In-hospital mortality risk stratification in children aged under 5 years with pneumonia with or without pulse oximetry: A secondary analysis of the Pneumonia REsearch Partnership to Assess WHO REcommendations (PREPARE) dataset

OBJECTIVES

We determined the pulse oximetry benefit in pediatric pneumonia mortality risk stratification and chest-indrawing pneumonia in-hospital mortality risk factors.

METHODS

We report the characteristics and in-hospital pneumonia-related mortality of children aged 2-59 months who were included in the Pneumonia Research Partnership to Assess WHO Recommendations dataset. We developed multivariable logistic regression models of chest-indrawing pneumonia to identify mortality risk factors.

RESULTS

Among 285,839 children, 164,244 (57.5%) from hospital-based studies were included. Pneumonia case fatality risk (CFR) without pulse oximetry measurement was higher than with measurement (5.8%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.6-5.9% vs 2.1%, 95% CI 1.9-2.4%). One in five children with chest-indrawing pneumonia was hypoxemic (19.7%, 95% CI 19.0-20.4%), and the hypoxemic CFR was 10.3% (95% CI 9.1-11.5%). Other mortality risk factors were younger age (either 2-5 months [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 9.94, 95% CI 6.67-14.84] or 6-11 months [aOR 2.67, 95% CI 1.71-4.16]), moderate malnutrition (aOR 2.41, 95% CI 1.87-3.09), and female sex (aOR 1.82, 95% CI 1.43-2.32).

CONCLUSION

Children with a pulse oximetry measurement had a lower CFR. Many children hospitalized with chest-indrawing pneumonia were hypoxemic and one in 10 died. Young age and moderate malnutrition were risk factors for in-hospital chest-indrawing pneumonia-related mortality. Pulse oximetry should be integrated in pneumonia hospital care for children under 5 years.

Assembling a global database of child pneumonia studies to inform WHO pneumonia management algorithm: Methodology and applications

Background

The existing World Health Organization (WHO) pneumonia case management guidelines rely on clinical symptoms and signs for identifying, classifying, and treating pneumonia in children up to 5 years old. We aimed to collate an individual patient-level data set from large, high-quality pre-existing studies on pneumonia in children to identify a set of signs and symptoms with greater validity in the diagnosis, prognosis, and possible treatment of childhood pneumonia for the improvement of current pneumonia case management guidelines.

Methods

Using data from a published systematic review and expert knowledge, we identified studies meeting our eligibility criteria and invited investigators to share individual-level patient data. We collected data on demographic information, general medical history, and current illness episode, including history, clinical presentation, chest radiograph findings when available, treatment, and outcome. Data were gathered separately from hospital-based and community-based cases. We performed a narrative synthesis to describe the final data set.

Results

Forty-one separate data sets were included in the Pneumonia Research Partnership to Assess WHO Recommendations (PREPARE) database, 26 of which were hospital-based and 15 were community-based. The PREPARE database includes 285 839 children with pneumonia (244 323 in the hospital and 41 516 in the community), with detailed descriptions of clinical presentation, clinical progression, and outcome. Of 9185 pneumonia-related deaths, 6836 (74%) occurred in children <1 year of age and 1317 (14%) in children aged 1-2 years. Of the 285 839 episodes, 280 998 occurred in children 0-59 months old, of which 129 584 (46%) were 2-11 months of age and 152 730 (54%) were males.

Conclusions

This data set could identify an improved specific, sensitive set of criteria for diagnosing clinical pneumonia and help identify sick children in need of referral to a higher level of care or a change of therapy. Field studies could be designed based on insights from PREPARE analyses to validate a potential revised pneumonia algorithm. The PREPARE methodology can also act as a model for disease database assembly.

Derivation and validation of a novel risk assessment tool to identify children aged 2–59 months at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality in 20 countries

Introduction

Existing risk assessment tools to identify children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality have shown suboptimal discriminatory value during external validation. Our objective was to derive and validate a novel risk assessment tool to identify children aged 2–59 months at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality across various settings.

Methods

We used primary, baseline, patient-level data from 11 studies, including children evaluated for pneumonia in 20 low-income and middle-income countries. Patients with complete data were included in a logistic regression model to assess the association of candidate variables with the outcome hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality. Adjusted log coefficients were calculated for each candidate variable and assigned weighted points to derive the Pneumonia Research Partnership to Assess WHO Recommendations (PREPARE) risk assessment tool. We used bootstrapped selection with 200 repetitions to internally validate the PREPARE risk assessment tool.

Results

A total of 27 388 children were included in the analysis (mean age 14.0 months, pneumonia-related case fatality ratio 3.1%). The PREPARE risk assessment tool included patient age, sex, weight-for-age z-score, body temperature, respiratory rate, unconsciousness or decreased level of consciousness, convulsions, cyanosis and hypoxaemia at baseline. The PREPARE risk assessment tool had good discriminatory value when internally validated (area under the curve 0.83, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.84).

Conclusions

The PREPARE risk assessment tool had good discriminatory ability for identifying children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality in a large, geographically diverse dataset. After external validation, this tool may be implemented in various settings to identify children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality.

Oral amoxicillin versus injectable penicillin for severe pneumonia in children aged 3 to 59 months: a randomised multicentre equivalency study

BACKGROUND

Injectable penicillin is the recommended treatment for WHO-defined severe pneumonia (lower chest indrawing). If oral amoxicillin proves equally effective, it could reduce referral, admission, and treatment costs. We aimed to determine whether oral amoxicillin and parenteral penicillin were equivalent in the treatment of severe pneumonia in children aged 3-59 months.

METHODS

This multicentre, randomised, open-label equivalency study was undertaken at tertiary-care centres in eight developing countries in Africa, Asia, and South America. Children aged 3-59 months with severe pneumonia were admitted for 48 h and, if symptoms improved, were discharged with a 5-day course of oral amoxicillin. 1702 children were randomly allocated to receive either oral amoxicillin (n=857) or parenteral penicillin (n=845) for 48 h. Follow-up assessments were done at 5 and 14 days after enrollment. Primary outcome was treatment failure (persistence of lower chest indrawing or new danger signs) at 48 h. Analyses were by intention-to-treat and per protocol.

FINDINGS

Treatment failure was 19% in each group (161 patients, pencillin; 167 amoxillin; risk difference -0.4%; 95% CI -4.2 to 3.3) at 48 h. Infancy (age 3-11 months; odds ratio 2.72, 95% CI 1.95 to 3.79), very fast breathing (1.94, 1.42 to 2.65), and hypoxia (1.95, 1.34 to 2.82) at baseline predicted treatment failure by multivariate analysis.

INTERPRETATION

Injectable penicillin and oral amoxicillin are equivalent for severe pneumonia treatment in controlled settings. Potential benefits of oral treatment include decreases in (1) risk of needle-borne infections; (2) need for referral or admission; (3) administration costs; and (4) costs to the family.