Forecasting China carbon price using an error-corrected secondary decomposition hybrid model integrated fuzzy dispersion entropy and deep learning paradigm

Forecasting China's carbon price accurately can encourage investors and manufacturing industries to take quantitative investments and emission reduction decisions effectively. The inspiration for this paper is developing an error-corrected carbon price forecasting model integrated fuzzy dispersion entropy and deep learning paradigm, named ICEEMDAN-FDE-VMD-PSO-LSTM-EC. Initially, the improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (ICEEMDAN) is used to primary decompose the original carbon price. Subsequently, the fuzzy dispersion entropy (FDE) is conducted to identify the high-complexity signals. Thirdly, the variational mode decomposition (VMD) and deep learning paradigm of particle swarm optimized long short-term memory (PSO-LSTM) models are employed to secondary decompose the high-complexity signals and perform out-of-sample forecasting. Finally, the error-corrected (EC) method is conducted to re-modify and strengthen the above-predicted accuracy. The results conclude that the forecasting performance of ICEEMDAN-type secondary decomposition models is significantly better than the primary decomposition models, the deep learning PSO-LSTM-type models have superiority in forecasting China carbon price, and the EC method for improving the forecasting accuracy has been proved. Noteworthy, the proposed model presents the best forecasting accuracy, with the forecasting errors RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and Pearson's correlation are 0.0877, 0.0407, 0.0009, and 0.9998, respectively. Especially, the long-term forecasting ability for 750 consecutive trading prices is outstanding. Those conclusions contribute to judging the carbon price characteristics and formulating market regulations.

Forecasting Carbon Dioxide Price Using a Time-Varying High-Order Moment Hybrid Model of NAGARCHSK and Gated Recurrent Unit Network

The carbon market is recognized as the most effective means for reducing global carbon dioxide emissions. Effective carbon price forecasting can help the carbon market to solve environmental problems at a lower economic cost. However, the existing studies focus on the carbon premium explanation from the perspective of return and volatility spillover under the framework of the mean-variance low-order moment. Specifically, the time-varying, high-order moment shock of market asymmetry and extreme policies on carbon price have been ignored. The innovation of this paper is constructing a new hybrid model, NAGARCHSK-GRU, that is consistent with the special characteristics of the carbon market. In the proposed model, the NAGARCHSK model is designed to extract the time-varying, high-order moment parameter characteristics of carbon price, and the multilayer GRU model is used to train the obtained time-varying parameter and improve the forecasting accuracy. The results conclude that the NAGARCHSK-GRU model has better accuracy and robustness for forecasting carbon price. Moreover, the long-term forecasting performance has been proved. This conclusion proves the rationality of incorporating the time-varying impact of asymmetric information and extreme factors into the forecasting model, and contributes to a powerful reference for investors to formulate investment strategies and assist a reduction in carbon emissions.

MSTO1 mutations cause mtDNA depletion, manifesting as muscular dystrophy with cerebellar involvement

MSTO1 encodes a cytosolic mitochondrial fusion protein, misato homolog 1 or MSTO1. While the full genotype–phenotype spectrum remains to be explored, pathogenic variants in MSTO1 have recently been reported in a small number of patients presenting with a phenotype of cerebellar ataxia, congenital muscle involvement with histologic findings ranging from myopathic to dystrophic and pigmentary retinopathy. The proposed underlying pathogenic mechanism of MSTO1-related disease is suggestive of impaired mitochondrial fusion secondary to a loss of function of MSTO1. Disorders of mitochondrial fusion and fission have been shown to also lead to mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) depletion, linking them to the mtDNA depletion syndromes, a clinically and genetically diverse class of mitochondrial diseases characterized by a reduction of cellular mtDNA content. However, the consequences of pathogenic variants in MSTO1 on mtDNA maintenance remain poorly understood. We present extensive phenotypic and genetic data from 12 independent families, including 15 new patients harbouring a broad array of bi-allelic MSTO1 pathogenic variants, and we provide functional characterization from seven MSTO1-related disease patient fibroblasts. Bi-allelic loss-of-function variants in MSTO1 manifest clinically with a remarkably consistent phenotype of childhood-onset muscular dystrophy, corticospinal tract dysfunction and early-onset non-progressive cerebellar atrophy. MSTO1 protein was not detectable in the cultured fibroblasts of all seven patients evaluated, suggesting that pathogenic variants result in a loss of protein expression and/or affect protein stability. Consistent with impaired mitochondrial fusion, mitochondrial networks in fibroblasts were found to be fragmented. Furthermore, all fibroblasts were found to have depletion of mtDNA ranging from 30 to 70% along with alterations to mtDNA nucleoids. Our data corroborate the role of MSTO1 as a mitochondrial fusion protein and highlight a previously unrecognized link to mtDNA regulation. As impaired mitochondrial fusion is a recognized cause of mtDNA depletion syndromes, this novel link to mtDNA depletion in patient fibroblasts suggests that MSTO1-deficiency should also be considered a mtDNA depletion syndrome. Thus, we provide mechanistic insight into the disease pathogenesis associated with MSTO1 mutations and further define the clinical spectrum and the natural history of MSTO1-related disease.

The lysine gingipain adhesin domains from Porphyromonas gingivalis interact with erythrocytes and albumin: Structures correlate to function

The crystal structure of the K1 domain, an adhesin module of the lysine gingipain (Kgp) expressed on the cell surface by the periodontopathic anaerobic bacterium, Porphyromonas gingivalis W83, is compared to the previously determined structures of homologues K2 and K3, all three being representative members of the cleaved adhesin domain family. In the structure of K1, the conformation of the most extensive surface loop is unexpectedly perturbed, perhaps by crystal packing, and is displaced from a previously reported arginine-anchored position observed in K2 and K3. This displacement allows the loop to become free to interact with other proteins; the alternate flipped-out loop conformation is a novel mechanism for interacting with target host proteins, other bacteria, or other gingipain protein domains. Further, the K1 adhesin module, like others, is found to be haemolytic in vitro, and so, functions in erythrocyte recognition thereby contributing to the haemolytic function of Kgp. K1 was also observed to selectively bind to haem-albumin with high affinity, suggesting this domain may be involved in gingipain-mediated haem acquisition from haem-albumin. Therefore, it is most likely that all cleaved adhesin domains of Kgp contribute to the pathogenicity of P. gingivalis in more complex ways than simply mediating bacterial adherence.

Propofol suppresses proliferation, invasion and angiogenesis by down-regulating ERK-VEGF/MMP-9 signaling in Eca-109 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma cells

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Propofol (2,6-diisopropylphenol), one of the most commonly used intravenous anaesthetic agents during cancer resection surgery, has been reported to have the ability of influencing the invasion of human cancer cells. However, the mechanisms are not very clear. In this study, we investigated the effects of propofol on the proliferation, invasion and angiogenesis of human Eca-109 cells, and explored the mechanism.

METHODS

The human Eca-109 cells was treated with propofol at the concentrations of 10-100 µmol/L for 72 hours or at the concentration of 100 µmol for 8-72 hours. Cell viability was determined by the MTT assay; the effect of propofol on apoptosis by 5'-triphosphate-biotin nick end labeling (TUNEL) staining. The effect of propofol on angiogenesis was determined by the chicken chorioallantoic membrane (CAM) angiogenesis assay. The effect of propofol on cell invasion using a modified Matrigel Boyden chamber assay. ERK1/2, MMP-9 and VEGF leves was detected by western blotting assay.

RESULTS

In human Eca-109 cells, propofol significantly promoted cell apoptosis and inhibited proliferation in a dose and time-dependent manner. Furthermore, propofol inhibited dose and time-dependent invasion and angiogenesis. Propofol significantly dose and time-dependently down-regulated gene expression and protein production of ERK/pERK, VEGF and MMP-9. The functional effects and MMP-9/VEGF inhibition were shown to be dependent on the ERK/VEGF and ERK/MMP-9 signaling pathways. It was noteworthy that the ERK activator (phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate [PMA]) treatment increased the MMP-9/VEGF levels after propofol treatment, and led to significant increase of proliferation, invasion and angiogenesis.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings indicate that propofol inhibited proliferation, invasion and angiogenesis of human Eca-109 cells in vitro through modulation of ERK-VEGF /MMP-9 signaling. Propofol not only can be an anesthesia agent which reduces pain but plays an important role of inhibiting the migration and angiogenesis of ESCC cells in the therapy of ESCC patients.

Identification of an emulsifier and conditions for preparing stable nanoemulsions containing the antioxidant astaxanthin

In this study, oil-in-water nanoemulsions of astaxanthin were prepared by high-pressure homogenization. The influence of emulsifying conditions including emulsifier type, concentration, passing time, astaxanthin concentration and coantioxidants were optimized. The stabilities of nanoemulsions were measured using zetasizer, FF-SEM, TEM, colorimeter and particle size analyzer. The mean diameter of the dispersed particles containing astaxanthin ranged from 160 to 190 nm. The size distribution was unimodal and extended from 100 to 200 nm. The nanoemulsions prepared with glyceryl citrate/lactate/linoleate/oleate (glyceryl ester) had smaller particle size and narrower size distribution than the emulsion prepared with hydrogenated lecithin. Stable incorporation of astaxanthin in nanoemulsion was performed and checked using HPLC, FF-SEM and TEM. The nanoemulsion was not significantly affected during storage under light and thermal condition for one month indicating that the nanoemulsion had a zeta potential of less than -41 mV, indicating a stable colloid.

[Experimental circumferential tracheal replacement with rib and costal muscle ring in dog.]

BACKGROUND

To evaluate the feasibility of using vascularized rib and costal muscle ring to repair large circumferential defect of thoracic trachea in dog.

METHODS

Eighteen adult mongrel dogs were used in this study. The third rib with adjacent intercostal muscles was engineered to a ring with vascular pedicle , which replaced five or eight rings of trachea.

RESULTS

Eleven of eighteen dogs were alive after operation , and the longest one had survived for 14 months. These dogs were active , although a slight stricture at the newly formed trachea was found. Microscopic examination showed the trachea had good blood supply , and the substitution of pleural epithelium by ciliated epithelium was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Circumferential tracheal replacement with vascularized rib and intercostal muscle ring is easily managed and has less complications. The results suggest that this technique might be clinically used in the future.