Exploring Winegrowers' Behaviours and Ecological Impacts Under Climate Change and Policy Scenarios-Examples from Three European Winegrowing Regions

Viticulture is an example of a socio-ecological system that poses serious challenges for sustainable soil management and pesticide use, with various interactions between winegrowers' decision-making and ecological consequences. This study introduces an agent-based model (ABM) on winegrowers' decision on inter-row management and pesticide use. The ABM builds upon an empirical study of winegrowers' decision-making in European viticultural landscapes and has been built for three case study regions: Leithaberg (Austria), Palatinate (Germany) and Târnave (Romania). The ABM allows for analysing potential effects of policy instruments including mandatory vegetation cover in the inter-rows, the reduction of fungicide use and ban of insecticides against Lobesia botrana. The effects of policies differ between the case study regions, indicating how important the local context is for effective policies. For example, policies aiming at higher inter-row vegetation cover had the strongest effects on vegetation cover, landscape aesthetics and soil loss in Târnave since many vineyards are currently intensively tilled and there exist no policies supporting inter-row vegetation cover in Romania.

From individual Fuzzy Cognitive Maps to Agent Based Models: Modeling multi-factorial and multi-stakeholder decision-making for water scarcity

Policy making for complex Social-Ecological Systems (SESs) is a multi-factorial and multi-stakeholder decision making process. Therefore, proper policy simulation in a SES should consider both the complex behavior of the system and the multi-stakeholders' interventions into the system, which requires integrated methodological approaches. In this study, we simulate impacts of policy options on a farming community facing water scarcity in Rafsanjan, Iran, using an integrated modeling methodology combining an Agent Based Model (ABM) with Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM). First, the behavioral rules of farmers and the causal relations among environmental variables are captured with FCMs that are developed with both qualitative and quantitative data, i.e. farmers' knowledge and empirical data from studies. Then, an ABM is developed to model decisions and actions of farmers and simulate their impacts on overall groundwater use and emigration of farmers in this case study. Finally, the impacts of different policy options are simulated and compared with a baseline scenario. The results suggest that a policy of facilitating farmers' participation in management and control of their groundwater use leads to the highest reduction of groundwater use and would help to secure farmers' activities in Rafsanjan. Our approach covers four main aspects that are crucial for policy simulation in SESs: 1) causal relationships, 2) feedback mechanisms, 3) social-spatial heterogeneity and 4) temporal dynamics. This approach is particularly useful for ex-ante policy options analysis.

P5384Postnatal mouse aorta contains yolk sac-derived haemangioblasts with myeloid and endothelial plasticity and vasculogenic capacity

Background

Macrophages and endothelial cells share an intimate relationship during neovessel formation in different pathophysiological conditions. Recent studies have determined that in some tissues, both cell types are derived embryonically from yolk sac (YS) progenitor cells and are maintained postnatally without contribution from circulating sources. The mechanism by which this local “self-maintenance” occurs is unknown.

Purpose

We previously identified that mouse arteries contain macrophage and endothelial progenitor cells in their adventitial Sca-1+CD45+ compartment. Here we investigated at a clonal level for the existence of postnatal adventitial haemangioblasts and studied their developmental origins.

Methods and results

Single cell digests were prepared from murine aortas to perform colony-forming unit (CFU) assays in methylcellulose. Aortic cells from C57BL/6J mice selectively generated macrophage colonies (CFU-M) which contained progenitor cells that displayed >95% positive for expression of CD45, Sca-1, c-Kit, CX3CR1 and CSF1R, but negative for Lineage markers, as well as mature monocyte/macrophage (CD11b, F4/80) and endothelial (CD144) markers. Secondary replating of CFU-M progenitors from adult aortas revealed their self-renewal capacity, with 1 in 10 cells forming new CFU-M. Lineage mapping using Flt3CrexRosamT/mG mice demonstrated that aortic CFU-M progenitors were FLT3-ve, indicating that they were not derived from definitive bone marrow haematopoiesis. CFU-M prevalence in C57BL/6J aortas was highest in neonatal mice and diminished progressively with increasing age (∼100 per 105 cells at P1, ∼15 at 12w, ∼5 at 52w, P<0.01, n>4/gp), consistent with prenatal seeding. Embryonic profiling determined that CFU-M progenitors first appeared in extra-embryonic yolk sac around E9.5 and in aorta-gonad-mesonephros at E10.5, before the emergence of definitive haematopoietic stem cells. Inducible fate-mapping then confirmed that aortic CFU-M progenitors originated from CX3CR1+ and CSF1R+ cells in E9.5 yolk sac. Both yolk sac and postnatal aortic CFU-M progenitors generated vascular-like networks when cultured in Matrigel in vitro, containing M2-like macrophages (CD11b+F4/80+CD206+) and endothelial cells (CD31+CD144+). They produced similar progeny and rescued adventitial vascular sprouting when seeded around aortic rings whose adventitia had been stripped. Finally, adoptive transfer of CFU-M progenitors into a mouse model of hindlimb ischaemia resulted in 80% augmentation in hindlimb perfusion compared to cell-free control, with de novo transformation of donor cells into macrophages, endothelial cells and perfused neovessels (n=6).

Conclusion

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first ever definitive proof at a clonal level for the existence of haemangioblasts in postnatal tissue. Adventitial haemangioblasts originate from extra-embryonic YS and are a source of vasculogenesis in the arterial wall, relevant to vasa vasorum formation.

Acknowledgement/Funding

NHMRC of Australia (GNT1086796, CDF1161506), NHFA (FLF100412, FLF102056) Royal Australasian College of Physicians

Keratin 6a mutations lead to impaired mitochondrial quality control

BACKGROUND

Epidermal differentiation is a multilevel process in which keratinocytes need to lose their organelles, including their mitochondria, by autophagy. Disturbed autophagy leads to thickening of the epidermis as seen in pachyonychia congenita (PC), a rare skin disease caused by mutations in keratins 6, 16 and 17.

OBJECTIVES

To ask if mitophagy, the selective degradation of mitochondria by autophagy, is disturbed in PC and, if so, at which stage.

METHODS

Immortalized keratinocytes derived from patients with PC were used in fluorescence-based and biochemical assays to dissect the different steps of mitophagy.

RESULTS

PC keratinocytes accumulated old mitochondria and displayed disturbed clearance of mitochondria after mitochondrial uncoupling. However, early mitophagy steps and autophagosome formation were not affected. We observed that autolysosomes accumulate in PC and are not sufficiently recycled.

CONCLUSIONS

We propose an influence of keratins on autolysosomal degradation and recycling. What's already known about this topic? Terminal epidermal differentiation is a multistep process that includes the elimination of cellular components by autophagy. Autophagy-impaired keratinocytes have been shown to result in thickening of epidermal layers. Hyperkeratosis also occurs in pachyonychia congenita (PC), a rare skin disease caused by mutations in keratins 6, 16 and 17. What does this study add? Keratins contribute to mitochondrial quality control as well as maintenance of mitochondria-endoplasmic reticulum contact sites. Keratins influence autolysosomal maturation or reformation. What is the translational message? Overaged mitochondria and autolysosomes accumulate in PC. Mutations in keratin 6a lead to severely impaired mitophagy, which might contribute to PC pathogenesis.

Clinical and genetic spectrum of SCN2A-associated episodic ataxia

BACKGROUND

Pathogenic variants in SCN2A are associated with various neurological disorders including epilepsy, autism spectrum disorder and intellectual disability. Few reports have recently described SCN2A-associated episodic ataxia (EA). Our study identifies its broader clinical and genetic spectrum, and describes pharmacological approaches.

RESULTS

We report 21 patients with SCN2A-associated EA, of which 9 are unpublished cases. The large majority of patients present with epileptic seizures (18/21, 86%), often starting within the first three months of life (12/18, 67%). In contrast, onset of episodic ataxia ranged from 10 months to 14 years of age. The frequency of EA episodes ranged from brief, daily events up to 1-2 episodes per year each lasting several weeks. Potential triggers include minor head traumas and sleep deprivation. Cognitive outcome is favorable in most patients with normal or mildly impaired cognitive development in 17/21 patients (81%). No clear genotype-phenotype correlations were identified in this cohort. However, two mutational hotspots were identified, i.e. 7/21 patients (33%) harbor the identical pathogenic variant p.A263V, whereas 5/21 (24%) carry pathogenic variants that affect the S4 segment and its cytoplasmic loop within the domain IV. In addition, we identified six novel pathogenic variants in SCN2A. While acetazolamide was previously reported as beneficial in SCN2A-associated EA in one case, our data show a conflicting response in 8 additional patients treated with acetazolamide: three of them profited from acetazolamide treatment, while 5/8 did not.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study describes the heterogeneous clinical spectrum of SCN2A-associated EA, identifies two mutational hotspots and shows positive effects of acetazolamide in about 50%.

Vertical force distribution in the paws of sound Labrador retrievers during walking

In contrast to gait analysis in humans, where pedobarography is an integral part of biomechanical studies, veterinary researchers have rarely investigated vertical force distribution (VFD) in the paws of dogs. The aim of this study was to investigate the VFD of peak of vertical force (PFz), vertical impulse (IFz) and time of occurrence of PFz during stance phase (TPFz) in 20 sound, adult Labrador retrievers walking normally on a pressure plate. A technique was used that divided the canine paw prints into quadrants. A general linear model was introduced to investigate the effects of forelimbs/hindlimbs, body side, and medial/lateral and cranial/caudal quadrants on VFD as they related to the total force (sum of all PFz/IFz values). For PFz and IFz, there were significantly greater effects on VFD in the lateral quadrants compared to the medial quadrants, respectively (6.49 ± 2.56% vs. 6.01 ± 2.60% and 6.62 ± 3.06% vs. 5.88 ± 3.21%; P < 0.001), in the forelimbs compared to the hindlimbs (8.02 ± 2.13% vs. 4.48 ± 1.61% and 8.02 ± 2.83% vs. 4.48 ± 2.36%; P < 0.001), and in the cranial quadrants compared to the caudal quadrants (7.87 ± 2.09% vs. 4.63 ± 1.93% and 8.57 ± 2.17% vs. 3.88 ± 1.98%; P < 0.001). The cranial/caudal ratio was higher in the hindlimbs than in the forelimbs (PFz: 2.10 ± 0.45 vs. 1.65 ± 0.32; P = 0.001; and IFz: 3.35 ± 0.80 vs. 2.04 ± 0.46; P < 0.001). The TPFz was reached earlier in the hindlimbs than in the forelimbs (46.86 ± 19.16% vs. 54.08 ± 19.62%; P < 0.001) and in the caudal quadrant than in the cranial quadrant (32.57 ± 5.77% vs. 68.37 ± 10.01%; P < 0.001). These data from sound Labrador retrievers could be used as a basis for future research investigating orthopedically- and/or neurologically-impaired animals.

Accessible Content and Accessibility Experiences: The Interplay of Declarative and Experiential Information in Judgment

Recall tasks render 2 distinct sources of information available: the recalled content and the experienced ease or difficulty with which it can be brought to mind. Because retrieving many pieces of information is more difficult than retrieving only a few, reliance on accessible content and subjective accessibility experiences leads to opposite judgmental outcomes. People are likely to base judgments on accessibility experiences when they adopt a heuristic processing strategy and the informational value of the experience is not called into question. When the experience is considered nondiagnostic, or when a systematic processing strategy is adopted, people rely on accessible content. Implications for the operation of the availability heuristic and the emergence of knowledge accessibility effects are discussed.

The Bigger, the Better? The Influence of Urban Green Space Design on Cooling Effects for Residential Areas

It is well known that the cooling effect of an urban green space extends into its surroundings, cooling the immediate environment and mitigating urban heat problems. However, the effects of size, shape, and type of an urban green space on cooling remain uncertain. The objectives of our study were to quantify and compare the strength of the cooling effects of urban parks and forests, to determine how far the cooling effects extend into the surrounding residential environment, and to better understand how temperature gradients are driven by physical characteristics of the green space and the surroundings. Mobile air temperature measurements were performed in 62 urban parks and forests in the city of Leipzig, Germany, in the summer of 2013. Three indicators of cooling were calculated: the change in temperature (ΔT) at the park-width distance, the maximum ΔT, and the cooling distance. The relationships of these variables to the physical characteristics of the green spaces and their surroundings were examined in multiple regression models. Analyzing all three indicators revealed that cooling effects were greater in urban forests than in parks. Cooling increased with increasing size but in a different manner for forests and parks, whereas the influence of shape was the same for forests and parks. Generally, the characteristics of the green spaces were more important than the characteristics of the residential surroundings. These findings have the potential to assist in better planning and designing of urban green spaces to increase their cooling effects.

Surveillance and Outbreak Response Management System (SORMAS) to support the control of the Ebola virus disease outbreak in West Africa

In the context of controlling the current outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD), the World Health Organization claimed that 'critical determinant of epidemic size appears to be the speed of implementation of rigorous control measures', i.e. immediate follow-up of contact persons during 21 days after exposure, isolation and treatment of cases, decontamination, and safe burials. We developed the Surveillance and Outbreak Response Management System (SORMAS) to improve efficiency and timeliness of these measures. We used the Design Thinking methodology to systematically analyse experiences from field workers and the Ebola Emergency Operations Centre (EOC) after successful control of the EVD outbreak in Nigeria. We developed a process model with seven personas representing the procedures of EVD outbreak control. The SORMAS system architecture combines latest In-Memory Database (IMDB) technology via SAP HANA (in-memory, relational database management system), enabling interactive data analyses, and established SAP cloud tools, such as SAP Afaria (a mobile device management software). The user interface consists of specific front-ends for smartphones and tablet devices, which are independent from physical configurations. SORMAS allows real-time, bidirectional information exchange between field workers and the EOC, ensures supervision of contact follow-up, automated status reports, and GPS tracking. SORMAS may become a platform for outbreak management and improved routine surveillance of any infectious disease. Furthermore, the SORMAS process model may serve as framework for EVD outbreak modeling.

A quantitative review of urban ecosystem service assessments: concepts, models, and implementation

Although a number of comprehensive reviews have examined global ecosystem services (ES), few have focused on studies that assess urban ecosystem services (UES). Given that more than half of the world's population lives in cities, understanding the dualism of the provision of and need for UES is of critical importance. Which UES are the focus of research, and what types of urban land use are examined? Are models or decision support systems used to assess the provision of UES? Are trade-offs considered? Do studies of UES engage stakeholders? To address these questions, we analyzed 217 papers derived from an ISI Web of Knowledge search using a set of standardized criteria. The results indicate that most UES studies have been undertaken in Europe, North America, and China, at city scale. Assessment methods involve bio-physical models, Geographical Information Systems, and valuation, but few study findings have been implemented as land use policy.

Comparison of Obstetric Efficacy and Safety of the Kiwi OmniCup with Conventional Vacuum Extraction

Purpose: The aim of the present study was to compare the safety and efficacy of the Kiwi OmniCup system with conventional vacuum delivery. Methods: A retrospective study of operative vaginal deliveries was done for 4682 births. The procedures included 217 operative vaginal deliveries (4.6 %), 79 of which were done using conventional vacuum extraction (37 %) and 138 using the Kiwi system (63 %). Results: Use of the Kiwi system was associated with a significant reduction in episiotomies (61 vs. 76 % in the control group; p < 0.05). The rates of successful completion of birth were comparable for the two systems (94 % with the Kiwi system and 99 % with conventional vacuum delivery). Cup detachment occurred significantly more often in the Kiwi group (p < 0.005), requiring a change to a different method of birth significantly more often. It was necessary to change the procedure significantly more often from the mid-pelvis (p < 0.05). The incidence of maternal and foetal injuries was similar for the two systems. Conclusions: With regard to obstetric efficacy and safety and foetal and maternal injuries, the Kiwi system is an acceptable alternative to the conventional vacuum cup. The advantages of the Kiwi system are its significantly lower episiotomy rate and its ease and rapidity of use.

Technical complications during removal of locking screws from locking compression plates: a prospective multicenter study

PURPOSE

To assess the risk for technical complications in patients undergoing removal of locking compression plates (LCP) with head locking screws.

METHODS

A total of 205 patients who were scheduled for implant removal surgery after a healed fracture of the femur, tibia, humerus, distal radius, or clavicle in nine Austrian clinics were prospectively included in the study, all of whom had previously undergone fracture fixation by plates, with titanium implants used in 98 % of the patients. Intraoperative technical complications and the methods used to solve them were documented by the surgeon.

RESULTS

During the course of this study, a total of 1,462 locking screws were removed from 204 LCPs. While 95 % of these screws could be removed without difficulties, technical complications were reported for 41 patients with 78 screws which could not be removed with standard screwdrivers and required the use of additional instruments. The estimated risk for the occurrence of at least one technical complication during implant removal surgery was 20.1 %. The most frequently observed complications were screws that could not be loosened because they were jammed in the LCP, screws with a damaged recess in which the screwdriver turned freely, as well as a combination of both events. The majority of these screws could be removed with the use of a conical extraction screw or by drilling off the screw head. In one patient, an intraoperative refracture of the humerus occurred during plate removal. Even though there is a rate of 20 % for technical complications when removing the implants, only a few patients experience a clinical impact.

CONCLUSIONS

Titanium LCPs are prone to technical complications during implant removal, but the majority of the issues can be solved using special techniques.

Simulating Demography and Housing Demand in an Urban Region under Scenarios of Growth and Shrinkage

After the fall of the Berlin wall in 1989, demographic decline and urban shrinkage brought massive changes in the housing stock in East German cities. Urban planners and policy makers face complex problems caused by the resulting vacancies and demolitions and the handling of urban brownfields in the inner city. At the same time, cities are under ongoing pressure of suburbanisation. Because existing models focus mainly on demographic and urban growth and their impact on housing stocks, we present a simulation model that is able to compute both growth and shrinkage processes. We uncover nonlinear dynamics and feedbacks between demography, housing preference, and supply of housing space. The simulation results show that, despite population decline, the increasing number of single households leads to a growing total housing demand in the central parts of the study area. Beyond this area, residential vacancies in multistorey housing segments will remain regardless of population growth. At the same time, the simulations show that, despite population shrinkage and an overall oversupply of flats, there is a negative net demand for flats in affordable prefabricated housing estates as the percentage of low-income households increases. These findings will help planners modify or adapt their visions of the residential function in shrinking cities and to adjust current programmes of renewal and restructuring.

[Cognitive deterioration after cardiosurgery]

Over 100,000 heart surgeries are performed in Germany annually. Although severe neurological complications like ischaemic strokes have meanwhile become rare occurrences, subtle neuropsychological changes are still frequently recognized after major heart surgeries. The hitherto unsolved problem of postoperative cognitive decline (POCD) is portrayed in this article. Multifactorial aetiologies including microembolism and preoperative risk factors are supposed to play a significant role in POCD. A variety of neuroprotective strategies such as intraoperative microemboli filtration have been suggested to minimize cerebral risks. The utility of neuroprotective methods has recently been verified in randomized studies.

Omnipresent Sprawl? A Review of Urban Simulation Models with Respect to Urban Shrinkage

Simulation models on urban land-use change help in understanding urban systems and assist in urban planning. One of the challenges of simulating urban regions in Europe as well as in North America or Japan is urban shrinkage, where deindustrialisation, massive population losses, and ageing cause unforeseen (or unexpected) commercial and housing vacancies in cities. In order to set up a conceptual framework for model improvement to assist such challenges, we review recent urban land-use-change simulation models, using four different modelling approaches: system dynamics, linked transport — urban models, cellular automata, and agent-based modelling. The focus of the review is to assess the causalities and feedback mechanisms that were implemented in these models. The results show that simulation models are very heterogeneous in implemented mechanisms leading to urban land-use dynamics. No single model fulfils all of the criteria required to model urban shrinkage in a spatially explicit way. However, system-dynamic models that are documented in the literature can serve as a good starting point for spatially nonexplicit simulation, and one example was found for linked transport — urban models which encompasses aspects of urban shrinkage. The potential of cellular automata is unclear as spatially explicit data on vacancies to feed this class of models is usually not available. Agent-based models appear to be the most promising approach for spatially explicit modelling of urban shrinkage.

[Trauma hospital. Knee arthroplasty as primary therapy for proximal tibial fracture]

Ten patients aged 55-85 years with a tibial head fracture AO B3 or C3 were treated primarily by implantation of an endoprosthesis. There were one unilateral, three superficial, and six revision-type prostheses. Follow-up was 6 months to 3 years; two patients were lost to follow-up. There were no intra- or postoperative complications except one deep infection which could be cured by repeated arthroscopic lavage. At last follow-up all eight patients were completely or almost pain free; the extension deficit was less than 10 degrees , and flexion was 100 degrees or more. Primary endoprosthetic replacement of the knee joint is a valuable procedure for the treatment of complex tibial head fractures in elderly patients.

[Acute headache in a case of cerebral cavernomas]

We report a case of a 52-year-old female patient with known cerebral cavernomas and acute headache. A cranial CT scan excluded an intracranial bleeding. Cavernomas are rare vascular malformations of the venous blood system (synon. cavernous angiomas) with a slow blood flow. Clinical manifestation is presented between an age of 30-50 years with mostly unspecific neurological symptoms like headache, nausea, vomiting and dizziness, but also epileptic seizures and bleedings may occur. In general, therapy is symptomatic. In cases of seizures, however, anticonvulsive treatment is indicated. Operation can be discussed for peripheral localized cavernomas with bleeding or for refractory seizures. If antiplatelet or anticoagulation therapy is necessary due to other diseases (coronary heart disease, atrial fibrillation, thrombosis, pulmonary embolism), cerebral cavernomas are not considered as an absolute contraindication. The risk for an ischemic stroke under atrial fibrillation (5-20%), for example, is higher than the risk for bleeding of a cerebral cavernoma under anticoagulation therapy.