Lifetime versus 10-year risk of recurrent events in patients with cardiovascular disease: impact of age

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: None.

Introduction

Most risk models for patients with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) calculate short-term risk of recurrent events and death, typically for a duration of 10 years. However, lifetime risk estimates may better support the healthcare professional in selecting patients for intensified preventive treatment (1). Also, a cross-sectional study suggested that communicating lifetime risk to ASCVD patients enhances risk perception and willingness for therapy (2). In the new ESC prevention guideline, however, 10-year risk estimates remain standard for ASCVD patients but the additional use of lifetime risk is recommended for communication in the shared decision-making process (3).

Purpose

We therefore aimed to compare estimates of 10-year with lifetime risk of recurrent ASCVD events or death, stratified by age.

Methods

We pooled individual-level data on risk factors from six large, recent prospective studies (RESPONSE 1 and 2, OPTICARE, EUROASPIRE IV and V and HELIUS). We included Dutch patients aged ≥45 years with a follow-up of ≥6 months after acute coronary syndrome or revascularisation. The SMART-REACH models were used to estimate the difference between 10-year and lifetime risk of recurrent myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death, stratified by age (<55, 55-65, 65-75, ≥75 years).

Results

In 3,230 ASCVD patients (24% women), mean age 61±8 years, at median follow-up 1.1 (IQR 1.0-1.8) years after index event, SMART-REACH 10-year risk was 23±11% versus lifetime 56±11%. (Figure 1) We found a considerable difference between 10-year and lifetime risk in patients aged 45-55 years (18±8% vs. 61±10%). Discrepancies decreased with increasing age, with similar estimates in the highest (75-85) age group. (Figure 2).

Conclusion

Lifetime risk of a limited set of cardiovascular outcomes rather than 10-year risk may provide a more complete estimate of future ASCVD disease burden, as especially in younger patients 10-year risk is usually low, even in the presence of risk factors.

[Trends in emergency admissions in Amsterdam. Fifteen years of emergency psychiatry in an increasingly crowded city]

The Temporary Holding Department (toa) is a link between the 7/24 service and the admissions departments. We examined the make-up of the admission cohorts and the use of isolation between 2001 and 2017 in the context of demographic developments and changes in the mental healthcare sector.<br/> METHOD: Comparison of patient data in four cohorts who came in during four consecutive periods.<br/> RESULTS: The number of admissions rose from 408 a year in the period 2001-2003 to 728 in the period 2013-2016. The proportion of voluntary admissions increased from 4 to 33%, while emergency compulsory admissions (ibs) fell from 83 to 54%. The proportion of admissions of Dutch people from outside Amsterdam and of people from other countries rose from 11 to 23%. The percentage of patients with schizophrenic disorder rose from 25 to 32%, the percentage with mood disorder from 14 to 20% and the percentage with drug-related disorders from 3 to 7%. Assessment at a police station and the classification psychotic disorder were predictors of compulsory admissions (under the terms of the Dutch bopz act). Men under the age of 45 who were admitted compulsorily were more likely to be isolated. The percentage of patients isolated during admission fell from 37% to 20%, and the length of the periods of isolation also declined. CONCLUSIONS The increase in the annual number of admissions to the toa indicates, in the context of population growth and the rise in tourism, that there is a shortage of available beds in regular admissions departments in Amsterdam. Over the course of fifteen years, the number of Dutch nationals from outside Amsterdam and foreigners doubled. Due to policy and/or as a result of the increased proportion of patients admitted voluntarily, the use of isolation decreased.