Projecting Burden of Dementia in Spain, 2010-2050: Impact of Modifying Risk Factors

Risk and protective factors such as obesity, hypercholesterolemia, physical activity, and hypertension can play a role in the development of dementia. Our objective was to measure the effect of modification of risk and protective factors on the prevalence and economic burden of dementia in the aging Spanish population during 2010-2050. A discrete event simulation model including risk and protective factors according to CAIDE (Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging and Incidence of Dementia) Risk Score was built to represent the natural history of dementia. Prevalence of dementia was calculated from 2010 to 2050 according to different scenarios of risk factor prevalence to assess the annual social and health care costs of dementia. The model also supplied hazard ratios for dementia. Aging will increase between 49% and 16% each decade in the number of subjects with dementia. The number of working-age individuals per person with dementia will decrease to a quarter by 2050. An intervention leading to a 20% change in risk and protective factors would reduce dementia by 9% , prevent over 100,000 cases, and save nearly 4,900 million euros in 2050. Switching individuals from a group with a specific risk factor to one without it nearly halved the risk of the development of dementia. Dementia prevalence will grow unmanageable if effective prevention strategies are not developed. Interventions aiming to reduce modifiable risk factor prevalence represent valid and effective alternatives to reduce dementia burden. However, further research is needed to identify causal relationships between dementia and risk factors.

Regional variability in changes in the incidence of hip fracture in the Spanish population (2000-2012)

The objective is to analyse the evolution of the incidence of hip fracture in the female population of Spain from 2000 to 2012 and to establish the possible changes which may have been seen over this period of time, including the trends in the different regions of the country.

INTRODUCTION

Fragility-related hip fractures are considered to be the fractures of greatest significance to public health due to their high degree of morbidity and mortality. The change in their incidence, both in absolute values and when adjusted for age, is the subject of debate. The objective of this article is to describe the changes in the rates of hip fracture in Spain by autonomous community between the years 2000 and 2012.

METHODS

Using the data from the Spanish Minimum Basic Data Set, in which are all the recorded cases of women with a principal diagnosis of hip fracture, the incidence rates by age group and by autonomous community were obtained. Poisson distribution or negative binomial regressions were carried out to estimate the average annual change over the time period analysed.

RESULTS

There have been statistically significant changes in the trends of rates of incidence for all age groups of women over 65 years of age. The annual reduction was 2.2% for women of 65-74 years of age and less for those between 75 and 84. The rates of incidence for those over 85 increased annually by 0.58%.

CONCLUSIONS

Hip fractures continue to increase in absolute numbers, although if the rates are adjusted for age, a downward trend is seen in certain age groups. These findings have various origins, although in the absence of great changes in population structure, we believe that drug treatments for osteoporosis may play a role. There is variability in the change in incidence of hip fractures in different parts of the country. Further studies are required to be able to identify the causes.

Evaluation of the colorectal cancer screening Programme in the Basque Country (Spain) and its effectiveness based on the Miscan-colon model

Abstract

The population-based Basque Colorectal Cancer (CRC) Screening Programme started in 2009 with a biennial immunochemical quantitative test (FIT) biennial and colonoscopy under sedation in positive cases. The population target of 586,700 residents was from 50 to 69 years old and the total coverage was reached at the beginning of 2014. The aim of our study was to determine possible scenarios in terms of incidence, mortality and reduction of Life-years-Lost (L-y-L) in the medium and long term of CRC.

Methods

Invitations were sent out by the Programme from 2009 to 2014, with combined organizational strategies. Simulation was done by MISCAN-colon (Microsimulation Screening Analysis) over 30 years comparing the results of screening vs no-screening, taking the population-based Cancer Registry into account. Lifetime population and real data from the Programme were used from 2008 to 2012. The model was run differentially for men and women.

Results

924,416 invitations were sent out from 2009 to 2014. The average participation rate was 68.4%, CRC detection rate was 3.4% and the Advanced Adenoma detection rate was 24.0‰, with differences observed in sex and age. Future scenarios showed a higher decrease of incidence (17.2% vs 14.7%), mortality (28.1% vs 22.4%) and L-y-L (22.6% vs 18.4%) in men than women in 2030.

Conclusions

The Basque Country CRC Programme results are aligned to its strategy and comparable to other programmes. MISCAN model was found to be a useful tool to predict the benefits of the programme in the future. The effectiveness of the Programme has not been formally established as case control studies are required to determine long term benefits from the screening strategy.

Cost-effectiveness and budget impact analyses of a colorectal cancer screening programme in a high adenoma prevalence scenario using MISCAN-Colon microsimulation model

Background

The Basque Colorectal Cancer Screening Programme began in 2009 and the implementation has been complete since 2013. Faecal immunological testing was used for screening in individuals between 50 and 69 years old. Colorectal Cancer in Basque country is characterized by unusual epidemiological features given that Colorectal Cancer incidence is similar to other European countries while adenoma prevalence is higher. The object of our study was to economically evaluate the programme via cost-effectiveness and budget impact analyses with microsimulation models.

Methods

We applied the Microsimulation Screening Analysis (MISCAN)-Colon model to predict trends in Colorectal Cancer incidence and mortality and to quantify the short- and long-term effects and costs of the Basque Colorectal Cancer Screening Programme. The model was calibrated to the Basque demographics in 2008 and age-specific Colorectal Cancer incidence data in the Basque Cancer Registry from 2005 to 2008 before the screening begun. The model was also calibrated to the high adenoma prevalence observed for the Basque population in a previously published study. The multi-cohort approach used in the model included all the cohorts in the programme during 30 years of implementation, with lifetime follow-up. Unit costs were obtained from the Basque Health Service and both cost-effectiveness analysis and budget impact analysis were carried out.

Results

The goodness-of-fit of the model adaptation to observed programme data was evidence of validation. In the cost-effectiveness analysis, the savings from treatment were larger than the added costs due to screening. Thus, the Basque programme was dominant compared to no screening, as life expectancy increased by 29.3 days per person. The savings in the budget analysis appeared 10 years after the complete implementation of the programme. The average annual budget was €73.4 million from year 2023 onwards.

Conclusions

This economic evaluation showed a screening intervention with a major health gain that also produced net savings when a long follow-up was used to capture the late economic benefit. The number of colonoscopies required was high but remain within the capacity of the Basque Health Service. So far in Europe, no other population Colorectal Cancer screening programme has been evaluated by budget impact analysis.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12885-018-4362-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Fitting the epidemiology and neuropathology of the early stages of Alzheimer's disease to prevent dementia

Introduction

Recent research on biomarkers has made possible the diagnosis of pre-dementia and even preclinical Alzheimer’s disease (AD), thus providing the ideal context for prevention. The aim of this study was to investigate the epidemiology of the early stages of AD by fitting neuropathologic and epidemiological data to assess the feasibility of prevention programs.

Methods

The study addressed primarily the construction of a discrete event simulation model of the stages of dementia. Age was included in the mathematical functions to combine the two competitive risks that determine the epidemiology of AD, that is, time to onset of dementia and time until death by other causes. Subsequently, this model was calibrated to reproduce the prevalence of pathological findings associated with AD. The beginning of the preclinical stage was taken to coincide with Thal phase 1 deposition of amyloid-beta. The duration of the prodromal stage, marked by mild cognitive impairment, was based on a 10% annual conversion rate from this level of impairment to dementia. The validation of prevalence figures also permitted estimation of the incidence and duration of preclinical and prodromal stages.

Results

In Spain, half of the nearly 10 million people aged more than 60 years are in the early stages of AD; 35.9% are in a preclinical stage, and up to 14.2% are in a prodromal stage. However, dementia will develop in only 38% of this population. The weighted mean time to dementia was 22.0 years from the start of Thal phase 1 and 9.0 years from the start of phase 2. Results of simulation models showed a lack of correlation between clinical and pathological classifications.

Conclusions

These findings raise questions about the feasibility of drug-based prevention strategies. Currently, screening programs with biomarkers in the early stages of AD cannot be applied to the half of the general population older than 60 years. Hence, intensive research is needed regarding risk factors, so that more affordable strategies may be planned. More efficient criteria are also needed to select those subjects with mild cognitive impairment who have an increased probability of positive screening for biomarkers (prodromal stage).

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13195-014-0079-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Economic evaluation of the breast cancer screening programme in the Basque Country: retrospective cost-effectiveness and budget impact analysis

Background

Breast cancer screening in the Basque Country has shown 20 % reduction of the number of BC deaths and an acceptable overdiagnosis level (4 % of screen detected BC). The aim of this study was to evaluate the breast cancer early detection programme in the Basque Country in terms of retrospective cost-effectiveness and budget impact from 1996 to 2011.

Methods

A discrete event simulation model was built to reproduce the natural history of breast cancer (BC). We estimated for lifetime follow-up the total cost of BC (screening, diagnosis and treatment), as well as quality-adjusted life years (QALY), for women invited to participate in the evaluated programme during the 15-year period in the actual screening scenario and in a hypothetical unscreened scenario. An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was calculated with the use of aggregated costs. Besides, annual costs were considered for budget impact analysis. Both population level and single-cohort analysis were performed. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was applied to assess the impact of parameters uncertainty.

Results

The actual screening programme involved a cost of 1,127 million euros and provided 6.7 million QALYs over the lifetime of the target population, resulting in a gain of 8,666 QALYs for an additional cost of 36.4 million euros, compared with the unscreened scenario. Thus, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was 4,214€/QALY. All the model runs in the probabilistic sensitivity analysis resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio lower than 10,000€/QALY. The screening programme involved an increase of the annual budget of the Basque Health Service by 5.2 million euros from year 2000 onwards.

Conclusions

The BC screening programme in the Basque Country proved to be cost-effective during the evaluated period and determined an affordable budget impact. These results confirm the epidemiological benefits related to the centralised screening system and support the continuation of the programme.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12885-016-2386-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

[Cost of breast cancer treatment by clinical stage in the Basque Country, Spain]

BACKGROUND

The burden of breast cancer is important for the healthcare system. In the context of the evaluation of the breast cancer screening program in the Basque Country it is important to determine the unitary costs related to diagnosis as well as the treatment costs depending on the clinical stage at detection. The main objective was to calculate the total cost and the components of breast cancer (BC) treatment depending on the clinical stage by 2011.

METHODS

The estimated costs include BC diagnosis as so as to initial treatment and follow-up, based on resource consumption and unitary costs of the Basque Health Services. Micro-costing technique was applied based on the clinical guidelines.

RESULTS

Our model showed the estimated loss of productivity due to premature The initial cost was 9.838€ for the stage 0, 17.273€ for stage I, 22.145€ for stage II and 28.776€ for stage III. The follow up annual cost was 172€ for the stage 0, 908€ for stage I, 994€ for stage II and 1.166€ for stage III. The annual cost for stage IV was 17879€.

CONCLUSIONS

Chemotherapy determines the greatest percentage of BC costs. The two main drivers of the total cost of breast cancer are the initial treatment of stages I to III and the cost of stage IV, the latter reaching € 50,061 per patient.

The cost of colorectal cancer according to the TNM stage

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study was to measure the cost of treatment of colorectal cancer in the Basque public health system according to the clinical stage.

METHODS

We retrospectively collected demographic data, clinical data and resource use of a sample of 529 patients. For stagesi toiii the initial and follow-up costs were measured. The calculation of cost for stageiv combined generalized linear models to relate the cost to the duration of follow-up based on parametric survival analysis. Unit costs were obtained from the analytical accounting system of the Basque Health Service.

RESULTS

The sample included 110 patients with stagei, 171 with stageii, 158 with stageiii and 90 with stageiv colorectal cancer. The initial total cost per patient was 8,644€ for stagei, 12,675€ for stageii and 13,034€ for stageiii. The main component was hospitalization cost. Calculated by extrapolation for stageiv mean survival was 1.27years. Its average annual cost was 22,403€, and 24,509€ to death. The total annual cost for colorectal cancer extrapolated to the whole Spanish health system was 623.9million€.

CONCLUSIONS

The economic burden of colorectal cancer is important and should be taken into account in decision-making. The combination of generalized linear models and survival analysis allows estimation of the cost of metastatic stage.

Impact of stratification on the effectiveness of a comprehensive patient-centered strategy for multimorbid patients

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this work was to assess the effectiveness of a population-level patient-centered intervention for multimorbid patients based on risk stratification for case finding in 2014 compared with the baseline scenario in 2012.

DATA SOURCE

Clinical and administrative databases.

STUDY DESIGN

This was an observational cohort study with an intervention group and a historical control group. A propensity score by a genetic matching approach was used to minimize bias. Generalized linear models were used to analyze relationships among variables.

DATA COLLECTION

We included all eligible patients at the beginning of the year and followed them until death or until the follow-up period concluded (end of the year). The control group (2012) totaled 3558 patients, and 4225 patients were in the intervention group (2014).

PRINCIPAL FINDING

A patient-centered strategy based on risk stratification for case finding and the implementation of an integrated program based on new professional roles and an extensive infrastructure of information and communication technologies avoided 9 percent (OR: 0.91, CI: 0.86-0.96) of hospitalizations. However, this effect was not found in nonprioritized groups whose probability of hospitalization increased (OR: 1.19, CI = 1.09-1.30).

CONCLUSIONS

In a before-and-after analysis using propensity score matching, a comprehensive, patient-centered, integrated care intervention was associated with a lower risk of hospital admission among prioritized patients, but not among patients who were not prioritized to receive the intervention.

Incorporating Budget Impact Analysis in the Implementation of Complex Interventions: A Case of an Integrated Intervention for Multimorbid Patients within the CareWell Study

OBJECTIVES

To develop a framework for the management of complex health care interventions within the Deming continuous improvement cycle and to test the framework in the case of an integrated intervention for multimorbid patients in the Basque Country within the CareWell project.

METHODS

Statistical analysis alone, although necessary, may not always represent the practical significance of the intervention. Thus, to ascertain the true economic impact of the intervention, the statistical results can be integrated into the budget impact analysis. The intervention of the case study consisted of a comprehensive approach that integrated new provider roles and new technological infrastructure for multimorbid patients, with the aim of reducing patient decompensations by 10% over 5 years. The study period was 2012 to 2020.

RESULTS

Given the aging of the general population, the conventional scenario predicts an increase of 21% in the health care budget for care of multimorbid patients during the study period. With a successful intervention, this figure should drop to 18%. The statistical analysis, however, showed no significant differences in costs either in primary care or in hospital care between 2012 and 2014. The real costs in 2014 were by far closer to those in the conventional scenario than to the reductions expected in the objective scenario. The present implementation should be reappraised, because the present expenditure did not move closer to the objective budget.

CONCLUSIONS

This work demonstrates the capacity of budget impact analysis to enhance the implementation of complex interventions. Its integration in the context of the continuous improvement cycle is transferable to other contexts in which implementation depth and time are important.

Validity of a computerized population registry of dementia based on clinical databases

INTRODUCTION

The handling of information through digital media allows innovative approaches for identifying cases of dementia through computerized searches within the clinical databases that include systems for coding diagnoses. The aim of this study was to analyze the validity of a dementia registry in Gipuzkoa based on the administrative and clinical databases existing in the Basque Health Service.

METHODS

This is a descriptive study based on the evaluation of available data sources. First, through review of medical records, the diagnostic validity was evaluated in 2 samples of cases identified and not identified as dementia. The sensitivity, specificity and positive and negative predictive value of the diagnosis of dementia were measured. Subsequently, the cases of living dementia in December 31, 2016 were searched in the entire Gipuzkoa population to collect sociodemographic and clinical variables.

RESULTS

The validation samples included 986 cases and 327 no cases. The calculated sensitivity was 80.2% and the specificity was 99.9%. The negative predictive value was 99.4% and positive value was 95.1%. The cases in Gipuzkoa were 10,551, representing 65% of the cases predicted according to the literature. Antipsychotic medication were taken by a 40% and a 25% of the cases were institutionalized.

CONCLUSIONS

A registry of dementias based on clinical and administrative databases is valid and feasible. Its main contribution is to show the dimension of dementia in the health system.

Dementia-related neuropsychiatric symptoms: inequalities in pharmacological treatment and institutionalization

BACKGROUND

Dementia-related neuropsychiatric symptoms (NPS) are the main determinant of family stress and institutionalization of patients. This study aimed to identify inequalities by gender and socioeconomic status in the management of NPS in patients diagnosed with dementia.

METHODS

An observational study was carried out to study all the cases of dementia in the corporate database of the Basque Health Service (29,864 patients). The prescription of antipsychotics and antidepressants and admission to a nursing home were used to establish the presence of NPS. The socioeconomic status of individuals was classified by a deprivation index. Logistic regressions were used to identify drivers for drug prescriptions and institutionalization.

RESULTS

NPS are poorly recorded in the clinical databases (12%). Neuropsychiatric symptoms were severe enough in two thirds of patients with dementia to be treated with psychoactive medication. Institutionalization showed an increase from those who did not receive medication to those who had been prescribed antidepressants (OR: 1.546), antipsychotics (OR: 2.075) or both (OR: 2.741). The resulting inequalities were the increased prescription of antidepressant drugs in women and more nursing-home admissions for women who were the least socioeconomically deprived and men who were the most deprived.

CONCLUSIONS

In large clinical databases, psychoactive drugs prescriptions can be useful to underscore the considerable burden of dementia-related NPS. Specific tools are needed to monitor social and health care programs targeted to dementia-related NPS from a population perspective. Programs aimed at reducing the family burden of care of dementia patients at home become the key elements in reducing inequalities in these patients' care. Socioeconomic status is the most important driver of inequality, and gender inequality may simply be hidden within the social environment. Integrated programs boosting the continuity of care are an objective for which compliance could be measured according to the NPS coding in the electronic health record.

Gender and socioeconomic inequalities in the implementation of the Basque programme for multimorbid patients

Background

The aim of our study was to increase awareness of the relevance of the implemented programmes to inequity of access and inequality of health by analyzing the impact of a patient-centred strategy for multimorbid patients.

Methods

This retrospective study compared the 2014 multimorbid patient group (intervention group) with its 2012 analogue (control group), before the Department of Health of the Basque Country launched the strategy for managing disease chronicity. Inequalities in healthcare access were represented by differences in the inclusion of patients in the programme and in contacts with primary care (PC) services by gender and socioeconomic status (measured by deprivation index by census track). Likewise, differences in hospital care represented inequalities in health outcomes. Generalized linear models were used to analyze relationships among variables. A propensity score by a genetic matching approach was used to minimize possible selection bias.

Results

At baseline, women had less probability of being eligible for the programme. No clear patterns were seen in resource consumption in PC. The probability of hospitalization was higher for men and increased according to socioeconomic status. The implementation of the programme yielded more contacts with PC services in all groups and a reduction in hospitalizations, especially among men and the most socioeconomically deprived patients.

Conclusion

The patient-centred, integrated-care intervention launched by the Department of Health of the Basque Country might have reduced some gender and socioeconomic inequalities in health outcomes, as it avoided more hospitalizations in subgroups that presented with more episodes of decompensation in the reference year.

Economic evaluation of supplementing the diet with Souvenaid in patients with prodromal Alzheimer's disease

Background

The LipiDiDiet trial showed that Souvenaid, a medical food, might delay progression to dementia in prodromal Alzheimer’s disease (AD). The objective of this study was to assess the cost-utility of Souvenaid compared to placebo in patients with prodromal AD under the conditions applied in that trial.

Methods

A discrete event simulation model was developed based on the LipiDiDiet trial and a literature review to assess the cost-utility of Souvenaid from a societal perspective considering direct and indirect costs. For both intervention and control groups, patient trajectories in terms of functional decline on the Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB) scale in LipiDiDiet were reproduced statistically with mixed models by assigning time until events to simulated patients. From the societal perspective, four scenarios were analysed by combining different options for treatment duration and diagnostic test cost. Univariate sensitivity analysis assessed parameter uncertainties.

Results

Validation results at year 2 of disease progression fit with CDR-SB progression in LipiDiDiet. The incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) in the baseline case was €22,743/quality-adjusted life year (QALY). All scenarios rendered an ICUR lower than €25,000/QALY (the societal threshold). Moreover, the treatment option was cost-saving and increased health benefits when diagnostic costs were not considered and treatment was only administered during the prodromal stage.

Conclusions

Treating prodromal AD with Souvenaid is a cost-effective intervention in all scenarios analysed. The LipiDiDiet trial showed a modest improvement in disease course but as the social costs of AD are very high, the intervention was efficient. Assessing small benefits at specific stages of AD is relevant because it is reasonable to expect that no effective, safe and affordable disease-modifying therapies will become available in the short to medium term.

[The impact of patient identification on an integrated program of palliative care in Basque Country]

Objetivo

Evaluar el proceso y el impacto económico de un programa integrado de cuidados paliativos.

Diseño

Estudio transversal comparativo.

Emplazamiento

Organizaciones Sanitarias Integradas Alto Deba y Goierri Alto-Urola, País Vasco.

Participantes

Pacientes fallecidos (oncológicos y no oncológicos) en 2012 (grupo control) y 2015 (grupo intervención) susceptibles de necesitar cuidados paliativos según la estimación mínima de McNamara.

Intervenciones

Identificación de pacientes con el código de cuidados paliativos en atención primaria, uso de rutas asistenciales conjuntas en atención primaria y hospitalaria e impartición de cursos formativos.

Mediciones principales

Cambio en el perfil de uso de recursos del paciente durante sus últimos 3 meses de vida. Se utilizó el genetic matching para evitar sesgos. Mediante análisis univariante se compararon los grupos y mediante regresiones logísticas y modelos lineales generalizados se analizaron las relaciones entre variables.

Resultados

Se identificaron 1.023 pacientes en 2012 y 1.142 en 2015. En 2015 aumentó al doble la probabilidad de ser identificado como paliativo en pacientes oncológicos (19-33%) y no oncológicos (7-16%). La prescripción de opiáceos subió (25-68%) y el fallecimiento en hospital se mantuvo estable. Los contactos por paciente con atención primaria y hospitalización a domicilio aumentaron, mientras que las hospitalizaciones tradicionales disminuyeron. El coste por paciente aumentó un 26%.

Conclusiones

El modelo integrado incrementó la identificación de la población diana. La relación entre variables mostró que la identificación repercutió positivamente en la prescripción de opiáceos, fallecimiento fuera del hospital y extensión a enfermedades no oncológicas. Aunque también disminuyeron los ingresos, el coste aumentó debido al uso de hospitalización a domicilio.

Validity of a computerised population registry of dementia based on clinical databases

INTRODUCTION

The handling of information through digital media allows innovative approaches for identifying cases of dementia through computerised searches within the clinical databases that include systems for coding diagnoses. The aim of this study was to analyse the validity of a dementia registry in Gipuzkoa based on the administrative and clinical databases existing in the Basque Health Service.

METHODS

This is a descriptive study based on the evaluation of available data sources. First, through review of medical records, the diagnostic validity was evaluated in two samples of cases identified and not identified as dementia. The sensitivity, specificity and positive and negative predictive value of the diagnosis of dementia were measured. Subsequently, the cases of living dementia in December 31, 2016 were searched in the entire Gipuzkoa population to collect sociodemographic and clinical variables.

RESULTS

The validation samples included 986 cases and 327 no cases. The calculated sensitivity was 80.2% and the specificity was 99.9%. The negative predictive value was 99.4% and positive value was 95.1%. The cases in Gipuzkoa were 10 551, representing 65% of the cases predicted according to the literature. Antipsychotic medication were taken by a 40% and a 25% of the cases were institutionalised.

CONCLUSIONS

A registry of dementias based on clinical and administrative databases is valid and feasible. Its main contribution is to show the dimension of dementia in the health system.

Health care costs of breast, prostate, colorectal and lung cancer care by clinical stage and cost component

OBJECTIVE

To measure 3-year care costs of breast, prostate, colorectal and lung cancers disaggregated by site and clinical stage.

METHOD

A retrospective observational design was employed to investigate care costs of cases recorded in the Registry of the Basque Country between 2010 and 2015. Data gathered included TNM stage and demographic, clinical and resource use variables. Total costs per patient with stage IV disease were calculated by combining generalized linear models with parametric survival analysis. Unit costs were obtained from the analytical accounting system of the Basque Health Service.

RESULTS

The sample comprised 23,782 cancer cases (7801 colorectal, 5530 breast, 4802 prostate and 5649 lung cancer). The mean 3-year costs per patient with stage I to III disease were €11,323, €13,727, €8,651 and €12,023 for colorectal, breast, prostate and lung cancer, respectively. The most important cost components were surgery and chemotherapy. Total survival-adjusted costs until death for patients with stage IV disease (€27,568, €26,296, €16,151 and €15,931 for breast, colorectal, lung and prostate cancer, respectively) were higher than the 3-year costs for those with earlier-stage disease.

CONCLUSIONS

This study quantitatively shows the pattern of changes in the economic burden of cancer throughout its natural history and the great magnitude of this burden for the health system. The use of indicators based on real-world data from each regional health service would allow cancer care in each region to be tailored to local population needs.

Comorbidity and household income as mediators of gender inequalities in dementia risk: a real-world data population study

BACKGROUND

Low household income (HI), comorbidities and female sex are associated with an increased risk of dementia. The aim of this study was to measure the mediating effect of comorbidity and HI on the excess risk due to gender in relation to the incidence and prevalence of dementia in the general population.

METHODS

A retrospective and observational study using real-world data analysed all people over 60 who were registered with the Basque Health Service in Gipuzkoa. The study measured HI level, the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), age and sex. The prevalence and incidence of dementia were analysed using logistic regression and Poisson regression models, respectively, adjusted by HI, sex, comorbidity and age. We estimated the combined mediation effect of HI and comorbidity on the prevalence of dementia associated with gender.

RESULTS

Of the 221,777 individuals, 3.85% (8,549) had a diagnosis of dementia as of 31 December 2021. Classification by the CCI showed a gradient with 2.90% in CCI 0-1, 10.60% in CCI 2-3 and 18.01% in CCI > 3. Both low HI and gender were associated with a higher crude prevalence of dementia. However, in the CCI-adjusted model, women had an increased risk of dementia, while HI was no longer statistically significant. The incidence analysis produced similar results, although HI was not significant in any model. The CCI was significantly higher for men and for people with low HI. The mediation was statistically significant, and the CCI and HI explained 79% of the gender effect.

CONCLUSIONS

Comorbidity and low HI act as mediators in the increased risk of dementia associated with female sex. Given the difference in the prevalence of comorbidities by HI, individual interventions to control comorbidities could not only prevent dementia but also reduce inequalities, as the risk is greater in the most disadvantaged population.

Disparities by Socioeconomic Status and Diagnosis of Dementia in the Prescribing of Antipsychotics in a Real-World Data Population Over 60 Years of Age

Background

Antipsychotics are widely used in the elderly due to the high prevalence of neuropsychiatric associated with dementia.

Objective

To analyze potential disparities in antipsychotic use in the general population of Gipuzkoa by socioeconomic status (SES) and diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease and related dementia (ADRD) adjusting for somatic and psychiatric comorbidities, age, and sex.

Methods

A retrospective observational study was carried out in all the 221,777 individuals over 60 years of age (Gipuzkoa, Spain) to collect diagnosis of ADRD, the Charlson Comorbidity Index, and psychiatric comorbidities considering all primary, outpatient, emergency and inpatient care episodes and first- and second-generation antipsychotics, and sociodemographic variables, namely, age, sex, SES and living in a nursing home. Logistic regression was used for multivariate statisticalanalysis.

Results

Use of any antipsychotic was greater in women, individuals over 80 years old, living in a nursing home, with a diagnosis of dementia, somatic and psychiatric comorbidities, and low SES. Quetiapine was the most used drug. The likelihood of any antipsychotic use was significantly associated with low SES (odds ratio [OR]: 1.60; confidence interval [CI]: 1.52-1.68), age over 80 years (OR: 1.56; CI: 1.47-1.65), institutionalization (OR: 12.61; CI: 11.64-13.65), diagnosis of dementia (OR: 10.18; CI: 9.55-10.85) and the comorbidities of depression (OR: 3.79; CI: 3.58-4.01) and psychosis (OR: 4.96; CI: 4.64-5.30).

Conclusions

The greater levels of antipsychotic use and institutionalization in people of low SES indicate inequity in the management of neuropsychiatric symptoms. Increasing the offer of non-pharmacological treatments in the health system might help reduce inequity.

Budget impact analysis of the use of Souvenaid in patients with prodromal Alzheimer’s Disease in Spain

Introduction

The effectiveness, safety, and cost-effectiveness of the use of Souvenaid for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) have been previously evidenced. To complete the economic analysis, there is a need to assess whether society can afford it. The objective of this study was to carry out a budget impact analysis of the use of Souvenaid in Spain under the conditions of the LipiDidiet clinical trial from a societal perspective.

Methods

We built a population model that took into account all the cohorts of individuals with AD, their individual progression, and the potential impact of Souvenaid treatment on their trajectories. Patient progression data were obtained from mixed models. The target population was estimated based on the population forecast for 2020–2035 and the incidence of dementia. Individual progression to dementia measured by the Clinical Dementia Rating-Sum of Boxes was reproduced using mixed models. Besides the costs of treatment and diagnosis, direct costs of medical and non-medical care and indirect costs were included.

Results

The epidemiological indicators and the distribution of life expectancy by stages validated the model. From the third year (2022), the differences in the cost of dementia offset the incremental cost of diagnosis and treatment. The costs of dependency reached €500 million/year while those of the intervention were limited to €40 million.

Conclusions

Souvenaid, with modest effectiveness in delaying dementia associated with AD, achieved a positive economic balance between costs and savings. Its use in the treatment of prodromal AD would imply an initial cost that would be ongoing, but this would be offset by savings in the care system for dependency associated with dementia from the third year. These results were based on adopting a societal perspective taking into account the effect of treatment on the use of health, social, and family resources.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13195-022-01111-7.

IPECAD Modeling Workshop 2023 Cross-Comparison Challenge on Cost-Effectiveness Models in Alzheimer's Disease

OBJECTIVES

Decision-analytic models assessing the value of emerging Alzheimer's disease (AD) treatments are challenged by limited evidence on short-term trial outcomes and uncertainty in extrapolating long-term patient-relevant outcomes. To improve understanding and foster transparency and credibility in modeling methods, we cross-compared AD decision models in a hypothetical context of disease-modifying treatment for mild cognitive impairment (MCI) due to AD.

METHODS

A benchmark scenario (US setting) was used with target population MCI due to AD and a set of synthetically generated hypothetical trial efficacy estimates. Treatment costs were excluded. Model predictions (10-year horizon) were assessed and discussed during a 2-day workshop.

RESULTS

Nine modeling groups provided model predictions. Implementation of treatment effectiveness varied across models based on trial efficacy outcome selection (clinical dementia rating - sum of boxes, clinical dementia rating - global, mini-mental state examination, functional activities questionnaire) and analysis method (observed severity transitions, change from baseline, progression hazard ratio, or calibration to these). Predicted mean time in MCI ranged from 2.6 to 5.2 years for control strategy and from 0.1 to 1.0 years for difference between intervention and control strategies. Predicted quality-adjusted life-year gains ranged from 0.0 to 0.6 and incremental costs (excluding treatment costs) from -US$66 897 to US$11 896.

CONCLUSIONS

Trial data can be implemented in different ways across health-economic models leading to large variation in model predictions. We recommend (1) addressing the choice of outcome measure and treatment effectiveness assumptions in sensitivity analysis, (2) a standardized reporting table for model predictions, and (3) exploring the use of registries for future AD treatments measuring long-term disease progression to reduce uncertainty of extrapolating short-term trial results by health-economic models.

Excess healthcare costs of mental disorders in children, adolescents and young adults in the Basque population registry adjusted for socioeconomic status and sex

BACKGROUND

Mental illnesses account for a considerable proportion of the global burden of disease. Economic evaluation of public policies and interventions aimed at mental health is crucial to inform decisions and improve the provision of healthcare services, but experts highlight that nowadays the cost implications of mental illness are not properly quantified. The objective was to measure the costs of excess use of all healthcare services by 1- to 30-year-olds in the Basque population as a function of whether or not they had a mental disorder diagnosis.

METHODS

A real-world data study was used to identify diagnoses of mental disorders and to measure resource use in the Basque Health Service Registry in 2018. Diagnoses were aggregated into eight diagnostic clusters: anxiety, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, conduct disorders, mood disorders, substance use, psychosis and personality disorders, eating disorders, and self-harm. We calculated the costs incurred by each individual by multiplying the resource use by the unit costs. Annual costs for each cluster were compared with those for individuals with no diagnosed mental disorders through entropy balancing and two-part models which adjusted for socioeconomic status (SES).

RESULTS

Of the 609,381 individuals included, 96,671 (15.9%) had ≥ 1 mental disorder diagnosis. The annual cost per person was two-fold higher in the group diagnosed with mental disorders (€699.7) than that with no diagnoses (€274.6). For all clusters, annual excess costs associated with mental disorders were significant. The adjustment also evidenced a social gradient in healthcare costs, individuals with lower SES consuming more resources than those with medium and higher SES across all clusters. Nonetheless, the effect of being diagnosed with a mental disorder had a greater impact on the mean and excess costs than SES.

CONCLUSIONS

Results were consistent in showing that young people with mental disorders place a greater burden on healthcare services. Excess costs were higher for severe mental disorders like self-harm and psychoses, and lower SES individuals incurred, overall, more than twice the costs per person with no diagnoses. A socioeconomic gradient was notable, excess costs being higher in low SES individuals than those with a high-to-medium SES. Differences by sex were also statistically significant but their sizes were smaller than those related to SES.