Epidemiology and treatment of painful procedures in neonates in intensive care units

CONTEXT

Effective strategies to improve pain management in neonates require a clear understanding of the epidemiology and management of procedural pain.

OBJECTIVE

To report epidemiological data on neonatal pain collected from a geographically defined region, based on direct bedside observation of neonates.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS

Between September 2005 and January 2006, data on all painful and stressful procedures and corresponding analgesic therapy from the first 14 days of admission were prospectively collected within a 6-week period from 430 neonates admitted to tertiary care centers in the Paris region of France (11.3 millions inhabitants) for the Epidemiology of Procedural Pain in Neonates (EPIPPAIN) study.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Number of procedures considered painful or stressful by health personnel and corresponding analgesic therapy.

RESULTS

The mean (SD) gestational age and intensive care unit stay were 33.0 (4.6) weeks and 8.4 (4.6) calendar days, respectively. Neonates experienced 60,969 first-attempt procedures, with 42,413 (69.6%) painful and 18,556 (30.4%) stressful procedures; 11,546 supplemental attempts were performed during procedures including 10,366 (89.8%) for painful and 1180 (10.2%) for stressful procedures. Each neonate experienced a median of 115 (range, 4-613) procedures during the study period and 16 (range, 0-62) procedures per day of hospitalization. Of these, each neonate experienced a median of 75 (range, 3-364) painful procedures during the study period and 10 (range, 0-51) painful procedures per day of hospitalization. Of the 42,413 painful procedures, 2.1% were performed with pharmacological-only therapy; 18.2% with nonpharmacological-only interventions, 20.8% with pharmacological, nonpharmacological, or both types of therapy; and 79.2% without specific analgesia, and 34.2% were performed while the neonate was receiving concurrent analgesic or anesthetic infusions for other reasons. Prematurity, category of procedure, parental presence, surgery, daytime, and day of procedure after the first day of admission were associated with greater use of specific preprocedural analgesia, whereas mechanical ventilation, noninvasive ventilation and administration of nonspecific concurrent analgesia were associated with lower use of specific preprocedural analgesia.

CONCLUSION

During neonatal intensive care in the Paris region, large numbers of painful and stressful procedures were performed, the majority of which were not accompanied by analgesia.

Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of COVID-19: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic has spread from China to 25 countries. Local cycles of transmission have already occurred in 12 countries after case importation. In Africa, Egypt has so far confirmed one case. The management and control of COVID-19 importations heavily rely on a country's health capacity. Here we evaluate the preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against their risk of importation of COVID-19.

METHODS

We used data on the volume of air travel departing from airports in the infected provinces in China and directed to Africa to estimate the risk of importation per country. We determined the country's capacity to detect and respond to cases with two indicators: preparedness, using the WHO International Health Regulations Monitoring and Evaluation Framework; and vulnerability, using the Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index. Countries were clustered according to the Chinese regions contributing most to their risk.

FINDINGS

Countries with the highest importation risk (ie, Egypt, Algeria, and South Africa) have moderate to high capacity to respond to outbreaks. Countries at moderate risk (ie, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sudan, Angola, Tanzania, Ghana, and Kenya) have variable capacity and high vulnerability. We identified three clusters of countries that share the same exposure to the risk originating from the provinces of Guangdong, Fujian, and the city of Beijing, respectively.

INTERPRETATION

Many countries in Africa are stepping up their preparedness to detect and cope with COVID-19 importations. Resources, intensified surveillance, and capacity building should be urgently prioritised in countries with moderate risk that might be ill-prepared to detect imported cases and to limit onward transmission.

FUNDING

EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation Horizon 2020, Agence Nationale de la Recherche.

Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from Sentinel data

The threat posed by the highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza virus requires public health authorities to prepare for a human pandemic. Although pre-pandemic vaccines and antiviral drugs might significantly reduce illness rates, their stockpiling is too expensive to be practical for many countries. Consequently, alternative control strategies, based on non-pharmaceutical interventions, are a potentially attractive policy option. School closure is the measure most often considered. The high social and economic costs of closing schools for months make it an expensive and therefore controversial policy, and the current absence of quantitative data on the role of schools during influenza epidemics means there is little consensus on the probable effectiveness of school closure in reducing the impact of a pandemic. Here, from the joint analysis of surveillance data and holiday timing in France, we quantify the role of schools in influenza epidemics and predict the effect of school closure during a pandemic. We show that holidays lead to a 20-29% reduction in the rate at which influenza is transmitted to children, but that they have no detectable effect on the contact patterns of adults. Holidays prevent 16-18% of seasonal influenza cases (18-21% in children). By extrapolation, we find that prolonged school closure during a pandemic might reduce the cumulative number of cases by 13-17% (18-23% in children) and peak attack rates by up to 39-45% (47-52% in children). The impact of school closure would be reduced if it proved difficult to maintain low contact rates among children for a prolonged period.

Significant reduction of antibiotic use in the community after a nationwide campaign in France, 2002-2007

BACKGROUND

Overuse of antibiotics is the main force driving the emergence and dissemination of bacterial resistance in the community. France consumes more antibiotics and has the highest rate of beta-lactam resistance in Streptococcus pneumoniae than any other European country. In 2001, the government initiated "Keep Antibiotics Working"; the program's main component was a campaign entitled "Les antibiotiques c'est pas automatique" ("Antibiotics are not automatic") launched in 2002. We report the evaluation of this campaign by analyzing the evolution of outpatient antibiotic use in France 2000-2007, according to therapeutic class and geographic and age-group patterns.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

This evaluation is based on 2000-2007 data, including 453,407,458 individual reimbursement data records and incidence of flu-like syndromes (FLSs). Data were obtained from the computerized French National Health Insurance database and provided by the French Sentinel Network. As compared to the preintervention period (2000-2002), the total number of antibiotic prescriptions per 100 inhabitants, adjusted for FLS frequency during the winter season, changed by -26.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] -33.5% to -19.6%) over 5 years. The decline occurred in all 22 regions of France and affected all antibiotic therapeutic classes except quinolones. The greatest decrease, -35.8% (95% CI -48.3% to -23.2%), was observed among young children aged 6-15 years. A significant change of -45% in the relationship between the incidence of flu-like syndromes and antibiotic prescriptions was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

The French national campaign was associated with a marked reduction of unnecessary antibiotic prescriptions, particularly in children. This study provides a useful method for assessing public-health strategies designed to reduce antibiotic use.

A Bayesian MCMC approach to study transmission of influenza: application to household longitudinal data

We propose a transmission model to estimate the main characteristics of influenza transmission in households. The model details the risks of infection in the household and in the community at the individual scale. Heterogeneity among subjects is investigated considering both individual susceptibility and infectiousness. The model was applied to a data set consisting of the follow-up of influenza symptoms in 334 households during 15 days after an index case visited a general practitioner with virologically confirmed influenza. Estimating the parameters of the transmission model was challenging because a large part of the infectious process was not observed: only the dates when new cases were detected were observed. For each case, the data were augmented with the unobserved dates of the start and the end of the infectious period. The transmission model was included in a 3-levels hierarchical structure: (i) the observation level ensured that the augmented data were consistent with the observed data, (ii) the transmission level described the underlying epidemic process, (iii) the prior level specified the distribution of the parameters. From a Bayesian perspective, the joint posterior distribution of model parameters and augmented data was explored by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. The mean duration of influenza infectious period was estimated at 3.8 days (95 per cent credible interval, 95 per cent CI [3.1,4.6]) with a standard deviation of 2.0 days (95 per cent CI [1.1,2.8]). The instantaneous risk of influenza transmission between an infective and a susceptible within a household was found to decrease with the size of the household, and established at 0.32 person day(-1) (95 per cent CI [0.26,0.39]); the instantaneous risk of infection from the community was 0.0056 day(-1) (95 per cent CI [0.0029,0.0087]). Focusing on the differences in transmission between children (less than 15 years old) and adults, we estimated that the former were more likely to transmit than adults (posterior probability larger than 99 per cent), but that the mean duration of the infectious period was similar in children (3.6 days, 95 per cent CI [2.3,5.2]) and adults (3.9 days, 95 per cent CI [3.2,4.9]). The posterior probability that children had a larger community risk was 76 per cent and the posterior probability that they were more susceptible than adults was 79 per cent.

Impact of lockdown on COVID-19 epidemic in Île-de-France and possible exit strategies

BACKGROUND

More than half of the global population is under strict forms of social distancing. Estimating the expected impact of lockdown and exit strategies is critical to inform decision makers on the management of the COVID-19 health crisis.

METHODS

We use a stochastic age-structured transmission model integrating data on age profile and social contacts in Île-de-France to (i) assess the epidemic in the region, (ii) evaluate the impact of lockdown, and (iii) propose possible exit strategies and estimate their effectiveness. The model is calibrated to hospital admission data before lockdown. Interventions are modeled by reconstructing the associated changes in the contact matrices and informed by mobility reductions during lockdown evaluated from mobile phone data. Different types and durations of social distancing are simulated, including progressive and targeted strategies, with large-scale testing.

RESULTS

We estimate the reproductive number at 3.18 [3.09, 3.24] (95% confidence interval) prior to lockdown and at 0.68 [0.66, 0.69] during lockdown, thanks to an 81% reduction of the average number of contacts. Model predictions capture the disease dynamics during lockdown, showing the epidemic curve reaching ICU system capacity, largely strengthened during the emergency, and slowly decreasing. Results suggest that physical contacts outside households were largely avoided during lockdown. Lifting the lockdown with no exit strategy would lead to a second wave overwhelming the healthcare system, if conditions return to normal. Extensive case finding and isolation are required for social distancing strategies to gradually relax lockdown constraints.

CONCLUSIONS

As France experiences the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in lockdown, intensive forms of social distancing are required in the upcoming months due to the currently low population immunity. Extensive case finding and isolation would allow the partial release of the socio-economic pressure caused by extreme measures, while avoiding healthcare demand exceeding capacity. Response planning needs to urgently prioritize the logistics and capacity for these interventions.

The R0 package: a toolbox to estimate reproduction numbers for epidemic outbreaks

Background

Several generic methods have been proposed to estimate transmission parameters during an outbreak, especially the reproduction number. However, as of today, no dedicated software exists that implements these methods and allow comparisons.

Results

A review of generic methods used to estimate transmissibility parameters during outbreaks was carried out. Most methods used the epidemic curve and the generation time distribution. Two categories of methods were available: those estimating the initial reproduction number, and those estimating a time dependent reproduction number. We implemented five methods as an R library, developed sensitivity analysis tools for each method and provided numerical illustrations of their use. A comparison of the performance of the different methods on simulated datasets is reported.

Conclusions

This software package allows a standardized and extensible approach to the estimation of the reproduction number and generation interval distribution from epidemic curves.

Diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging for the assessment of fibrosis in chronic hepatitis C

Liver biopsy is the gold standard for assessing fibrosis but has several limitations. We evaluated a noninvasive method, so-called diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DWMRI), which measures the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) of water, for the diagnosis of liver fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV). We analyzed 20 healthy volunteers and 54 patients with chronic HCV (METAVIR: F0, n = 1; F1, n = 30; F2, n = 8; F3, n = 5; and F4, n = 10) prospectively included. Patients with moderate-to-severe fibrosis (F2-F3-F4) had hepatic ADC values lower than those without or with mild fibrosis (F0-F1; mean: 1.10 +/- 0.11 versus 1.30 +/- 0.12 x 10(-3) mm2/s) and healthy volunteers (mean: 1.44 +/- 0.02 x 10(-3) mm2/s). In discriminating patients staged F3-F4, the areas under the receiving operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were 0.92 (+/-0.04) for magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), 0.92 (+/-0.05) for elastography, 0.79 (+/-0.08) for FibroTest, 0.87 (+/-0.06) for the aspartate aminotransferase to platelets ratio index (APRI), 0.86 (+/-0.06) for the Forns index, and 0.87 (+/-0.06) for hyaluronate. In these patients, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 87%, 87%, 72%, and 94%, respectively, with an ADC cutoff level of 1.21 x 10(-3) mm2/s. In discriminating patients staged F2-F3-F4, the AUC values were 0.79 (+/-0.07) for MRI, 0.87 (+/-0.05) for elastography, 0.68 (+/-0.09) for FibroTest, 0.81 (+/-0.06) for APRI, 0.72 (+/-0.08) for the Forns index, and 0.77 (+/-0.06) for hyaluronate.

CONCLUSION

This preliminary study suggests that DWMRI compares favorably with other noninvasive tests for the presence of significant liver fibrosis.

Multiple apical plasma membrane constituents are associated with susceptibility to meconium ileus in individuals with cystic fibrosis

Variants associated with meconium ileus in cystic fibrosis were identified in 3,763 affected individuals by genome-wide association study (GWAS). Five SNPs at two loci near SLC6A14 at Xq23-24 (minimum P = 1.28 × 10(-12) at rs3788766) and SLC26A9 at 1q32.1 (minimum P = 9.88 × 10(-9) at rs4077468) accounted for ~5% of phenotypic variability and were replicated in an independent sample of affected individuals (n = 2,372; P = 0.001 and 0.0001, respectively). By incorporating the knowledge that disease-causing mutations in CFTR alter electrolyte and fluid flux across surface epithelium into a hypothesis-driven GWAS (GWAS-HD), we identified associations with the same SNPs in SLC6A14 and SLC26A9 and established evidence for the involvement of SNPs in a third solute carrier gene, SLC9A3. In addition, GWAS-HD provided evidence of association between meconium ileus and multiple genes encoding constituents of the apical plasma membrane where CFTR resides (P = 0.0002; testing of 155 apical membrane genes jointly and in replication, P = 0.022). These findings suggest that modulating activities of apical membrane constituents could complement current therapeutic paradigms for cystic fibrosis.

Underdetection of cases of COVID-19 in France threatens epidemic control

As countries in Europe gradually relaxed lockdown restrictions after the first wave, test-trace-isolate strategies became critical to maintain the incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) at low levels^1,2. Reviewing their shortcomings can provide elements to consider in light of the second wave that is currently underway in Europe. Here we estimate the rate of detection of symptomatic cases of COVID-19 in France after lockdown through the use of virological³ and participatory syndromic⁴ surveillance data coupled with mathematical transmission models calibrated to regional hospitalizations². Our findings indicate that around 90,000 symptomatic infections, corresponding to 9 out 10 cases, were not ascertained by the surveillance system in the first 7 weeks after lockdown from 11 May to 28 June 2020, although the test positivity rate did not exceed the 5% recommendation of the World Health Organization (WHO)⁵. The median detection rate increased from 7% (95% confidence interval, 6-8%) to 38% (35-44%) over time, with large regional variations, owing to a strengthening of the system as well as a decrease in epidemic activity. According to participatory surveillance data, only 31% of individuals with COVID-19-like symptoms consulted a doctor in the study period. This suggests that large numbers of symptomatic cases of COVID-19 did not seek medical advice despite recommendations, as confirmed by serological studies^6,7. Encouraging awareness and same-day healthcare-seeking behaviour of suspected cases of COVID-19 is critical to improve detection. However, the capacity of the system remained insufficient even at the low epidemic activity achieved after lockdown, and was predicted to deteriorate rapidly with increasing incidence of COVID-19 cases. Substantially more aggressive, targeted and efficient testing with easier access is required to act as a tool to control the COVID-19 pandemic. The testing strategy will be critical to enable partial lifting of the current restrictive measures in Europe and to avoid a third wave.

Long-term immune responses to vaccination in HIV-infected patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Vaccine-induced antibodies may wane more quickly in persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) than in healthy individuals. We reviewed the literature on vaccines routinely recommended in HIV-infected patients to estimate how seroprotection decreases over time in those who initially responded to immunization. For each study retrieved from the literature, the decrease of seroprotection was modeled with a log binomial generalized linear model, and data were pooled in a meta-analysis to provide estimates of seroprotection 2 and 5 years after the last vaccine administration. Our analyses confirmed that the duration of seroprotection was shorter in HIV-infected patients and that with current guidelines, a substantial proportion of patients would have lost protective antibodies before a booster was proposed. We therefore discuss the implications for the monitoring of antibody levels and timing of revaccination in these patients.

Transmission parameters of the A/H1N1 (2009) influenza virus pandemic: a review

Please cite this paper as: Boëlle P‐Y et al. (2011) Transmission parameters of the A/H1N1 (2009) influenza virus pandemic: a review. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 5(5), 306–316.

Background  The new influenza virus A/H1N1 (2009), identified in mid‐2009, rapidly spread over the world. Estimating the transmissibility of this new virus was a public health priority.

Methods  We reviewed all studies presenting estimates of the serial interval or generation time and the reproduction number of the A/H1N1 (2009) virus infection.

Results  Thirteen studies documented the serial interval from household or close‐contact studies, with overall mean 3 days (95% CI: 2·4, 3·6); taking into account tertiary transmission reduced this estimate to 2·6 days. Model‐based estimates were more variable, from 1·9 to 6 days. Twenty‐four studies reported reproduction numbers for community‐based epidemics at the town or country level. The range was 1·2–3·1, with larger estimates reported at the beginning of the pandemic. Accounting for under‐reporting in the early period of the pandemic and limiting variation because of the choice of the generation time interval, the reproduction number was between 1·2 and 2·3 with median 1·5.

Discussion  The serial interval of A/H1N1 (2009) flu was typically short, with mean value similar to the seasonal flu. The estimates of the reproduction number were more variable. Compared with past influenza pandemics, the median reproduction number was similar (1968) or slightly smaller (1889, 1918, 1957).

Predicted long-term outcome of corneal transplantation

OBJECTIVE

To analyze graft survival and the outcome of the corneal endothelium after corneal transplantation in a single model to predict the long-term prognosis of these grafts.

DESIGN

Cohort study. Data were recorded prospectively and then analyzed retrospectively.

PARTICIPANTS

One thousand one hundred forty-four consecutive eyes of 1144 patients who underwent corneal transplantation between 1992 and 2006.

INTERVENTIONS

Penetrating keratoplasty and deep anterior lamellar keratoplasty.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Slit-lamp examination and wide-field specular microscopy results. A joint analysis of endothelial cell loss and time to graft failure was undertaken. From midterm simultaneous analysis of graft survival and endothelial cell loss, long-term graft survival was predicted.

RESULTS

The observed 5- and 10-year graft survival estimates were, respectively, 74% and 64%. The average endothelial cell density (cell loss) was 2270 cells/mm(2) before surgery, 1058 cells/mm(2) (-53%) during the sixth postoperative year, and 865 cells/mm(2) (-61%) during the 10th postoperative year. Overall, the predicted graft survival estimate was 27% at 20 years and 2% at 30 years. Both observed and predicted graft survival were higher in patients who had undergone lamellar keratoplasty than in patients who had undergone penetrating keratoplasty and had normal recipient endothelium and higher in patients who had undergone penetrating keratoplasty and had normal recipient endothelium than in patients who had undergone penetrating keratoplasty and had impaired recipient endothelium.

CONCLUSIONS

For corneal diseases involving the endothelium, penetrating keratoplasty seems to be a good therapeutic approach in elderly patients because the graft life-span may be similar to the patient life expectancy. Conversely, for younger patients, penetrating keratoplasty is only a midterm therapeutic approach. For corneal diseases not involving the endothelium, deep anterior lamellar keratoplasty seems to be a promising therapeutic approach with higher long-term expected survival.

Impact of Chikungunya virus infection on health status and quality of life: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Persistent symptoms, mainly joint and muscular pain and depression, have been reported several months after Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infection. Their frequency and their impact on quality of life have not been compared with those of an unexposed population. In the present study, we aimed to describe the frequency of prolonged clinical manifestations of CHIKV infection and to measure the impact on quality of life and health care consumption in comparison with that of an unexposed population, more than one year after infection.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

In a retrospective cohort study, 199 subjects who had serologically confirmed CHIKV infection (CHIK+) were compared with 199 sero-negative subjects (CHIK-) matched for age, gender and area of residence in La Réunion Island. Following an average time of 17 months from the acute phase of infection, participants were interviewed by telephone about current symptoms, medical consumption during the last 12 months and quality of life assessed by the 12-items Short-Form Health Survey (SF-12) scale. At the time of study, 112 (56%) CHIK+ persons reported they were fully recovered. CHIK+ complained more frequently than CHIK- of arthralgia (relative risk = 1.9; 95% confidence interval: 1.6-2.2), myalgia (1.9; 1.5-2.3), fatigue (2.3; 1.8-3), depression (2.5; 1.5-4.1) and hair loss (3.8; 1.9-7.6). There was no significant difference between CHIK+ and CHIK- subjects regarding medical consumption in the past year. The mean (SD) score of the SF-12 Physical Component Summary was 46.4 (10.8) in CHIK+ versus 49.1 (9.3) in CHIK- (p = 0.04). There was no significant difference between the two groups for the Mental Component Summary.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

More than one year following the acute phase of infection, CHIK+ subjects reported more disabilities than those who were CHIK-. These persistent disabilities, however, have no significant influence on medical consumption, and the impact on quality of life is moderate.

Estimating in real time the efficacy of measures to control emerging communicable diseases

Controlling an emerging communicable disease requires prompt adoption of measures such as quarantine. Assessment of the efficacy of these measures must be rapid as well. In this paper, the authors present a framework to monitor the efficacy of control measures in real time. Bayesian estimation of the reproduction number R (mean number of cases generated by a single infectious person) during an outbreak allows them to judge rapidly whether the epidemic is under control (R < 1). Only counts and time of onset of symptoms, plus tracing information from a subset of cases, are required. Markov chain Monte Carlo and Monte Carlo sampling are used to infer the temporal pattern of R up to the last observation. The operating characteristics of the method are investigated in a simulation study of severe acute respiratory syndrome-like outbreaks. In this particular setting, control measures lacking efficacy (R > or = 1.1) could be detected after 2 weeks in at least 70% of the epidemics, with less than a 5% probability of a wrong conclusion. When control measures are efficacious (R = 0.5), this situation may be evidenced in 68% of the epidemics after 2 weeks and 92% of the epidemics after 3 weeks, with less than a 5% probability of a wrong conclusion.

Phase 2 clinical trial of 5-azacitidine, valproic acid, and all-trans retinoic acid in patients with high-risk acute myeloid leukemia or myelodysplastic syndrome

In this Phase 2 study, we evaluated the efficacy of combination of 5-azacitidine (AZA), valproic acid (VPA), and all-trans retinoic acid (ATRA) in patients with high-risk acute myeloid leukemia (AML) or myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). Treatment consisted of six cycles of AZA and VPA for 7 days, followed by ATRA for 21 days. Sixty-five patients were enrolled (median age, 72 years; 55 AML including 13 relapsed/refractory patients, 10 MDS; 30 unfavorable karyotypes). Best responses included 14 CR and 3 PR (26%), 75% of the responders and 36% of the non-responders achieving an erythroid response. Median overall survival (OS) was 12.4 months. Untreated patients had a longer OS than relapsed/refractory patients. In patients who fulfilled the 6 planned cycles, OS did not appear to depend on CR/PR achievement, suggesting that stable disease while on-treatment would be a surrogate for survival with this approach. During therapy, early platelet response and demethylation of the FZD9, ALOX12, HPN, and CALCA genes were associated with clinical response. Finally, there was no evidence for the restoration of an ATRA-induced differentiation during therapy. Epigenetic modulation deserves prospective comparisons to conventional care in patients with high-risk AML, at least in those presenting previously untreated disease and low blast count.

Comparison of routine and on-demand prescription of chest radiographs in mechanically ventilated adults: a multicentre, cluster-randomised, two-period crossover study

BACKGROUND

Present guidelines recommend routine daily chest radiographs for mechanically ventilated patients in intensive care units. However, some units use an on-demand strategy, in which chest radiographs are done only if warranted by the patient's clinical status. By comparison between routine and on-demand strategies, we aimed to establish which strategy was more efficient and effective for optimum patient care.

METHODS

In a cluster-randomised, open-label crossover study, we randomly assigned 21 intensive care units at 18 hospitals in France to use a routine or an on-demand strategy for prescription of chest radiographs during the first of two treatment periods. Units used the alternative strategy in the second period. Each treatment period lasted for the time taken for enrolment and study of 20 consecutive patients per intensive care unit; patients were monitored until discharge from the unit or for up to 30 days' mechanical ventilation, whichever was first. Units enrolled 967 patients, but 118 were excluded because they had been receiving mechanical ventilation for less than 2 days. The primary outcome measure was the mean number of chest radiographs per patient-day of mechanical ventilation. Analysis was by intention to treat. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00893672.

FINDINGS

11 intensive care units were randomly allocated to use a routine strategy to order chest radiographs in the first treatment period, and 10 units to use an on-demand strategy. Overall, 424 patients had 4607 routine chest radiographs (mean per patient-day of mechanical ventilation 1.09, 95% CI 1.05-1.14), and 425 had 3148 on-demand chest radiographs (mean 0.75, 0.67-0.83), which corresponded to a reduction of 32% (95% CI 25-38) with the on-demand strategy (p<0.0001).

INTERPRETATION

Our results strongly support adoption of an on-demand strategy in preference to a routine strategy to decrease use of chest radiographs in mechanically ventilated patients without a reduction in patients' quality of care or safety.

FUNDING

Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris (Direction Régionale de la Recherche Clinique Ile de France).

Influenza epidemics in the United States, France, and Australia, 1972-1997

Influenza epidemics occur once a year during the winter in temperate areas. Little is known about the similarities between epidemics at different locations. We have analyzed pneumonia and influenza deaths from 1972 to 1997 in the United States, France, and Australia to examine the correlation over space and time between the three countries. We found a high correlation in both areas between France and the United States (correlation in impact, Spearman’s ρ = 0.76, p < 0.001, and test for synchrony in timing of epidemics, p < 0.001). We did not find a similar correlation between the United States and Australia or between France and Australia, when considering a systematic half-year lead or delay of influenza epidemics in Australia as compared with those in the United States or France. These results support a high correlation at the hemisphere level and suggest that the global interhemispheric circulation of epidemics follows an irregular pathway with recurrent changes in the leading hemisphere.

Local and regional spread of chikungunya fever in the Americas

Chikungunya fever (CHIKV), a viral disease transmitted by mosquitoes, is currently affecting several areas in the Caribbean. The vector is found in the Americas from southern Florida to Brazil, and the Caribbean is a highly connected region in terms of population movements. There is therefore a significant risk for the epidemic to quickly expand to a wide area in the Americas. Here, we describe the spread of CHIKV in the first three areas to report cases and between areas in the region. Local transmission of CHIKV in the Caribbean is very effective, the mean number of cases generated by a human case ranging from two to four. There is a strong spatial signature in the regional epidemic, with the risk of transmission between areas estimated to be inversely proportional to the distance rather than driven by air transportation. So far, this simple distance-based model has successfully predicted observed patterns of spread. The spatial structure allows ranking areas according to their risk of invasion. This characterisation may help national and international agencies to optimise resource allocation for monitoring and control and encourage areas with elevated risks to act.

Prognostic factors associated with the survival of patients developing loco-regional recurrences of differentiated thyroid carcinomas

To estimate survival of patients with loco-regional recurrences (LRRs) of differentiated thyroid carcinomas (DTCs) and to identify factors associated with survival after LRRs, we analyzed retrospective data of the 172 patients treated and followed up in our institution from 1958 to 2000 who had developed LRRs (6% of DTC patients). Ultrasound, when used, picked up 95% of the recurrences. Survival was estimated with the method of Kaplan-Meier, and associated prognostic features were studied in univariate and multivariate Cox model-based analyses. Cumulated survival rates 10 yr after LRRs were 49.1, 89.3, and 32.1% for all patients, patients aged less than 45 yr, and older patients, respectively. Multivariate analysis identified three features related to initial tumor (age >/= 45 yr, follicular histology, presence of thyroid capsular effraction), the absence of radioiodine ablation of thyroid remnants after initial surgery (10% of patients did not receive radioiodine), the presence of distant metastases before LRR diagnosis, and two features related to the LRRs (no radioiodine uptake and thyroid bed location) as significantly associated with a reduced survival. Our results underline the seriousness of LRRs of DTCs and could be used to identify patients who should benefit from a closer follow-up and especially reactive therapeutic intervention.

A preliminary estimation of the reproduction ratio for new influenza A(H1N1) from the outbreak in Mexico, March-April 2009

As of 12 May 2009, 5,251 cases of the new influenza A(H1N1) have been officially reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) from 30 countries, with most of the identified cases exported from Mexico where a local epidemic has been going on for the last two months. Sustained human-to-human transmission is necessary to trigger influenza pandemic and estimating the reproduction ratio (average number of secondary cases per primary case) is necessary for forecasting the spread of infection. We use two methods to estimate the reproduction ratio from the epidemic curve in Mexico using three plausible generation intervals (the time between primary and secondary case infection). As expected, the reproduction ratio estimates were highly sensitive to assumptions regarding the generation interval, which remains to be estimated for the current epidemic. Here, we suggest that the reproduction ratio was less than 2.2 - 3.1 in Mexico, depending on the generation interval. Monitoring and updating the reproduction ratio estimate as the epidemic spreads outside Mexico into different settings should remain a priority for assessing the situation and helping to plan public health interventions.

Varicella in non-immune persons: incidence, hospitalization and mortality rates

This study was conducted to estimate the varicella morbidity and mortality rates per age group among the non-immune population in France. Morbidity and mortality data for the years 1990-9 were derived from nationwide databases and surveillance systems. An incidence/prevalence model was designed to quantify the non-immune population per age group. The incidence of varicella in the non-immune population peaks during childhood and again in the 25-35 years age group. For children aged 1-4 years, adults aged 25-34 years and those older than 65 years, the hospitalization rates are respectively 235, 1,438 and 8,154 per 100,000 cases, and the death rates are respectively 7, 104 and 5,345 per million cases. Case fatality or case hospitalization rates were not evenly distributed among adults and increased dramatically with age.

Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) early-stage importation risk to Europe, January 2020

As at 27 January 2020, 42 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases were confirmed outside China. We estimate the risk of case importation to Europe from affected areas in China via air travel. We consider travel restrictions in place, three reported cases in France, one in Germany. Estimated risk in Europe remains high. The United Kingdom, Germany and France are at highest risk. Importation from Beijing and Shanghai would lead to higher and widespread risk for Europe.

Prediction of the spread of influenza epidemics by the method of analogues

This study was designed to examine the performance of a nonparametric forecasting method first developed in meteorology, the "method of analogues," in predicting influenza activity. This method uses vectors selected from historical influenza time series that match current activity. The authors applied it to forecasting the incidences of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) in France and in the country's 21 administrative regions, using a series of data for 938 consecutive weeks of ILI surveillance between 1984 and 2002, and compared the results with those for autoregressive models. For 1- to 10-week-ahead predictions, the correlation coefficients between the observed and forecasted regional incidences ranged from 0.81 to 0.66 for the method of analogues and from 0.73 to -0.09 for the autoregressive models (p < 0.001). Similar results were obtained for national incidence forecasts. From the results of this method, maps of influenza epidemic forecasts can be made in countries in which national and regional data are available.

Association of influenza epidemics with global climate variability

The reasons for the seasonality and annual changes in the impact of influenza epidemics remain poorly understood. We investigated the covariations between a major component of climate, namely the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and indicators of the impact of influenza, as measured by morbidity, excess mortality and viral subtypes collected in France during the period 1971-2002. We show that both the circulating subtype and the magnitude of ENSO are associated with the impact of influenza epidemics. Recognition of this association could lead to better understanding of the mechanisms of emergence of influenza epidemics.