Increasing densities of Pacific crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster cf. solaris) at Lizard Island, northern Great Barrier Reef, resolved using a novel survey method

Recurrent population irruptions of Pacific crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS, Acanthaster cf. solaris) are among the foremost causes of coral mortality on Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Early intervention during the initiation of new population irruptions represents the best opportunity to effectively manage this threat. However, current survey methods are not sufficiently sensitive to detect changes in CoTS densities during the early onset of population irruptions. Using scooter-assisted large area diver-based (SALAD) surveys, this study revealed increasing densities of CoTS at Lizard Island from 2019 to 2022. Inferred densities of adult CoTS (which account for distinct sets of observed feeding scars where starfish were not detected) increased from 4.90 ha-1 (± 0.85 SE) in 2019 to 17.71 ha-1 (± 2.3 SE) in 2022. A wide range of size classes were recorded suggesting that recruitment over several years is contributing to increasing densities. Importantly, the sustained density increases reported here denote that renewed CoTS population irruptions may soon become fully established at Lizard Island and more broadly in the northern GBR, especially without early intervention through effective population management.

Induction of larval settlement in crown-of-thorns starfish is not mediated by conspecific cues

Population irruptions of crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS; Acanthaster spp.) remain a major cause of coral reef degradation throughout the Pacific and Indian Oceans and are inherently modulated by larval settlement and recruitment success. Gregarious larval settlement, as exhibited by many other ecologically important marine invertebrates, can catalyse population growth and replenishment. However, whether conspecific cues induce or influence the settlement of COTS larvae remains a critical information gap. This experimental study examined the induction of COTS settlement in response to a range of conspecific cues associated with early- and late-stage herbivorous juveniles, corallivorous juveniles and adults. Competent COTS larvae were generally not induced to settle by the presence of conspecifics or cues associated with conspecifics, while the settlement success of COTS in the presence of coralline algae was not inhibited or enhanced by adding conspecific conditioned seawater. Rather than being reinforced by gregarious settlement, the recruitment of COTS populations appears dependent on associative settlement cues (i.e., coralline algae and/or associated microbial communities) signalling suitable benthic habitat.

Impacts of ocean warming on echinoderms: A meta-analysis

Rising ocean temperatures are threatening marine species and populations worldwide, and ectothermic taxa are particularly vulnerable. Echinoderms are an ecologically important phylum of marine ectotherms and shifts in their population dynamics can have profound impacts on the marine environment. The effects of warming on echinoderms are highly variable across controlled laboratory-based studies. Accordingly, synthesis of these studies will facilitate the better understanding of broad patterns in responses of echinoderms to ocean warming. Herein, a meta-analysis incorporating the results of 85 studies (710 individual responses) is presented, exploring the effects of warming on various performance predictors. The mean responses of echinoderms to all magnitudes of warming were compared across multiple biological responses, ontogenetic life stages, taxonomic classes, and regions, facilitated by multivariate linear mixed effects models. Further models were conducted, which only incorporated responses to warming greater than the projected end-of-century mean annual temperatures at the collection sites. This meta-analysis provides evidence that ocean warming will generally accelerate metabolic rate (+32%) and reduce survival (-35%) in echinoderms, and echinoderms from subtropical (-9%) and tropical (-8%) regions will be the most vulnerable. The relatively high vulnerability of echinoderm larvae to warming (-20%) indicates that this life stage may be a significant developmental bottleneck in the near-future, likely reducing successful recruitment into populations. Furthermore, asteroids appear to be the class of echinoderms that are most negatively affected by elevated temperature (-30%). When considering only responses to magnitudes of warming representative of end-of-century climate change projections, the negative impacts on asteroids, tropical species and juveniles were exacerbated (-51%, -34% and -40% respectively). The results of these analyses enable better predictions of how keystone and invasive echinoderm species may perform in a warmer ocean, and the possible consequences for populations, communities and ecosystems.

Macroalgae exhibit diverse responses to human disturbances on coral reefs

Scientists and managers rely on indicator taxa such as coral and macroalgal cover to evaluate the effects of human disturbance on coral reefs, often assuming a universally positive relationship between local human disturbance and macroalgae. Despite evidence that macroalgae respond to local stressors in diverse ways, there have been few efforts to evaluate relationships between specific macroalgae taxa and local human-driven disturbance. Using genus-level monitoring data from 1205 sites in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, we assess whether macroalgae percent cover correlates with local human disturbance while accounting for factors that could obscure or confound relationships. Assessing macroalgae at genus level revealed that no genera were positively correlated with all human disturbance metrics. Instead, we found relationships between the division or genera of algae and specific human disturbances that were not detectable when pooling taxa into a single functional category, which is common to many analyses. The convention to use percent cover of macroalgae as an indication of local human disturbance therefore likely obscures signatures of local anthropogenic threats to reefs. Our limited understanding of relationships between human disturbance, macroalgae taxa, and their responses to human disturbances impedes the ability to diagnose and respond appropriately to these threats.

Differential bleaching susceptibility among coral taxa and colony sizes, relative to bleaching severity across Australia's Great Barrier Reef and Coral Sea Marine Parks

Climate-induced coral bleaching represents the foremost threat to coral assemblages globally, however bleaching susceptibility varies among and within coral taxa. We compared bleaching susceptibility among 10 coral morpho-taxa and two colony size classes relative to reef-scale bleaching severity at 33 reefs across the Great Barrier Reef and Coral Sea Marine Parks in February-March 2020. Colony size and bleaching severity caused the hierarchy of bleaching susceptibility among taxa to change considerably. Notably, massive Porites shifted from being among the least likely taxa to exhibit bleaching, to among the most susceptible as overall bleaching severity increased. Juvenile corals (≤5 cm diameter) were generally more resistant to bleaching, except for Montipora and Pocillopora colonies, which were more likely to bleach than adults (>5 cm). These findings suggest that colony size and reef-scale bleaching severity are important determinants of bleaching susceptibility among taxa and provide insights into possible shifts in the structure of coral assemblages caused by bleaching events.

Using size-weight relationships to estimate biomass of heavily targeted aquarium corals by Australia's coral harvest fisheries

Coral reefs are highly threatened environs subject to ongoing unprecedented degradation as a result of anthropogenic activities. Given the existential threat to coral reef ecosystems, extractive industries that make use of coral reef resources, are facing significant public and political pressure to quantify and justify their environmental impact. In Australia, hundreds of thousands of live scleractinian (hard) corals are harvested annually directly from the wild to supply the growing international marine aquarium trade. Many of the most popular and high value aquarium corals are believed to be slow growing, which would make them particularly vulnerable to over-fishing. Corals present a number of unique challenges for fisheries management, not least of which, is the marked variation in the size of corals, which may be harvested in whole or in part. This issue is further compounded because harvest limits are typically weight-based, but there is very limited information on the standing biomass of corals in targeted stocks. Herein, we describe size-weight relationships for some of Australia's most heavily targeted coral species (Catalaphyllia jardinei, Duncanopsammia axifuga, Euphyllia glabrescens, Homophyllia cf. australis, Micromussa lordhowensis, Trachyphyllia geoffroyi), which allows estimation of standing biomass from transect surveys. This work represents an important first step in the development of ecologically sound management strategies by bridging the gap between catch reporting and stock assessments.

Research priorities for the sustainability of coral-rich western Pacific seascapes

Nearly a billion people depend on tropical seascapes. The need to ensure sustainable use of these vital areas is recognised, as one of 17 policy commitments made by world leaders, in Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14 ('Life below Water') of the United Nations. SDG 14 seeks to secure marine sustainability by 2030. In a time of increasing social-ecological unpredictability and risk, scientists and policymakers working towards SDG 14 in the Asia-Pacific region need to know: (1) How are seascapes changing? (2) What can global society do about these changes? and (3) How can science and society together achieve sustainable seascape futures? Through a horizon scan, we identified nine emerging research priorities that clarify potential research contributions to marine sustainability in locations with high coral reef abundance. They include research on seascape geological and biological evolution and adaptation; elucidating drivers and mechanisms of change; understanding how seascape functions and services are produced, and how people depend on them; costs, benefits, and trade-offs to people in changing seascapes; improving seascape technologies and practices; learning to govern and manage seascapes for all; sustainable use, justice, and human well-being; bridging communities and epistemologies for innovative, equitable, and scale-crossing solutions; and informing resilient seascape futures through modelling and synthesis. Researchers can contribute to the sustainability of tropical seascapes by co-developing transdisciplinary understandings of people and ecosystems, emphasising the importance of equity and justice, and improving knowledge of key cross-scale and cross-level processes, feedbacks, and thresholds.

Settlement cue selectivity by larvae of the destructive crown-of-thorns starfish

Population irruptions of crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS) cause extensive degradation of coral reefs, threatening the structure and function of these important ecosystems. For population irruptions to initiate and spread, large numbers of planktonic larvae have to successfully transition into their benthic life-history stage (i.e. settlement), whereby larval behaviour and the presence of settlement cues may shape spatial patterns of recruitment and adult densities. Our results demonstrate that a wide range of coralline algae species induce COTS larvae to settle; however, the capacity to promote settlement success varied manyfold among algal species, ranging from greater than 90% in Melyvonnea cf. madagascariensis to less than 2% in Lithophyllum cf. kotschyanum and two Porolithon species at 24 h. Because many coralline algae species that promote high settlement success are prevalent in shallow reef habitats, our findings challenge the hypothesis that COTS larvae predominantly settle in deep water. Considering both larval behaviour and algal ecology, this study highlights the ecological significance of coralline algae communities in driving recruitment patterns of COTS. More specifically, the local abundance of highly inductive coralline algae (especially, Melyvonnea cf. madagascariensis) may explain some of the marked spatial heterogeneity of COTS populations and the incidence of population irruptions.

Effects of habitat fragmentation on the recruitment and early post-settlement survival of coral reef fishes

The combined effects of global climate change and local anthropogenic stressors are leading to increasing loss and fragmentation of habitats. On coral reefs, habitat loss has been shown to influence the abundance and composition of associated fish assemblages, yet few studies have considered how habitat fragmentation may influence reef fish populations and assemblages. Herein, we compared survival, growth and recruitment of reef fish among experimental patches composed of six similar sized colonies of finely branching Pocillopora spp. but with different degrees of fragmentation: coral colonies were clumped (unfragmented), divided into two groups (low fragmentation), three groups (moderate fragmentation) or six groups (high fragmentation). Thirty settlement-stage Pomacentrus amboinensis were tagged, released onto each of the experimental patches, and their survival monitored daily for 11 days. Abundance and species richness of all reef fishes that subsequently recruited to the patches were also recorded, and used to analyse recruitment and community composition. There were no detectable differences among fragmentation treatments in the abundance or composition of reef fish assemblages that recruited to the patches, however, fragmentation influenced the survivorship of P. amboinensis. Highest survival of P. amboinensis was recorded on the unfragmented patches (61%.11 days^-1) and highly fragmented habitat patches (54%.11 days^-1) and lowest survival on low and moderate fragmentation treatments (47% and 48%.11 days^-1, respectively). This suggests that there may be multiple competing processes that moderate mortality (e.g., predation) in unfragmented versus highly fragmented habitats, with moderate levels of habitat fragmentation having the greatest influence on the early post-settlement survival of corsal reef fish.

Developing an effective marine eDNA monitoring: eDNA detection at pre-outbreak densities of corallivorous seastar (Acanthaster cf. solaris)

Outbreaks of the corallivorous Crown-of-Thorns Seastar (CoTS) Acanthaster cf. solaris contribute significantly to coral reef loss. Control of outbreaks is hampered because standard monitoring techniques do not detect outbreaks at early (low density) stages, thus preventing early intervention. We previously demonstrated that eDNA monitoring can detect CoTS at intermediate densities. Here, we test whether detection probability can be improved by (i) targeted site selection or collection at specific times and (ii) moving from an average eDNA copy number approach (based on the limit of quantification) to a presence/absence approach (based on the limit of detection). Using a dataset collected over three years and multiple reef sites, we demonstrated that adding water residence age, sea surface level and temperature into generalized linear models explained low amounts of variance of eDNA copy numbers. Site specific CoTS density, by contrast, was a significant predictor for eDNA copy numbers. Bayesian multi-scale occupancy modelling of the presence/absence data demonstrated that the probability of sample capture (θ) on most reefs with intermediate or high CoTS densities was >0.8. Thus, confirming CoTS presence on these reefs would only require 2-3 samples. Sample capture decreased with decreasing CoTS density. Collecting ten filters was sufficient to reliably (based on the lower 95 % Credibility Interval) detect CoTS below nominal outbreak levels (3 Ind. ha^-1). Copy number-based estimates may be more relevant to quantify CoTS at higher densities. Although water residence age did contribute little to our models, sites with higher residence times may serve as sentinel sites accumulating eDNA. The approach based on presence or absence of eDNA facilitates eDNA monitoring to detect CoTS densities below outbreak thresholds and we continue to further develop this method for quantification.

Behavioural temperature regulation is a low priority in a coral reef fish (Plectropomus leopardus): insights from a novel behavioural thermoregulation system

Current understanding of behavioural thermoregulation in aquatic ectotherms largely stems from systems such as "shuttle boxes", which are generally limited in their capacity to test large-bodied species. Here, we introduce a controlled system that allows large aquatic ectotherms to roam freely in a tank at sub-optimal temperatures, using thermal refuges to increase body temperature to their thermal optimum as desired. Of the 10 coral grouper (Plectropomus leopardus; length ∼400 mm) implanted with thermal loggers, three fish maintained themselves at the ambient tank temperature of 17.5-20.5oC for the entire 2-4 d trial. Of the other seven fish, body temperature never exceeded ∼21.5oC, which was well below the temperature available in the thermal refuges (∼31oC) and below the species' optimal temperature of ∼27oC. This study adds to a growing literature documenting an unexpected lack of behavioural thermoregulation in aquatic ectotherms in controlled, heterothermal environments.

Size-weight relationships for estimating harvestable biomass of Acropora corals on Australia's Great Barrier Reef

Although hard corals (order Scleractinia) are listed in Appendix II of the Convention for the International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES), there is significant ongoing wild harvest and international trade, mostly for the aquarium industry. Acropora corals account for the majority of aquarium corals harvested and traded, but are also extremely vulnerable to fisheries-independent threats, especially climate-induced coral bleaching. Reconciling effects of coral harvesting is complicated as harvest limits are based on weight, while there is limited data on standing biomass of Acropora from different reef environments. Here, a management-friendly methodology that allows for quantification of Acropora spp. biomass is described and demonstrated, thus providing means for the development and implementation of a rigorous sustainable harvest strategy. We establish size-weight relationships for four growth forms of Acropora spp. harvested from Australia's Great Barrier Reef, to facilitate estimates of harvestable biomass and better understand the ecological context of current weight-based harvest levels and limits. Using these relationships, and field-based sampling at 12 sites across seven distinct reefs, the estimated biomass of Acropora spp. ranges from 0.12 kg ⋅ m^-2 to 4.7 kg ⋅ m^-2. These estimates necessitate further consideration of catch composition and the specific abundance of individual species that are heavily harvested, and how impacts of current harvest practices interact with species-specific vulnerability to climate change and other escalating human pressures contributing to the degradation of coral reef ecosystems. This study is a crucial first step towards quantifying the ecological impacts of the fishery to develop management strategies that are underpinned by research.

Knowledge Gaps in the Biology, Ecology, and Management of the Pacific Crown-of-Thorns Sea Star Acanthaster sp. on Australia's Great Barrier Reef

AbstractCrown-of-thorns sea stars (Acanthaster sp.) are among the most studied coral reef organisms, owing to their propensity to undergo major population irruptions, which contribute to significant coral loss and reef degradation throughout the Indo-Pacific. However, there are still important knowledge gaps pertaining to the biology, ecology, and management of Acanthaster sp. Renewed efforts to advance understanding and management of Pacific crown-of-thorns sea stars (Acanthaster sp.) on Australia's Great Barrier Reef require explicit consideration of relevant and tractable knowledge gaps. Drawing on established horizon scanning methodologies, this study identified contemporary knowledge gaps by asking active and/or established crown-of-thorns sea star researchers to pose critical research questions that they believe should be addressed to improve the understanding and management of crown-of-thorns sea stars on the Great Barrier Reef. A total of 38 participants proposed 246 independent research questions, organized into 7 themes: feeding ecology, demography, distribution and abundance, predation, settlement, management, and environmental change. Questions were further assigned to 48 specific topics nested within the 7 themes. During this process, redundant questions were removed, which reduced the total number of distinct research questions to 172. Research questions posed were mostly related to themes of demography (46 questions) and management (48 questions). The dominant topics, meanwhile, were the incidence of population irruptions (16 questions), feeding ecology of larval sea stars (15 questions), effects of elevated water temperature on crown-of-thorns sea stars (13 questions), and predation on juveniles (12 questions). While the breadth of questions suggests that there is considerable research needed to improve understanding and management of crown-of-thorns sea stars on the Great Barrier Reef, the predominance of certain themes and topics suggests a major focus for new research while also providing a roadmap to guide future research efforts.

DNA-Based Detection and Patterns of Larval Settlement of the Corallivorous Crown-of-Thorns Sea Star (Acanthaster sp.)

AbstractPopulation irruptions of the western Pacific crown-of-thorns sea star (Acanthaster sp.) are a perennial threat to coral reefs and may be initiated by fluctuations in reproductive or settlement success. However, the processes dictating their early life history, particularly larval settlement, remain poorly understood given limitations in sampling larvae and newly settled juveniles in the field. Here, we introduce an innovative method to measure crown-of-thorns sea star settlement, using artificial settlement collectors and droplet digital polymerase chain reaction based on crown-of-thorns sea star-specific mitochondrial DNA primers. This study demonstrated the utility of this method and explored temporal and spatial patterns of crown-of-thorns sea star settlement on the Great Barrier Reef from 2016 to 2020. Settlement varied considerably between sampling periods at Rib Reef and peaked between October 2016 and January 2017. Our results further suggest that crown-of-thorns sea star larvae readily settle in shallow reef environments, with no preferential settlement detected between depths tested (4-12 m). Substantial variation between Great Barrier Reef regions was revealed in 2019-2020, because collectors deployed on reefs in the central Great Barrier Reef were >10 times as likely to record newly settled crown-of-thorns sea stars as reefs in the northern Great Barrier Reef near Lizard Island. The trends reported here add to our understanding of this critical life-history stage; however, further method validation and larger-scale studies are needed to address pertinent information gaps, such as the stock-recruitment dynamics of this species. Most importantly, fluctuations in crown-of-thorns sea star settlement can now be detected using this sampling protocol, which demonstrates its utility in heralding new and renewed population irruptions of this destructive sea star.

Metabolic Responses of Pacific Crown-of-Thorns Sea Stars (Acanthaster sp.) to Acute Warming

AbstractClimate change and population irruptions of crown-of-thorns sea stars (Acanthaster sp.) are two of the most pervasive threats to coral reefs. Yet there has been little consideration regarding the synergies between ocean warming and the coral-feeding sub-adult and adult stages of this asteroid. Here we explored the thermosensitivity of the aforementioned life stages by assessing physiological responses to acute warming. Thermal sensitivity was assessed based on the maximal activity of enzymes involved in aerobic (citrate synthase) and anaerobic (lactate dehydrogenase) metabolic pathways, as well as the standard metabolic rate of sub-adult and adult sea stars. In both life stages, citrate synthase activity declined with increasing temperature from 15 °C to 40 °C, with negligible activity occurring >35 °C. On the other hand, lactate dehydrogenase activity increased with temperature from 20 °C to 45 °C, indicating a greater reliance on anaerobic metabolism in a warmer environment. The standard metabolic rate of sub-adult sea stars increased with temperature throughout the testing range (24 °C to 36 °C). Adult sea stars exhibited evidence of thermal stress, with metabolic depression occurring from 33 °C. Here, we demonstrate that crown-of-thorns sea stars are sensitive to warming but that adults, and especially sub-adults, may have some resilience to short-term marine heatwaves in the near future.

Regional versus latitudinal variation in the life-history traits and demographic rates of a reef fish, Centropyge bispinosa, in the Coral Sea and Great Barrier Reef Marine Parks, Australia

Environmental temperature is an important determinant of physiological processes and life histories in ectotherms. Over latitudinal scales, variation in temperature has been linked to changes in life-history traits and demographic rates, with growth and mortality rates generally being greatest at low latitudes, and longevity and maximum length being greater at higher latitudes. Using the two-spined angelfish, Centropyge bispinosa, as our focal species, we compared growth patterns, growth rates, longevity, mortality, asymptotic length and maximum length across 22 reefs that span 13° of latitude within the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP) and the Coral Sea Marine Park (CSMP), Australia. We found no predictable latitudinal variation in mortality rates, growth patterns, growth rates, asymptotic or maximum length of C. bispinosa at regional to biogeographic scales. However, C. bispinosa consistently exhibited reduced longevity at lower, warmer latitudes within the CSMP. The greatest differences in mean maximum length of C. bispinosa were between continental (GBRMP) and oceanic (central CSMP) reefs of similar latitude, with individuals being larger on average on continental versus oceanic reefs. The lack of predictable life-history and demographic variation in C. bispinosa across a 13° latitudinal gradient within the CSMP, coupled with differences in mean maximum length between continental and oceanic reefs at similar latitudes, suggest that local environmental conditions have a greater influence than environmental temperature on the demographic rates and life-history traits of C. bispinosa.

Global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming

Ocean warming and acidification threaten the future growth of coral reefs. This is because the calcifying coral reef taxa that construct the calcium carbonate frameworks and cement the reef together are highly sensitive to ocean warming and acidification. However, the global-scale effects of ocean warming and acidification on rates of coral reef net carbonate production remain poorly constrained despite a wealth of studies assessing their effects on the calcification of individual organisms. Here, we present global estimates of projected future changes in coral reef net carbonate production under ocean warming and acidification. We apply a meta-analysis of responses of coral reef taxa calcification and bioerosion rates to predicted changes in coral cover driven by climate change to estimate the net carbonate production rates of 183 reefs worldwide by 2050 and 2100. We forecast mean global reef net carbonate production under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 will decline by 76, 149, and 156%, respectively, by 2100. While 63% of reefs are projected to continue to accrete by 2100 under RCP2.6, 94% will be eroding by 2050 under RCP8.5, and no reefs will continue to accrete at rates matching projected sea level rise under RCP4.5 or 8.5 by 2100. Projected reduced coral cover due to bleaching events predominately drives these declines rather than the direct physiological impacts of ocean warming and acidification on calcification or bioerosion. Presently degraded reefs were also more sensitive in our analysis. These findings highlight the low likelihood that the world's coral reefs will maintain their functional roles without near-term stabilization of atmospheric CO2 emissions.

Homing behaviour by destructive crown-of-thorns starfish is triggered by local availability of coral prey

Corallivorous crown-of-thorns starfishes (Acanthaster spp.) can decimate coral assemblages on Indo-Pacific coral reefs during population outbreaks. While initial drivers of population irruptions leading to outbreaks remain largely unknown, subsequent dispersal of outbreaks appears coincident with depletion of coral prey. Here, we used in situ time-lapse photography to characterize movement of the Pacific crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster cf. solaris) in the northern and southern Great Barrier Reef in 2015, during the fourth recorded population outbreak of the starfish, but prior to widespread coral bleaching. Daily tracking of 58 individuals over a total of 1117 h revealed all starfish to move a minimum of 0.52 m, with around half of all tracked starfish showing negligible daily displacement (less than 1 m day^-1), ranging up to a maximum of 19 m day^-1. Movement was primarily nocturnal and daily displacement varied spatially with variation in local availability of Acropora spp., which is the preferred coral prey. Two distinct behavioural modes emerged: (i) homing movement, whereby tracked paths (as tested against a random-walk-model) involved short displacement distances following distinct 'outward' movement to Acropora prey (typically displaying 'feeding scars') and 'homebound' movement to nearby shelter; versus (ii) roaming movement, whereby individuals showed directional movement beyond initial tracking positions without return. Logistic modelling revealed more than half of all tracked starfish demonstrated homing when local abundance (percentage cover) of preferred Acropora coral prey was greater than 33%. Our results reveal facultative homing by Acanthaster with the prey-dependent behavioural switch to roaming forays providing a mechanism explaining localized aggregations and diffusion of these population irruptions as prey is locally depleted.

Larval connectivity and water quality explain spatial distribution of crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks across the Great Barrier Reef

Outbreaks of the coral eating crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS; Acanthasts cf. solaris) occur in cyclical waves along the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), contributing significantly to the decline in hard coral cover over the past 30 years. One main difficulty faced by scientists and managers alike, is understanding the relative importance of contributing factors to COTS outbreaks such as increased nutrients and water quality, larval connectivity, fishing pressure, and abiotic conditions. We analysed COTS abundances from the most recent outbreak (2010-2018) using both boosted regression trees and generalised additive models to identify key predictors of COTS outbreaks. We used this approach to predict the suitability of each reef on the GBR for COTS outbreaks at three different levels: (1) reefs with COTS present intermittently (Presence); (2) reefs with COTS widespread and present in most samples and (Prevalence) (3) reefs experiencing outbreak levels of COTS (Outbreak). We also compared the utility of two auto-covariates accounting for spatial autocorrelation among observations, built using weighted inverse distance and weighted larval connectivity to reefs supporting COTS populations, respectively. Boosted regression trees (BRT) and generalised additive mixed models (GAMM) were combined in an ensemble model to reduce the effect of model uncertainty on predictions of COTS presence, prevalence and outbreaks. Our results from best performing models indicate that temperature (Degree Heating Week exposure: relative importance=13.1%) and flood plume exposure (13.0%) are the best predictors of COTS presence, variability in chlorophyll concentration (12.6%) and flood plume exposure (8.2%) best predicted COTS prevalence and larval connectivity potential (22.7%) and minimum sea surface temperature (8.0%) are the best predictors of COTS outbreaks. Whether the reef was open or closed to fishing, however, had no significant effect on either COTS presence, prevalence or outbreaks in BRT results (<0.5%). We identified major hotspots of COTS activity primarily on the mid shelf central GBR and on the southern Swains reefs. This study provides the first empirical comparison of the major hypotheses of COTS outbreaks and the first validated predictions of COTS outbreak potential at the GBR scale incorporating connectivity, nutrients, biophysical and spatial variables, providing a useful aid to management of this pest species on the GBR.

Comparative demography of commercially important species of coral grouper, Plectropomus leopardus and P. laevis, from Australia's great barrier reef and Coral Sea marine parks

Understanding the spatial and environmental variation in demographic processes of fisheries target species, such as coral grouper (Genus: Plectropomus), is important for establishing effective management and conservation strategies. Herein we compare the demography of Plectropomus leopardus and P. laevis between Australia's Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP), which has been subject to sustained and extensive fishing pressure, and the oceanic atolls of Australia's Coral Sea Marine Park (CSMP), where there is very limited fishing for reef fishes. Coral grouper length-at-age data from contemporary and historical otolith collections across 9.4 degrees of latitude showed little difference in lifetime growth between GBRMP and CSMP regions. Plectropomus laevis populations in GBRMP reefs had significantly higher rates of total mortality than populations in the CSMP. Mean maximum lengths and mean maximum ages of P. laevis were also smaller in the GBRMP than in the CSMP, even when considering populations sampled within GBRMP no-take marine reserves (NTMRs). Plectropomus leopardus, individuals were on average smaller on fished reefs than NTMRs in the GBRMP, but all other aspects of demography were broadly similar between regions despite the negligible levels of fishing pressure in the CSMP. Similarities between regions in growth profiles and length-at-age comparisons of P. laevis and P. leopardus suggest that the environmental differences between the CSMP and the GBRMP may not have significant impacts on lifetime growth. Our results show that fishing may have influenced the demography of coral grouper on the GBR, particularly for the slower growing and longer lived species, P. laevis.

Projected shifts in coral size structure in the Anthropocene

Changes in the size structure of coral populations have major consequences for population dynamics and community function, yet many coral reef monitoring projects do not record this critical feature. Consequently, our understanding of current and future trajectories in coral size structure, and the demographic processes underlying these changes, is still emerging. Here, we provide a conceptual summary of the benefits to be gained from more comprehensive attention to the size of coral colonies in reef monitoring projects, and we support our argument through the use of case-history examples and a simplified ecological model. We neither seek to review the available empirical data, or to rigorously explore causes and implications of changes in coral size, we seek to reveal the advantages to modifying ongoing programs to embrace the information inherent in changing coral colony size. Within this framework, we evaluate and forecast the mechanics and implications of changes in the population structure of corals that are transitioning from high to low abundance, and from large to small colonies, sometimes without striking effects on planar coral cover. Using two coral reef locations that have been sampled for coral size, we use demographic data to underscore the limitations of coral cover in understanding the causes and consequences of long-term declining coral size, and abundance. A stage-structured matrix model is used to evaluate the demographic causes of declining coral colony size and abundance, particularly with respect to the risks of extinction. The model revealed differential effects of mortality, growth and fecundity on coral size distributions. It also suggested that colony rarity and declining colony size in association with partial tissue mortality and chronic declines in fecundity, can lead to a demographic bottleneck with the potential to prolong the existence of coral populations when they are characterized by mostly very small colonies. Such bottlenecks could have ecological importance if they can delay extinction and provide time for human intervention to alleviate the environmental degradation driving reductions in coral abundance.

Contrasting size and fate of juvenile crown-of-thorns starfish linked to ontogenetic diet shifts

Population dynamics of organisms are shaped by the variation in phenotypic traits, often expressed even among individuals from the same cohort. For example, individual variation in the timing of ontogenetic shifts in diet and/or habitat greatly influences subsequent growth and survival of some organisms, with critical effects on population dynamics. Few studies of natural systems have, however, demonstrated that marked phenotypic variation in growth rates or body size among individuals within a modelled cohort is linked to dietary shifts and food availability. Population irruptions of the crown-of-thorns starfish are one of the foremost contributors to the global degradation of coral reefs, but causes of irruptions have been debated for decades. Here we demonstrate, based on extensive field sampling of juvenile starfish (n = 3532), that marked variation in body size among juvenile starfish is linked to an ontogenetic diet shift from coralline algae to coral. This transition in diet leads to exponential growth in juveniles and is essential for individuals to reach maturity. Because smaller individuals experience higher mortality and growth is stunted on an algal diet, the ontogenetic shift to corallivory enhances individual fitness and replenishment success. Our findings suggest that the availability of coral prey facilitates early ontogenetic diet shifts and may be fundamental in initiating population irruptions.

Gene expression correlates of social evolution in coral reef butterflyfishes

Animals display remarkable variation in social behaviour. However, outside of rodents, little is known about the neural mechanisms of social variation, and whether they are shared across species and sexes, limiting our understanding of how sociality evolves. Using coral reef butterflyfishes, we examined gene expression correlates of social variation (i.e. pair bonding versus solitary living) within and between species and sexes. In several brain regions, we quantified gene expression of receptors important for social variation in mammals: oxytocin (OTR), arginine vasopressin (V1aR), dopamine (D1R, D2R) and mu-opioid (MOR). We found that social variation across individuals of the oval butterflyfish, Chaetodon lunulatus, is linked to differences in OTR,V1aR, D1R, D2R and MOR gene expression within several forebrain regions in a sexually dimorphic manner. However, this contrasted with social variation among six species representing a single evolutionary transition from pair-bonded to solitary living. Here, OTR expression within the supracommissural part of the ventral telencephalon was higher in pair-bonded than solitary species, specifically in males. These results contribute to the emerging idea that nonapeptide, dopamine and opioid signalling is a central theme to the evolution of sociality across individuals, although the precise mechanism may be flexible across sexes and species.

Biogeographical variation in diurnal behaviour of Acanthaster planci versus Acanthaster cf. solaris

Crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS; Acanthaster spp.) are among the most extensively studied coral reef taxa, largely owing to their devastating impacts on live coral cover during population outbreaks. Much of this research has however, been conducted in the western Pacific, although it is now apparent that there are several distinct species of Acanthaster spp. across the Indo-Pacific. The purpose of this study was to test for biogeographical variation in behaviour, comparing between Acanthaster planci at Lankanfushi Island in the Maldives and Acanthaster cf. solaris at Rib Reef on Australia's Great Barrier Reef. The extent to which CoTS were exposed (cf. concealed within or beneath coral substrates) was substantially higher (63.14%) for A. planci at Lankanfushi Island, compared to 28.55% for A. cf. solaris at Rib Reef, regardless of time of day. More importantly, only 52% of individuals were exposed at night at Rib Reef compared to >97% at reefs around Lankanfushi Island. Biogeographic variation in the behaviour of Acanthaster spp. was independent of differences in the size structure of starfish and coral cover at specific study sites, but may be attributable to other environmental factors such as habitat complexity or prey availability. This is the first study to explicitly test for biogeographical differences in the biology and behaviour of Acanthaster spp., potentially linked to species-specific differences in the causes and explanations of population outbreaks. However, we did not find evidence at this stage of differences in behavior among regions, rather behavioural differences observed were most likely products of different environments.

Deficits in functional trait diversity following recovery on coral reefs

The disturbance regimes of ecosystems are changing, and prospects for continued recovery remain unclear. New assemblages with altered species composition may be deficient in key functional traits. Alternatively, important traits may be sustained by species that replace those in decline (response diversity). Here, we quantify the recovery and response diversity of coral assemblages using case studies of disturbance in three locations. Despite return trajectories of coral cover, the original assemblages with diverse functional attributes failed to recover at each location. Response diversity and the reassembly of trait space was limited, and varied according to biogeographic differences in the attributes of dominant, rapidly recovering species. The deficits in recovering assemblages identified here suggest that the return of coral cover cannot assure the reassembly of reef trait diversity, and that shortening intervals between disturbances can limit recovery among functionally important species.

Habitat complexity influences selection of thermal environment in a common coral reef fish

Coral reef species, like most tropical species, are sensitive to increasing environmental temperatures, with many species already living close to their thermal maxima. Ocean warming and the increasing frequency and intensity of marine heatwaves are challenging the persistence of reef-associated species through both direct physiological effects of elevated water temperatures and the degradation and loss of habitat structure following disturbance. Understanding the relative importance of habitat degradation and ocean warming in shaping species distributions is critical in predicting the likely biological effects of global warming. Using an automated shuttle box system, we investigated how habitat complexity influences the selection of thermal environments for a common coral reef damselfish, Chromis atripectoralis. In the absence of any habitat (i.e. control), C. atripectoralis avoided temperatures below 22.9 ± 0.8°C and above 31.9 ± 0.6°C, with a preferred temperature (T _pref) of 28.1 ± 0.9°C. When complex habitat was available, individual C. atripectoralis occupied temperatures down to 4.3°C lower (mean ± SE; threshold: 18.6 ± 0.7°C; T _pref: 18.9 ± 1.0°C) than control fish. Conversely, C. atripectoralis in complex habitats occupied similar upper temperatures as control fish (threshold: 31.7 ± 0.4°C; preference: 28.3 ± 0.7°C). Our results show that the availability of complex habitat can influence the selection of thermal environment by a coral reef fish, but only at temperatures below their thermal preference. The limited scope of C. atripectoralis to occupy warmer environments, even when associated with complex habitat, suggests that habitat restoration efforts in areas that continue to warm may not be effective in retaining populations of C. atripectoralis and similar species. This species may have to move to cooler (e.g. deeper or higher latitude) habitats under predicted future warming. The integration of habitat quality and thermal environment into conservation efforts will be essential to conserve of coral reef fish populations under future ocean warming scenarios.

COTSMod: A spatially explicit metacommunity model of outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish and coral recovery

Outbreaks of the Pacific crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS; Acanthaster cf. solaris) have been responsible for 40% of the decline in coral cover on the GBR over the last 35 years. With the intensity and frequency of bleaching and cyclonic disturbances increasing, effectively managing these outbreaks may allow reefs an opportunity to recover from these cumulative impacts. Significant research effort has been directed toward developing regional scale models for COTS outbreaks, but these have yet to be fit explicitly to long term time series at the scale of the entire GBR, nor do previous research efforts incorporate explicit estimates of cumulative disturbance history. We developed a stage-based metapopulation model for COTS at a 1×1km resolution using long-term time series and modelled estimates of COTS larval connectivity, nutrient concentrations and important vital rates estimated from the literature. We coupled this metapopulation model to an existing spatially explicit model of coral cover growth, disturbance and recovery across the GBR from 1996 to 2017 to create a metacommunity model. Our results were validated against a spatially and temporally extensive dataset of COTS and coral cover across the GBR, predicting an average coral decline of 1.3% p.a. across the GBR, and accurately recreating coral cover trajectories (mean prediction error=7.1%) and COTS outbreak classification (accuracy=80%). Sensitivity analyses revealed that overall model accuracy was most sensitive to larval predation (boosted regression tree; relative importance=46.7%) and two parameters defining juvenile density dependent mortality (21.5% and 17.5%). The COTS model underestimated peak COTS densities particularly in the Swains and Townsville sectors of the reef, while overestimating COTS density during non-outbreak years. A better understanding of inter-annual variability in larval connectivity, and regionally variable density dependence for adult COTS life stages may improve model fit during these extreme outbreak events. Our model provides a platform to develop upon, and with improvements to estimates of larval connectivity and larval predation could be used to simulate the effects of implementing varying combinations of COTS interventions. This research highlights the importance of the early life history stages of COTS as drivers of outbreak dynamics, emphasizing the need for further empirical research to estimate these parameters.

Changes in the population and community structure of corals during recent disturbances (February 2016-October 2017) on Maldivian coral reefs

Climate change is the greatest threat to coral reef ecosystems. In particular, increasing ocean temperatures are causing severe and widespread coral bleaching, contributing to extensive coral loss and degradation of coral reef habitats globally. Effects of coral bleaching are not however, equally apportioned among different corals, leading to shifts in population and community structure. This study explored variation in bleaching susceptibility and mortality associated with the 2016 severe mass bleaching in the Central Maldives Archipelago. Five dominant coral taxa (tabular Acropora, Acropora humilis, Acropora muricata, Pocillopora and massive Porites) were surveyed in February 2016 and October 2017 to test for changes in abundance and size structure. Substantial taxonomic differences in rates of mortality were observed; the most severely affected taxa, Acropora, were virtually extirpated during the course of this study, whereas some other taxa (most notably, massive Porites) were relatively unaffected. However, even the least affected corals exhibited marked changes in population structure. In February 2016 (prior to recent mass-bleaching), size-frequency distributions of all coral taxa were dominated by larger size classes with over-centralized, peaked distributions (negatively skewed with positive kurtosis) reflecting a mature population structure. In October 2017, after the bleaching, coral populations were dominated by smaller and medium size classes, reflecting high levels of mortality and injury among larger coral colonies. Pronounced changes in coral populations and communities in the Maldives, caused by coral bleaching and other disturbances (outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish and sedimentation), will constrain recovery capacity, further compounding upon recent coral loss.

Global warming impairs stock-recruitment dynamics of corals

Changes in disturbance regimes due to climate change are increasingly challenging the capacity of ecosystems to absorb recurrent shocks and reassemble afterwards, escalating the risk of widespread ecological collapse of current ecosystems and the emergence of novel assemblages^1-3. In marine systems, the production of larvae and recruitment of functionally important species are fundamental processes for rebuilding depleted adult populations, maintaining resilience and avoiding regime shifts in the face of rising environmental pressures^4,5. Here we document a regional-scale shift in stock-recruitment relationships of corals along the Great Barrier Reef-the world's largest coral reef system-following unprecedented back-to-back mass bleaching events caused by global warming. As a consequence of mass mortality of adult brood stock in 2016 and 2017 owing to heat stress⁶, the amount of larval recruitment declined in 2018 by 89% compared to historical levels. For the first time, brooding pocilloporids replaced spawning acroporids as the dominant taxon in the depleted recruitment pool. The collapse in stock-recruitment relationships indicates that the low resistance of adult brood stocks to repeated episodes of coral bleaching is inexorably tied to an impaired capacity for recovery, which highlights the multifaceted processes that underlie the global decline of coral reefs. The extent to which the Great Barrier Reef will be able to recover from the collapse in stock-recruitment relationships remains uncertain, given the projected increased frequency of extreme climate events over the next two decades⁷.

Differences in diet and biotransformation enzymes of coral reef butterflyfishes between Australia and Hawaii

Many reef fishes are capable of feeding on chemically-defended benthic prey, such as soft (alcyonarian) corals; however, little is known about the molecular mechanisms that underpin allelochemical biotransformation and detoxification. Butterflyfishes (Chaetodon: Chaetdontidae) are a useful group for comparatively exploring links between biotransformation enzymes and diet, because they commonly feed on chemically defended prey. Moreover, diets of some species vary among geographic locations. This study compares gene expression, protein and enzymatic activity of key detoxification enzymes (cytochrome P450 (CYP) 2, 3, epoxide hydrolase, glutathione transferase and UDP-glucuronosyltransferase) in livers of four coral-feeding butterflyfish species between Australia and Hawaii, where these fishes differ in diet composition. For C. kleinii, C. auriga, and C. unimaculatus, we found higher CYP2 and CYP3 levels were linked to more allelochemically rich diets in Australia relative to Hawaii. For C. lunulatus from Hawaii CYP2 and CYP3 levels were 1 to 20-fold higher than C. lunulatus from Australia, possibly due to their predominant prey in Hawaii (Porities spp.) being richer in allelochemicals. UGT, GST and epoxide hydrolase varied between species and location and did not correspond to any specific dietary preference or location. Higher levels of CYP2 and CYP3A isozymes in species that feed on allelochemically-rich prey suggest that these biotransformation enzymes may be involved in detoxification of coral dietary allelochemicals in butterflyfishes.

Exceptional biodiversity of the cryptofaunal decapods in the Chagos Archipelago, central Indian Ocean

The Chagos Archipelago is geographically remote and isolated from most direct anthropogenic pressures. Here, we quantify the abundance and diversity of decapod crustaceans inhabiting dead coral colonies, representing a standardised microhabitat, across the Archipelago. Using morphological and molecular techniques we recorded 1868 decapods from 164 nominal species within 54 dead coral colonies, but total species estimates (Chao1 estimator) calculate at least 217 species. Galatheids were the most dominant taxa, though alpheids and hippolytids were also very abundant. 32% of species were rare, and 46% of species were found at only one atoll. This prevalence of rarer species has been reported in other cryptofauna studies, suggesting these assemblages maybe comprised of low-abundance species. This study provides the first estimate of diversity for reef cryptofauna in Chagos, which will serve as a useful baseline for global comparisons of coral reef biodiversity.

Contributions of pre- versus post-settlement processes to fluctuating abundance of crown-of-thorns starfishes (Acanthaster spp.)

Numerous hypotheses have been put forward to account for population outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfishes (CoTS, Acanthaster spp.), which place specific importance on either pre- or post-settlement mechanisms. The purpose of this review is to specifically assess the contributions of pre- versus post-settlement processes in the population dynamics of CoTS. Given the immense reproductive potential of CoTS (>100 million eggs per female), persistent high densities would appear inevitable unless there were significant constraints on larval development, settlement success, and/or early post-settlement growth and survival. In terms of population constraints, pre- and post-settlement processes are both important and have additive effects to suppress densities of juvenile and adult CoTS within reef ecosystems. It is difficult, however, to assess the relative contributions of pre- versus post-settlement processes to population outbreaks, especially given limited data on settlement rates, as well as early post-settlement growth and mortality. Prioritising this research is important to resolve potential effects of anthropogenic activities (e.g., fishing) and habitat degradation on changing population dynamics of CoTS, and will also improve management effectiveness.

Mass coral bleaching causes biotic homogenization of reef fish assemblages

Global climate change is altering community composition across many ecosystems due to nonrandom species turnover, typically characterized by the loss of specialist species and increasing similarity of biological communities across spatial scales. As anthropogenic disturbances continue to alter species composition globally, there is a growing need to identify how species responses influence the establishment of distinct assemblages, such that management actions may be appropriately assigned. Here, we use trait-based analyses to compare temporal changes in five complementary indices of reef fish assemblage structure among six taxonomically distinct coral reef habitats exposed to a system-wide thermal stress event. Our results revealed increased taxonomic and functional similarity of previously distinct reef fish assemblages following mass coral bleaching, with changes characterized by subtle, but significant, shifts toward predominance of small-bodied, algal-farming habitat generalists. Furthermore, while the taxonomic or functional richness of fish assemblages did not change across all habitats, an increase in functional originality indicated an overall loss of functional redundancy. We also found that prebleaching coral composition better predicted changes in fish assemblage structure than the magnitude of coral loss. These results emphasize how measures of alpha diversity can mask important changes in the structure and functioning of ecosystems as assemblages reorganize. Our findings also highlight the role of coral species composition in structuring communities and influencing the diversity of responses of reef fishes to disturbance. As new coral species configurations emerge, their desirability will hinge upon the composition of associated species and their capacity to maintain key ecological processes in spite of ongoing disturbances.

Variation in social systems within Chaetodon butterflyfishes, with special reference to pair bonding

For many animals, affiliative relationships such as pair bonds form the foundation of society and are highly adaptive. Animal systems amenable for comparatively studying pair bonding are important for identifying underlying biological mechanisms, but mostly exist in mammals. Better establishing fish systems will enable comparison of pair bonding mechanisms across taxonomically distant lineages that may reveal general underlying mechanistic principles. We examined the utility of wild butterflyfishes (f: Chaetodontidae; g: Chaetodon) for comparatively studying pair bonding. Using stochastic character mapping, we provide the first analysis of the evolutionary history of butterflyfish sociality, revealing that pairing is ancestral, with at least seven independent transitions to gregarious grouping and solitary behavior since the late Miocene. We then formally verified social systems in six sympatric and wide-spread species representing a clade with one ancestrally reconstructed transition from paired to solitary grouping at Lizard Island, Australia. In situ observations of the size, selective affiliation and aggression, fidelity, and sex composition of social groups confirmed that Chaetodon baronessa, C. lunulatus, and C. vagabundus are predominantly pair bonding, whereas C. rainfordi, C. plebeius, and C. trifascialis are predominantly solitary. Even in the predominantly pair bonding species, C. lunulatus, a proportion of adults (15%) are solitary. Importantly, inter- and intra-specific differences in social systems do not co-vary with other previously established attributes, including parental care. Hence, the proposed butterflyfish populations are promising for inter- and intra-species comparative analyses of pair bonding and its mechanistic underpinnings. Avenues for further developing the system are proposed, including determining whether the aforementioned utility of these species applies across their geographic disruptions.

Trait and phylogenetic diversity provide insights into community assembly of reef-associated shrimps (Palaemonidae) at different spatial scales across the Chagos Archipelago

Coral reefs are the most biodiverse marine ecosystem and one of the most threatened by global climate change impacts. The vast majority of diversity on reefs is comprised of small invertebrates that live within the reef structure, termed the cryptofauna. This component of biodiversity is hugely understudied, and many species remain undescribed. This study represents a rare analysis of assembly processes structuring a distinct group of cryptofauna, the Palaemonidae, in the Chagos Archipelago, a reef ecosystem under minimal direct human impacts in the central Indian Ocean. The Palaemonidae are a diverse group of Caridae (infraorder of shrimps) that inhabit many different niches on coral reefs and are of particular interest because of their varied habitat associations. Phylogenetic and trait diversity and phylogenetic signal were used to infer likely drivers of community structure. The mechanisms driving palaemonid community assembly and maintenance in the Chagos Archipelago showed distinct spatial patterns. At local scales, among coral colonies and among reefs fringing individual atolls, significant trait, and phylogenetic clustering patterns suggest environmental filtering may be a dominant ecological process driving Palaemonidae community structure, although local competition through equalizing mechanisms may also play a role in shaping the local community structure. Importantly, we also tested the robustness of phylogenetic diversity to changes in evolutionary information as multi‐gene phylogenies are resource intensive and for large families, such as the Palaemonidae, are often incomplete. These tests demonstrated a very modest impact on phylogenetic community structure, with only one of the four genes (PEPCK gene) in the phylogeny affecting phylogenetic diversity patterns, which provides useful information for future studies on large families with incomplete phylogenies. These findings contribute to our limited knowledge of this component of biodiversity in a marine locality as close to undisturbed by humans as can be found. It also provides a rare evaluation of phylogenetic diversity methods.

3D photogrammetry quantifies growth and external erosion of individual coral colonies and skeletons

Growth and contraction of ecosystem engineers, such as trees, influence ecosystem structure and function. On coral reefs, methods to measure small changes in the structure of microhabitats, driven by growth of coral colonies and contraction of skeletons, are extremely limited. We used 3D reconstructions to quantify changes in the external structure of coral colonies of tabular Acropora spp., the dominant habitat-forming corals in shallow exposed reefs across the Pacific. The volume and surface area of live colonies increased by 21% and 22%, respectively, in 12 months, corresponding to a mean annual linear extension of 5.62 cm yr-1 (±1.81 SE). The volume and surface area of dead skeletons decreased by 52% and 47%, respectively, corresponding to a mean decline in linear extension of -29.56 cm yr-1 (±7.08 SE), which accounted for both erosion and fragmentation of dead colonies. This is the first study to use 3D photogrammetry to assess fine-scale structural changes of entire individual colonies in situ, quantifying coral growth and contraction. The high-resolution of the technique allows for detection of changes on reef structure faster than other non-intrusive approaches. These results improve our capacity to measure the drivers underpinning ecosystem biodiversity, status and trajectory.

Body size and substrate type modulate movement by the western Pacific crown-of-thorns starfish, Acanthaster solaris

The movement capacity of the crown-of-thorns starfishes (Acanthaster spp.) is a primary determinant of both their distribution and impact on coral assemblages. We quantified individual movement rates for the Pacific crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster solaris) ranging in size from 75–480 mm total diameter, across three different substrates (sand, flat consolidated pavement, and coral rubble) on the northern Great Barrier Reef. The mean (±SE) rate of movement for smaller (<150 mm total diameter) A. solaris was 23.99 ± 1.02 cm/ min and 33.41 ± 1.49 cm/ min for individuals >350 mm total diameter. Mean (±SE) rates of movement varied with substrate type, being much higher on sand (36.53 ± 1.31 cm/ min) compared to consolidated pavement (28.04 ± 1.15 cm/ min) and slowest across coral rubble (17.25 ± 0.63 cm/ min). If average rates of movement measured here can be sustained, in combination with strong directionality, displacement distances of adult A. solaris could range from 250–520 m/ day, depending on the prevailing substrate. Sustained movement of A. solaris is, however, likely to be highly constrained by habitat heterogeneity, energetic constraints, resource availability, and diurnal patterns of activity, thereby limiting their capacity to move between reefs or habitats.

Aggression, interference, and the functional response of coral-feeding butterflyfishes

Functional responses describing how foraging rates change with respect to resource density are central to our understanding of interspecific interactions. Competitive interactions are an important determinant of foraging rates; however, the relationship between the exploitation and interference components of competition has received little empirical or theoretical consideration. Moreover, little is known about the relationship between aggressive behavioural interactions and interference competition. Using a natural gradient of consumer and resource densities, we empirically examine how aggressiveness relates to consumer-consumer encounter rates and foraging for four species of Chaetodon reef fish spanning a range of dietary niche breadths. The probability of aggression was most strongly associated with both total consumer and resource densities. In contrast, total encounter rates were best predicted by conspecific consumer density, and were highest for the most specialised consumer (Chaetodon trifascialis), not the most aggressive (Chaetodon baronessa). The most specialised consumer, not the most aggressive, also exhibited the largest reduction in foraging rates with increasing consumer density. Our results support the idea of a positive link between the exploitation and interference components of competition for the most specialised consumer. Moreover, our results caution against inferring the presence of ecological interactions (competition) from observations of behaviour (aggression and agonism) alone.

Variation in growth rates of branching corals along Australia's Great Barrier Reef

Coral growth is an important component of reef health and resilience. However, few studies have investigated temporal and/or spatial variation in growth of branching corals, which are important contributors to the structure and function of reef habitats. This study assessed growth (linear extension, density, and calcification) of three branching coral species (Acropora muricata, Pocillopora damicornis and Isopora palifera) at three distinct locations (Lizard Island, Davies/Trunk Reef, and Heron Island) along Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Annual growth rates of all species were highest at Lizard Island and declined with increasing latitude, corresponding with differences in temperature. Within locations, however, seasonal variation in growth did not directly correlate with temperature. Between October 2012 and October 2014, the highest growth of A. muricata was in the 2013-14 summer at Lizard Island, which was unusually cool and ~0.5 °C less than the long-term summer average temperature. At locations where temperatures reached or exceeded the long-term summer maxima, coral growth during summer periods was equal to, if not lower than, winter periods. This study shows that temperature has a significant influence on spatiotemporal patterns of branching coral growth, and high summer temperatures in the northern GBR may already be constraining coral growth and reef resilience.

Global warming may disproportionately affect larger adults in a predatory coral reef fish

Global warming is expected to reduce body sizes of ectothermic animals. Although the underlying mechanisms of size reductions remain poorly understood, effects appear stronger at latitudinal extremes (poles and tropics) and in aquatic rather than terrestrial systems. To shed light on this phenomenon, we examined the size dependence of critical thermal maxima (CTmax) and aerobic metabolism in a commercially important tropical reef fish, the leopard coral grouper (Plectropomus leopardus) following acclimation to current-day (28.5 °C) vs. projected end-of-century (33 °C) summer temperatures for the northern Great Barrier Reef (GBR). CTmax declined from 38.3 to 37.5 °C with increasing body mass in adult fish (0.45-2.82 kg), indicating that larger individuals are more thermally sensitive than smaller conspecifics. This may be explained by a restricted capacity for large fish to increase mass-specific maximum metabolic rate (MMR) at 33 °C compared with 28.5 °C. Indeed, temperature influenced the relationship between metabolism and body mass (0.02-2.38 kg), whereby the scaling exponent for MMR increased from 0.74 ± 0.02 at 28.5 °C to 0.79 ± 0.01 at 33 °C, and the corresponding exponents for standard metabolic rate (SMR) were 0.75 ± 0.04 and 0.80 ± 0.03. The increase in metabolic scaling exponents at higher temperatures suggests that energy budgets may be disproportionately impacted in larger fish and contribute to reduced maximum adult size. Such climate-induced reductions in body size would have important ramifications for fisheries productivity, but are also likely to have knock-on effects for trophodynamics and functioning of ecosystems.

Naturally occurring hybrids of coral reef butterflyfishes have similar fitness compared to parental species

Hybridisation can produce evolutionary novelty by increasing fitness and adaptive capacity. Heterosis, or hybrid vigour, has been documented in many plant and animal taxa, and is a notable consequence of hybridisation that has been exploited for decades in agriculture and aquaculture. On the contrary, loss of fitness in naturally occurring hybrid taxa has been observed in many cases. This can have negative consequences for the parental species involved (wasted reproductive effort), and has raised concerns for species conservation. This study evaluates the relative fitness of previously documented butterflyfish hybrids of the genus Chaetodon from the Indo-Pacific suture zone at Christmas Island. Histological examination confirmed the reproductive viability of Chaetodon hybrids. Examination of liver lipid content showed that hybrid body condition was not significantly different from parent species body condition. Lastly, size at age data revealed no difference in growth rates and asymptotic length between hybrids and parent species. Based on the traits measured in this study, naturally occurring hybrids of Chaetodon butterflyfishes have similar fitness to their parental species, and are unlikely to supplant parental species under current environmental conditions at the suture zone. However, given sufficient fitness and ongoing genetic exchange between the respective parental species, hybrids are likely to persist within the suture zone.

Abundance and composition of juvenile corals reveals divergent trajectories for coral assemblages across the United Arab Emirates

Marked shifts in the composition of coral assemblages are occurring at many locations, but it is unknown whether these are permanent shifts reinforced by patterns of population replenishment. This study examined the composition of juvenile coral assemblages across the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Densities of juvenile corals varied significantly among locations, but were highest where coral cover was highest. Juvenile coral assemblages within the Persian Gulf were dominated by Porites, while no Acropora were recorded. We expect therefore, continued declines in Acropora abundance, while observed dominance of Porites is likely to persist. In the Oman Sea, Pocillopora was the dominant juvenile coral, with Acropora and Stylophora also recorded. This study shows that taxonomic differences in replenishment are reinforcing temporal shifts in coral composition within the southern Persian Gulf, but not in the Oman Sea. Differences in environmental conditions and disturbance regimes likely explain the divergent responses between regions.

Assessing Different Causes of Crown-of-Thorns Starfish Outbreaks and Appropriate Responses for Management on the Great Barrier Reef

The crown-of-thorns starfish Acanthaster planci (COTS) has contributed greatly to declines in coral cover on Australia's Great Barrier Reef, and remains one of the major acute disturbances on Indo-Pacific coral reefs. Despite uncertainty about the underlying causes of outbreaks and the management responses that might address them, few studies have critically and directly compared competing hypotheses. This study uses qualitative modelling to compare hypotheses relating to outbreak initiation, explicitly considering the potential role of positive feedbacks, elevated nutrients, and removal of starfish predators by fishing. When nutrients and fishing are considered in isolation, the models indicate that a range of alternative hypotheses are capable of explaining outbreak initiation with similar levels of certainty. The models also suggest that outbreaks may be caused by multiple factors operating simultaneously, rather than by single proximal causes. As the complexity and realism of the models increased, the certainty of outcomes decreased, but key areas that require further research to improve the structure of the models were identified. Nutrient additions were likely to result in outbreaks only when COTS larvae alone benefitted from nutrients. Similarly, the effects of fishing on the decline of corals depended on the complexity of interactions among several categories of fishes. Our work suggests that management approaches which seek to be robust to model structure uncertainty should allow for multiple potential causes of outbreaks. Monitoring programs can provide tests of alternative potential causes of outbreaks if they specifically monitor all key taxa at reefs that are exposed to appropriate combinations of potential causal factors.

Coral recovery in the central Maldives archipelago since the last major mass-bleaching, in 1998

Increasing frequency and severity of disturbances is causing global degradation of coral reef ecosystems. This study examined temporal changes in live coral cover and coral composition in the central Maldives from 1997 to 2016, encompassing two bleaching events, a tsunami, and an outbreak of Acanthaster planci. We also examined the contemporary size structure for five dominant coral taxa (tabular Acropora, Acropora muricata, Acropora humilis, Pocillopora spp, and massive Porites). Total coral cover increased throughout the study period, with marked increases following the 1998 mass-bleaching. The relative abundance of key genera has changed through time, where Acropora and Pocillopora (which are highly susceptible to bleaching) were under-represented following 1998 mass-bleaching but increased until outbreaks of A. planci in 2015. The contemporary size-structure for all coral taxa was dominated by larger colonies with peaked distributions suggesting that recent disturbances had a disproportionate impact on smaller colonies, or that recruitment is currently limited. This may suggest that coral resilience has been compromised by recent disturbances, and further bleaching (expected in 2016) could lead to highly protracted recovery times. We showed that Maldivian reefs recovered following the 1998 mass-bleaching event, but it took up to a decade, and ongoing disturbances may be eroding reef resilience.

Joint estimation of crown of thorns (Acanthaster planci) densities on the Great Barrier Reef

Crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS; Acanthaster spp.) are an outbreaking pest among many Indo-Pacific coral reefs that cause substantial ecological and economic damage. Despite ongoing CoTS research, there remain critical gaps in observing CoTS populations and accurately estimating their numbers, greatly limiting understanding of the causes and sources of CoTS outbreaks. Here we address two of these gaps by (1) estimating the detectability of adult CoTS on typical underwater visual count (UVC) surveys using covariates and (2) inter-calibrating multiple data sources to estimate CoTS densities within the Cairns sector of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). We find that, on average, CoTS detectability is high at 0.82 [0.77, 0.87] (median highest posterior density (HPD) and [95% uncertainty intervals]), with CoTS disc width having the greatest influence on detection. Integrating this information with coincident surveys from alternative sampling programs, we estimate CoTS densities in the Cairns sector of the GBR averaged 44 [41, 48] adults per hectare in 2014.

Local bleaching thresholds established by remote sensing techniques vary among reefs with deviating bleaching patterns during the 2012 event in the Arabian/Persian Gulf

A severe bleaching event affected coral communities off the coast of Abu Dhabi, UAE in August/September, 2012. In Saadiyat and Ras Ghanada reefs ~40% of the corals showed signs of bleaching. In contrast, only 15% of the corals were affected on Delma reef. Bleaching threshold temperatures for these sites were established using remotely sensed sea surface temperature (SST) data recorded by MODIS-Aqua. The calculated threshold temperatures varied between locations (34.48 °C, 34.55 °C, 35.05 °C), resulting in site-specific deviations in the numbers of days during which these thresholds were exceeded. Hence, the less severe bleaching of Delma reef might be explained by the lower relative heat stress experienced by this coral community. However, the dominance of Porites spp. that is associated with the long-term exposure of Delma reef to elevated temperatures, as well as the more pristine setting may have additionally contributed to the higher coral bleaching threshold for this site.