Syndromic surveillance of respiratory infections during protracted conflict: experiences from northern Syria 2016-2021

OBJECTIVE

Northern Syria faces a large burden of influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory illness (SARI). This study aimed to investigate the trends of Early Warning and Response Network (EWARN) reported ILI and SARI in northern Syria between 2016 and 2021 and the potential impact of SARS-CoV-2.

METHODS

We extracted weekly EWARN data on ILI/ SARI and aggregated cases and consultations into 4-week intervals to calculate case positivity. We conducted a seasonal-trend decomposition to assess case trends in the presence of seasonal fluctuations.

RESULTS

It was observed that 4-week aggregates of ILI cases (n = 5,942,012), SARI cases (n = 114,939), ILI case positivity, and SARI case positivity exhibited seasonal fluctuations with peaks in the winter months. ILI and SARI cases in individuals aged ≥5 years surpassed those in individuals aged <5 years in late 2019. ILI cases clustered primarily in Aleppo and Idlib, whereas SARI cases clustered in Aleppo, Idlib, Deir Ezzor, and Hassakeh. SARI cases increased sharply in 2021, corresponding with a severe SARS-CoV-2 wave, compared with the steady increase in ILI cases over time.

CONCLUSION

Respiratory infections cause widespread morbidity and mortality throughout northern Syria, particularly with the emergence of SARS-CoV-2. Strengthened surveillance and access to testing and treatment are critical to manage outbreaks among conflict-affected populations.

Evaluation of prognostic risk models for postoperative pulmonary complications in adult patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a systematic review and international external validation cohort study

BACKGROUND

Stratifying risk of postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery allows clinicians to modify risk through targeted interventions and enhanced monitoring. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate prognostic models against a new consensus definition of postoperative pulmonary complications.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. The systematic review was done in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on March 1, 2020, for articles published in English that reported on risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary complications following abdominal surgery. External validation of existing models was done within a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing major abdominal surgery. Data were collected between Jan 1, 2019, and April 30, 2019, in the UK, Ireland, and Australia. Discriminative ability and prognostic accuracy summary statistics were compared between models for the 30-day postoperative pulmonary complication rate as defined by the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine Core Outcome Measures in Perioperative and Anaesthetic Care (StEP-COMPAC). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC).

FINDINGS

In total, we identified 2903 records from our literature search; of which, 2514 (86·6%) unique records were screened, 121 (4·8%) of 2514 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 29 unique prognostic models were identified. Nine (31·0%) of 29 models had score development reported only, 19 (65·5%) had undergone internal validation, and only four (13·8%) had been externally validated. Data to validate six eligible models were collected in the international external validation cohort study. Data from 11 591 patients were available, with an overall postoperative pulmonary complication rate of 7·8% (n=903). None of the six models showed good discrimination (defined as AUROCC ≥0·70) for identifying postoperative pulmonary complications, with the Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score showing the best discrimination (AUROCC 0·700 [95% CI 0·683-0·717]).

INTERPRETATION

In the pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, variability in the risk of pulmonary complications (StEP-COMPAC definition) following major abdominal surgery was poorly described by existing prognostication tools. To improve surgical safety during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond, novel risk stratification tools are required.

FUNDING

British Journal of Surgery Society.

Blood loss and transfusion risk in robotic-assisted knee arthroplasty: A retrospective analysis

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study was to compare total blood loss and the risk of receiving a blood transfusion in robotic-assisted total knee arthroplasty (TKA) and unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA) against conventional jig-based techniques.

METHODS

Robotic TKA (n = 50) and UKA (n = 50) patients were matched to contemporary controls for TKA (n = 50) and UKA (n = 50) and retrospectively analysed.

RESULTS

Robotic TKA patients experienced 23.7% less blood loss compared to conventional TKA patients (911.0 ml vs 1193.7 ml, p < 0.01), and were associated with an 83% relative risk reduction of receiving a transfusion (2% of patients vs 12%, p = 0.02). Robotic UKA patients did not demonstrate less blood loss compared to corresponding controls (821.7 ml vs 854.7 ml, p = 0.69). Both UKA groups received no transfusions.

CONCLUSIONS

Robotic surgical systems in TKA reduces blood loss and lowers the risk of requiring a blood transfusion. In UKA, robotic-assisted arthroplasty did not reduce blood loss compared to conventional arthroplasty.

Weaponizing water as an instrument of war in Syria: Impact on diarrhoeal disease in Idlib and Aleppo governorates, 2011-2019

OBJECTIVES

Investigate the weaponization of water during the Syrian conflict and the correlation of attacks on water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) infrastructure in Idlib and Aleppo governorates with trends in waterborne diseases reported by Early Warning and Response surveillance systems.

METHODS

We reviewed literature and databases to obtain information on attacks on WASH in Aleppo and Idlib governorates between 2011 and 2019. We plotted weekly trends in waterborne diseases from two surveillance systems operational in Aleppo and Idlib governorates between 2015 and early 2020.

RESULTS

The literature review noted several attacks on water and related infrastructure in both governorates, suggesting that WASH infrastructure was weaponized by state and non-state actors. Most interference with WASH in the Aleppo governorate occurred before 2019 and in the Idlib governorate in the summer of 2020. Other acute diarrhea represented >90% of cases of diarrhea; children under 5 years contributed 50% of cases. There was substantial evidence (p < 0.001) of an overall upward trend in cases of diarrheal disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Though no direct correlation can be drawn between the weaponization of WASH and the burden of waterborne infections due to multiple confounders, this research introduces important concepts on attacks on WASH and their potential impacts on waterborne diseases.

Paediatric anterior cruciate ligament injury

The number of paediatric anterior cruciate ligament injuries is rising at a greater rate than in the adult population, as a result of the increased participation of children and adolescents in sports. This review explores the key presentations, diagnostic and management plans, and prevention methods associated with paediatric anterior cruciate ligament injuries. This injury presents as an acute pop and effusion, with limitations in gait, and can be extremely debilitating. Clinical examination and magnetic resonance imaging are used to diagnose the injury. The pivot shift and Lachman test remain the most valid exams when suspecting an anterior cruciate ligament tear. Management of the injury can be surgical or non-surgical depending on the severity of the tear and associated injuries. The surgical approach chosen is determined by the patient's Tanner classification, considering potential damage to the physes of the bone. Management plans should include rehabilitation consisting of strength, proprioception and neuromuscular training, to maximise the patient's recovery. Injury prevention programmes, consisting of strength training and neuromuscular training, should be followed by young athletes to reduce anterior cruciate ligament injuries. Compliance and earlier implementation coupled with an understanding of the biomechanics of anterior cruciate ligament injuries and verbal feedback maximise the benefit of neuromuscular training.

The unique invasiveness of glioblastoma and possible drug targets on extracellular matrix

Glioblastoma, or glioblastoma multiforme (GBM), is described as one of the most invasive cancer types. Although GBM is a rare disease, with a global incidence of <10 per 100,000 people, its prognosis is extremely poor. Patient survival without treatment is ~6 months, which can be extended to around 15 months with the standard treatment protocol. Given the propensity of GBM cells to show widespread local invasion, beyond the margins seen through the best current imaging techniques, tumor margins cannot be clearly defined. Recurrence is inevitable, as the highly invasive nature of GBM means complete surgical resection of the tumor is near impossible without extensive damage to healthy surrounding brain tissue. Here, we outline GBM cell invasion in the unique environment of the brain extracellular matrix (ECM), as well as a deeper exploration of the specific mechanisms upregulated in GBMs to promote the characteristic highly invasive phenotype. Among these is the secretion of proteolytic enzymes for the destruction of the ECM, as well as discussion of a novel theory of amoeboid invasion, termed the “hydrodynamic mode of invasion”. The vast heterogeneity of GBM means that there are significant redundancies in invasive pathways, which pose challenges to the development of new treatments. In the past few decades, only one major advancement has been made in GBM treatment, namely the discovery of temozolomide. Future research should look to elucidate novel strategies for the specific targeting of the invasive cells of the tumor, to reduce recurrence rates and improve patient overall survival.