Estimating the Epicenter of a Future Strong Earthquake in Southern California, Mexico, and Central America by Means of Natural Time Analysis and Earthquake Nowcasting

It has recently been shown in the Eastern Mediterranean that by combining natural time analysis of seismicity with earthquake networks based on similar activity patterns and earthquake nowcasting, an estimate of the epicenter location of a future strong earthquake can be obtained. This is based on the construction of average earthquake potential score maps. Here, we propose a method of obtaining such estimates for a highly seismically active area that includes Southern California, Mexico and part of Central America, i.e., the area N1035W80120. The study includes 28 strong earthquakes of magnitude M ≥7.0 that occurred during the time period from 1989 to 2020. The results indicate that there is a strong correlation between the epicenter of a future strong earthquake and the average earthquake potential score maps. Moreover, the method is also applied to the very recent 7 September 2021 Guerrero, Mexico, M7 earthquake as well as to the 22 September 2021 Jiquilillo, Nicaragua, M6.5 earthquake with successful results. We also show that in 28 out of the 29 strong M ≥7.0 EQs studied, their epicenters lie close to an estimated zone covering only 8.5% of the total area.

Self-diffusion in sodium under pressure revisited

The pressure-volume relation in sodium has been measured up to 100 GPa using high-resolution angle-dispersive synchrotron x-ray diffraction (Hanfland et al 2002 Phys. Rev. B 65 184109). In the light of these data, we show that a model suggested long ago (e.g., Varotsos et al 1978 J. Phys. C: Solid State Phys. 11 L305-15) can satisfactorily answer the long-standing question of the variation of the diffusion coefficient D under pressure P, which resulted in a curved lnD versus P plot, in the frame of a single operating mechanism (monovacancies). This is achieved without using any adjustable parameters.