[Value of base excess in predicting the prognosis of patients with paraquat poisoning]

Objective: To explore prognostic factors of acute paraquat poisoning (APP) , analyze the correlation between base excess (BE) and plasma concentration of paraquat (C-PQ) and discuss BE level in evalua-tion of prognosis of acute paraquat poisoning patients. Methods: We retrospectively selected 84 APP patients who admitted to Emergency Intensive Care Unit (EICU) of our hospital from 2009.9.1 to 2015.8.31.Clinical data from 84 APP patients were analyzed. BE、C-PQ、time of gastric lavagesince ingestion、time of hemoperfusion since ingestion、severity index of paraquat poisoning (SIPP) 、white blood cell (WBC) 、percentage of neutrophils (N%) 、hemoglobin (HB) 、creatinine (Cr) 、alanine aminotransferase (ALT) 、aspartate aminotransferase (AST) 、partial pressure of oxygen (PaO(2)) 、partial pressure of carbon dioxide (PaCO(2)) and other laboratory parameters were measured. A total of 41 patients in non-survivors died during the 30 days after admission and 43 patients in survivors survived during the 30 days. The factors of prognosis in paraquat poisoining and the role of BE in evalu-ating prognosis was analyzed, as well as the correlation between BE and C-PQ. Results: 1.Logistic regression analyses showed BE、C-PQ、ALT、AST、Cr was of prognostic significance[odds ratio (OR) of BE: 0.511, 95%CI 0.267, 0.978; C-PQ:-=0.999, 95%CI 0.999, 1.000; both P<0.05] ; 2.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) of BE、C-PQ and prognosis were 0.775、0.927 respectively, BE≤-1.7 mmol/L was the best cut-off value, the sensitivity、specificity for predicting were 82.9%、62.8%, the evaluation value was lower to C-PQ>3 273.935 ng/ml (AUC 0.927, 78.0%、95.3%) ; 3.BE negative correlated with C-PQ[-1.100 (-4.100, -0.200) , -5.900(-8.650, -2.500) , both P<0.05]. (r=-0.4, P<0.01). Conclusion: These results suggest that BE may be useful for the prediction of prognosis in PQ poisoning and BE negative correlated with C-PQ.