Intermediate and Longer-Term Outcomes From a Prospective Active-Surveillance Program for Favorable-Risk Prostate Cancer

PURPOSE

To assess long-term outcomes of men with favorable-risk prostate cancer in a prospective, active-surveillance program.

METHODS

Curative intervention was recommended for disease reclassification to higher cancer grade or volume on prostate biopsy. Primary outcomes were overall, cancer-specific, and metastasis-free survival. Secondary outcomes were the cumulative incidence of reclassification and curative intervention. Factors associated with grade reclassification and curative intervention were evaluated in a Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

A total of 1,298 men (median age, 66 years) with a median follow-up of 5 years (range, 0.01 to 18.00 years) contributed 6,766 person-years of follow-up since 1995. Overall, cancer-specific, and metastasis-free survival rates were 93%, 99.9%, and 99.4%, respectively, at 10 years and 69%, 99.9%, and 99.4%, respectively, at 15 years. The cumulative incidence of grade reclassification was 26% at 10 years and was 31% at 15 years; cumulative incidence of curative intervention was 50% at 10 years and was 57% at 15 years. The median treatment-free survival was 8.5 years (range, 0.01 to 18 years). Factors associated with grade reclassification were older age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.03 for each additional year; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.06), prostate-specific antigen density (HR, 1.21 per 0.1 unit increase; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.46), and greater number of positive biopsy cores (HR, 1.47 for each additional positive core; 95% CI, 1.26 to 1.69). Factors associated with intervention were prostate-specific antigen density (HR, 1.38 per 0.1 unit increase; 95% CI, 1.22 to 1.56) and a greater number of positive biopsy cores (HR, 1.35 for one additional positive core; 95% CI, 1.19 to 1.53).

CONCLUSION

Men with favorable-risk prostate cancer should be informed of the low likelihood of harm from their diagnosis and should be encouraged to consider surveillance rather than curative intervention.

Active Surveillance of Grade Group 1 Prostate Cancer: Long-term Outcomes from a Large Prospective Cohort

BACKGROUND

Active surveillance (AS) is the preferred management option for most men with grade group (GG) 1 prostate cancer (PCa). Questions persist regarding long-term outcomes and the optimal approach to AS.

OBJECTIVE

To determine survival and metastatic outcomes in AS patients. Secondary objectives were to measure the cumulative incidence and association of patient-level factors on biopsy grade reclassification.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A prospective, active, open-enrollment cohort study was conducted from 1995 through July 2018 at a tertiary-care academic institution. Patients with very-low-risk or low-risk PCa were enrolled.

INTERVENTION

AS with semiannual prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and digital rectal examination, serial prostate biopsy, and multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI).

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

The 10- and 15-yr cumulative incidences of primary and secondary outcomes were determined.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

Overall, 1818 men were monitored on AS for a median of 5.0yr (interquartile range 2.0-9.0). There were 88 non-PCa deaths, four PCa deaths, and one additional case of metastasis. The cumulative incidence of PCa-specific mortality or metastasis was 0.1% (95% confidence interval, 0.04-0.6%) at both 10 and 15yr. The 5-, 10-, and 15-yr cumulative incidences of biopsy grade reclassification were 21%, 30%, and 32%, respectively. On multivariable analysis, biopsy grade reclassification was associated with older age, African-American race, PSA density, and increased cancer volume on biopsy, and men who underwent mpMRI prior to enrollment were less likely to undergo grade reclassification. Our selection and monitoring are more stringent than many other contemporary AS programs.

CONCLUSIONS

In a large, single-institution, prospective AS cohort, the risk of cancer death or metastasis was <1% over long-term follow-up. Consistent with clinical guidelines, these data support the use of AS for the management of most men diagnosed with GG1 PCa.

PATIENT SUMMARY

This study investigated long-term outcomes in patients with grade group 1 prostate cancer managed with active surveillance (AS). Ten years after enrolling in AS, the risk of metastasis or death from prostate cancer was <1%, while 48% of men switched to treatment. Patients who underwent multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI)/ultrasound-fusion targeted biopsy prior to enrollment were less likely to experience biopsy grade reclassification during follow-up, suggesting a role for mpMRI as part of a comprehensive risk assessment to confirm AS eligibility. These findings support the safety of AS in most men with grade group 1 prostate cancer, but specific outcomes may differ in programs with less intensive monitoring.

Prostate Health Index density improves detection of clinically significant prostate cancer

OBJECTIVES

To explore the utility of Prostate Health Index (PHI) density for the detection of clinically significant prostate cancer (PCa) in a contemporary cohort of men presenting for diagnostic evaluation of PCa.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The study cohort included patients with elevated prostate-specific antigen (PSA; >2 ng/mL) and negative digital rectal examination who underwent PHI testing and prostate biopsy at our institution in 2015. Serum markers were prospectively measured per standard clinical pathway. PHI was calculated as ([{-2}proPSA/free PSA] × [PSA]^½ ), and density calculations were performed using prostate volume as determined by transrectal ultrasonography. Logistic regression was used to assess the ability of serum markers to predict clinically significant PCa, defined as any Gleason score ≥7 cancer or Gleason score 6 cancer in >2 cores or >50% of any positive core.

RESULTS

Of 118 men with PHI testing who underwent biopsy, 47 (39.8%) were found to have clinically significant PCa on biopsy. The median (interquartile range [IQR]) PHI density was 0.70 (0.43-1.21), and was 0.53 (0.36-0.75) in men with negative biopsy or clinically insignificant PCa and 1.21 (0.74-1.88) in men with clinically significant PCa (P < 0.001). Clinically significant PCa was detected in 3.6% of men in the first quartile of PHI density (<0.43), 36.7% of men in the IQR of PHI density (0.43-1.21), and 80.0% of men with PHI density >1.21 (P < 0.001). Using a threshold of 0.43, PHI density was 97.9% sensitive and 38.0% specific for clinically significant PCa, and 100% sensitive for Gleason score ≥7 disease. Compared with PSA (area under the curve [AUC] 0.52), PSA density (AUC 0.70), %free PSA (AUC 0.75), the product of %free PSA and prostate volume (AUC 0.79), and PHI (AUC 0.76), PHI density had the highest discriminative ability for clinically significant PCa (AUC 0.84).

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the present prospective single-centre experience, PHI density could be used to avoid 38% of unnecessary biopsies, while failing to detect only 2% of clinically significant cancers.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 mRNA Vaccines Against COVID-19-Associated Hospitalizations Among Immunocompromised Adults During SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Predominance - VISION Network, 10 States, December 2021-August 2022

Persons with moderate-to-severe immunocompromising conditions might have reduced protection after COVID-19 vaccination, compared with persons without immunocompromising conditions (1-3). On August 13, 2021, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended that adults with immunocompromising conditions receive an expanded primary series of 3 doses of an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. ACIP followed with recommendations on September 23, 2021, for a fourth (booster) dose and on September 1, 2022, for a new bivalent mRNA COVID-19 vaccine booster dose, containing components of the BA.4 and BA.5 sublineages of the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant (4). Data on vaccine effectiveness (VE) of monovalent COVID-19 vaccines among persons with immunocompromising conditions since the emergence of the Omicron variant in December 2021 are limited. In the multistate VISION Network,^§ monovalent 2-, 3-, and 4-dose mRNA VE against COVID-19-related hospitalization were estimated among adults with immunocompromising conditions^¶ hospitalized with COVID-19-like illness,** using a test-negative design comparing odds of previous vaccination among persons with a positive or negative molecular test result (case-patients and control-patients) for SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19). During December 16, 2021-August 20, 2022, among SARS-CoV-2 test-positive case-patients, 1,815 (36.3%), 1,387 (27.7%), 1,552 (31.0%), and 251 (5.0%) received 0, 2, 3, and 4 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine doses, respectively. Among test-negative control-patients during this period, 6,928 (23.7%), 7,411 (25.4%), 12,734 (43.6%), and 2,142 (7.3%) received these respective doses. Overall, VE against COVID-19-related hospitalization among adults with immunocompromising conditions hospitalized for COVID-like illness during Omicron predominance was 36% ≥14 days after dose 2, 69% 7-89 days after dose 3, and 44% ≥90 days after dose 3. Restricting the analysis to later periods when Omicron sublineages BA.2/BA.2.12.1 and BA.4/BA.5 were predominant and 3-dose recipients were eligible to receive a fourth dose, VE was 32% ≥90 days after dose 3 and 43% ≥7 days after dose 4. Protection offered by vaccination among persons with immunocompromising conditions during Omicron predominance was moderate even after a 3-dose monovalent primary series or booster dose. Given the incomplete protection against hospitalization afforded by monovalent COVID-19 vaccines, persons with immunocompromising conditions might benefit from updated bivalent vaccine booster doses that target recently circulating Omicron sublineages, in line with ACIP recommendations. Further, additional protective recommendations for persons with immunocompromising conditions, including the use of prophylactic antibody therapy, early access to and use of antivirals, and enhanced nonpharmaceutical interventions such as well-fitting masks or respirators, should also be considered.

Estimation of COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine Effectiveness and COVID-19 Illness and Severity by Vaccination Status During Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 Sublineage Periods

IMPORTANCE

Recent SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant sublineages, including BA.4 and BA.5, may be associated with greater immune evasion and less protection against COVID-19 after vaccination.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) of 2, 3, or 4 doses of COVID-19 mRNA vaccination among immunocompetent adults during a period of BA.4 or BA.5 predominant circulation; and to evaluate the relative severity of COVID-19 in hospitalized patients across Omicron BA.1, BA.2 or BA.2.12.1, and BA.4 or BA.5 sublineage periods.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This test-negative case-control study was conducted in 10 states with data from emergency department (ED) and urgent care (UC) encounters and hospitalizations from December 16, 2021, to August 20, 2022. Participants included adults with COVID-19-like illness and molecular testing for SARS-CoV-2. Data were analyzed from August 2 to September 21, 2022.

EXPOSURES

mRNA COVID-19 vaccination.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The outcomes of interest were COVID-19 ED or UC encounters, hospitalizations, and admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) or in-hospital death. VE associated with protection against medically attended COVID-19 was estimated, stratified by care setting and vaccine doses (2, 3, or 4 doses vs 0 doses as the reference group). Among hospitalized patients with COVID-19, demographic and clinical characteristics and in-hospital outcomes were compared across sublineage periods.

RESULTS

During the BA.4 and BA.5 predominant period, there were 82 229 eligible ED and UC encounters among patients with COVID-19-like illness (median [IQR] age, 51 [33-70] years; 49 682 [60.4%] female patients), and 19 114 patients (23.2%) had test results positive for SARS-CoV-2; among 21 007 hospitalized patients (median [IQR] age, 71 [58-81] years; 11 209 [53.4%] female patients), 3583 (17.1 %) had test results positive for SARS-CoV-2. Estimated VE against hospitalization was 25% (95% CI, 17%-32%) for receipt of 2 vaccine doses at 150 days or more after receipt, 68% (95% CI, 50%-80%) for a third dose 7 to 119 days after receipt, and 36% (95% CI, 29%-42%) for a third dose 120 days or more (median [IQR], 235 [204-262] days) after receipt. Among patients aged 65 years or older who had received a fourth vaccine dose, VE was 66% (95% CI, 53%-75%) at 7 to 59 days after vaccination and 57% (95% CI, 44%-66%) at 60 days or more (median [IQR], 88 [75-105] days) after vaccination. Among hospitalized patients with COVID-19, ICU admission or in-hospital death occurred in 21.4% of patients during the BA.1 period vs 14.7% during the BA.4 and BA.5 period (standardized mean difference: 0.17).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this case-control study of COVID-19 vaccines and illness, VE associated with protection against medically attended COVID-19 illness was lower with increasing time since last dose; estimated VE was higher after receipt of 1 or 2 booster doses compared with a primary series alone.

A comprehensive evaluation of CHEK2 germline mutations in men with prostate cancer

BACKGROUND

Germline mutations in CHEK2 have been associated with prostate cancer (PCa) risk. Our objective is to examine whether germline pathogenic CHEK2 mutations can differentiate risk of lethal from indolent PCa.

METHODS

A case-case study of 703 lethal PCa patients and 1455 patients with low-risk localized PCa of European, African, and Chinese origin was performed. Germline DNA samples from these patients were sequenced for CHEK2. Mutation carrier rates and their association with lethal PCa were analyzed using the Fisher exact test and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis.

RESULTS

In the entire study population, 40 (1.85%) patients were identified as carrying one of 15 different germline CHEK2 pathogenic or likely pathogenic mutations. CHEK2 mutations were detected in 16 (2.28%) of 703 lethal PCa patients compared with 24 (1.65%) of 1455 low-risk PCa patients (P = 0.31). No association was found between CHEK2 mutation status and early-diagnosis or PCa-specific survival time. However, the most common mutation in CHEK2, c.1100delC (p.T367 fs), had a significantly higher carrier rate (1.28%) in lethal PCa patients than low-risk PCa patients of European American origin (0.16%), P = 0.0038. The estimated Odds Ratio of this mutation for lethal PCa was 7.86. The carrier rate in lethal PCa was also significantly higher than that (0.46%) in 32 461 non-Finnish European subjects from the Exome Aggregation Consortium (ExAC) (P = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

While overall CHEK2 mutations were not significantly more common in men with lethal compared to low-risk PCa, the specific CHEK2 mutation, c.1100delC, appears to contribute to an increased risk of lethal PCa in European American men.

Effectiveness of Homologous and Heterologous COVID-19 Booster Doses Following 1 Ad.26.COV2.S (Janssen [Johnson & Johnson]) Vaccine Dose Against COVID-19-Associated Emergency Department and Urgent Care Encounters and Hospitalizations Among Adults - VISION Network, 10 States, December 2021-March 2022

CDC recommends that all persons aged ≥18 years receive a single COVID-19 vaccine booster dose ≥2 months after receipt of an Ad.26.COV2.S (Janssen [Johnson & Johnson]) adenovirus vector-based primary series vaccine; a heterologous COVID-19 mRNA vaccine is preferred over a homologous (matching) Janssen vaccine for booster vaccination. This recommendation was made in light of the risks for rare but serious adverse events following receipt of a Janssen vaccine, including thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome and Guillain-Barré syndrome† (1), and clinical trial data indicating similar or higher neutralizing antibody response following heterologous boosting compared with homologous boosting (2). Data on real-world vaccine effectiveness (VE) of different booster strategies following a primary Janssen vaccine dose are limited, particularly during the period of Omicron variant predominance. The VISION Network§ determined real-world VE of 1 Janssen vaccine dose and 2 alternative booster dose strategies: 1) a homologous booster (i.e., 2 Janssen doses) and 2) a heterologous mRNA booster (i.e., 1 Janssen dose/1 mRNA dose). In addition, VE of these booster strategies was compared with VE of a homologous booster following mRNA primary series vaccination (i.e., 3 mRNA doses). The study examined 80,287 emergency department/urgent care (ED/UC) visits¶ and 25,244 hospitalizations across 10 states during December 16, 2021-March 7, 2022, when Omicron was the predominant circulating variant.** VE against laboratory-confirmed COVID-19-associated ED/UC encounters was 24% after 1 Janssen dose, 54% after 2 Janssen doses, 79% after 1 Janssen/1 mRNA dose, and 83% after 3 mRNA doses. VE for the same vaccination strategies against laboratory-confirmed COVID-19-associated hospitalizations were 31%, 67%, 78%, and 90%, respectively. All booster strategies provided higher protection than a single Janssen dose against ED/UC visits and hospitalizations during Omicron variant predominance. Vaccination with 1 Janssen/1 mRNA dose provided higher protection than did 2 Janssen doses against COVID-19-associated ED/UC visits and was comparable to protection provided by 3 mRNA doses during the first 120 days after a booster dose. However, 3 mRNA doses provided higher protection against COVID-19-associated hospitalizations than did other booster strategies during the same time interval since booster dose. All adults who have received mRNA vaccines for their COVID-19 primary series vaccination should receive an mRNA booster dose when eligible. Adults who received a primary Janssen vaccine dose should preferentially receive a heterologous mRNA vaccine booster dose ≥2 months later, or a homologous Janssen vaccine booster dose if mRNA vaccine is contraindicated or unavailable. Further investigation of the durability of protection afforded by different booster strategies is warranted.

Conditional probability of reclassification in an active surveillance program for prostate cancer

PURPOSE

We evaluated the risk of prostate cancer reclassification by time on active surveillance.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

From 1995 to 2014 we evaluated 557 and 251 men at very low and at low risk, respectively, who were on active surveillance and compliant with prostate biopsies. Our primary study outcome was reclassification to higher risk disease by grade or extent. Freedom from reclassification was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier approach with adjustment for covariates using the Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

Within the first 2 years of surveillance patient survival free of reclassification by grade (p = 0.20) and by any biopsy criteria (p = 0.25) was similar in men with very low and low risk disease. After 2 years men with low risk disease were 2.4 times more likely to be diagnosed with a Gleason score of greater than 6 than men with very low risk disease (p = 0.002, HR 2.4, 95% CI 1.9-3.5). Additionally, beyond 2 years on surveillance the risk of lifetime reclassification by grade and by any criteria decreased by 30% and 35% (each p <0.0001, HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.60-0.76 and HR 0.65, 95% CI 0.57-0.72, respectively) with each biopsy that showed no reclassification.

CONCLUSIONS

The reclassification rate during surveillance is not equally distributed across time or risk groups. Due to misclassification at diagnosis the reclassification rate in very low and low risk groups is similar in the first 2 years but differs significantly beyond 2 years. The risk of reclassification decreases with time for each nonreclassifying biopsy beyond 2 years.

Prostate Health Index and multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging to predict prostate cancer grade reclassification in active surveillance

OBJECTIVE

To identify the value of combining the Prostate Health Index (PHI) and multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI), tools which have previously been shown to be independently predictive of prostate cancer (PCa) grade reclassification (GR; Gleason score >6), for the purpose of predicting GR at the next surveillance biopsy to reduce unnecessary prostate biopsies for men in PCa active surveillance (AS).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Between 2014 and 2019, we retrospectively identified 253 consecutive men in the Johns Hopkins AS programme who had mpMRI and PHI followed by a systematic ± targeted biopsy. PHI and PHI density (PHID) were evaluated across Prostate Imaging-Reporting and Data System version 2.0 (PI-RADSv2) scores and compared to those with and without GR. Next, the negative predictive value (NPV) and area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) were calculated to compare the diagnostic value of PI-RADSv2 score combined with PHI, PHID, or prostate-specific antigen density (PSAD) for GR using their respective first quartile as a cut-off.

RESULTS

Of the 253 men, 38 men (15%) had GR. Men with GR had higher PHI values (40.7 vs 32.0, P = 0.001), PHID (0.83 vs 0.57, P = 0.007), and PSAD (0.12 vs 0.10, P = 0.037). A PI-RADSv2 ≤3 alone had a NPV of 91.6% for GR (AUC 0.67). Using a PHI cut-off of 25.6 in addition to PI-RADSv2 ≤3, the NPV and AUC were both increased to 98% and 0.70, respectively. Using a PSAD cut-off of 0.07 ng/mL/mL with PI-RADSv2 had an AUC of 0.69 and NPV of 95.4%. PHI and PI-RADSv2 together could have avoided 20% of biopsies at the cost of missing 2.6% of GRs.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of PHI and mpMRI can aid in the prediction of GR in men on AS and may be useful for decreasing the burden of surveillance prostate biopsies.

Genetic Factors Associated with Prostate Cancer Conversion from Active Surveillance to Treatment

Men diagnosed with low-risk prostate cancer (PC) are increasingly electing active surveillance (AS) as their initial management strategy. While this may reduce the side effects of treatment for prostate cancer, many men on AS eventually convert to active treatment. PC is one of the most heritable cancers, and genetic factors that predispose to aggressive tumors may help distinguish men who are more likely to discontinue AS. To investigate this, we undertook a multi-institutional genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 5,222 PC patients and 1,139 other patients from replication cohorts, all of whom initially elected AS and were followed over time for the potential outcome of conversion from AS to active treatment. In the GWAS we detected 18 variants associated with conversion, 15 of which were not previously associated with PC risk. With a transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS), we found two genes associated with conversion (MAST3, p = 6.9×10-7 and GAB2, p = 2.0×10-6). Moreover, increasing values of a previously validated 269-variant genetic risk score (GRS) for PC was positively associated with conversion (e.g., comparing the highest to the two middle deciles gave a hazard ratio [HR] = 1.13; 95% Confidence Interval [CI]= 0.94-1.36); whereas, decreasing values of a 36-variant GRS for prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels were positively associated with conversion (e.g., comparing the lowest to the two middle deciles gave a HR = 1.25; 95% CI, 1.04-1.50). These results suggest that germline genetics may help inform and individualize the decision of AS-or the intensity of monitoring on AS-versus treatment for the initial management of patients with low-risk PC.

PTEN status assessment in the Johns Hopkins active surveillance cohort

BACKGROUND

Up to half of men with Gleason score 6 (GS6) prostate cancers initially managed with active surveillance (AS) will eventually require definitive therapy, usually due to tumor grade reclassification during follow-up. We examined the association between PTEN status on biopsy and subsequent clinicopathologic outcomes in men with GS6 cancers who enrolled in AS.

METHODS

We performed a case-control study of men enrolled in the Johns Hopkins AS cohort with diagnostic biopsy tissue available for immunohistochemical (IHC) staining. IHC was performed for PTEN using genetically validated protocols for all patients. Cases included men who underwent grade reclassification to GS ≥ 3 + 4 = 7 on biopsy within 2 years of follow-up (i.e., early reclassification) or reclassification to GS ≥ 4 + 3 = 7 on biopsy or radical prostatectomy during follow-up (i.e., extreme reclassification). Control patients were diagnosed with GS6 cancer and monitored on AS for at least 8 years without undergoing biopsy reclassification.

RESULTS

Among 67 cases with adequate tissue, 31 men underwent early reclassification and 36 men underwent extreme reclassification. Cases were compared to 65 control patients with adequate tissue for assessment. On initial prostate biopsy, cases were older (median age 67 vs. 65, p = 0.024) and were less likely to meet very-low-risk criteria (64 vs 79%, p = 0.042) as compared to controls. Although not statistically significant, PTEN loss was observed in only 1 (1.5%) of 65 controls as compared to 6 (9%) of 67 cases (p = 0.062).

CONCLUSIONS

PTEN loss was rare among men with GS6 prostate cancer enrolled in AS at Johns Hopkins. Despite this, PTEN loss was more frequent among men who underwent early or extreme reclassification to higher-grade cancer as compared to controls. Additional studies in larger low-risk cohorts may better elucidate a potential role for PTEN in selecting patients for AS.

Association of prostate cancer polygenic risk score with number and laterality of tumor cores in active surveillance patients

BACKGROUND

Prostate cancer (PCa) is characterized by its tendency to be multifocal. However, few studies have investigated the endogenous factors that explain the multifocal disease. The primary objective of the current study is to test whether inherited PCa risk is associated with multifocal tumors in PCa patients.

METHODS

Subjects in this study were PCa patients of European ancestry undergoing active surveillance at Johns Hopkins Hospital (N = 805) and NorthShore University HealthSystem (N = 432). The inherited risk was measured by genetic risk score (GRS), an odds ratio-weighted and population-standardized polygenic risk score based on known risk-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms. PCa multifocality was indirectly measured by the number and laterality of positive tumor cores from a 12-core systematic biopsy.

RESULTS

In the combined cohort, 35.7% and 66.3% of patients had ≥2 tumor cores at the initial diagnostic biopsy and on at least one subsequent surveillance biopsy, respectively. For tumor laterality, 7.8% and 47.8% of patients had bilateral tumor cores at diagnostic and surveillance biopsies, respectively. We found, for the first time, that patients with higher numbers of positive cores at diagnostic and surveillance biopsies, respectively, had significantly higher mean GRS values; p = .01 and p = 5.94E-04. Additionally, patients with bilateral tumors at diagnostic and surveillance biopsies, respectively, had significantly higher mean GRS values than those with unilateral tumors; p = .04 and p = .01. In contrast, no association was found between GRS and maximum core length of tumor or tumor grade at diagnostic/surveillance biopsies (all p > .05). Finally, we observed a modest trend that patients with higher GRS quartiles had a higher risk for tumor upgrading on surveillance biopsies. The trend, however, was not statistically significant (p > .05).

CONCLUSIONS

The associations of GRS with two measurements of PCa multifocality (core numbers and laterality) provide novel and consistent evidence for the link between inherited PCa risk and multifocal tumors.

Effectiveness of two and three mRNA COVID-19 vaccine doses against Omicron- and Delta-Related outpatient illness among adults, October 2021-February 2022

Background

We estimated SARS-CoV-2 Delta- and Omicron-specific effectiveness of two and three mRNA COVID-19 vaccine doses in adults against symptomatic illness in US outpatient settings.

Methods

Between October 1, 2021, and February 12, 2022, research staff consented and enrolled eligible participants who had fever, cough, or loss of taste or smell and sought outpatient medical care or clinical SARS-CoV-2 testing within 10 days of illness onset. Using the test-negative design, we compared the odds of receiving two or three mRNA COVID-19 vaccine doses among SARS-CoV-2 cases versus controls using logistic regression. Regression models were adjusted for study site, age, onset week, and prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) was calculated as (1 - adjusted odds ratio) × 100%.

Results

Among 3847 participants included for analysis, 574 (32%) of 1775 tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during the Delta predominant period and 1006 (56%) of 1794 participants tested positive during the Omicron predominant period. When Delta predominated, VE against symptomatic illness in outpatient settings was 63% (95% CI: 51% to 72%) among mRNA two-dose recipients and 96% (95% CI: 93% to 98%) for three-dose recipients. When Omicron predominated, VE was 21% (95% CI: -6% to 41%) among two-dose recipients and 62% (95% CI: 48% to 72%) among three-dose recipients.

Conclusions

In this adult population, three mRNA COVID-19 vaccine doses provided substantial protection against symptomatic illness in outpatient settings when the Omicron variant became the predominant cause of COVID-19 in the United States. These findings support the recommendation for a third mRNA COVID-19 vaccine dose.

Intermediate and longer-term outcomes from a prospective active-surveillance program for favorable-risk prostate cancer. Tosoian JJ, Mamawala M, Epstein JI, Landis P, Wolf S, Trock BJ, Carter HB.J Clin Oncol. 2015 Oct 20;33(30):3379-85. [Epub 2015 Aug 31]. doi: 10.1200/JCO.2015.62.5764

PURPOSE

To assess long-term outcomes of men with favorable-risk prostate cancer in a prospective, active surveillance program.

METHODS

Curative intervention was recommended for disease reclassification to higher cancer grade or volume on prostate biopsy. Primary outcomes were overall, cancer-specific, and metastasis-free survival. Secondary outcomes were the cumulative incidence of reclassification and curative intervention. Factors associated with grade reclassification and curative intervention were evaluated in a Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

A total of 1,298 men (median age = 66y) with a median follow-up of 5 years (range: 0.01-18.00y) contributed 6,766 person-years of follow-up since 1995. Overall, cancer-specific, and metastasis-free survival rates were 93%, 99.9%, and 99.4%, respectively, at 10 years and 69%, 99.9%, and 99.4%, respectively, at 15 years. The cumulative incidence of grade reclassification was 26% at 10 years and was 31% at 15 years; cumulative incidence of curative intervention was 50% at 10 years and was 57% at 15 years. The median treatment-free survival was 8.5 years (range: 0.01-18y). Factors associated with grade reclassification were older age (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.03 for each additional year; 95% CI: 1.01-1.06), prostate-specific antigen density (HR = 1.21 per 0.1 unit increase; 95% CI: 1.12-1.46), and greater number of positive biopsy cores (HR = 1.47 for each additional positive core; 95% CI: 1.26-1.69). Factors associated with intervention were prostate-specific antigen density (HR = 1.38 per 0.1 unit increase; 95% CI: 1.22-1.56) and a greater number of positive biopsy cores (HR = 1.35 for one additional positive core; 95% CI: 1.19-1.53).

CONCLUSION

Men with favorable-risk prostate cancer should be informed of the low likelihood of harm from their diagnosis and should be encouraged to consider surveillance rather than curative intervention.

Clinical Epidemiology and Risk Factors for Critical Outcomes Among Vaccinated and Unvaccinated Adults Hospitalized With COVID-19-VISION Network, 10 States, June 2021-March 2023

BACKGROUND

The epidemiology of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to develop with emerging variants, expanding population-level immunity, and advances in clinical care. We describe changes in the clinical epidemiology of COVID-19 hospitalizations and risk factors for critical outcomes over time.

METHODS

We included adults aged ≥18 years from 10 states hospitalized with COVID-19 June 2021-March 2023. We evaluated changes in demographics, clinical characteristics, and critical outcomes (intensive care unit admission and/or death) and evaluated critical outcomes risk factors (risk ratios [RRs]), stratified by COVID-19 vaccination status.

RESULTS

A total of 60 488 COVID-19-associated hospitalizations were included in the analysis. Among those hospitalized, median age increased from 60 to 75 years, proportion vaccinated increased from 18.2% to 70.1%, and critical outcomes declined from 24.8% to 19.4% (all P < .001) between the Delta (June-December, 2021) and post-BA.4/BA.5 (September 2022-March 2023) periods. Hospitalization events with critical outcomes had a higher proportion of ≥4 categories of medical condition categories assessed (32.8%) compared to all hospitalizations (23.0%). Critical outcome risk factors were similar for unvaccinated and vaccinated populations; presence of ≥4 medical condition categories was most strongly associated with risk of critical outcomes regardless of vaccine status (unvaccinated: adjusted RR, 2.27 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 2.14-2.41]; vaccinated: adjusted RR, 1.73 [95% CI, 1.56-1.92]) across periods.

CONCLUSIONS

The proportion of adults hospitalized with COVID-19 who experienced critical outcomes decreased with time, and median patient age increased with time. Multimorbidity was most strongly associated with critical outcomes.

Prostate Cancer Radiological Estimation of Change in Sequential Evaluation (PRECISE) Magnetic Resonance Imaging Scoring to Predict Clinical Outcomes in Active Surveillance for Grade Group 1 Prostate Cancer

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether radiological change on serial multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging scored using the Prostate Cancer Radiological Estimation of Change in Sequential Evaluation (PRECISE) Scoring system predicts grade reclassification (GR) at surveillance biopsy in men on active surveillance (AS) with Grade Group 1 (GG1) prostate cancer (PCa).

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed records of 255 men with low-risk PCa on AS with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-informed diagnostic and confirmatory biopsies and studied the subset who had surveillance biopsies (n = 163) within 6months of an interval MRI.

RESULTS

We studied 309 PRECISE scores in 255 men. 14% demonstrated radiological progression (PRECISE 4-5) on interval MRI performed within 24months, compared to 34% of those whose interval MRI was performed at a >3-year interval (P = .002). 28% (46/163) of men undergoing surveillance biopsy experienced GR to ≥ GG2 PCa. There was no significant increase in the rate of GR with increasing PRECISE score (PRECISE 1-2: 24%, PRECISE 3: 23%, PRECISE 4-5: 38%; P = .11). There was a significant increase in the rate of GR with increasing PI-RADS score (P < .05). On multivariable analysis, a PI-RADS score of 4-5 was significantly associated with GR compared to men who had a highest PI-RADS ≤3 (OR=1.98 [95% CI: 1.45-3.09, P = .01]).

CONCLUSION

In a low-risk AS cohort with limited follow-up, a patient's highest PI-RADS rather than their PRECISE score on interval MRI was predictive of GR on surveillance biopsy.

Protection of 2 and 3 mRNA Vaccine Doses Against Severe Outcomes Among Adults Hospitalized with COVID-19 – VISION Network, August 2021 – March 2022

Background

We assessed COVID-19 vaccination impact on illness severity among adults hospitalized with COVID-19 August 2021–March 2022.

Methods

We evaluated differences in intensive care unit (ICU) admission, in-hospital death, and length of stay among vaccinated (2 or 3 mRNA vaccine doses) versus unvaccinated patients aged ≥18 years hospitalized for ≥24 hours with COVID-19-like illness (CLI) and positive SARS-CoV-2 molecular testing. We calculated odds ratios for ICU admission and death and subdistribution hazard ratios (SHR) for time to hospital discharge adjusted for age, geographic region, calendar time, and local virus circulation.

Results

We included 27,149 SARS-CoV-2 positive hospitalizations. During both Delta and Omicron-predominant periods, protection against ICU admission was strongest among 3-dose vaccinees compared with unvaccinated patients (Delta OR [CI]: 0.52 [0.28–0.96]); Omicron OR [CI]: 0.69 [0.54–0.87]). During both periods, risk of in-hospital of death was lower among vaccinated compared with unvaccinated but ORs were overlapping; during Omicron, lowest among 3-dose vaccinees (OR [CI] 0.39 [0.28–0.54]). We observed SHR &gt;1 across all vaccination strata in both periods indicating faster discharge for vaccinated patients.

Conclusions

COVID-19 vaccination was associated with lower rates of ICU admission and in-hospital death in both Delta and Omicron periods compared with being unvaccinated.

Number needed to vaccinate with a COVID-19 booster to prevent a COVID-19-associated hospitalization during SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 variant predominance, December 2021-February 2022, VISION Network: a retrospective cohort study

Background

Understanding the usefulness of additional COVID-19 vaccine doses-particularly given varying disease incidence-is needed to support public health policy. We characterize the benefits of COVID-19 booster doses using number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-associated hospitalization or emergency department encounter.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of immunocompetent adults at five health systems in four U.S. states during SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 predominance (December 2021-February 2022). Included patients completed a primary mRNA COVID-19 vaccine series and were either eligible to or received a booster dose. NNV were estimated using hazard ratios for each outcome (hospitalization and emergency department encounters), with results stratified by three 25-day periods and site.

Findings

1,285,032 patients contributed 938 hospitalizations and 2076 emergency department encounters. 555,729 (43.2%) patients were aged 18-49 years, 363,299 (28.3%) 50-64 years, and 366,004 (28.5%) ≥65 years. Most patients were female (n = 765,728, 59.6%), White (n = 990,224, 77.1%), and non-Hispanic (n = 1,063,964, 82.8%). 37.2% of patients received a booster and 62.8% received only two doses. Median estimated NNV to prevent one hospitalization was 205 (range 44-615) and NNV was lower across study periods for adults aged ≥65 years (110, 46, and 88, respectively) and those with underlying medical conditions (163, 69, and 131, respectively). Median estimated NNV to prevent one emergency department encounter was 156 (range 75-592).

Interpretation

The number of patients needed to receive a booster dose was highly dependent on local disease incidence, outcome severity, and patient risk factors for moderate-to-severe disease.

Funding

Funding was provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention though contract 75D30120C07986 to Westat, Inc. and contract 75D30120C07765 to Kaiser Foundation Hospitals.