Effects and cost of different strategies to eliminate hepatitis C virus transmission in Pakistan: a modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

The WHO elimination strategy for hepatitis C virus advocates scaling up screening and treatment to reduce global hepatitis C incidence by 80% by 2030, but little is known about how this reduction could be achieved and the costs of doing so. We aimed to evaluate the effects and cost of different strategies to scale up screening and treatment of hepatitis C in Pakistan and determine what is required to meet WHO elimination targets for incidence.

METHODS

We adapted a previous model of hepatitis C virus transmission, treatment, and disease progression for Pakistan, calibrating using available data to incorporate a detailed cascade of care for hepatitis C with cost data on diagnostics and hepatitis C treatment. We modelled the effect on various outcomes and costs of alternative scenarios for scaling up screening and hepatitis C treatment in 2018-30. We calibrated the model to country-level demographic data for 1960-2015 (including population growth) and to hepatitis C seroprevalence data from a national survey in 2007-08, surveys among people who inject drugs (PWID), and hepatitis C seroprevalence trends among blood donors. The cascade of care in our model begins with diagnosis of hepatitis C infection through antibody screening and RNA confirmation. Diagnosed individuals are then referred to care and started on treatment, which can result in a sustained virological response (effective cure). We report the median and 95% uncertainty interval (UI) from 1151 modelled runs.

FINDINGS

One-time screening of 90% of the 2018 population by 2030, with 80% referral to treatment, was projected to lead to 13·8 million (95% UI 13·4-14·1) individuals being screened and 350 000 (315 000-385 000) treatments started annually, decreasing hepatitis C incidence by 26·5% (22·5-30·7) over 2018-30. Prioritised screening of high prevalence groups (PWID and adults aged ≥30 years) and rescreening (annually for PWID, otherwise every 10 years) are likely to increase the number screened and treated by 46·8% and decrease incidence by 50·8% (95% UI 46·1-55·0). Decreasing hepatitis C incidence by 80% is estimated to require a doubling of the primary screening rate, increasing referral to 90%, rescreening the general population every 5 years, and re-engaging those lost to follow-up every 5 years. This approach could cost US$8·1 billion, reducing to $3·9 billion with lowest costs for diagnostic tests and drugs, including health-care savings, and implementing a simplified treatment algorithm.

INTERPRETATION

Pakistan will need to invest about 9·0% of its yearly health expenditure to enable sufficient scale up in screening and treatment to achieve the WHO hepatitis C elimination target of an 80% reduction in incidence by 2030.

FUNDING

UNITAID.

Health-related quality of life in HIV/AIDS patients on antiretroviral therapy at a tertiary care facility in Zimbabwe

Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is a broad concept reflecting a patient's general subjective perception of the effect of an illness or intervention on physical, psychological and social aspects of their daily life. HRQoL among patients infected with HIV has become an important indicator of impact of disease and treatment outcomes. A cross-sectional survey was carried out at Chitungwiza Central Hospital, Zimbabwe, to assess HRQoL in patients with HIV/AIDS receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART), using two validated instruments. The HIV/AIDS-targeted quality of life (HAT-QoL) and EuroQoL Five-dimensions-Three-level (EQ-5D-3L) instruments were used to assess HRQoL. Internal consistency reliability and convergent validity of the two instruments were also evaluated. For construct validity, the relationships between HRQoL scores and socio-economic and HIV/AIDS-related characteristics were explored. The median scores for the HAT-QoL dimensions ranged from 33.3 (financial worries) to 100 (HIV mastery). A considerably low HAT-QoL dimension score of 50.0 was observed for sexual function. There were ceiling effects for all HAT-QoL dimension scores except for financial worries and disclosure worries. Floor effects were observed for financial worries and sexual function. The median of the EQ-5D-3L index and visual analogue scale (VAS) was 0.81 and 79.0, respectively. There were no floor or ceiling effects for both the EQ-5D-3L index and VAS. The overall scale Cronbach's alpha was 0.83 for HAT-Qol and 0.67 for EQ-5D-3L. HAT-QoL demonstrated good convergent validity with EQ-5D index (0.58) and VAS (0.40). A higher level of HRQoL was positively and significantly related to income, education and employment. The patients' self-reported HRQoL was generally satisfactory in all the HAT-QoL dimensions as well as the two components on the EQ-5D-3L instrument. The two instruments demonstrated good measurement properties in HIV/AIDS patients receiving ART and have potential for use, alongside biomarkers, in monitoring outcomes of interventions.

Incidence and pattern of 12 years of reported transfusion adverse events in Zimbabwe: a retrospective analysis

BACKGROUND

Haemovigilance hinges on a systematically structured reporting system, which unfortunately does not always exist in resource-limited settings. We determined the incidence and pattern of transfusion-related adverse events reported to the National Blood Service Zimbabwe.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective review of the transfusion-event records of the National Blood Service Zimbabwe was conducted covering the period from 1 January 1999 to 31 December 2011. All transfusion-related event reports received during the period were analysed.

RESULTS

A total of 308 transfusion adverse events (0.046%) were reported for 670,625 blood components distributed. The majority (61.6%) of the patients who experienced an adverse event were female. The median age was 36 years (range, 1-89 years). The majority (68.8%) of the adverse events were acute transfusion reactions consisting of febrile non-haemolytic transfusion reactions (58.5%), minor allergies (31.6%), haemolytic reactions (5.2%), severe allergic reactions (2.4%), anaphylaxis (1.4%) and hypotension (0.9%). Two-thirds (66.6%) of the adverse events occurred following administration of whole blood, although only 10.6% of the blood was distributed as whole blood. Packed cells, which accounted for 75% of blood components distributed, were associated with 20.1% of the events.

DISCUSSION

The incidence of suspected transfusion adverse events was generally lower than the incidences reported globally in countries with well-established haemovigilance systems. The administration of whole blood was disproportionately associated with transfusion adverse events. The pattern of the transfusion adverse events reported here highlights the probable differences in practice between different settings. Under-reporting of transfusion events is rife in passive reporting systems.

Cost and cost-effectiveness of a simplified treatment model with direct-acting antivirals for chronic hepatitis C in Cambodia

BACKGROUND & AIMS

In 2016, Médecins Sans Frontières established the first general population Hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening and treatment site in Cambodia, offering free direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment. This study analysed the cost-effectiveness of this intervention.

METHODS

Costs, quality adjusted life years (QALYs) and cost-effectiveness of the intervention were projected with a Markov model over a lifetime horizon, discounted at 3%/year. Patient-level resource-use and outcome data, treatment costs, costs of HCV-related healthcare and EQ-5D-5L health states were collected from an observational cohort study evaluating the effectiveness of DAA treatment under full and simplified models of care compared to no treatment; other model parameters were derived from literature. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (cost/QALY gained) were compared to an opportunity cost-based willingness-to-pay threshold for Cambodia ($248/QALY).

RESULTS

The total cost of testing and treatment per patient for the full model of care was $925(IQR $668-1631), reducing to $376(IQR $344-422) for the simplified model of care. EQ-5D-5L values varied by fibrosis stage: decompensated cirrhosis had the lowest value, values increased during and following treatment. The simplified model of care was cost saving compared to no treatment, while the full model of care, although cost-effective compared to no treatment ($187/QALY), cost an additional $14 485/QALY compared to the simplified model, above the willingness-to-pay threshold for Cambodia. This result is robust to variation in parameters.

CONCLUSIONS

The simplified model of care was cost saving compared to no treatment, emphasizing the importance of simplifying pathways of care for improving access to HCV treatment in low-resource settings.

Cost-effectiveness of mass screening for Hepatitis C virus among all inmates in an Irish prison

BACKGROUND

In Irish prisons, there is a high proportion of people who inject drugs (PWID; 26%) and a high prevalence of HCV (16%), making prison a high priority setting for HCV testing and treatment. We evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a mass HCV screening intervention in Mountjoy Prison, Dublin, compared to the standard-of-care of intermittent screening on committal.

METHODS

Primary cost data was collected from the intervention using an overall provider perspective. Standard-of-care (SOC) costs were estimated through interview. All costs were inflated to 2020 Euros. An HCV transmission and disease progression model among incarcerated and community PWID and ex-injectors was calibrated to the Dublin HCV epidemic, allowing inclusion of population-level health benefits. The model used intervention data, suggesting 419 individuals were screened, 50 HCV infections diagnosed and 32 individuals initiated treatment, to project the resulting costs and health benefits (quality adjusted life years or QALYs) over 50 years with 5% discounting. The incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER), cost per QALY gained, was estimated for the screening intervention compared to the standard-of-care. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) determined the probability that the intervention was cost-effective compared to a willingness-to-pay threshold of €30,000/QALY as used in Ireland. The ICER for 1- or 3-yearly mass screening in all Dublin prisons was also calculated.

RESULTS

The total direct costs of the intervention (not including treatment drug costs) was €82,392, with most costs being due to staff (43%) and overhead or management costs (38%). Despite having little epidemiological impact due to the small numbers treated, over 50 years the incremental cost of the intervention was €36,592 and 3.8 QALYs were gained, giving a mean ICER of €9,552/QALY. The majority (84%) of PSA runs were below the willingness-to-pay threshold. Yearly mass screening had an ICER of €2,729/QALY compared to SOC and gave a higher net monetary benefit (€7,393,382) than screening every 3 years (€6,252,816).

CONCLUSION

Prison mass screening could be a cost-effective initiative for increasing testing and treatment of HCV in Ireland.

Cost effectiveness of adding nucleic acid testing to hepatitis B, hepatitis C, and human immunodeficiency virus screening of blood donations in Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to assess the cost effectiveness of introducing individual-donation nucleic acid testing (ID-NAT), in addition to serologic tests, compared with the exclusive use of serologic tests for the identification of hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) I and II among blood donors in Zimbabwe.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

The costs, health consequences, and cost effectiveness of adding ID-NAT to serologic tests, compared with serologic testing alone, were estimated from a health care perspective using a decision-analytic model.

RESULTS

The introduction of ID-NAT in addition to serologic tests would lower the risk of HBV, HCV, and HIV transmission to 46.9, 0.3, and 2.7 per 100,000 donations, respectively. ID-NAT would prevent an estimated 25, 6, and 9 HBV, HCV, and HIV transfusion-transmitted infections per 100,000 donations, respectively. The introduction of this intervention would result in an estimated 212 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is estimated at US$17,774/QALY, a value far more than three times the gross national income per capita for Zimbabwe.

CONCLUSION

Although the introduction of NAT could further improve the safety of the blood supply, current evidence suggests that it cannot be considered cost effective. Reducing the test costs for NAT through efficient donor recruitment, negotiating the price of reagents, and the efficient use of technology will improve cost effectiveness.

An intensive model of care for hepatitis C virus screening and treatment with direct-acting antivirals in people who inject drugs in Nairobi, Kenya: a model-based cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment is essential for eliminating HCV in people who inject drugs (PWID), but has limited coverage in resource-limited settings. We measured the cost-effectiveness of a pilot HCV screening and treatment intervention using directly observed therapy among PWID attending harm reduction services in Nairobi, Kenya.

DESIGN

We utilized an existing model of HIV and HCV transmission among current and former PWID in Nairobi to estimate the cost-effectiveness of screening and treatment for HCV, including prevention benefits versus no screening and treatment. The cure rate of treatment and costs for screening and treatment were estimated from intervention data, while other model parameters were derived from literature. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated over a life-time horizon from the health-care provider's perspective. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.

SETTING

Nairobi, Kenya.

POPULATION

PWID.

MEASUREMENTS

Treatment costs, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (cost per disability-adjusted life year averted).

FINDINGS

The cost per disability-adjusted life-year averted for the intervention was $975, with 92.1% of the probabilistic sensitivity analyses simulations falling below the per capita gross domestic product for Kenya ($1509; commonly used as a suitable threshold for determining whether an intervention is cost-effective). However, the intervention was not cost-effective at the opportunity cost-based cost-effectiveness threshold of $647 per disability-adjusted life-year averted. Sensitivity analyses showed that the intervention could provide more value for money by including modelled estimates for HCV disease care costs, assuming lower drug prices ($75 instead of $728 per course) and excluding directly-observed therapy costs.

CONCLUSIONS

The current strategy of screening and treatment for hepatitis C virus (HCV) among people who inject drugs in Nairobi is likely to be highly cost-effective with currently available cheaper drug prices, if directly-observed therapy is not used and HCV disease care costs are accounted for.

Modelling the impact of HIV and hepatitis C virus prevention and treatment interventions among people who inject drugs in Kenya

OBJECTIVES

People who inject drugs (PWID) in Kenya have high HIV (range across settings: 14-26%) and hepatitis C virus (HCV; 11-36%) prevalence. We evaluated the impact of existing and scaled-up interventions on HIV and HCV incidence among PWID in Kenya.

DESIGN

HIV and HCV transmission model among PWID, calibrated to Nairobi and Kenya's Coastal region.

METHODS

For each setting, we projected the impact (percent of HIV/HCV infections averted in 2020) of existing coverages of antiretroviral therapy (ART; 63-79%), opioid agonist therapy (OAT; 8-13%) and needle and syringe programmes (NSP; 45-61%). We then projected the impact (reduction in HIV/HCV incidence over 2021-2030), of scaling-up harm reduction [Full harm reduction ('Full HR'): 50% OAT, 75% NSP] and/or HIV (UNAIDS 90-90-90) and HCV treatment (1000 PWID over 2021-2025) and reducing sexual risk (by 25/50/75%). We estimated HCV treatment levels needed to reduce HCV incidence by 90% by 2030.

RESULTS

In 2020, OAT and NSP averted 46.0-50.8% (range of medians) of HIV infections and 50.0-66.1% of HCV infections, mostly because of NSP. ART only averted 12.9-39.8% of HIV infections because of suboptimal viral suppression (28-48%). Full HR and ART could reduce HIV incidence by 51.5-64% and HCV incidence by 84.6-86.6% by 2030. Also halving sexual risk could reduce HIV incidence by 68.0-74.1%. Alongside full HR, treating 2244 PWID over 2021-2025 could reduce HCV incidence by 90% by 2030.

CONCLUSION

Existing interventions are having substantial impact on HIV and HCV transmission in Kenya. However, to eliminate HIV and HCV, further scale-up is needed with reductions in sexual risk and HCV treatment.

Progress on the elimination of viral hepatitis in Zimbabwe: A review of the policies, strategies and challenges

Very few low-income countries have developed national plans to achieve the viral hepatitis elimination targets set in the World Health Organization (WHO) strategy. We reviewed the policy environment, strategies and challenges on the fight against viral hepatitis in Zimbabwe. The review focussed on the Ministry of Health and Child Care (MoHCC) policy documents, strategic plans and reports. We performed key informant interviews to enhance evidence generated from the document review. Twelve documents were reviewed and interviews with 10 key informants were completed. The MoHCC established a technical working group to work towards elimination of viral hepatitis. The technical working group drafted a strategic plan for elimination of viral hepatitis; however, it is still awaiting implementation. Key strategies that are working well include screening of donated blood for transfusion, safe injection practices and hepatitis B virus (HBV) three-dose vaccination. Current challenges in the drive towards elimination of viral hepatitis include poor to non-existent surveillance systems, lack of epidemiological data, absence of the HBV vaccine birth dose and lack of systematic screening and treatment services for viral hepatitis. In conclusion, despite political will demonstrated towards achieving viral hepatitis elimination, substantial investment and work are required to implement the strategic plan and realize significant success.

Cost-effectiveness of screening and treatment using direct-acting antivirals for chronic Hepatitis C virus in a primary care setting in Karachi, Pakistan

Despite the availability of effective direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatments for Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, many people remain undiagnosed and untreated. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of a Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) HCV screening and treatment programme within a primary health clinic in Karachi, Pakistan. A health state transition Markov model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of the MSF programme. Programme cost and outcome data were analysed retrospectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated in terms of incremental cost (2016 US$) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted from the provider's perspective over a lifetime horizon. The robustness of the model was evaluated using deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA). The ICER for implementing testing and treatment compared to no programme was US$450/DALY averted, with 100% of PSA runs falling below the per capita Gross Domestic Product threshold for cost-effective interventions for Pakistan (US$1,422). The ICER increased to US$532/DALY averted assuming national HCV seroprevalence (5.5% versus 33% observed in the intervention). If the cost of liver disease care was included (adapted from resource use data from Cambodia which has similar GDP to Pakistan), the ICER dropped to US$148/DALY, while it became cost-saving if a recently negotiated reduced drug cost of $75/treatment course was assumed (versus $282 in base-case) in addition to cost of liver disease care. In conclusion, screening and DAA treatment for HCV infection are expected to be highly cost-effective in Pakistan, supporting the expansion of similar screening and treatment programmes across Pakistan.

Integrating Hepatitis C Care for opioid substitution treatment patients attending general practice: Feasibility, Clinical and Cost Effectiveness (Preprint)

Background

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Cost and cost-effectiveness of a real-world HCV treatment program among HIV-infected individuals in Myanmar

Introduction

Over half of those hepatitis C virus (HCV)/HIV coinfected live in low-income and middle-income countries, and many remain undiagnosed or untreated. In 2016, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) established a direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment programme for people HCV/HIV coinfected in Myanmar. The purpose of our study was to evaluate the real-world cost and cost-effectiveness of this programme, and potential cost-effectiveness if implemented by the Ministry of Health (MoH).

Methods

Costs (patient-level microcosting) and treatment outcomes were collected from the MSF prospective cohort study in Dawei, Myanmar. A Markov model was used to assess cost-effectiveness of the programme compared with no HCV treatment from a health provider perspective. Estimated lifetime and healthcare costs (in 2017 US$) and health outcomes (in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs)) were simulated to calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), compared with a willingness-to-pay threshold of per capita Gross Domestic Product in Myanmar ($1250). We evaluated cost-effectiveness with updated quality-assured generic DAA prices and potential cost-effectiveness of a proposed simplified treatment protocol with updated DAA prices if implemented by the MoH.

Results

From November 2016 to October 2017, 122 with HIV/HCV-coinfected patients were treated with DAAs (46% with cirrhosis), 96% (n=117) achieved sustained virological response. Mean treatment costs were $1229 (without cirrhosis) and $1971 (with cirrhosis), with DAA drugs being the largest contributor to cost. Compared with no treatment, the program was cost-effective (ICER $634/DALY averted); more so with updated prices for quality-assured generic DAAs (ICER $488/DALY averted). A simplified treatment protocol delivered by the MoH could be cost-effective if associated with similar outcomes (ICER $316/DALY averted).

Conclusions

Using MSF programme data, the DAA treatment programme for HCV among HIV-coinfected individuals is cost-effective in Myanmar, and even more so with updated DAA prices. A simplified treatment protocol could enhance cost-effectiveness if further rollout demonstrates it is not associated with worse treatment outcomes.

The healthcare system costs of hip fracture care in South Africa

Despite rapidly ageing populations, data on healthcare costs associated with hip fracture in Sub-Saharan Africa are limited. We estimated high direct medical costs for managing hip fracture within the public healthcare system in SA. These findings should support policy decisions on budgeting and planning of hip fracture services.

PURPOSE

We estimated direct healthcare costs of hip fracture (HF) management in the South African (SA) public healthcare system.

METHODS

We conducted a micro-costing study to estimate costs per patient treated for HF in five regional public sector hospitals in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), SA. Two hundred consecutive, consenting patients presenting with a fragility HF were prospectively enrolled. Resources used including staff time, consumables, laboratory investigations, radiographs, operating theatre time, surgical implants, medicines, and inpatient days were collected from presentation to discharge. Counts of resources used were multiplied by unit costs, estimated from the KZN Department of Health hospital fees manual 2019/2020, in local currency (South African Rand, ZAR), and converted to 2020 US$ prices. Generalized linear models estimated total covariate-adjusted costs and cost predictors.

RESULTS

The mean unadjusted cost for HF management was US$6935 (95% CI; US$6401-7620) [ZAR114,179 (95% CI; ZAR105,468-125,335)]. The major cost driver was orthopaedics/surgical ward costs US$5904 (95% CI; 5408-6535), contributing to 85% of total cost. The covariate-adjusted cost for HF management was US$6922 (95% CI; US$6743-7118) [ZAR113,976 (95% CI; ZAR111,031-117,197)]. After covariate adjustment, total costs were higher in patients operated under general anaesthesia [US$7251 (95% CI; US$6506-7901)] compared to surgery under spinal anaesthesia US$6880 (95% CI; US$6685-7092) and no surgery US$7032 (95% CI; US$6454-7651).

CONCLUSION

Healthcare costs following a HF are high relative to the gross domestic product per capita and per capita spending on health in SA. As the population ages, this significant economic burden to the health system will increase.

Fractures in sub-Saharan Africa: epidemiology, economic impact and ethnography (Fractures-E 3): study protocol

Background: The population of older adults is growing in sub-Saharan Africa. Ageing exponentially increases fragility fracture risk. Of all global regions, Africa is projected to observe the greatest increase in fragility fractures. Fractures cause pain, disability and sometimes death, and management is expensive, often requiring complex healthcare delivery. For countries to plan future healthcare services, understanding is needed of fracture epidemiology, associated health service costs and the currently available healthcare resources. Methods:The Fractures-E 3 5-year mixed-methods research programme will investigate the epidemiology, economic impact, and treatment provision for fracture and wider musculoskeletal health in The Gambia, South Africa and Zimbabwe. These three countries are diverse in their geography, degree of urbanisation, maturity of health service infrastructure, and health profiles. The programme comprises five study types: (i) population-based cross-sectional studies to determine vertebral fracture prevalence. Secondary outcomes will include osteoarthritis and sarcopenia. Age- and sex-stratified household sampling will recruit 5030 adults aged 40 years and older; (ii) prospective cohort studies in adults aged 40 years and older will determine hip fracture incidence, associated risk factors, and outcomes over one year ( e.g. mortality, disability, health-related quality of life); (iii) economic studies of direct health costs of hip fracture with projection modelling of future national health costs and cost-effectiveness analyses of different hip fracture care pathways; (iv) national surveys of hip fracture services (including traditional bonesetters in The Gambia); and (v) ethnographic studies of hip fracture care provision and experiences will understand fracture service pathways. Conclusions:Greater understanding of current and expected fracture burdens, fracture risk factors, and existing fracture care provision, is intended to inform national clinical guidelines, health service policy and planning and future health service development in sub-Saharan Africa.

Cost-effectiveness of community-based household tuberculosis contact management for children in Cameroon and Uganda: a modelling analysis of a cluster-randomised trial

BACKGROUND

WHO recommends household contact management (HCM) including contact screening and tuberculosis-preventive treatment (TPT) for eligible children. The CONTACT trial found increased TPT initiation and completion rates when community health workers were used for HCM in Cameroon and Uganda.

METHODS

We did a cost-utility analysis of the CONTACT trial using a health-system perspective to estimate the health impact, health-system costs, and cost-effectiveness of community-based versus facility-based HCM models of care. A decision-analytical modelling approach was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the intervention compared with the standard of care using trial data on cascade of care, intervention effects, and resource use. Health outcomes were based on modelled progression to tuberculosis, mortality, and discounted disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted. Health-care resource use, outcomes, costs (2021 US$), and cost-effectiveness are presented.

FINDINGS

For every 1000 index patients diagnosed with tuberculosis, the intervention increased the number of TPT courses by 1110 (95% uncertainty interval 894 to 1227) in Cameroon and by 1078 (796 to 1220) in Uganda compared with the control model. The intervention prevented 15 (-3 to 49) tuberculosis deaths in Cameroon and 10 (-20 to 33) in Uganda. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $620 per DALY averted in Cameroon and $970 per DALY averted in Uganda.

INTERPRETATION

Community-based HCM approaches can substantially reduce child tuberculosis deaths and in our case would be considered cost-effective at willingness-to-pay thresholds of $1000 per DALY averted. Their impact and cost-effectiveness are likely to be greatest where baseline HCM coverage is lowest.

FUNDING

Unitaid and UK Medical Research Council.

A cost analysis of a simplified model for HCV screening and treatment at a tertiary hospital in Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND

The treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection using directly acting antivirals was recently adopted in the treatment guidelines of Zimbabwe. The objectives of this study were to design a simplified model of HCV care and estimate the cost of screening and treatment of hepatitis C infection at a tertiary hospital in Zimbabwe.

METHODS

We developed a model of care for HCV using WHO 2018 guidelines for the treatment of HCV infection and expert opinion. We then performed a micro-costing to estimate the costs of implementing the model of care from the healthcare sector perspective. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to explore the impact of uncertainty in input parameters on the estimated total cost of care.

RESULTS

The total cost of screening and treatment was estimated to be US$2448 (SD=$290) per patient over a 12-week treatment duration using sofosbuvir/velpatasvir. The cost of directly acting antivirals contributed 57.5% to the total cost of care. The second largest cost driver was the cost of diagnosis, US$819, contributing 34.6% to the total cost of care.

CONCLUSION

Screening and treatment of HCV-infected individuals using directly acting antivirals at a tertiary hospital in Zimbabwe may require substantial financial resources.

Cost-effectiveness of integrating paediatric tuberculosis services into child healthcare services in Africa: a modelling analysis of a cluster-randomised trial

BACKGROUND

In 2021, over one million children developed tuberculosis, resulting in 214 000 deaths, largely due to inadequate diagnosis and treatment. The diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis is limited in most high-burden countries because services are highly centralised at secondary/tertiary levels and are managed in a vertical, non-integrated way. To improve case detection and treatment among children, the World Health Organisation (WHO) recommends decentralised and integrated tuberculosis care models. The Integrating Paediatric TB Services Into Child Healthcare Services in Africa (INPUT) stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial evaluated the impact of integrating tuberculosis services into healthcare for children under five in Cameroon and Kenya, compared with usual care, finding a 10-fold increase in tuberculosis case detection in Cameroon but no effect in Kenya.

METHODS

We estimated intervention impact on healthcare outcomes, resource use, health system costs and cost-effectiveness relative to the standard of care (SoC) using a decision tree analytical approach and data from the INPUT trial. INPUT trial data on cascades, resource use and intervention diagnostic rate ratios were used to parametrise the decision tree model. Health outcomes following tuberculosis treatment were modelled in terms of mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs).

FINDINGS

For every 100 children starting antituberculosis treatment under SoC, an additional 876 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) -76 to 5518) in Cameroon and -6 (95% UI -61 to 96) in Kenya would start treatment under the intervention. Treatment success would increase by 5% in Cameroon and 9% in Kenya under the intervention compared with SoC. An estimated 350 (95% UI -31 to 2204) and 3 (95% UI -22 to 48) deaths would be prevented in Cameroon and Kenya, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the intervention compared with SoC was US$506 and US$1299 per DALY averted in Cameroon and Kenya, respectively.

INTERPRETATION

Although likely to be effective, the cost-effectiveness of integrating tuberculosis services into child healthcare services depends on baseline service coverage, tuberculosis detection and treatment outcomes.

Xpert Ultra stool testing to diagnose tuberculosis in children in Ethiopia and Indonesia: a model-based cost-effectiveness analysis

OBJECTIVES

The WHO currently recommends stool testing using GeneXpert MTB/Rif (Xpert) for the diagnosis of paediatric tuberculosis (TB). The simple one-step (SOS) stool method enables processing for Xpert testing at the primary healthcare (PHC) level. We modelled the impact and cost-effectiveness of implementing the SOS stool method at PHC for the diagnosis of paediatric TB in Ethiopia and Indonesia, compared with the standard of care.

SETTING

All children (age <15 years) presenting with presumptive TB at primary healthcare or hospital level in Ethiopia and Indonesia.

PRIMARY OUTCOME

Cost-effectiveness estimated as incremental costs compared with incremental disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) saved.

METHODS

Decision tree modelling was used to represent pathways of patient care and referral. We based model parameters on ongoing studies and surveillance, systematic literature review, and expert opinion. We estimated costs using data available publicly and obtained through in-country expert consultations. Health outcomes were based on modelled mortality and discounted life-years lost.

RESULTS

The intervention increased the sensitivity of TB diagnosis by 19-25% in both countries leading to a 14-20% relative reduction in mortality. Under the intervention, fewer children seeking care at PHC were referred (or self-referred) to higher levels of care; the number of children initiating anti-TB treatment (ATT) increased by 18-25%; and more children (85%) initiated ATT at PHC level. Costs increased under the intervention compared with a base case using smear microscopy in the standard of care resulting in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of US$132 and US$94 per DALY averted in Ethiopia and Indonesia, respectively. At a cost-effectiveness threshold of 0.5×gross domestic product per capita, the projected probability of the intervention being cost-effective in Ethiopia and Indonesia was 87% and 96%, respectively. The intervention remained cost-effective under sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

The addition of the SOS stool method to national algorithms for diagnosing TB in children is likely to be cost-effective in both Ethiopia and Indonesia.

A situational and stakeholder analysis of health technology assessment in Zimbabwe

OBJECTIVES

Systematic priority setting is necessary for achieving high-quality healthcare using limited resources in low- and middle-income countries. Health technology assessment (HTA) is a tool that can be used for systematic priority setting. The objective of this study was to conduct a stakeholder and situational analysis of HTA in Zimbabwe.

METHODS

We identified and analyzed stakeholders using the International Decision Support Initiative checklist. The identified stakeholders were invited to an HTA workshop convened at the University of Zimbabwe. We used an existing HTA situational analysis questionnaire to ask for participants' views on the need, demand, and supply of HTA. A follow-up survey was done among representatives of stakeholder organizations that failed to attend the workshop. We reviewed two health policy documents relevant to the HTA. Qualitative data from the survey and document review were analyzed using thematic analysis.

RESULTS

Forty-eight organizations were identified as stakeholders for HTA in Zimbabwe. A total of 41 respondents from these stakeholder organizations participated in the survey. Respondents highlighted that the HTA was needed for transparent decision making. The demand for HTA-related evidence was high except for the health economic and ethics dimensions, perhaps reflecting a lack of awareness. Ministry of Health was listed as a major supplier of HTA data.

CONCLUSIONS

There is no formal HTA agency in the Zimbabwe healthcare system. Various institutions make decisions on prioritization, procurement, and coverage of health services. The activities undertaken by these organizations provide context for the institutionalization of HTA in Zimbabwe.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of interventions to improve diagnosis and preventive therapy for paediatric tuberculosis in 9 sub-Saharan African countries: A modelling study

BACKGROUND

Over 1 million children aged 0 to 14 years were estimated to develop tuberculosis in 2021, resulting in over 200,000 deaths. Practical interventions are urgently needed to improve diagnosis and antituberculosis treatment (ATT) initiation in children aged 0 to 14 years and to increase coverage of tuberculosis preventive therapy (TPT) in children at high risk of developing tuberculosis disease. The multicountry CaP-TB intervention scaled up facility-based intensified case finding and strengthened household contact management and TPT provision at HIV clinics. To add to the limited health-economic evidence on interventions to improve ATT and TPT in children, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of the CaP-TB intervention.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We analysed clinic-level pre/post data to quantify the impact of the CaP-TB intervention on ATT and TPT initiation across 9 sub-Saharan African countries. Data on tuberculosis diagnosis and ATT/TPT initiation counts with corresponding follow-up time were available for 146 sites across the 9 countries prior to and post project implementation, stratified by 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 year age-groups. Preintervention data were retrospectively collected from facility registers for a 12-month period, and intervention data were prospectively collected from December 2018 to June 2021 using project-specific forms. Bayesian generalised linear mixed-effects models were used to estimate country-level rate ratios for tuberculosis diagnosis and ATT/TPT initiation. We analysed project expenditure and cascade data to determine unit costs of intervention components and used mathematical modelling to project health impact, health system costs, and cost-effectiveness. Overall, ATT and TPT initiation increased, with country-level incidence rate ratios varying between 0.8 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 0.7 to 1.0) and 2.9 (95% UI, 2.3 to 3.6) for ATT and between 1.6 (95% UI, 1.5 to 1.8) and 9.8 (95% UI, 8.1 to 11.8) for TPT. We projected that for every 100 children starting either ATT or TPT at baseline, the intervention package translated to between 1 (95% UI, -1 to 3) and 38 (95% UI, 24 to 58) deaths averted, with a median incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of US$634 per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. ICERs ranged between US$135/DALY averted in Democratic of the Congo and US$6,804/DALY averted in Cameroon. The main limitation of our study is that the impact is based on pre/post comparisons, which could be confounded.

CONCLUSIONS

In most countries, the CaP-TB intervention package improved tuberculosis treatment and prevention services for children aged under 15 years, but large variation in estimated impact and ICERs highlights the importance of local context.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This evaluation is part of the TIPPI study, registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03948698).

Cost-effectiveness and budget impact of decentralising childhood tuberculosis diagnosis in six high tuberculosis incidence countries: a mathematical modelling study

Background

The burden of childhood tuberculosis remains high globally, largely due to under-diagnosis. Decentralising childhood tuberculosis diagnosis services to lower health system levels could improve case detection, but there is little empirically based evidence on cost-effectiveness or budget impact.

Methods

In this mathematical modelling study, we assessed the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of decentralising a comprehensive diagnosis package for childhood tuberculosis to district hospitals (DH-focused) or primary health centres (PHC-focused) compared to standard of care (SOC). The project was conducted in Cambodia, Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and Uganda between August 1st, 2018 and September 30th, 2021. A mathematical model was developed to assess the health and economic outcomes of the intervention from a health system perspective. Estimated outcomes were tuberculosis cases, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). We also calculated the budget impact of nationwide implementation. The TB-Speed Decentralization study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04038632.

Findings

For the DH-focused strategy versus SOC, ICERs ranged between $263 (Cambodia) and $342 (Côte d'Ivoire) per DALY averted. For the PHC-focused strategy versus SOC, ICERs ranged between $477 (Cambodia) and $599 (Côte d'Ivoire) per DALY averted. Results were sensitive to TB prevalence and the discount rate used. The additional costs of implementing the DH-focused strategy ranged between $12.8 M (range 10.8-16.4) (Cambodia) and $50.4 M (36.5-74.4) (Mozambique), and between $13.9 M (12.6-15.6) (Sierra Leone) and $134.6 M (127.1-143.0) (Uganda) for the PHC-focused strategy.

Interpretation

The DH-focused strategy may be cost-effective in some countries, depending on the cost-effectiveness threshold used for policy making. Either intervention would require substantial early investment.

Funding

Unitaid.