Comparison of endoscopic ultrasound and computed tomography in the assessment of pancreatic cyst size using pathology as the gold standard

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Accurate assessment of whether a cyst is greater than 3 cm is an essential component when considering resection especially for mucinous lesions. The most accurate method of assessing cyst size is uncertain with many patients undergoing several complimentary imaging modalities. This study aimed to compare the accuracy of endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) with CT scanning in assessing pancreatic cyst size compared to histology.

METHODS

Patients referred for EUS of a pancreatic cystic lesion from April 2003 to August 2011. Patient age and gender, lesion size and site were recorded and compared using cyst size at histology compared to EUS and CT recorded within 3 months of surgery. Subgroup analysis was performed with respect to cyst site and proven mucinous lesions.

RESULTS

357 patients were included of which 70 (mean age 60.6 years, 24 males) had undergone surgical resection. The resected cysts were located 30/17/23 in the head/body/tail of the pancreas. Median size at histology was 32 mm compared to 35 mm at EUS (p = 0.47) and 35 mm at CT (p = 0.52). For mucinous lesions alone, median size at histology was 32 mm compared to 33 mm at EUS (p = 0.46) and 35 mm at CT (p = 0.39). EUS and CT had comparable sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, positive predictive value and accuracy for all cyst types and locations.

CONCLUSIONS

CT and EUS measurements are not significantly different to pathological size following resection of pancreatic cystic lesions. CT and EUS are interchangeable investigations for determining cyst size pre-operatively although EUS has the additional advantage of fluid sampling.

Developing a prognostic model for 90-day mortality after liver transplantation based on pretransplant recipient factors

BACKGROUND

Current statistical prognostic models for mortality after liver transplantation do not have good discriminatory ability. Furthermore, the methodology used to develop these models is often flawed. The objective of this paper is to develop a prognostic model for 90-day mortality after liver transplantation based on pretransplant recipient factors, employing a rigorous model development method.

METHODS

We used data on 4,829 patient that were prospectively collected for the UK & Ireland Liver Transplant Audit. Switching regression was employed to impute missing values combined with a bootstrapping approach for variable selection.

RESULTS

In all, 452 patients (9.4%) died within 90 days of their transplantation. The final prognostic model was well calibrated and discriminated moderately well between patients who did and who did not die (c-statistic 0.65, 95% CI [0.63, 0.68]). Although discrimination was not excellent overall, the results showed that those patients with a "low" chance of dying within 90 days of their transplant and those with a "high" chance of dying could be differentiated from patients with a "intermediate" chance.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model can provide transplant candidates with predictions of their early posttransplantation prospects before any donor information is known, which is essential information for patients with end-stage liver disease for whom liver transplantation is a treatment option.