Development and validation of a novel model to predict recurrence-free survival and melanoma-specific survival after sentinel lymph node biopsy in patients with melanoma: an international, retrospective, multicentre analysis

BACKGROUND

The introduction of adjuvant systemic treatment for patients with high-risk melanomas necessitates accurate staging of disease. However, inconsistencies in outcomes exist between disease stages as defined by the American Joint Committee on Cancer (8th edition). We aimed to develop a tool to predict patient-specific outcomes in people with melanoma rather than grouping patients according to disease stage.

METHODS

Patients older than 13 years with confirmed primary melanoma who underwent sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) between Oct 29, 1997, and Nov 11, 2013, at four European melanoma centres (based in Berlin, Germany; Amsterdam and Rotterdam, the Netherlands; and Warsaw, Poland) were included in the development cohort. Potential predictors of recurrence-free and melanoma-specific survival assessed were sex, age, presence of ulceration, primary tumour location, histological subtype, Breslow thickness, sentinel node status, number of sentinel nodes removed, maximum diameter of the largest sentinel node metastasis, and Dewar classification. A prognostic model and nomogram were developed to predict 5-year recurrence-free survival on a continuous scale in patients with stage pT1b or higher melanomas. This model was also calibrated to predict melanoma-specific survival. Model performance was assessed by discrimination (area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristics curve [AUC]) and calibration. External validation was done in a cohort of patients with primary melanomas who underwent SLNB between Jan 30, 1997, and Dec 12, 2013, at the Melanoma Institute Australia (Sydney, NSW, Australia).

FINDINGS

The development cohort consisted of 4071 patients, of whom 2075 (51%) were female and 1996 (49%) were male. 889 (22%) had sentinel node-positive disease and 3182 (78%) had sentinel node-negative disease. The validation cohort comprised 4822 patients, of whom 1965 (41%) were female and 2857 (59%) were male. 891 (18%) had sentinel node-positive disease and 3931 (82%) had sentinel node-negative disease. Median follow-up was 4·8 years (IQR 2·3-7·8) in the development cohort and 5·0 years (2·2-8·9) in the validation cohort. In the development cohort, 5-year recurrence-free survival was 73·5% (95% CI 72·0-75·1) and 5-year melanoma-specific survival was 86·5% (85·3-87·8). In the validation cohort, the corresponding estimates were 66·1% (64·6-67·7) and 83·3% (82·0-84·6), respectively. The final model contained six prognostic factors: sentinel node status, Breslow thickness, presence of ulceration, age at SLNB, primary tumour location, and maximum diameter of the largest sentinel node metastasis. In the development cohort, for the model's prediction of recurrence-free survival, the AUC was 0·80 (95% CI 0·78-0·81); for prediction of melanoma-specific survival, the AUC was 0·81 (0·79-0·84). External validation showed good calibration for both outcomes, with AUCs of 0·73 (0·71-0·75) and 0·76 (0·74-0·78), respectively.

INTERPRETATION

Our prediction model and nomogram accurately predicted patient-specific risk probabilities for 5-year recurrence-free and melanoma-specific survival. These tools could have important implications for clinical decision making when considering adjuvant treatments in patients with high-risk melanomas.

FUNDING

Erasmus Medical Centre Cancer Institute.

Prospective randomized controlled trial: early weight bearing after conservative treatment of Weber B ankle fractures (pancake trial)

PURPOSE

Different studies have shown that weightbearing is safe in stable transsyndesmotic, isolated lateral simple ankle fractures. Despite this evidence, AO guidelines still recommend immobilization with above-the-knee cast for 4-6 weeks for these fractures. The objective of this study was to compare the outcomes of mobilization and weightbearing to those of immobilization and non-weightbearing in patients with stable transsyndesmotic, lateral isolated simple ankle fractures.

METHODS

Fifty patients were randomly assigned to permissive weightbearing in a walking boot or non-weightbearing immobilization using a below-the-knee cast. Primary outcome was ankle functionality as scored by the Olerud-Molander Ankle Score (OMAS). Secondary outcomes were radiological displacement of fracture, range of motion (ROM), calf circumference, and RAND 36-item health survey. Patients were in follow-up for 24 months.

RESULTS

Ankle functionality after six and twelve weeks was significantly higher for the intervention group, with respectively 30 points (p = 0.001) and 10 points (p = 0.015) of difference. ROM improved significantly in the intervention group after six weeks. All fractures showed radiological progression of fracture healing. RAND 36-item showed differences in both physical (60.3 vs. 46.3, p = 0.017) and mental (78.5 vs. 58.2, p = 0.034) components in favor of the intervention group. In 16% of patients who initially showed stable fractures on radiographic imaging, joint dislocation was identified on weightbearing radiographs prior to randomization, leading to exclusion.

CONCLUSION

Weightbearing and mobilization using a walking boot may be a safe treatment for patients with stable Weber B fractures.

Clinical evaluation of the clinicopathologic and gene expression profile (CP-GEP) in patients with melanoma eligible for sentinel lymph node biopsy: A multicenter prospective Dutch study

Sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) is recommended for patients with >pT1b cutaneous melanoma, and should be considered and discussed with patients diagnosed with pT1b cutaneous melanoma for the purpose of staging, prognostication and determining eligibility for adjuvant therapy. Previously, the clinicopathologic and gene expression profile (CP-GEP, Merlin Assay®) model was developed to identify patients who can forgo SLNB because of a low risk for sentinel node metastasis. The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinical use and implementation of the CP-GEP model in a prospective multicenter study in the Netherlands. Both test performance and feasibility for clinical implementation were assessed in 260 patients with T1-T4 melanoma. The CP-GEP model demonstrated an overall negative predictive value of 96.7% and positive predictive value of 23.7%, with a potential SLNB reduction rate of 42.2% in patients with T1-T3 melanoma. With a median time of 16 days from initiation to return of test results, there was sufficient time left before the SLNB was performed. Based on these outcomes, the model may support clinical decision-making to identify patients who can forgo SLNB in clinical practice.

First clinical results of 1-year follow-up of the femoral neck system for internal fixation of femoral neck fractures

BACKGROUND

Closed reduction and internal fixation (CRIF) is the preferred treatment to retain the native joint and maintain optimal functionality in femoral neck fractures. Sliding hip screw (SHS) and cannulated hip screws (CHS) are established CRIF options. SHS offer high biomechanical stability, whereas CHS are minimally invasive. These established systems have a 17-21% failure rate. The Femoral neck system (FNS) was recently developed to combine the advantages of both predecessors. The aim of this study was to describe the first clinical experience with this novel implant with special emphasis on the safety and efficacy.

METHODS

During a 1-year period all patients in our level-2 trauma centre with a FNF indicated for CRIF were treated using the FNS and evaluated at 2, 6, 12 weeks, 6 months and 1 year postoperatively using patient and fracture characteristics, surgical notes and radiographic imaging.

RESULTS

Thirty-four patients were included, mean age was 63 years (SD 8), 58.2% was female. Fractures were classified as Pauwels I (n = 10), Pauwels II (n = 15), Pauwels III (n = 9), Garden I (n = 1), Garden II (n = 17), Garden III (n = 12) and Garden IV (n = 4). Eight reoperations were reported after 1-year follow-up; osteosyntheses failed in 6 patients due to avascular necrosis (n = 4) and cut-out (n = 2). In two patients the implant was removed due to inexplicable pain. Age (< 65 years) was related to lower risk for failure. There was a trend for females having more failures.

CONCLUSION

This study indicates that the FNS is a potential safe and effective CRIF modality. Age (< 65 years) is an important factor to keep in mind when selecting patients for CRIF as it is related to lower risk for failure. Future long-term follow-up studies with larger populations should indicate if functional results and risk factors for failure are comparable to SHS or CHS.