Predicting shifting sustainability trade-offs in marine finfish aquaculture under climate change

Defining sustainability goals is a crucial but difficult task because it often involves the quantification of multiple interrelated and sometimes conflicting components. This complexity may be exacerbated by climate change, which will increase environmental vulnerability in aquaculture and potentially compromise the ability to meet the needs of a growing human population. Here, we developed an approach to inform sustainable aquaculture by quantifying spatio-temporal shifts in critical trade-offs between environmental costs and benefits using the time to reach the commercial size as a possible proxy of economic implications of aquaculture under climate change. Our results indicate that optimizing aquaculture practices by minimizing impact (this study considers as impact a benthic carbon deposition ≥ 1 g C m^-2  day^-1 ) will become increasingly difficult under climate change. Moreover, an increasing temperature will produce a poleward shift in sustainability trade-offs. These findings suggest that future sustainable management strategies and plans will need to account for the effects of climate change across scales. Overall, our results highlight the importance of integrating environmental factors in order to sustainably manage critical natural resources under shifting climatic conditions.

An R package for simulating growth and organic wastage in aquaculture farms in response to environmental conditions and husbandry practices

A new R software package, RAC, is presented. RAC allows to simulate the rearing cycle of 4 species, finfish and shellfish, highly important in terms of production in the Mediterranean Sea. The package works both at the scale of the individual and of the farmed population. Mathematical models included in RAC were all validated in previous works, and account for growth and metabolism, based on input data characterizing the forcing functions-water temperature, and food quality/quantity. The package provides a demo dataset of forcings for each species, as well as a typical set of husbandry parameters for Mediterranean conditions. The present work illustrates RAC main features, and its current capabilities/limitations. Three test cases are presented as a proof of concept of RAC applicability, and to demonstrate its potential for integrating different open products nowadays provided by remote sensing and operational oceanography.

The seasonal distribution of dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphorous in the lagoon of Venice: a numerical analysis

This paper investigates the seasonal evolution of the spatial distributions of dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus, in relation to the estimation of the N and P loads, which were obtained in the framework of the DRAIN project. Such investigation is carried out by using a 3D reaction-diffusion model which has been calibrated against salinity data and then used for obtaining the most likely scenario of the spatial and seasonal distribution of DIN and DIP. The consequences of different management policies are also discussed, in relation to the current Italian legislation, which sets quality standards for both DIN and DIP in the lagoon of Venice.

Linking food web functioning and habitat diversity for an ecosystem based management: a Mediterranean lagoon case-study

We propose a modelling approach relating the functioning of a transitional ecosystem with the spatial extension of its habitats. A test case is presented for the lagoon of Venice, discussing the results in the context of the application of current EU directives. The effects on food web functioning due to changes related to manageable and unmanageable drivers were investigated. The modelling procedure involved the use of steady-state food web models and network analysis, respectively applied to estimate the fluxes of energy associated with trophic interactions, and to compute indices of food web functioning. On the long term (hundred years) temporal scale, the model indicated that the expected loss of salt marshes will produce further changes at the system level, with a lagoon showing a decrease in the energy processing efficiency. On the short term scale, simulation results indicated that fishery management accompanied by seagrass restoration measures would produce a slight transition towards a more healthy system, with higher energy cycling, and maintaining a good balance between processing efficiency and resilience. Scenarios presented suggest that the effectiveness of short term management strategies can be better evaluated when contextualized in the long term trends of evolution of a system. We also remark the need for further studying the relationship between habitat diversity and indicators of food web functioning.

Global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a food-web bioaccumulation model

A global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis (UA/SA) of a state-of-the-art, food-web bioaccumulation model was carried out. We used an efficient screening analysis technique to identify the subset of the most relevant input factors among the whole set of 227 model parameters. A quantitative UA/SA was then applied to this subset to rank the relevance of the parameters and to partition the variance of the model output among them by means of a nonlinear regression of the outcomes of 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. The concentrations of four representative persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in two representative species of the coastal marine food web of the Lagoon of Venice (Italy) were taken as model outputs. The screening analysis showed that the ranking was remarkably different in relation to the species and chemical being considered. The subsequent Monte Carlo-based quantitative analysis pointed out that the relationships among some of the parameters and the model outputs were nonlinear. The nonlinear regression showed that the fraction of output variance accounted for by each parameter was strongly dependent on the range of the octanol-water partition coefficient (K(OW)) values being considered. For the less hydrophobic chemicals, the main sources of model uncertainty were the parameters related to the respiratory bioaccumulation, whereas for the more hydrophobic ones, K(OW) and the other parameters related to the dietary uptake explained the largest fractions of the variance of the chemical concentrations in the organisms. The analysis highlighted that efforts are still needed for reducing uncertainty of model parameters to get reliable results from the application of food web bioaccumulation models.

How to cope in heterogeneous coastal environments: Spatio-temporally endogenous circadian rhythm of valve gaping by mussels

Transitional coastal zones are subject to high degrees of temporal fluctuation in environmental conditions, with these patterns varying in space. Gaining an in depth understanding of how sessile organisms cope with and respond to such environmental changes at multiple scales is needed to i) advance fundamental knowledge, ii) predict how organisms may react to stressors and iii) support the management of halieutic resources in transitional coastal areas. We addressed this question using mussels (Mytilus galloprovincialis) as model system. Valve-gaping sensor were deployed at multiple sites within the southern Venice Lagoon over a period of 6 months, to investigate the existence of periodicity in valve-gaping and its relationship with environmental variables, such as temperature and chlorophyll-a. Gaping behaviour was found to have periodic rhythms, of ~12 h and ~ 24 h, which were most pronounced in the inner part of lagoon part and were strongest during summer months. In autumn, the dual periodicity became weaker and mostly the 12 h remained. Gaping was closely linked with tide, but the relationship in terms of phasing varied upon location. Surprisingly, no clear direct relationships were found with chlorophyll-a, but food delivery may be mediated by tide itself. The results highlight the heterogeneity of behaviour and the endogenic nature of circadian rhythms in space and time. These findings have important implications for management of transitional areas where tidal alteration may have impacts on key behaviours, and emphasize the importance of characterizing their rhythms before using these as stress indicator. Moreover, the described tidal relationships should be included in growth models of bivalves in these systems.

Climate change impacts on marine water quality: The case study of the Northern Adriatic sea

Climate change is posing additional pressures on coastal ecosystems due to variations in water biogeochemical and physico-chemical parameters (e.g., pH, salinity) leading to aquatic ecosystem degradation. With the main aim of analyzing the potential impacts of climate change on marine water quality, a Regional Risk Assessment methodology was developed and applied to coastal marine waters of the North Adriatic. It integrates the outputs of regional biogeochemical and physico-chemical models considering future climate change scenarios (i.e., years 2070 and 2100) with site-specific environmental and socio-economic indicators. Results showed that salinity and temperature will be the main drivers of changes, together with macronutrients, especially in the area of the Po' river delta. The final outputs are exposure, susceptibility and risk maps supporting the communication of the potential consequences of climate change on water quality to decision makers and stakeholders and provide a basis for the definition of adaptation and management strategies.

A stratified compartmental model for the transmission of Sparicotyle chrysophrii (Platyhelminthes: Monogenea) in gilthead seabream (Sparus aurata) fish farms†

The rapid development of intensive fish farming has been associated with the spreading of infectious diseases, pathogens and parasites. One such parasite is Sparicotyle chrysophrii (Platyhelminthes: Monogenea), which commonly infects cultured gilthead seabream (Sparus aurata)-a vital species in Mediterranean aquaculture. The parasite attaches to fish gills and can cause epizootics in sea cages with relevant consequences for fish health and associated economic losses for fish farmers. In this study, a novel stratified compartmental epidemiological model of S. chrysophrii transmission was developed and analysed. The model accounts for the temporal progression of the number of juvenile and adult parasites attached to each fish, as well as the abundance of eggs and oncomiracidia. We applied the model to data collected in a seabream farm, where the fish population and the number of adult parasites attached to fish gills were closely monitored in six different cages for 10 months. The model successfully replicated the temporal dynamics of the distribution of the parasite abundance within fish hosts and simulated the effects of environmental factors, such as water temperature, on the transmission dynamics. The findings highlight the potential of modelling tools for farming management, aiding in the prevention and control of S. chrysophrii infections in Mediterranean aquaculture.

Spatially distributed ecological risk for fish of a coastal food web exposed to dioxins

The ecological risk posed by 2,3,7,8-polychlorodibenzo-p-dioxins and furans (PCDD/Fs) and dioxin-like polychlorobiphenyl (PCB) congeners to five edible fish species of the aquatic food web of Venice Lagoon, Italy, was estimated by applying a state-of the-art kinetic bioaccumulation model. Site-specific data were used to define a representative food web. The experimental data set for model validation and application included PCB and PCDD/F congener concentrations in sediments, in water, and in five organisms (both invertebrates and fish). The spatial distribution of risk was evaluated by dividing the lagoon into six homogeneous areas, and for each area, sediment, water, and organism dioxins concentrations were calculated. The bioaccumulation model was calibrated for both nonmetabolizing and metabolizing congeners, the metabolic elimination rates of which were estimated. The model validation showed an acceptable bioaccumulation estimation, evaluated using the model bias parameter. The calibrated model was applied to the six areas of the lagoon to estimate the fish predicted exposure concentration as 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin toxicity equivalents from sediment concentration. Internal no-effect concentrations were calculated for each fish species from literature data. Risk was estimated by applying the hazard quotient (HQ) approach, obtaining the ecological risk for each fish species on the basis of 90 and 99% protection levels, in each of the six lagoon areas. The sediment dioxins concentration does not pose a significant risk to the selected fish species at the 90% protection target (HQ<1), whereas risk is significant (HQ>1) at the 99% protection target. Risk results were higher near the Porto Marghera industrial district, Italy, and in lagoon zones characterized by a low water-exchange rate and freshwater basin inputs.

Multidisciplinary long-term survey of Manila clam grown in farming sites subjected to different environmental conditions

In recent years recurrent bivalve mass mortalities considerably increased around the world, causing the collapse of natural and farmed populations. Venice Lagoon has historically represented one of the major production areas of the Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum in Europe. However, in the last 20 years a 75 % decrease in the annual production has been experienced. While climate change and anthropogenic interventions may have played a key role in natural and farmed stocks reductions, no studies investigated at multiple levels the environmental stressors affecting farmed Manila clam to date. In this work we carried out a long-term monitoring campaign on Manila clam reared in four farming sites located at different distances from the southern Venice Lagoon inlet, integrating (meta)genomic approaches (i.e. RNA-seq; microbiota characterization), biometric measurements and chemical-physical parameters. Our study allowed to characterize the molecular mechanisms adopted by this species to cope with the different environmental conditions characterizing farming sites and to propose hypotheses to explain mortality events observed in recent years. Among the most important findings, the disruption of clam's immune response, the spread of Vibrio spp., and the up-regulation of molecular pathways involved in xenobiotic metabolism suggested major environmental stressors affecting clams farmed in sites placed close to Chioggia's inlet, where highest mortality was also observed. Overall, our study provides knowledge-based tools for managing Manila clam farming on-growing areas. In addition, the collected data is a snapshot of the time immediately before the commissioning of MoSE, a system of mobile barriers aimed at protecting Venice from high tides, and will represent a baseline for future studies on the effects of MoSE on clams farming and more in general on the ecology of the Venice Lagoon.

Identifying knowledge gaps for successful restorative aquaculture of Ostrea edulis: a bibliometric analysis

Background: Active restoration is necessary to enhance the recovery of Ostrea edulis reefs, which contribute to many ecosystem services. Restoration can be integrated within aquaculture practices, bringing positive environmental changes while maximising space utilisation. The restoration project MAREA (MAtchmaking Restoration Ecology and Aquaculture) aims to bring back  O. edulis in the North-West Adriatic addressing the feasibility of its cultivation. Both successful restoration and sustainable aquaculture require a thorough understanding of the ecological needs, as the requirements of both activities need to be harmonized. Therefore, one of the preliminary activities before embarking on the pilot was the completion of a thorough literature review to identify research directions and gaps required for 'restorative aquaculture', aiming to gather the most up to date O . edulis knowledge on a global and local scale.  Methods: Internet (Web of Science, Scopus, Google scholar) and physical resources (libraries) were searched for all available global and local knowledge on O . edulis. Bibliometrix was used to identify the main research topics using keywords, titles, and abstracts analyses. Studies were then manually screened and summarised to extract knowledge specific to restoration and aquaculture. Results: While restoration studies are recent, evidence for the loss of this species and potential causes (and solutions) have been discussed since the end of the 19 th century. While diseases were a leading cause for reef loss, substratum limitation appears to be one of the leading limiting factors for both restoration and aquaculture of O . edulis, and was already mentioned in the early texts that were found. Conclusions: The review highlighted that restoration success and aquaculture feasibility depend upon the crucial stage of settlement. The project 'MAREA' will therefore increase its focus on this stage, both in terms of timing, location, and materials for settlement plates placement.

Fault detection in a real-time monitoring network for water quality in the lagoon of Venice (Italy)

In the context of monitoring water quality in natural ecosystems in real time, on-line data quality control is a very important issue for effective system surveillance and for optimizing maintenance of the monitoring network. This paper presents some applications of recursive state-parameter estimation algorithms to real-time detection of signal drift in high-frequency observations. Two continuous-discrete recursive estimation schemes, namely the Extended Kalman Filter and the Recursive Prediction Error algorithm, were applied to assuring the quality of the dissolved oxygen (DO) time series, as obtained from the Lagoon of Venice (Italy) during August 2002, through the real-time monitoring network of the Magistrato alle Acque (the Venice Water Authority). Results demonstrate the effectiveness of the methodology in early detection of a probable drift in the DO signal. Comparison of these results with those obtained from the application of a related recursive scheme (a Dynamic Linear Regression procedure) suggests the strong benefits of approaching the problem of on-line data quality control with several (not merely a single) independent such estimation methods.

Coupling habitat-specific temperature scenarios with tolerance landscape to predict the impacts of climate change on farmed bivalves

Due to climate change, heatwaves are likely to become more frequent, prolonged and characterized by higher peak values, compared with climatological averages. However, the thermal tolerance of organisms depends on the actual exposure, which can be modulated by environmental context and microhabitat characteristics. This study investigated the frequency of occurrence of mass mortality events in the next decades for two species of farmed bivalves, the mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis and the clam Ruditapes philippinarum, in a shallow coastal lagoon, characterised by marked diurnal oscillations of water temperature. The effect of heatwaves was estimated by means of tolerance landscape models, which predict the occurrence of 50% mortality based on the exposure intensity and duration. Scenarios of water temperature up to the year 2100 were modelled by combining two mechanistic components, namely: 1) monthly mean water temperatures, simulated using a hydrodynamic model including the heat budget; 2) daily oscillations, estimated from the harmonic analysis of a twenty year-long site-specific time series of water temperature. Scenarios of mean daily sediment temperature were estimated by means of a cross-correlation model, using as input the water temperature one: the model parameters were estimated based on a comprehensive set of site-specific water and sediment temperature observations. The results indicate that for both species the risk of mass mortality rapidly increases starting from the 2060s. Furthermore, the daily patterns of water temperature seemed to be relevant, as overnight it falls below the predicted mortality thresholds for a few hours. These findings suggest that further studies should address: 1) the improvement of tolerance landscape models, in order to take into account the integrated effect of repeated non-lethal stress events on mortality rate; 2) the prediction of environmental temperature in specific habitat, by means of both process-based and data driven models.