Simultaneous X-Ray and Infrared Observations of Sagittarius A*'s Variability

Emission from Saggitarius A* is highly variable at both X-ray and infrared (IR) wavelengths. Observations over the last ~20 yr have revealed X-ray flares that rise above a quiescent thermal background about once per day, while faint X-ray flares from Sgr A* are undetectable below the constant thermal emission. In contrast, the IR emission of Sgr A* is observed to be continuously variable. Recently, simultaneous observations have indicated a rise in IR flux density around the same time as every distinct X-ray flare, while the opposite is not always true (peaks in the IR emission may not be coincident with an X-ray flare). Characterizing the behavior of these simultaneous X-ray/IR events and measuring any time lag between them can constrain models of Sgr A*'s accretion flow and the flare emission mechanism. Using 100+ hours of data from a coordinated campaign between the Spitzer Space Telescope and the Chandra X-ray Observatory, we present results of the longest simultaneous IR and X-ray observations of Sgr A* taken to date. The cross-correlation between the IR and X-ray light curves in this unprecedented data set, which includes four modest X-ray/IR flares, indicates that flaring in the X-ray may lead the IR by approximately 10-20 min with 68% confidence. However, the 99.7% confidence interval on the time-lag also includes zero, i.e., the flaring remains statistically consistent with simultaneity. Long-duration and simultaneous multi-wavelength observations of additional bright flares will improve our ability to constrain the flare timing characteristics and emission mechanisms, and must be a priority for Galactic Center observing campaigns.

Ensemble Prediction of a Halo Coronal Mass Ejection Using Heliospheric Imagers

The Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) and its heliospheric imagers (HIs) have provided us the possibility to enhance our understanding of the interplanetary propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). HI-based methods are able to forecast arrival times and speeds at any target and use the advantage of tracing a CME's path of propagation up to 1 AU and beyond. In our study, we use the ELEvoHI model for CME arrival prediction together with an ensemble approach to derive uncertainties in the modeled arrival time and impact speed. The CME from 3 November 2010 is analyzed by performing 339 model runs that are compared to in situ measurements from lined-up spacecraft MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging and STEREO-B. Remote data from STEREO-B showed the CME as halo event, which is comparable to an HI observer situated at L1 and observing an Earth-directed CME. A promising and easy approach is found by using the frequency distributions of four ELEvoHI output parameters, drag parameter, background solar wind speed, initial distance, and speed. In this case study, the most frequent values of these outputs lead to the predictions with the smallest errors. Restricting the ensemble to those runs, we are able to reduce the mean absolute arrival time error from 3.5 ± 2.6 to 1.6 ± 1.1 hr at 1 AU. Our study suggests that L1 may provide a sufficient vantage point for an Earth-directed CME, when observed by HI, and that ensemble modeling could be a feasible approach to use ELEvoHI operationally.