Trend of fatal poisoning at national and provincial levels in Iran from 1990 to 2015

OBJECTIVES

Comprehensive and up-to-date data on fatal injury trends are critical to identify challenges and plan priority setting. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of poisoning mortality trends across Iran.

STUDY DESIGN

The data were gathered from various resources, including death registration systems, cemetery databases of Tehran and Esfahan, the Demographic and Health Survey of 2000, and three rounds of national population and housing censuses.

METHODS

After addressing incompleteness for child and adult death data separately and using a spatio-temporal model and Gaussian process regression, the level and trend of child and adult mortality were estimated. For estimating cause-specific mortality, the cause fraction was calculated and applied to the level and trend of death.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2015, 40,586 deaths due to poisoning were estimated across the country. The poisoning-related age-standardized death rate per 100,000 was estimated to have changed from 3.08 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 2.32-4.11) in 1990 to 0.96 (95% UI: 0.73-1.25) in 2015, and the male/female ratio was 1.35 during 25 years of study with an annual percentage change of -5.4% and -4.0% for women and men, respectively. The annual mortality rate was higher among children younger than 5 years and the elderly population (≥70 years) in the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed that mortality from poisoning declined in Iran over the period from 1990 to 2015 and varied by province. Understanding the reasons for the differences of poisoning mortality by province will help in developing and implementing measures to reduce this burden in Iran.