the time of blood donation, had died 17 months after with multiple opportunistic infections and acquired immunodeficiency. The clinical and laboratory findings in our patient suggest that he acquired a transmissible infectious agent from a blood transfusion, resulting in acquired immunodeficiency, and that this agent was not cytomegalovirus, Epstein-Barr virus, or hepatitis B virus.

Impact of donor type on outcome of bone marrow transplantation for Wiskott-Aldrich syndrome: collaborative study of the International Bone Marrow Transplant Registry and the National Marrow Donor Program

Human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-identical sibling bone marrow transplantation is an effective treatment for Wiskott-Aldrich syndrome. However, most children with this disease lack such donors and many patients receive transplants from alternative donors. This study compared outcomes of HLA-identical sibling, other related donor, and unrelated donor transplantation for Wiskott-Aldrich syndrome. The outcome of 170 transplantations for Wiskott-Aldrich syndrome, from 1968 to 1996, reported to the International Bone Marrow Transplant Registry and/or National Marrow Donor Program were assessed. Fifty-five were from HLA-identical sibling donors, 48 from other relatives, and 67 from unrelated donors. Multivariate proportional hazards regression was used to compare outcome by donor type and identify other prognostic factors. Most transplant recipients were younger than 5 years (79%), had a pretransplantation performance score greater than or equal to 90% (63%), received pretransplantation preparative regimens without radiation (82%), and had non-T-cell-depleted grafts (77%). Eighty percent received their transplant after 1986. The 5-year probability of survival (95% confidence interval) for all subjects was 70% (63%-77%). Probabilities differed by donor type: 87% (74%-93%) with HLA-identical sibling donors, 52% (37%-65%) with other related donors, and 71% (58%-80%) with unrelated donors (P =.0006). Multivariate analysis indicated significantly lower survival using related donors other than HLA-identical siblings (P =.0004) or unrelated donors in boys older than 5 years (P =.0001), compared to HLA-identical sibling transplants. Boys receiving an unrelated donor transplant before age 5 had survivals similar to those receiving HLA-identical sibling transplants. The best transplantation outcomes in Wiskott-Aldrich syndrome are achieved with HLA-identical sibling donors. Equivalent survivals are possible with unrelated donors in young children.

The global cardiovascular risk transition: associations of four metabolic risk factors with national income, urbanization, and Western diet in 1980 and 2008

BACKGROUND

It is commonly assumed that cardiovascular disease risk factors are associated with affluence and Westernization. We investigated the associations of body mass index (BMI), fasting plasma glucose, systolic blood pressure, and serum total cholesterol with national income, Western diet, and, for BMI, urbanization in 1980 and 2008.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Country-level risk factor estimates for 199 countries between 1980 and 2008 were from a previous systematic analysis of population-based data. We analyzed the associations between risk factors and per capita national income, a measure of Western diet, and, for BMI, the percentage of the population living in urban areas. In 1980, there was a positive association between national income and population mean BMI, systolic blood pressure, and total cholesterol. By 2008, the slope of the association between national income and systolic blood pressure became negative for women and zero for men. Total cholesterol was associated with national income and Western diet in both 1980 and 2008. In 1980, BMI rose with national income and then flattened at ≈Int$7000; by 2008, the relationship resembled an inverted U for women, peaking at middle-income levels. BMI had a positive relationship with the percentage of urban population in both 1980 and 2008. Fasting plasma glucose had weaker associations with these country macro characteristics, but it was positively associated with BMI.

CONCLUSIONS

The changing associations of metabolic risk factors with macroeconomic variables indicate that there will be a global pandemic of hyperglycemia and diabetes mellitus, together with high blood pressure in low-income countries, unless effective lifestyle and pharmacological interventions are implemented.

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

BACKGROUND

Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents.

METHODS

For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5-19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence.

FINDINGS

We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9-10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes-gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both-occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls.

INTERPRETATION

The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, AstraZeneca Young Health Programme, EU.

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries1,2. However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health4,5. However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol-which is a marker of cardiovascular risk-changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million-4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.

Multiple biotin-dependent carboxylase deficiencies associated with defects in T-cell and B-cell immunity

Three siblings presented in early childhood with central-nervous-system (CNS) dysfunction, candida dermatitis, keratoconjunctivitis, and alopecia. Two were studied immunologically and had absent delayed-hypersensitivity skin-test responses and absent in-vitro lymphocyte responses to candida antigen. One of them had selective IgA deficiency and no antibody response to pneumococcal polysaccharide immunisation, and the other had a subnormal percentage of T lymphocytes in peripheral blood. The first two siblings died with progressive CNS deterioration and overwhelming infection. The third child, who presented with a periorificial candida dermatitis, alopecia, keratoconjunctivitis, and intermittent ataxia at eighteen months of age, had intermittent lactic acidosis and raised excretion of beta-hydroxyproprionate, methylcitrate, beta-methylcrotonylglycine, and beta-hydroxyisovalerate in urine. After four days of oral biotin, 10 mg/per day, the metabolites in her urine were significantly reduced, suggesting a biotin-responsive multiple carboxylase deficiency. These findings, taken with previous reports of immune defects in patients with disorders of branched-chain aminoacid catabolism, suggest a new biochemical basis for primary immunodeficiency disease.

Physical activity in 22 African countries: results from the World Health Organization STEPwise approach to chronic disease risk factor surveillance

BACKGROUND

Baseline physical activity data are needed to effectively plan programs and policies to prevent noncommunicable diseases, but for many African countries these data are lacking.

PURPOSE

To describe and compare levels and patterns of physical activity among adults across 22 African countries.

METHODS

Data from 57,038 individuals from 22 countries (11 national and 11 subnational samples) that participated in the STEPwise approach to chronic disease risk factor surveillance (2003-2009) were analyzed in 2010. The validated Global Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPAQ) was used to assess days and duration of physical activity at work, for transport, and during leisure time in a typical week.

RESULTS

Overall, 83.8% of men and 75.7% of women met WHO physical activity recommendations (at least 150 minutes of moderate activity per week or equivalent). Country prevalence ranged from 46.8% (Mali) to 96.0% (Mozambique). Physical activity, both at work and for transport, including walking, had large contributions to overall physical activity, while physical activity during leisure time was rare in the analyzed countries.

CONCLUSIONS

Physical activity levels varied greatly across African countries and population subgroups. Leisure time activity was consistently low. These data will be useful to inform policymakers and to guide interventions to promote physical activity.

Target dose adjustment of busulfan in pediatric patients undergoing bone marrow transplantation

Published data suggest that the average concentration of busulfan at steady state (Bu Css) is critical for successful engraftment in children receiving busulfan as a conditioning agent for bone marrow transplantation (BMT). We previously found in children that a Bu Css <600 ng/ml correlated with autologous recovery/mixed chimerism; there was no correlation between Bu Css and regimen-related toxicity (RRT). In a cohort continuous with the previous trial, we prospectively evaluated targeted busulfan concentrations in 32 pediatric patients (age 0.6-18.5 years) with AML (n = 6), CML (n = 6) and non-malignant disorders (n = 20) receiving HLA-closely matched donor grafts. In this trial, individual busulfan pharmacokinetics were performed prior to admission. Busulfan doses were then adjusted to achieve a Bu Css target range of 600-900 ng/ml +/- 10% depending on donor source and disease. A repeat study was done following dose 1 of the conditioning regimen. Thirty of thirty-two (94%) patients achieved target concentrations. Total busulfan doses ranged from 10.9 to 29 mg/kg. Thirty of thirty-two patients (94%) have durably engrafted. Grade 3/4 RRT occurred in seven patients (21%). Targeting Bu Css ranges of 600-900 ng/ml significantly improved our rate of successful engraftment from 74% to 94% (P = 0.043). These results indicate that targeted busulfan dosing optimizes allogeneic engraftment in children.

An evaluation of engraftment, toxicity and busulfan concentration in children receiving bone marrow transplantation for leukemia or genetic disease

Autologous recovery is a major problem with busulfan as a marrow ablative agent in conditioning children for allogeneic BMT. Data suggest the average concentration of busulfan at steady state (Bu Css) is critical for successful engraftment. We prospectively evaluated busulfan pharmacokinetics in 31 children (age 0.6-18 years) with AML (n = 9), and non-malignant diseases (n = 22) receiving HLA-closely matched (sibling, parent, unrelated) donor grafts. Blood samples were obtained following dose 1 and 13 of a standard 16 dose, 4-day regimen. The busulfan dose varied from 14 to 20 mg/kg. Patients received cyclophosphamide 200-240 mg/kg; 22/31 received 80-90 mg/kg of ATG. Eight patients failed to engraft (26%). ATG did not appear to influence engraftment (P = 0.38). Bu Css levels <600 ng/ml correlated with autologous recovery/mixed chimerism (P = 0.018). There were no graft failures in patients with a Bu Css >600 ng/ml. A correlation between Bu Css levels and regimen-related toxicity (RRT) was not identified for grade 2 or higher toxicities, only 1/31 had a Bu Css >900 ng/ml. Our data support the use of pharmacokinetic monitoring of busulfan.

Toxicities of total-body irradiation for pediatric bone marrow transplantation

PURPOSE

To determine the acute and late effects, including cognitive function, of total body irradiation (TBI) and chemotherapy for bone transplant (BMT) in children with immunodeficiency or hematologic disorders.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

At UCSF, 15 children with immunodeficiency disorders and 58 children with leukemia received chemoradiotherapy between July 1982 and November 1993 and were evaluated for toxicity. Patients with severe combined immunodeficiency disorder (SCID) received 7 Gy TBI while leukemia patients received 12 Gy TBI.

RESULTS

Eight immunodeficient patients (53%) are alive at 4 months to 11 years posttransplant. Acute toxicity was limited and treatment well tolerated. Most patients developed mild nausea and vomiting, skin rash, or erythema. Transient fever/chills, oral mucositis, and alopecia were noted in approximately 50% of patients. Seventy-three percent of all patients demonstrated acute liver dysfunction, but only four (27%) developed veno-occlusive disease. All children had decreased growth velocity but normal growth hormone levels. Other endocrinologic evaluations including adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH), cortisol, and thyroid hormones were normal. Only one evaluable girl had delayed puberty with late onset of secondary sexual characteristics. Neuropsychological testing demonstrated an intelligence quotient (IQ) reduction between the baseline and 1 year post-BMT, with some recovery at 3 years. Only one patient developed a clinically significant cataract. Thirteen percent of patients had chronic interstitial lung disease. Four children developed exostosis. Only 1 of the 15 children developed a second malignancy (acute myelogenous leukemia) at age 5, 51 months posttransplant for SCID. For patients with leukemia, similar toxicities were observed. Twenty-nine percent disease-free survival was noted with a mean follow-up of 4.7 years. Twenty-two percent had chronic interstitial lung disease and two patients were diagnosed with cataracts. Graft-vs.-host-disease (GVHD), pubertal development arrest, and delayed puberty were seen. One child developed papillary thyroid carcinoma, 49 months post-BMT. Similar neuropsychological testing decrements were also observed.

CONCLUSION

Our experience suggests that intensive chemoradiotherapy, even at a young age, does not cause severe, acute, or late toxicities but does result in a small IQ decrement and the risk of secondary malignancy in children with long-term follow-up.

Comparison of high-dose and low-dose intravenous immunoglobulin therapy in patients with primary immunodeficiency diseases

To assess safety and efficacy of high-dose intravenous immunoglobulin therapy in patients with primary immunodeficiency syndromes we treated a group of 19 patients with a monthly dose of 400 mg/kg of reduced and alkylated, maltose-containing immunoglobulin (Gamimune, Cutter Biological, Berkeley, California) and compared their responses with a group of 16 patients receiving 100 mg/kg per month intravenously. Side effects observed were mild to moderately severe and similar in both groups. In one adult patient receiving the high dose a severe enough reaction developed during the first infusion to exclude her from the study. Serum IgG levels of patients receiving high-dose immunoglobulin showed a stepwise increase in both trough and peak values until a new plateau was reached after four to six infusions. None of the patients receiving the low dose showed such a stepwise increase. On average, serum IgG levels rose by approximately 250 mg/dl for each 100 mg/kg immunoglobulin infused. The mean catabolic rate of the infused IgG was estimated to be 26 days in patients receiving high-dose immunoglobulin infusions. We demonstrated that 400 mg/kg immunoglobulin given intravenously every four weeks to patients with immunodeficiency results in a substantial increase in serum IgG during the postinfusion period, suggesting persistence of specific antibody throughout the interval between infusions.

A new gene involved in DNA double-strand break repair and V(D)J recombination is located on human chromosome 10p

V(D)J recombination, accountable for the diversity of T cell receptor- and immunoglobulin-encoding genes, is initiated by a lymphoid-specific DNA double-strand break. The general DNA repair machinery is responsible for the resolution of this break. Any defect in one of the known components of the DNA repair/V(D)J recombination machinery (Ku70, Ku80, DNA-PKcs, XRCC4 and DNA ligase IV) leads to abortion of the V(D)J rearrangement process, early block in both T and B cell maturation, and ultimately to severe combined immune deficiency (SCID) in several animal models. A human SCID condition is also characterized by an absence of mature T and B lymphocytes, and is associated with an increase in sensitivity to DNA-damaging agents (RS-SCID). None of the above-mentioned genes are defective in these patients, arguing for the likelihood of the existence of yet another unknown component of the V(D)J recombination/DNA repair apparatus. Athabascan-speaking (SCIDA) Navajo and Apache Native Americans have a very high incidence of T(-)B(-)SCID. The SCIDA locus is highly linked with markers on chromosome 10p, although the exact molecular defect has not been recognized in these patients. We show here that cells with the SCIDA defect are impaired in the DNA repair phase of V(D)J recombination similarly to RS-SCID, precisely an absence of V(D)J coding joint formation. Moreover, genotyping analysis in several RS-SCID families corroborates a linkage of the RS-SCID locus to the SCIDA region on chromosome 10p. These results demonstrate the presence of a new essential DNA repair/V(D)J recombination gene in this region, the mutation of which causes RS-SCID in humans.

Cognitive and adaptive behavior 1 and 3 years following bone marrow transplantation

Children receiving a bone marrow transplant (BMT) are at risk for neuropsychological late effects because of potentially neurotoxic chemotherapy and total body irradiation. The goal of this study was to prospectively and longitudinally assess the intellectual and adaptive functioning of children receiving a BMT. This study examined 67 children whose development was evaluated at baseline prior to BMT and at 1 year follow-up. Mean age at BMT was 45 months. Repeated-measures ANOVA indicated a significant decline in IQ between baseline and the 1 year follow-up evaluation. Multivariate and exploratory univariate analyses examined the potential influence of diagnosis, treatment regimen, cranial radiation dose, age at time of transplant, and sex of child but none of these independent variables predicted outcome. Twenty-six children (mean age at BMT of 28.4 months) were also given developmental evaluations 3 years post-BMT. Although IQ at the 1 year follow-up was significantly lower than baseline, no further changes were evident at the 3 year follow-up evaluation. Scores on the Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales also dropped significantly between baseline and the 1 year follow-up, but did not change between the 1 year and 3 year evaluations.

Dexamethasone alters arachidonate release from human epithelial cells by induction of p11 protein synthesis and inhibition of phospholipase A2 activity

The effect of the glucocorticosteroid, dexamethasone, on arachidonic acid (AA) release and on protein levels of p11 and cytosolic phospholipase A2 (cPLA2) was studied in two epithelial cell lines, HeLa cells and BEAS-2B cells. Dexamethasone treatment of HeLa cells and BEAS-2B cells increased cellular p11 protein and mRNA levels in a time- and dose-dependent manner. It had little effect on levels of cPLA2 protein. In order to determine if increased p11 protein expression resulted in increased interaction between p11 and cPLA2, anti-cPLA2 antibodies were used to immunoprecipitate p11.cPLA2 complexes and Western blots of the immunoprecipitate were used to detect p11. In cells treated with dexamethasone, more p11 was detected in the anti-cPLA2 immunoprecipitate compared with control cells. Dexamethasone treatment of HeLa cells prelabeled with [3H]AA decreased the release of [3H]AA under basal conditions and after stimulation with the calcium ionophore A23187 (10(-6) M). In order to determine if altering the p11 protein levels in HeLa cells independent of glucocorticosteroid treatment could also produce an effect on [3H]AA release, cells were stably transfected with plasmids expressing either p11 antisense mRNA or p11 mRNA. Cloned HeLa cells expressing p11 antisense mRNA exhibited less cellular p11 protein compared with control cells and greater [3H]AA release compared with cells transfected with a control vector. Cloned HeLa cells stably transfected with a p11 expression vector exhibited increased p11 cellular protein and diminished [3H]AA release under basal conditions and in response to A23187. Therefore, dexamethasone alteration of epithelial cell AA release may be due in part to induction of p11 protein expression.

Psychosocial nursing therapy following sudden cardiac arrest: impact on two-year survival

BACKGROUND

Although psychosocial therapy has been shown to reduce mortality after myocardial infarction, it is unknown whether the benefits of psychosocial therapy on mortality reduction extend to out-of-hospital sudden cardiac arrest, a main cause of cardiovascular mortality.

OBJECTIVE

Describe efficacy of psychosocial therapy on two-year cardiovascular mortality in sudden cardiac arrest survivors.

METHOD

Survivors of out-of-hospital ventricular fibrillation or asystole (N = 129), documented by electrocardiograms from registries of a citywide Medic One unit and two countywide emergency units, were randomized into a two group, experimental, longitudinal design. The intervention consisted of 11 individual sessions, implementing three components: physiologic relaxation with biofeedback training focused on altering autonomic tone; cognitive behavioral therapy aimed at self-management and coping strategies for depression, anxiety, and anger; and cardiovascular health education. The primary outcome measure was cardiovascular mortality.

RESULTS

Risk of cardiovascular death was significantly reduced 86% by psychosocial therapy, p = .03. Six of the seven cardiovascular deaths in the control group were caused by ventricular arrhythmias. The cardiovascular death in the therapy group was due to stroke. Controlling for depression, previous myocardial infarction, low ejection fraction, decreased heart rate variability, and ventricular ectopic beats had little impact on estimated treatment effect. The risk of all-cause mortality was reduced by 62% in the therapy group, p = .13. There were a total of three deaths in the therapy group and eight deaths in the control group.

CONCLUSIONS

Psychosocial therapy significantly reduced the risk of cardiovascular death in sudden cardiac arrest survivors.