Predicting permeation of compounds across the outer membrane of P. aeruginosa using molecular descriptors

The ability Gram-negative pathogens have at adapting and protecting themselves against antibiotics has increasingly become a public health threat. Data-driven models identifying molecular properties that correlate with outer membrane (OM) permeation and growth inhibition while avoiding efflux could guide the discovery of novel classes of antibiotics. Here we evaluate 174 molecular descriptors in 1260 antimicrobial compounds and study their correlations with antibacterial activity in Gram-negative Pseudomonas aeruginosa. The descriptors are derived from traditional approaches quantifying the compounds' intrinsic physicochemical properties, together with, bacterium-specific from ensemble docking of compounds targeting specific MexB binding pockets, and all-atom molecular dynamics simulations in different subregions of the OM model. Using these descriptors and the measured inhibitory concentrations, we design a statistical protocol to identify predictors of OM permeation/inhibition. We find consistent rules across most of our data highlighting the role of the interaction between the compounds and the OM. An implementation of the rules uncovered in our study is shown, and it demonstrates the accuracy of our approach in a set of previously unseen compounds. Our analysis sheds new light on the key properties drug candidates need to effectively permeate/inhibit P. aeruginosa, and opens the gate to similar data-driven studies in other Gram-negative pathogens.

High dimensional predictions of suicide risk in 4.2 million US Veterans using ensemble transfer learning

We present an ensemble transfer learning method to predict suicide from Veterans Affairs (VA) electronic medical records (EMR). A diverse set of base models was trained to predict a binary outcome constructed from reported suicide, suicide attempt, and overdose diagnoses with varying choices of study design and prediction methodology. Each model used twenty cross-sectional and 190 longitudinal variables observed in eight time intervals covering 7.5 years prior to the time of prediction. Ensembles of seven base models were created and fine-tuned with ten variables expected to change with study design and outcome definition in order to predict suicide and combined outcome in a prospective cohort. The ensemble models achieved c-statistics of 0.73 on 2-year suicide risk and 0.83 on the combined outcome when predicting on a prospective cohort of [Formula: see text] 4.2 M veterans. The ensembles rely on nonlinear base models trained using a matched retrospective nested case-control (Rcc) study cohort and show good calibration across a diversity of subgroups, including risk strata, age, sex, race, and level of healthcare utilization. In addition, a linear Rcc base model provided a rich set of biological predictors, including indicators of suicide, substance use disorder, mental health diagnoses and treatments, hypoxia and vascular damage, and demographics.

Machine Learning-Driven Multiscale Modeling: Bridging the Scales with a Next-Generation Simulation Infrastructure

Interdependence across time and length scales is common in biology, where atomic interactions can impact larger-scale phenomenon. Such dependence is especially true for a well-known cancer signaling pathway, where the membrane-bound RAS protein binds an effector protein called RAF. To capture the driving forces that bring RAS and RAF (represented as two domains, RBD and CRD) together on the plasma membrane, simulations with the ability to calculate atomic detail while having long time and large length- scales are needed. The Multiscale Machine-Learned Modeling Infrastructure (MuMMI) is able to resolve RAS/RAF protein-membrane interactions that identify specific lipid-protein fingerprints that enhance protein orientations viable for effector binding. MuMMI is a fully automated, ensemble-based multiscale approach connecting three resolution scales: (1) the coarsest scale is a continuum model able to simulate milliseconds of time for a 1 μm² membrane, (2) the middle scale is a coarse-grained (CG) Martini bead model to explore protein-lipid interactions, and (3) the finest scale is an all-atom (AA) model capturing specific interactions between lipids and proteins. MuMMI dynamically couples adjacent scales in a pairwise manner using machine learning (ML). The dynamic coupling allows for better sampling of the refined scale from the adjacent coarse scale (forward) and on-the-fly feedback to improve the fidelity of the coarser scale from the adjacent refined scale (backward). MuMMI operates efficiently at any scale, from a few compute nodes to the largest supercomputers in the world, and is generalizable to simulate different systems. As computing resources continue to increase and multiscale methods continue to advance, fully automated multiscale simulations (like MuMMI) will be commonly used to address complex science questions.

Methods to capture proteomic and metabolomic signatures from cerebrospinal fluid and serum of healthy individuals

Discovery of reliable signatures for the empirical diagnosis of neurological diseases-both infectious and non-infectious-remains unrealized. One of the primary challenges encountered in such studies is the lack of a comprehensive database representative of a signature background that exists in healthy individuals, and against which an aberrant event can be assessed. For neurological insults and injuries, it is important to understand the normal profile in the neuronal (cerebrospinal fluid) and systemic fluids (e.g., blood). Here, we present the first comparative multi-omic human database of signatures derived from a population of 30 individuals (15 males, 15 females, 23-74 years) of serum and cerebrospinal fluid. In addition to empirical signatures, we also assigned common pathways between serum and CSF. Together, our findings provide a cohort against which aberrant signature profiles in individuals with neurological injuries/disease can be assessed-providing a pathway for comprehensive diagnostics and therapeutics discovery.

Asynchronous Reciprocal Coupling of Martini 2.2 Coarse-Grained and CHARMM36 All-Atom Simulations in an Automated Multiscale Framework

The appeal of multiscale modeling approaches is predicated on the promise of combinatorial synergy. However, this promise can only be realized when distinct scales are combined with reciprocal consistency. Here, we consider multiscale molecular dynamics (MD) simulations that combine the accuracy and macromolecular flexibility accessible to fixed-charge all-atom (AA) representations with the sampling speed accessible to reductive, coarse-grained (CG) representations. AA-to-CG conversions are relatively straightforward because deterministic routines with unique outcomes are achievable. Conversely, CG-to-AA conversions have many solutions due to a surge in the number of degrees of freedom. While automated tools for biomolecular CG-to-AA transformation exist, we find that one popular option, called Backward, is prone to stochastic failure and the AA models that it does generate frequently have compromised protein structure and incorrect stereochemistry. Although these shortcomings can likely be circumvented by human intervention in isolated instances, automated multiscale coupling requires reliable and robust scale conversion. Here, we detail an extension to Multiscale Machine-learned Modeling Infrastructure (MuMMI), including an improved CG-to-AA conversion tool called sinceCG. This tool is reliable (∼98% weakly correlated repeat success rate), automatable (no unrecoverable hangs), and yields AA models that generally preserve protein secondary structure and maintain correct stereochemistry. We describe how the MuMMI framework identifies CG system configurations of interest, converts them to AA representations, and simulates them at the AA scale while on-the-fly analyses provide feedback to update CG parameters. Application to systems containing the peripheral membrane protein RAS and proximal components of RAF kinase on complex eight-component lipid bilayers with ∼1.5 million atoms is discussed in the context of MuMMI.

A modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model for observed under-reported incidence data

Fitting Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models to incidence data is problematic when not all infected individuals are reported. Assuming an underlying SIR model with general but known distribution for the time to recovery, this paper derives the implied differential-integral equations for observed incidence data when a fixed fraction of newly infected individuals are not observed. The parameters of the resulting system of differential equations are identifiable. Using these differential equations, we develop a stochastic model for the conditional distribution of current disease incidence given the entire past history of reported cases. We estimate the model parameters using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte-Carlo sampling of the posterior distribution. We use our model to estimate the transmission rate and fraction of asymptomatic individuals for the current Coronavirus 2019 outbreak in eight American Countries: the United States of America, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Panama, from January 2020 to May 2021. Our analysis reveals that the fraction of reported cases varies across all countries. For example, the reported incidence fraction for the United States of America varies from 0.3 to 0.6, while for Brazil it varies from 0.2 to 0.4.

Complement component 3 mutations alter the longitudinal risk of pediatric malaria and severe malarial anemia

Severe malarial anemia (SMA) is a leading cause of childhood morbidity and mortality in holoendemic Plasmodium falciparum transmission regions. To gain enhanced understanding of predisposing factors for SMA, we explored the relationship between complement component 3 (C3) missense mutations [rs2230199 (2307C>G, Arg>Gly¹⁰²) and rs11569534 (34420G>A, Gly>Asp¹²²⁴)], malaria, and SMA in a cohort of children (n = 1617 children) over 36 months of follow-up. Variants were selected based on their ability to impart amino acid substitutions that can alter the structure and function of C3. The 2307C>G mutation results in a basic to a polar residue change (Arg to Gly) at position 102 (β-chain) in the macroglobulin-1 (MG1) domain, while 34420G>A elicits a polar to acidic residue change (Gly to Asp) at position 1224 (α-chain) in the thioester-containing domain. After adjusting for multiple comparisons, longitudinal analyses revealed that inheritance of the homozygous mutant (GG) at 2307 enhanced the risk of SMA (RR = 2.142, 95%CI: 1.229-3.735, P = 0.007). The haplotype containing both wild-type alleles (CG) decreased the incident risk ratio of both malaria (RR = 0.897, 95%CI: 0.828-0.972, P = 0.008) and SMA (RR = 0.617, 95%CI: 0.448-0.848, P = 0.003). Malaria incident risk ratio was also reduced in carriers of the GG (Gly¹⁰²Gly¹²²⁴) haplotype (RR = 0.941, 95%CI: 0.888-0.997, P = 0.040). Collectively, inheritance of the missense mutations in MG1 and thioester-containing domain influence the longitudinal risk of malaria and SMA in children exposed to intense Plasmodium falciparum transmission.

Quantification of the Resilience and Vulnerability of HIV-1 Native Glycan Shield at Atomistic Detail

Dense surface glycosylation on the HIV-1 envelope (Env) protein acts as a shield from the adaptive immune system. However, the molecular complexity and flexibility of glycans make experimental studies a challenge. Here we have integrated high-throughput atomistic modeling of fully glycosylated HIV-1 Env with graph theory to capture immunologically important features of the shield topology. This is the first complete all-atom model of HIV-1 Env SOSIP glycan shield that includes both oligomannose and complex glycans, providing physiologically relevant insights of the glycan shield. This integrated approach including quantitative comparison with cryo-electron microscopy data provides hitherto unexplored details of the native shield architecture and its difference from the high-mannose glycoform. We have also derived a measure to quantify the shielding effect over the antigenic protein surface that defines regions of relative vulnerability and resilience of the shield and can be harnessed for rational immunogen design.

Machine Learning Algorithm Identifies an Antibiotic Vocabulary for Permeating Gram-Negative Bacteria

Drug discovery faces a crisis. The industry has used up the "obvious" space in which to find novel drugs for biomedical applications, and productivity is declining. One strategy to combat this is rational approaches to expand the search space without relying on chemical intuition, to avoid rediscovery of similar spaces. In this work, we present proof of concept of an approach to rationally identify a "chemical vocabulary" related to a specific drug activity of interest without employing known rules. We focus on the pressing concern of multidrug resistance in Pseudomonas aeruginosa by searching for submolecules that promote compound entry into this bacterium. By synergizing theory, computation, and experiment, we validate our approach, explain the molecular mechanism behind identified fragments promoting compound entry, and select candidate compounds from an external library that display good permeation ability.

Cyclooxygenase-2 haplotypes influence the longitudinal risk of malaria and severe malarial anemia in Kenyan children from a holoendemic transmission region

Cyclooxygenase-2 [(COX-2) or prostaglandin endoperoxide H2 synthase-2 (PTGS-2)] induces the production of prostaglandins as part of the host-immune response to infections. Although a number of studies have demonstrated the effects of COX-2 promoter variants on autoimmune and inflammatory diseases, their role in malaria remains undefined. As such, we investigated the relationship between four COX-2 promoter variants (COX-2 -512 C > T, -608 T > C, -765 G > C, and -1195 A > G) and susceptibility to malaria and severe malarial anemia (SMA) upon enrollment and longitudinally over a 36-month follow-up period. All-cause mortality was also explored. The investigation was carried out in children (n = 1081, age; 2-70 months) residing in a holoendemic Plasmodium falciparum transmission region of western Kenya. At enrollment, genotypes/haplotypes (controlling for anemia-promoting covariates) did not reveal any strong effects on susceptibility to either malaria or SMA. Longitudinal analyses showed decreased malaria episodes in children who inherited the -608 CC mutant allele (RR = 0.746, P = 1.811 × 10-4) and -512C/-608T/-765G/-1195G (CTGG) haplotype (RR = 0.856, P = 0.011), and increased risk in TTCA haplotype carriers (RR = 1.115, P = 0.026). Over the follow-up period, inheritance of the rare TTCG haplotype was associated with enhanced susceptibility to both malaria (RR = 1.608, P = 0.016) and SMA (RR = 5.714, P = 0.004), while carriage of the rare TTGG haplotype increased the risk of malaria (RR = 1.755, P = 0.007), SMA (RR = 8.706, P = 3.97 × 10-4), and all-cause mortality (HR = 110.000, P = 0.001). Collectively, these results show that SNP variations in the COX-2 promoter, and their inherited combinations, are associated with the longitudinal risk of malaria, SMA, and all-cause mortality among children living in a high transmission area for P. falciparum.

Principles Governing Establishment versus Collapse of HIV-1 Cellular Spread

A population at low census might go extinct or instead transition into exponential growth to become firmly established. Whether this pivotal event occurs for a within-host pathogen can be the difference between health and illness. Here, we define the principles governing whether HIV-1 spread among cells fails or becomes established by coupling stochastic modeling with laboratory experiments. Following ex vivo activation of latently infected CD4 T cells without de novo infection, stochastic cell division and death contributes to high variability in the magnitude of initial virus release. Transition to exponential HIV-1 spread often fails due to release of an insufficient amount of replication-competent virus. Establishment of exponential growth occurs when virus produced from multiple infected cells exceeds a critical population size. We quantitatively define the crucial transition to exponential viral spread. Thwarting this process would prevent HIV transmission or rebound from the latent reservoir.

California condor microbiomes: Bacterial variety and functional properties in captive-bred individuals

Around the world, scavenging birds such as vultures and condors have been experiencing drastic population declines. Scavenging birds have a distinct digestive process to deal with higher amounts of bacteria in their primary diet of carcasses in varying levels of decay. These observations motivate us to present an analysis of captive and healthy California condor (Gymnogyps californianus) microbiomes to characterize a population raised together under similar conditions. Shotgun metagenomic DNA sequences were analyzed from fecal and cloacal samples of captive birds. Classification of shotgun DNA sequence data with peptide signatures using the Sequedex package provided both phylogenetic and functional profiles, as well as individually annotated reads for targeted confirmatory analysis. We observed bacterial species previously associated with birds and gut microbiomes, including both virulent and opportunistic pathogens such as Clostridium perfringens, Propionibacterium acnes, Shigella flexneri, and Fusobacterium mortiferum, common flora such as Lactobacillus johnsonii, Lactobacillus ruminus, and Bacteroides vulgatus, and mucosal microbes such as Delftia acidovorans, Stenotrophomonas maltophilia, and Corynebacterium falsnii. Classification using shotgun metagenomic reads from phylogenetic marker genes was consistent with, and more specific than, analysis based on 16S rDNA data. Classification of samples based on either phylogenetic or functional profiles of genomic fragments differentiated three types of samples: fecal, mature cloacal and immature cloacal, with immature birds having approximately 40% higher diversity of microbes.

Computing long time scale biomolecular dynamics using quasi-stationary distribution kinetic Monte Carlo (QSD-KMC)

It is a challenge to obtain an accurate model of the state-to-state dynamics of a complex biological system from molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. In recent years, Markov state models have gained immense popularity for computing state-to-state dynamics from a pool of short MD simulations. However, the assumption that the underlying dynamics on the reduced space is Markovian induces a systematic bias in the model, especially in biomolecular systems with complicated energy landscapes. To address this problem, we have devised a new approach we call quasistationary distribution kinetic Monte Carlo (QSD-KMC) that gives accurate long time state-to-state evolution while retaining the entire time resolution even when the dynamics is highly non-Markovian. The proposed method is a kinetic Monte Carlo approach that takes advantage of two concepts: (i) the quasistationary distribution, the distribution that results when a trajectory remains in one state for a long time (the dephasing time), such that the next escape is Markovian, and (ii) dynamical corrections theory, which properly accounts for the correlated events that occur as a trajectory passes from state to state before it settles again. In practice, this is achieved by specifying, for each escape, the intermediate states and the final state that has resulted from the escape. Implementation of QSD-KMC imposes stricter requirements on the lengths of the trajectories than in a Markov state model approach as the trajectories must be long enough to dephase. However, the QSD-KMC model produces state-to-state trajectories that are statistically indistinguishable from an MD trajectory mapped onto the discrete set of states for an arbitrary choice of state decomposition. Furthermore, the aforementioned concepts can be used to construct a Monte Carlo approach to optimize the state boundaries regardless of the initial choice of states. We demonstrate the QSD-KMC method on two one-dimensional model systems, one of which is a driven nonequilibrium system, and on two well-characterized biomolecular systems.

Integrated OMICS platforms identify LAIR1 genetic variants as novel predictors of cross-sectional and longitudinal susceptibility to severe malaria and all-cause mortality in Kenyan children

Background

Severe malarial anaemia (SMA) is a leading cause of childhood mortality in holoendemic Plasmodium falciparum regions.

Methods

To gain an improved understanding of SMA pathogenesis, whole genome and transcriptome profiling was performed in Kenyan children (n = 144, 3–36 months) with discrete non-SMA and SMA phenotypes. Leukocyte associated immunoglobulin like receptor 1 (LAIR1) emerged as a predictor of susceptibility to SMA (P < 1 × 10⁻², OR: 0.44–1.37), and was suppressed in severe disease (−1.69-fold, P = 0.004). To extend these findings, the relationship between LAIR1 polymorphisms [rs6509867 (16231C>A); rs2287827 (18835G>A)] and clinical outcomes were investigated in individuals (n = 1512, <5 years) at enrolment and during a 36-month longitudinal follow-up.

Findings

Inheritance of the 16,231 recessive genotype (AA) increased susceptibility to SMA at enrolment (OR = 1.903, 95%CI: 1.252–2.891, P = 0.003), and longitudinally (RR = 1.527, 95%CI: 1.119–2.083, P = 0.008). Carriage of the 18,835 GA genotype protected against SMA cross-sectionally (OR = 0.672, 95%CI: 0.480–0.9439, P = 0.020). Haplotype carriage (C16231A/G18835A) also altered cross-sectional susceptibility to SMA: CG (OR = 0.717, 95%CI: 0.527–0.9675, P = 0.034), CA (OR = 0.745, 95%CI: 0.536–1.036, P = 0.080), and AG (OR = 1.641, 95%CI: 1.160–2.321, P = 0.005). Longitudinally, CA carriage was protective against SMA (RR = 0.715, 95%CI: 0.554–0.923, P = 0.010), while AG carriage had an additive effect on enhanced SMA risk (RR = 1.283, 95%CI: 1.057–1.557, P = 0.011). Variants that protected against SMA had elevated LAIR1 transcripts, while those with enhanced risk had lower expression (P < 0.05). Inheritance of 18,835 GA reduced all-cause mortality by 44.8% (HR = 0.552, 95%CI: 0.329–0.925, P = 0.024), while AG haplotype carriage increased susceptibility by 68% (HR = 1.680, 95%CI: 1.020–2.770, P = 0.040).

Interpretation

These findings suggest LAIR1 is important for modulating susceptibility to SMA and all-cause childhood mortality.

Presentation matters: Impact of association of amphiphilic LPS with serum carrier proteins on innate immune signaling

Recognition of Pathogen-associated Molecular Patterns (PAMPs) by Toll-like receptors is central to innate immunity. Many bacterial PAMPs such as lipopolysaccharide (LPS) and lipoteichoic acid have amphiphilic properties. The hydrophobicity of amphiphilic PAMPs contributes to increasing entropy and causes these molecules to self-aggregate or bind host carrier proteins in aqueous physiological environments. The goal of this work was to determine how innate immune signaling is impacted by physical presentation and association of amphiphilic PAMPs with serum carrier proteins, using LPS as an example molecule. Specifically, we measured LPS-induced cytokine profiles in murine macrophages when the antigen was presented associated with the various serum carrier proteins in serum versus a serum-depleted system. Our study demonstrates that the observed cytokine profiles are dramatically different when LPS is presented in buffer, versus in serum when it is associated with proteins, specifically with respect to inhibition of pro-inflammatory cytokines in the latter. These studies suggest that LPS-mediated cytokine expression is dependent on its presentation in physiological systems. The amphiphilicity of bacterial PAMPs and consequent association with lipoproteins is a feature, which should be taken into account in the design of in vitro experiments. Further studies of the interdependencies of different serum carriers can identify pathways for drug delivery and diagnostics.

Membrane Insertion for the Detection of Lipopolysaccharides: Exploring the Dynamics of Amphiphile-in-Lipid Assays

Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli is an important cause of foodborne illness, with cases attributable to beef, fresh produce and other sources. Many serotypes of the pathogen cause disease, and differentiating one serotype from another requires specific identification of the O antigen located on the lipopolysaccharide (LPS) molecule. The amphiphilic structure of LPS poses a challenge when using classical detection methods, which do not take into account its lipoglycan biochemistry. Typically, detection of LPS requires heat or chemical treatment of samples and relies on bioactivity assays for the conserved lipid A portion of the molecule. Our goal was to develop assays to facilitate the direct and discriminative detection of the entire LPS molecule and its O antigen in complex matrices using minimal sample processing. To perform serogroup identification of LPS, we used a method called membrane insertion on a waveguide biosensor, and tested three serogroups of LPS. The membrane insertion technique allows for the hydrophobic association of LPS with a lipid bilayer, where the exposed O antigen can be targeted for specific detection. Samples of beef lysate were spiked with LPS to perform O antigen specific detection of LPS from E. coli O157. To validate assay performance, we evaluated the biophysical interactions of LPS with lipid bilayers both in- and outside of a flow cell using fluorescence microscopy and fluorescently doped lipids. Our results indicate that membrane insertion allows for the qualitative and reliable identification of amphiphilic LPS in complex samples like beef homogenates. We also demonstrated that LPS-induced hole formation does not occur under the conditions of the membrane insertion assays. Together, these findings describe for the first time the serogroup-specific detection of amphiphilic LPS in complex samples using a membrane insertion assay, and highlight the importance of LPS molecular conformations in detection architectures.

Hypothyroidism risk compared among nine common bipolar disorder therapies in a large US cohort

OBJECTIVES

Thyroid abnormalities in patients with bipolar disorder (BD) have been linked to lithium treatment for decades, yet other drugs have been less well studied. Our objective was to compare hypothyroidism risk for lithium versus the anticonvulsants and second-generation antipsychotics commonly prescribed for BD.

METHODS

Administrative claims data on 24,574 patients with BD were analyzed with competing risk survival analysis. Inclusion criteria were (i) one year of no prior hypothyroid diagnosis nor BD drug treatment, (ii) followed by at least one thyroid test during BD monotherapy on lithium carbonate, mood-stabilizing anticonvulsants (lamotrigine, valproate, oxcarbazepine, or carbamazepine) or antipsychotics (aripiprazole, olanzapine, risperidone, or quetiapine). The outcome was cumulative incidence of hypothyroidism per drug, in the presence of the competing risk of ending monotherapy, adjusted for age, sex, physician visits, and thyroid tests.

RESULTS

Adjusting for covariates, the four-year cumulative risk of hypothyroidism for lithium (8.8%) was 1.39-fold that of the lowest risk therapy, oxcarbazepine (6.3%). Lithium was non-statistically significantly different from quetiapine. While lithium conferred a higher risk when compared to all other treatments combined as a group, hypothyroidism risk error bars overlapped for all drugs. Treatment (p = 3.86e-3), age (p = 6.91e-10), sex (p = 3.93e-7), and thyroid testing (p = 2.79e-87) affected risk. Patients taking lithium were tested for hypothyroidism 2.26-3.05 times more frequently than those on other treatments.

CONCLUSIONS

Thyroid abnormalities occur frequently in patients with BD regardless of treatment. Therefore, patients should be regularly tested for clinical or subclinical thyroid abnormalities on all therapies and treated as indicated to prevent adverse effects of hormone imbalances on mood.

Metagenome sequence analysis of filamentous microbial communities obtained from geochemically distinct geothermal channels reveals specialization of three aquificales lineages

The Aquificales are thermophilic microorganisms that inhabit hydrothermal systems worldwide and are considered one of the earliest lineages of the domain Bacteria. We analyzed metagenome sequence obtained from six thermal "filamentous streamer" communities (∼40 Mbp per site), which targeted three different groups of Aquificales found in Yellowstone National Park (YNP). Unassembled metagenome sequence and PCR-amplified 16S rRNA gene libraries revealed that acidic, sulfidic sites were dominated by Hydrogenobaculum (Aquificaceae) populations, whereas the circum-neutral pH (6.5-7.8) sites containing dissolved sulfide were dominated by Sulfurihydrogenibium spp. (Hydrogenothermaceae). Thermocrinis (Aquificaceae) populations were found primarily in the circum-neutral sites with undetectable sulfide, and to a lesser extent in one sulfidic system at pH 8. Phylogenetic analysis of assembled sequence containing 16S rRNA genes as well as conserved protein-encoding genes revealed that the composition and function of these communities varied across geochemical conditions. Each Aquificales lineage contained genes for CO2 fixation by the reverse-TCA cycle, but only the Sulfurihydrogenibium populations perform citrate cleavage using ATP citrate lyase (Acl). The Aquificaceae populations use an alternative pathway catalyzed by two separate enzymes, citryl-CoA synthetase (Ccs), and citryl-CoA lyase (Ccl). All three Aquificales lineages contained evidence of aerobic respiration, albeit due to completely different types of heme Cu oxidases (subunit I) involved in oxygen reduction. The distribution of Aquificales populations and differences among functional genes involved in energy generation and electron transport is consistent with the hypothesis that geochemical parameters (e.g., pH, sulfide, H2, O2) have resulted in niche specialization among members of the Aquificales.

An epidemiological model of spatial coupling for trips longer than the infectious period

One of the standard methods of accounting for inter-population disease spread in equation-based epidemiology models is through a transportation operator. Implicit in the use of the transportation operator, however, is an assumption that daily travel volumes are small compared to overall population sizes, an assumption that can break down for modern rates of international travel or local commuter traffic. Alternative types of coupling have been proposed in the limit that trip durations are much shorter than the infectious period. We present an extension of these phenomenological models that relaxes both assumptions. We show that the approach produces more accurate results when assessing the impact of mitigative actions using modern travel volumes.

Rapid phylogenetic and functional classification of short genomic fragments with signature peptides

BACKGROUND

Classification is difficult for shotgun metagenomics data from environments such as soils, where the diversity of sequences is high and where reference sequences from close relatives may not exist. Approaches based on sequence-similarity scores must deal with the confounding effects that inheritance and functional pressures exert on the relation between scores and phylogenetic distance, while approaches based on sequence alignment and tree-building are typically limited to a small fraction of gene families. We describe an approach based on finding one or more exact matches between a read and a precomputed set of peptide 10-mers.

RESULTS

At even the largest phylogenetic distances, thousands of 10-mer peptide exact matches can be found between pairs of bacterial genomes. Genes that share one or more peptide 10-mers typically have high reciprocal BLAST scores. Among a set of 403 representative bacterial genomes, some 20 million 10-mer peptides were found to be shared. We assign each of these peptides as a signature of a particular node in a phylogenetic reference tree based on the RNA polymerase genes. We classify the phylogeny of a genomic fragment (e.g., read) at the most specific node on the reference tree that is consistent with the phylogeny of observed signature peptides it contains. Using both synthetic data from four newly-sequenced soil-bacterium genomes and ten real soil metagenomics data sets, we demonstrate a sensitivity and specificity comparable to that of the MEGAN metagenomics analysis package using BLASTX against the NR database. Phylogenetic and functional similarity metrics applied to real metagenomics data indicates a signal-to-noise ratio of approximately 400 for distinguishing among environments. Our method assigns ~6.6 Gbp/hr on a single CPU, compared with 25 kbp/hr for methods based on BLASTX against the NR database.

CONCLUSIONS

Classification by exact matching against a precomputed list of signature peptides provides comparable results to existing techniques for reads longer than about 300 bp and does not degrade severely with shorter reads. Orders of magnitude faster than existing methods, the approach is suitable now for inclusion in analysis pipelines and appears to be extensible in several different directions.

Common bacterial responses in six ecosystems exposed to 10 years of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide

Six terrestrial ecosystems in the USA were exposed to elevated atmospheric CO(2) in single or multifactorial experiments for more than a decade to assess potential impacts. We retrospectively assessed soil bacterial community responses in all six-field experiments and found ecosystem-specific and common patterns of soil bacterial community response to elevated CO(2) . Soil bacterial composition differed greatly across the six ecosystems. No common effect of elevated atmospheric CO(2) on bacterial biomass, richness and community composition across all of the ecosystems was identified, although significant responses were detected in individual ecosystems. The most striking common trend across the sites was a decrease of up to 3.5-fold in the relative abundance of Acidobacteria Group 1 bacteria in soils exposed to elevated CO(2) or other climate factors. The Acidobacteria Group 1 response observed in exploratory 16S rRNA gene clone library surveys was validated in one ecosystem by 100-fold deeper sequencing and semi-quantitative PCR assays. Collectively, the 16S rRNA gene sequencing approach revealed influences of elevated CO(2) on multiple ecosystems. Although few common trends across the ecosystems were detected in the small surveys, the trends may be harbingers of more substantive changes in less abundant, more sensitive taxa that can only be detected by deeper surveys. Representative bacterial 16S rRNA gene clone sequences were deposited in GenBank with Accession No. JQ366086–JQ387568.

Upper limit to magnetism in LaAlO3/SrTiO3 heterostructures

Using polarized neutron reflectometry we measured the neutron spin-dependent reflectivity from four LaAlO(3)/SrTiO(3) superlattices. Our results imply that the upper limit for the magnetization averaged over the lateral dimensions of the sample induced by an 11 T magnetic field at 1.7 K is less than 2 G. SQUID magnetometry of the neutron superlattice samples sporadically finds an enhanced moment, possibly due to experimental artifacts. These observations set important restrictions on theories which imply a strongly enhanced magnetism at the interface between LaAlO(3) and SrTiO(3).

Efficiency of competitions

League competition is investigated using random processes and scaling techniques. In our model, a weak team can upset a strong team with a fixed probability. Teams play an equal number of head-to-head matches and the team with the largest number of wins is declared to be the champion. The total number of games needed for the best team to win the championship with high certainty T grows as the cube of the number of teams N , i.e., T approximately N(3). This number can be substantially reduced using preliminary rounds where teams play a small number of games and subsequently, only the top teams advance to the next round. When there are k rounds, the total number of games needed for the best team to emerge as champion, T(k), scales as follows, T(k) approximately N(gamma(k)) with gamma(k) = [1-(2/3)(k+1)](-1). For example, gamma(k)=95,2719,8165 for k=1,2,3 . These results suggest an algorithm for how to infer the best team using a schedule that is linear in N. We conclude that league format is an ineffective method of determining the best team, and that sequential elimination from the bottom up is fair and efficient.

Statistical reconstruction for cosmic ray muon tomography

Highly penetrating cosmic ray muons constantly shower the earth at a rate of about 1 muon per cm2 per minute. We have developed a technique which exploits the multiple Coulomb scattering of these particles to perform nondestructive inspection without the use of artificial radiation. In prior work [1]-[3], we have described heuristic methods for processing muon data to create reconstructed images. In this paper, we present a maximum likelihood/expectation maximization tomographic reconstruction algorithm designed for the technique. This algorithm borrows much from techniques used in medical imaging, particularly emission tomography, but the statistics of muon scattering dictates differences. We describe the statistical model for multiple scattering, derive the reconstruction algorithm, and present simulated examples. We also propose methods to improve the robustness of the algorithm to experimental errors and events departing from the statistical model.

Estimating the reproduction number from the initial phase of the Spanish flu pandemic waves in Geneva, Switzerland

At the outset of an influenza pandemic, early estimates of the number of secondary cases generated by a primary influenza case (reproduction number, R) and its associated uncertainty can help determine the intensity of interventions necessary for control. Using a compartmental model and hospital notification data of the first two waves of the Spanish flu pandemic in Geneva, Switzerland in 1918, we estimate the reproduction number from the early phase of the pandemic waves. For the spring and fall pandemic waves, we estimate reproduction numbers of 1:57 (95% CI: 1:45, 1:70) and 3:10 (2:81, 3:39), respectively, from the initial epidemic phase comprising the first 10 epidemic days of the corresponding wave. Estimates of the variance of our point estimates of R were computed via a parametric bootstrap. We compare these estimates with others obtained using different observation windows to provide insight into how early into an epidemic the reproduction number can be estimated.

Estimation of the reproductive number of the Spanish flu epidemic in Geneva, Switzerland

The 1918 influenza pandemic known as the "Spanish Flu" has been the worst in recent history with estimated worldwide mortality ranging from 20 to 100 million deaths. Using epidemic modeling and hospital notification data during the 1918 influenza pandemic in the Canton of Geneva, Switzerland, we estimated the reproductive numbers of the first and second waves of influenza infection to be R(1)=1.49 (95% CI: 1.45-1.53) and R(2)=3.75 (95% CI: 3.57-3.93), respectively. Our estimates indicate that containment of the next influenza pandemic could require strict interventions that include effective isolation strategies in hospitals and reductions in the susceptibility of the general population.

Transmission dynamics of the great influenza pandemic of 1918 in Geneva, Switzerland: Assessing the effects of hypothetical interventions

Recurrent outbreaks of the avian H5N1 influenza virus in Asia represent a constant global pandemic threat. We characterize and evaluate hypothetical public health measures during the 1918 influenza pandemic in the Canton of Geneva, Switzerland. The transmission rate, the recovery rate, the diagnostic rate, the relative infectiousness of asymptomatic cases, and the proportion of clinical cases are estimated through least-squares fitting of the model to epidemic curve data of the cumulative number of hospital notifications. The latent period and the case fatality proportion are taken from published literature. We determine the variance and identifiability of model parameters via a simulation study. Our epidemic model agrees well with the observed epidemic data. We estimate the basic reproductive number for the spring wave R1;=1.49 (95% CI: 1.45-1.53) and the reproductive number for the fall wave R2;=3.75 (95% CI: 3.57-3.93). In addition, we estimate the clinical reporting for these two waves to be 59.7% (95% CI: 55.7-63.7) and 83% (95% CI: 79-87). We surmise that the lower reporting in the first wave can be explained by a lack of initial awareness of the epidemic and the relative higher severity of the symptoms experienced during the fall wave. We found that effective isolation measures in hospital clinics at best would only ensure control with probability 0.87 while reducing the transmission rate by >76.5% guarantees stopping an epidemic.

Predicting scorpion sting incidence in an endemic region using climatological variables

Scorpionism is a public health problem in several regions of the world. The highest mortality, with over 1000 deaths per year, has been reported in Mexico. We analysed the significance of climatological variables to predict the incidence of scorpion stings in humans in the state of Colima (Mexico) for the years 2000-2001. The pluvial precipitation (mm), the evaporation (mm), and the mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures (degrees C) were obtained from local meteorological offices. There are approximately 3 stings/year per 1000 people in municipalities of Colima and Villa de Alvarez and about 18-30 stings/year per 1000 people in the rest of the municipalities. There is very little rain and there are few stings in the winter when the minimum temperature is below about 16 degrees C. The number of scorpion stings is independent of the actual rainfall when this is above 30 mm/month. Using multiple linear regression, we used a backward model selection procedure to estimate that the minimum temperature is correlated with scorpion sting incidence with a statistically significance of 95%. We briefly discuss the application of predictive models of scorpion sting incidence in the appropriate allocation of antivenom serum in hospital clinics.

The role of spatial mixing in the spread of foot-and-mouth disease

A model of epidemic dispersal (based on the assumption that susceptible cattle were homogeneously mixed over space, or non-spatial model) was compared to a partially spatially explicit and discrete model (the spatial model), which was composed of differential equations and used geo-coded data (Euclidean distances between county centroids). While the spatial model accounted for intra- and inter-county epidemic spread, the non-spatial model did not assess regional differences. A geo-coded dataset that resembled conditions favouring homogeneous mixing assumptions (based on the 2001 Uruguayan foot-and-mouth disease epidemic), was used for testing. Significant differences between models were observed in the average transmission rate between farms, both before and after a control policy (animal movement ban) was imposed. They also differed in terms of daily number of infected farms: the non-spatial model revealed a single epidemic peak (at, approximately, 25 epidemic days); while the spatial model revealed two epidemic peaks (at, approximately, 12 and 28 days, respectively). While the spatial model fitted well with the observed cumulative number of infected farms, the non-spatial model did not (P<0.01). In addition, the spatial model: (a) indicated an early intra-county reproductive number R of approximately 87 (falling to <1 within 25 days), and an inter-county R<1; (b) predicted that, if animal movement restrictions had begun 3 days before/after the estimated initiation of such policy, cases would have decreased/increased by 23 or 26%, respectively. Spatial factors (such as inter-farm distance and coverage of vaccination campaigns, absent in non-spatial models) may explain why partially explicit spatial models describe epidemic spread more accurately than non-spatial models even at early epidemic phases. Integration of geo-coded data into mathematical models is recommended.

The basic reproductive number of Ebola and the effects of public health measures: the cases of Congo and Uganda

Despite improved control measures, Ebola remains a serious public health risk in African regions where recurrent outbreaks have been observed since the initial epidemic in 1976. Using epidemic modeling and data from two well-documented Ebola outbreaks (Congo 1995 and Uganda 2000), we estimate the number of secondary cases generated by an index case in the absence of control interventions R0. Our estimate of R0 is 1.83 (SD 0.06) for Congo (1995) and 1.34 (SD 0.03) for Uganda (2000). We model the course of the outbreaks via an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed) epidemic model that includes a smooth transition in the transmission rate after control interventions are put in place. We perform an uncertainty analysis of the basic reproductive number R0 to quantify its sensitivity to other disease-related parameters. We also analyse the sensitivity of the final epidemic size to the time interventions begin and provide a distribution for the final epidemic size. The control measures implemented during these two outbreaks (including education and contact tracing followed by quarantine) reduce the final epidemic size by a factor of 2 relative the final size with a 2-week delay in their implementation.