Tree mode of death and mortality risk factors across Amazon forests

The carbon sink capacity of tropical forests is substantially affected by tree mortality. However, the main drivers of tropical tree death remain largely unknown. Here we present a pan-Amazonian assessment of how and why trees die, analysing over 120,000 trees representing > 3800 species from 189 long-term RAINFOR forest plots. While tree mortality rates vary greatly Amazon-wide, on average trees are as likely to die standing as they are broken or uprooted-modes of death with different ecological consequences. Species-level growth rate is the single most important predictor of tree death in Amazonia, with faster-growing species being at higher risk. Within species, however, the slowest-growing trees are at greatest risk while the effect of tree size varies across the basin. In the driest Amazonian region species-level bioclimatic distributional patterns also predict the risk of death, suggesting that these forests are experiencing climatic conditions beyond their adaptative limits. These results provide not only a holistic pan-Amazonian picture of tree death but large-scale evidence for the overarching importance of the growth-survival trade-off in driving tropical tree mortality.

Compositional response of Amazon forests to climate change

Most of the planet's diversity is concentrated in the tropics, which includes many regions undergoing rapid climate change. Yet, while climate-induced biodiversity changes are widely documented elsewhere, few studies have addressed this issue for lowland tropical ecosystems. Here we investigate whether the floristic and functional composition of intact lowland Amazonian forests have been changing by evaluating records from 106 long-term inventory plots spanning 30 years. We analyse three traits that have been hypothesized to respond to different environmental drivers (increase in moisture stress and atmospheric CO₂ concentrations): maximum tree size, biogeographic water-deficit affiliation and wood density. Tree communities have become increasingly dominated by large-statured taxa, but to date there has been no detectable change in mean wood density or water deficit affiliation at the community level, despite most forest plots having experienced an intensification of the dry season. However, among newly recruited trees, dry-affiliated genera have become more abundant, while the mortality of wet-affiliated genera has increased in those plots where the dry season has intensified most. Thus, a slow shift to a more dry-affiliated Amazonia is underway, with changes in compositional dynamics (recruits and mortality) consistent with climate-change drivers, but yet to significantly impact whole-community composition. The Amazon observational record suggests that the increase in atmospheric CO₂ is driving a shift within tree communities to large-statured species and that climate changes to date will impact forest composition, but long generation times of tropical trees mean that biodiversity change is lagging behind climate change.

Trade-offs between carbon stocks and timber recovery in tropical forests are mediated by logging intensity

Forest degradation accounts for ~70% of total carbon losses from tropical forests. Substantial emissions are from selective logging, a land-use activity that decreases forest carbon density. To maintain carbon values in selectively logged forests, climate change mitigation policies and government agencies promote the adoption of reduced-impact logging (RIL) practices. However, whether RIL will maintain both carbon and timber values in managed tropical forests over time remains uncertain. In this study, we quantify the recovery of timber stocks and aboveground carbon at an experimental site where forests were subjected to different intensities of RIL (4, 8, and 16 trees/ha). Our census data span 20 years postlogging and 17 years after the liberation of future crop trees from competition in a tropical forest on the Guiana Shield, a globally important forest carbon reservoir. We model recovery of timber and carbon with a breakpoint regression that allowed us to capture elevated tree mortality immediately after logging. Recovery rates of timber and carbon were governed by the presence of residual trees (i.e., trees that persisted through the first harvest). The liberation treatment stimulated faster recovery of timber albeit at a carbon cost. Model results suggest a threshold logging intensity beyond which forests managed for timber and carbon derive few benefits from RIL, with recruitment and residual growth not sufficient to offset losses. Inclusion of the breakpoint at which carbon and timber gains outpaced postlogging mortality led to high predictive accuracy, including out-of-sample R² values >90%, and enabled inference on demographic changes postlogging. Our modeling framework is broadly applicable to studies that aim to quantify impacts of logging on forest recovery. Overall, we demonstrate that initial mortality drives variation in recovery rates, that the second harvest depends on old growth wood, and that timber intensification lowers carbon stocks.

Evolutionary heritage influences Amazon tree ecology

Lineages tend to retain ecological characteristics of their ancestors through time. However, for some traits, selection during evolutionary history may have also played a role in determining trait values. To address the relative importance of these processes requires large-scale quantification of traits and evolutionary relationships among species. The Amazonian tree flora comprises a high diversity of angiosperm lineages and species with widely differing life-history characteristics, providing an excellent system to investigate the combined influences of evolutionary heritage and selection in determining trait variation. We used trait data related to the major axes of life-history variation among tropical trees (e.g. growth and mortality rates) from 577 inventory plots in closed-canopy forest, mapped onto a phylogenetic hypothesis spanning more than 300 genera including all major angiosperm clades to test for evolutionary constraints on traits. We found significant phylogenetic signal (PS) for all traits, consistent with evolutionarily related genera having more similar characteristics than expected by chance. Although there is also evidence for repeated evolution of pioneer and shade tolerant life-history strategies within independent lineages, the existence of significant PS allows clearer predictions of the links between evolutionary diversity, ecosystem function and the response of tropical forests to global change.