The cost of aging: Economic growth perspectives for Europe

This study explores the causal relationship between the economy and the elderly population in 15 European countries. The economy was measured by the Per Capita Gross Domestic Product growth rate, while the population aged above 65 as a percentage of the total was considered the elderly population. The data were obtained from a time series dataset published by the World Bank for six decades from 1961 to 2021. The Granger causality test was employed in the study to analyse the impact between the economy and the elderly population. An alternate approach, wavelet coherence, was used to demonstrate the changes to the relationship between the two variables in Europe over the 60 years. The findings from the Granger causality test indicate a unidirectional Granger causality from the economy to the elderly population for Luxembourg, Austria, Denmark, Spain, and Sweden, while vice versa for Greece and the United Kingdom. Furthermore, for Belgium, Finland, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, and Turkey, Granger causality does not exist between the said variables. Moreover, wavelet coherence analysis depicts that for Europe, the elderly population negatively affected the economic growth in the 1960s, and vice versa in the 1980s.

Asian ageing: The relationship between the elderly population and economic growth in the Asian context

The elderly population and economic growth have been a contentious topic among researchers. Regardless of the economic growth rate, the population and its growth have a stimulating influence on economic development. This study aims to explore the relationship between the elderly population and economic growth in 15 Asian countries, based on secondary data gathered from the WDI (World Development Indicators) from 1961 to 2021. This research contributes to filling the empirical gap, capturing the Granger causality concerning the relationship between the elderly population and economic growth in the Asian context in a single study. The empirical findings highlighted a one-way Granger causality from economic growth to the elderly population for India, Japan, Malaysia, and Singapore while vice versa for Bangladesh, China, and Pakistan. Furthermore, for Nepal, there is a two-way Granger causality, while there is no Granger causality for remaining countries. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study has been the first to investigate the relationship between the elderly population and economic growth for Asian nations, using a lengthy data series and a Granger causality test. The main findings will assist the governments, policymakers, and foreign investors in effective decision-making in this regard.

Economy and elderly population, complementary or contradictory: A cross-continental wavelet coherence and cross-country Granger causality study

The aim of this study is to explore the causal relationship between the economy and the elderly population globally as well as continent-wise. This research was designed as a continent-wide study to investigate the differences between several regions simultaneously. The economy was measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita growth rate while the population aged above 65 as a percentage of the total was considered the elderly population. A panel dataset published by the World Bank for a period of six decades from 1961 to 2020 covering 84 countries was used as data for the analysis. Wavelet coherence was the methodology used for the study since it was considered suitable to present causality as well as the causal direction between the two variables for different sections during the six decades. Thereafter, Granger causality was applied for a cross-country analysis to gain further insights on the causality of individual countries over the years. Findings of the study reveal that the causality and its direction have been changing over time for most continents. Negative correlations with the leading variable interchanging with time are evident for the majority of the regions. Nevertheless, results indicate that in a global perspective, elderly population predominantly leads the economic growth with a positive correlation. Research approach allows ascertaining the short-term and medium-term changes that occurred concerning the direction of the relationship throughout the stipulated period of the study, which could not be drawn by any previous study. Even though region-wise literature is available on this topic, global studies for decades have not been conducted yet.

Ageing affecting the Americas?: exploring the growth direction: the relationship between the elderly population and economic growth in the American context

The main aim of this study is to explore the relationship between the elderly population and economic growth in 25 North and South American countries use annual secondary data from 1961 to 2021. Instead of focusing on the conditional mean, this study tests for Granger causality in the entire conditional distribution of the elderly population and economic growth through wavelet coherence analysis. The study findings indicated a unidirectional Granger causality running from per capita gross domestic product (GDP) to the elderly population for Bolivia, Colombia, Guyana, Peru and Puerto Rico and also from elderly population to per capita GDP for Costa Rica, Ecuador and Honduras. However, there is no causal relationship between the elderly population and economic growth for the rest of the countries. Wavelet coherence analysis depicted that economic growth positively led the elderly population in North America during the early 21st century. Furthermore, economic growth had been negatively leading the elderly population in South America throughout the period under consideration. This empirical study shows that policymakers of these economies need to analyse the transformation in the elderly population-economic growth causality robustness throughout the year when devising policies.