Modelling of the feed-to-fillet transfer of ethoxyquin and one of its main metabolites, ethoxyquin dimer, to the fillet of farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmon salar L.)

Ethoxyquin (EQ) is an antioxidant supplemented to feed ingredients, mainly fish meal, which is currently under re-evaluation for use in the food production chain. EQ is partly metabolized into several metabolites of which the ethoxyquin dimer (EQDM) accumulates most in the farmed fish fillet. In this study, the feed-to-fillet transfer of dietary EQ and EQDM in Atlantic salmon fillet was investigated, and a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK-) two-compartmental model was developed, based on experimental determined EQ and EQDM uptake, metabolism, and elimination kinetics. The model was verified with an external data-set and used to simulate the long term (>1.5 years) EQ and EQDM feed-to fillet transfer in Atlantic salmon under realistic farming conditions such as the seasonal fluctuations in feed intake, growth, and fillet fat deposition. The model predictions showed that initial EQDM levels in juvenile fish are the driving factor in final levels found in food-producing animals, while for EQ the levels in feed, and seasonal variations were the driving factor for food EQ levels.

Modeling predicted that tobacco control policies targeted at lower educated will reduce the differences in life expectancy

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

To estimate the effects of reducing the prevalence of smoking in lower educated groups on educational differences in life expectancy.

METHODS

A dynamic Markov-type multistate transition model estimated the effects on life expectancy of two scenarios. A "maximum scenario" where educational differences in prevalence of smoking disappear immediately, and a "policy target-scenario" where difference in prevalence of smoking is halved over a 20-year period. The two scenarios were compared to a reference scenario, where smoking prevalences do not change. Five Dutch cohort studies, involving over 67,000 participants aged 20 to 90 years, provided relative mortality risks by educational level, and smoking habits were assessed using national data of more than 120,000 persons.

RESULTS

In the reference scenario, the difference in life expectancy at age 40 between highest and lowest educated groups was 5.1 years for men and 2.7 years for women. In the "maximum scenario" these differences were reduced to 3.6 years for men and 1.7 years for women (reduction approximately 30%), and in the "policy target-scenario" differences were 4.7 years for men and 2.4 years for women (reduction approximately 10%).

CONCLUSION

Theoretically, educational differences in life expectancy would be reduced by 30% at maximum, if variations in smoking prevalence were eliminated completely. In practice, tobacco control policies that are targeted at the lower educated may reduce the differences in life expectancy by approximately 10%.

Limits of applicability for the deterministic approximation of the two-step clonal expansion model

Motivated by a hypothesis published recently, the limits of applicability of the deterministic approximation of the two-step clonal expansion model are investigated. The approximate hazard increases unlimited, while the exact hazard is approaching a constant value. The approximate solution becomes inapplicable for hazards in the order of that constant rate. When the initiation rate is much larger than the cell division rate, the survival rate is small when the approximation becomes inapplicable. The simplicity of the exact solutions suggests using them in all situations.

Community-based study of the incidence of gastrointestinal diseases in The Netherlands

The incidence of gastrointestinal diseases was studied in a community-based study in four regions of The Netherlands. Two grades of severity were distinguished--1: diarrhoea or vomiting and at least 2 additional symptoms within the period of 1 week, and 2: diarrhoea or vomiting and at least 2 additional symptoms occurring on the same day lasting at least 2 days within the period of 1 week. The incidence of gastrointestinal episodes was calculated to be 630 for grade 1 and 180 for grade 2 disease per 1000 person-years, after correction for age and sex. The incidence was higher for women than for men (relative risk 1.25) and lower for those in the 19-64-year-old age group when compared to those younger or older (relative risk 0.75 and 0.40, respectively). Independent of the degree of severity of the symptoms, about 20% of the patients had consulted a general practitioner, about half in person and half by telephone. It is concluded that community studies are essential to assess the real incidence of gastrointestinal diseases in the population.