A randomized double-blind, placebo-controlled trial to evaluate the safety and efficacy of live Bifidobacterium longum CECT 7347 (ES1) and heat-treated Bifidobacterium longum CECT 7347 (HT-ES1) in participants with diarrhea-predominant irritable bowel syndrome

To determine the efficacy of the probiotic Bifidobacterium longum CECT 7347 (ES1) and postbiotic heat-treated Bifidobacterium longum CECT 7347 (HT-ES1) in improving symptom severity in adults with diarrhea-predominant irritable bowel syndrome (IBS-D), a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial with 200 participants split into three groups was carried out. Two capsules of either ES1, HT-ES1 or placebo were administered orally, once daily, for 84 days (12 weeks). The primary outcome was change in total IBS-Symptom Severity Scale (IBS-SSS) score from baseline, compared to placebo. Secondary outcome measures were stool consistency, quality of life, abdominal pain severity and anxiety scores. Safety parameters and adverse events were also monitored. The change in IBS-SSS scores from baseline compared to placebo, reached significance in the ES1 and HT-ES1 group, on Days 28, 56 and 84. The decrease in mean IBS-SSS score from baseline to Day 84 was: ES1 (-173.70 [±75.60]) vs placebo (-60.44 [±65.5]) (p < .0001) and HT-ES1 (-177.60 [±79.32]) vs placebo (-60.44 [±65.5]) (p < .0001). Secondary outcomes included changes in IBS-QoL, APS-NRS, stool consistency and STAI-S and STAI-T scores, with changes from baseline to Day 84 being significant in ES1 and HT-ES1 groups, compared to the placebo group. Both ES1 and HT-ES1 were effective in reducing IBS-D symptom severity, as evaluated by measures such as IBS-SSS, IBS-QoL, APS-NRS, stool consistency, and STAI, in comparison to the placebo. These results are both statistically significant and clinically meaningful, representing, to the best of the authors' knowledge, the first positive results observed for either a probiotic or postbiotic from the same strain, in this particular population.

Fall armyworm from a maize multi-peril pest risk perspective

We assembled 3,175 geo-tagged occurrences of fall armyworm worldwide and used that data in conjunction with information about the physiological requirements of the pest to spatially assess its global climate suitability. Our analysis indicates that almost the entire African maize crop is grown in areas with climates that support seasonal infestations of the insect, while almost 92% of the maize area supports year-round growth of the pest. In contrast, rich-country maize production largely occurs in temperate areas where only 2.3% of the area may allow the pest to survive year-round, although still subject to worrisome seasonal risks. This means the African maize crop is especially susceptible to damaging infestation from fall armyworm, on par with the risk exposure to this pest faced by maize producers throughout Latin America. We show that the maize grown in Africa is also especially vulnerable to infestations from a host of other crop pests. Our multi-peril pest risk study reveals that over 95% of the African maize area deemed climate suitable for fall armyworm, can also support year-round survival of at least three or more pests. The spatial concurrence of climatically suitable locations for these pests raises the production risk for farmers well above the risks posed from fall armyworm alone. Starkly, over half (52.5%) of the African maize area deemed suitable for fall armyworm is also at risk from a further nine pests, while over a third (38.1%) of the area is susceptible to an additional 10 pests. This constitutes an exceptionally risky production environment for African maize producers, with substantive and complex implications for developing and implementing crop breeding, biological, chemical and other crop management strategies to help mitigate these multi-peril risks.

Protocol of trans-Tasman feasibility randomised controlled trial of the Younger Women's Wellness After Breast Cancer (YWWACP) lifestyle intervention

BACKGROUND

Younger women (defined as those < 50 years who are likely pre-menopausal at time of diagnosis) with breast cancer often experience persistent treatment-related side effects that adversely affect their physical and psychological wellbeing. The Women's Wellness After Cancer Program (WWACP) was adapted and piloted in Australia to address these outcomes in younger women. The aims of this feasibility study are to determine (1) the potential to translate the Younger WWACP (YWWACP) intervention to a broader population base in Aotearoa/New Zealand and Australia, and (2) the potential for success of a larger, international, phase ΙΙΙ, randomised controlled trial.

METHODS

This bi-national, randomised, single-blinded controlled trial involves two main study sites in Aotearoa/New Zealand (Kōwhai study) and Australia (EMERALD study). Young women aged 18 to 50 years who completed intensive treatment (surgery, chemotherapy, and/or radiotherapy) for breast cancer in the previous 24 months are eligible. The potential to translate the YWWACP to women in these two populations will be assessed according to several feasibility outcomes. These include examining intervention accessibility, acceptability and uptake; intervention sustainability and adherence; the prevalence components of the intervention in the control group; intervention efficacy; participants' perception of measurement burden; the effectiveness of planned recruitment strategies; and trial methods and procedures. The studies collectively aim to enrol 60 participants in the intervention group and 60 participants in the control group (total = 120 participants).

DISCUSSION

Ethical approval has been received from the Southern Health and Disability Ethics Committee (Kōwhai ref: 19/STH/215), and UnitingCare Human Research Ethics Committee (EMERALD ref: 202103). This study will provide important data on the feasibility of the refined YWWACP in the trans-Tasman context. This study will account for and harmonise cross-country differences to ensure the success of a proposed international grant application for a phase ΙΙΙ randomised controlled trial of this program to improve outcomes in younger women living with breast cancer.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR): Kōwhai ACTRN12620000260921 , registered on 27 February 2020. EMERALD ACTRN12621000447853 , registered on 19 April 2021.

Institutional and policy bottlenecks to IPM

This paper summarises institutional and policy bottlenecks to IPM in Africa. Agricultural policy in Africa generally prioritises production and productivity above environmental sustainability, so the use of synthetic pesticides for controlling pests is encouraged. Funding for research in IPM is limited, and extension systems struggle to provide the level of farmer support that adoption of IPM often needs. Improved research and extension policies could facilitate uptake of IPM. Public and private food-safety standards can incentivise adoption, but currently this is mainly in production for export. Pesticide and other input regulatory systems unintentionally constrain adoption of IPM, through expensive registration procedures, weak compliance monitoring and limited regional harmonisation. IPM must be seen as a key element of food-system transformation.

POS0473 INFLAMMATORY-PRIMED MUSCLE CELLS INFLUENCE MACROPHAGE CYTOKINE SECRETION IN A MYOSITIS CONTEXT

Background

Sporadic inclusion body myositis (sIBM) is a progressive disease causing muscle weakness and mobility issues. It is characterised by inflammatory and degenerative features; however there is no clear single cause for sIBM symptoms. Inflammatory factors include macrophage infiltration into muscle fibres and presence of high levels of inflammatory cytokines such as IFNγ [1]. Degenerative features within muscle fibres include sarcoplasmic inclusions containing aggregated proteins. p62 and TAR DNA-binding protein 43 (TDP-43) are two proteins that are found in inclusion bodies, and these have been suggested as sensitive diagnostic markers differentiating sIBM from other inflammatory myopathies [2]. Currently there is limited understanding of the pathogenic mechanisms underlying sIBM, and no effective treatments.

Objectives

The aim of this study is to investigate the interplay between inflammatory and degenerative features of sIBM with a focus on macrophage secreted factors, p62 and TDP-43 sarcoplasmic aggregation. Firstly, to examine whether skeletal muscle cells that have previously been exposed to an inflammatory environment can in turn influence the inflammatory response of macrophages. Secondly, by investigating if macrophage-secreted inflammatory factors influence p62 and TDP-43 sarcoplasmic aggregates. This will give insight into whether macrophage inflammation precludes skeletal muscle degeneration in an sIBM context or vice versa.

Methods

Primary human myogenic cells from healthy individuals were differentiated into myotubes for 7 days, with further 48-hour 20 ng/mL IL-1β and 750 ng/mL IFNγ incubation to form inflammatory-primed myotubes. Conditioned media (CM) was collected from washed myotubes after 24 hours. 6x105 THP-1 cells/mL were differentiated to unprimed M(PMA) macrophages with 150 nM phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate (PMA) for 24 hours, followed by 72-hour PMA-free rest. Inflammatory-primed M(IFNγLPS) THP-1 were generated from M(PMA) with 48-hour IFNγ and lipopolysaccharide (LPS) incubation. 20 % CM from myotubes was added to M(PMA) or M(IFNγLPS) THP-1 for 24 hours, before washing and measuring IL-6 and TNFα release from macrophages via ELISA. 20 % CM from M(PMA) or M(IFNγLPS) was added to myotubes for 48 hours before quantifying TDP-43 and p62 aggregates with image analysis.

Results

M(IFNγLPS) THP-1 secreted higher levels of IL-6 and TNFα than M(PMA). M(PMA) or M(IFNγLPS) exposed to conditioned media from control or inflammatory-primed myotubes had no detectable TNFα secretion. For both M(PMA) and M(IFNγLPS), addition of inflammatory-primed myotube CM caused higher IL-6 secretion than adding control myotube CM. Incubating unprimed myotubes with M(PMA) or M(IFNγLPS) CM had no effect on the presence, size, or frequency of p62 or TDP-43 sarcoplasmic aggregates compared to control conditions.

Conclusion

Inflammatory priming myotubes with IL-1β and IFNγ caused a response in macrophages that increased IL-6 production. However, CM from inflammatory-primed myotubes did not influence TNFα secretion from macrophages compared to control myotube CM. IL-6 has pleiotropic effects on skeletal muscle [3], promoting both hypertrophy and atrophy under different conditions. Therefore the effects of macrophage IL-6 upregulation on muscle is unclear. Culturing myotubes in unprimed or inflammatory-primed macrophage conditioned media did not influence p62 or TDP-43 sarcoplasmic aggregation. This suggests macrophage secretory factors are not responsible for the sIBM degenerative features of p62 and TDP-43 aggregation.

References

[1]M. Rigolet et al., Distinct interferon signatures stratify inflammatory and dysimmune myopathies. RMD Open5, e000811 (2019).

[2]O. Dubourg et al., Diagnostic value of markers of muscle degeneration in sporadic inclusion body myositis. Acta myol30, 103-108 (2011).

[3]P. Muñoz-Cánoves et al., Interleukin-6 myokine signaling in skeletal muscle: a double-edged sword? Febs j280, 4131-4148 (2013).

Disclosure of Interests

None declared.

Prioritization of invasive alien species with the potential to threaten agriculture and biodiversity in Kenya through horizon scanning

Invasive alien species (IAS) rank among the most significant drivers of species extinction and ecosystem degradation resulting in significant impacts on socio-economic development. The recent exponential spread of IAS in most of Africa is attributed to poor border biosecurity due to porous borders that have failed to prevent initial introductions. In addition, countries lack adequate information about potential invasions and have limited capacity to reduce the risk of invasions. Horizon scanning is an approach that prioritises the risks of potential IAS through rapid assessments. A group of 28 subject matter experts used an adapted methodology to assess 1700 potential IAS on a 5-point scale for the likelihood of entry and establishment, potential socio-economic impact, and impact on biodiversity. The individual scores were combined to rank the species according to their overall potential risk for the country. Confidence in individual and overall scores was recorded on a 3-point scale. This resulted in a priority list of 120 potential IAS (70 arthropods, 9 nematodes, 15 bacteria, 19 fungi/chromist, 1 viroid, and 6 viruses). Options for risk mitigation such as full pest risk analysis and detection surveys were suggested for prioritised species while species for which no immediate action was suggested, were added to the plant health risk register and a recommendation was made to regularly monitor the change in risk. By prioritising risks, horizon scanning guides resource allocation to interventions that are most likely to reduce risk and is very useful to National Plant Protection Organisations and other relevant stakeholders.

Comparing, evaluating and combining statistical species distribution models and CLIMEX to forecast the distributions of emerging crop pests

BACKGROUND

Forecasting the spread of emerging pests is widely requested by pest management agencies in order to prioritise and target efforts. Two widely used approaches are statistical Species Distribution Models (SDMs) and CLIMEX, which uses ecophysiological parameters. Each have strengths and weaknesses. SDMs can incorporate almost any environmental condition and their accuracy can be formally evaluated to inform managers. However, accuracy is affected by data availability and can be limited for emerging pests, and SDMs usually predict year-round distributions, not seasonal outbreaks. CLIMEX can formally incorporate expert ecophysiological knowledge and predicts seasonal outbreaks. However, the methods for formal evaluation are limited and rarely applied. We argue that both approaches can be informative and complementary, but we need tools to integrate and evaluate their accuracy. Here we develop such an approach, and test it by forecasting the potential global range of the tomato pest Tuta absoluta.

RESULTS

The accuracy of previously developed CLIMEX and new statistical SDMs were comparable on average, but the best statistical SDM techniques and environmental data substantially outperformed CLIMEX. The ensembled approach changes expectations of T. absoluta's spread. The pest's environmental tolerances and potential range in Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, Central Asia and Australia will be larger than previous estimates.

CONCLUSION

We recommend that CLIMEX be considered one of a suite of SDM techniques and thus evaluated formally. CLIMEX and statistical SDMs should be compared and ensembled if possible. We provide code that can be used to do so when employing the biomod suite of SDM techniques. © 2021 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Assessing the Potential of Inoculative Field Releases of Telenomus remus to Control Spodoptera frugiperda in Ghana

In response to the threat caused by the fall armyworm to African maize farmers, we conducted a series of field release studies with the egg parasitoid Telenomus remus in Ghana. Three releases of ≈15,000 individuals each were conducted in maize plots of 0.5 ha each in the major and minor rainy seasons of 2020, and compared to no-release control plots as well as to farmer-managed plots with chemical pest control. No egg mass parasitism was observed directly before the first field release. Egg mass parasitism reached 33% in the T. remus release plot in the major rainy season, while 72-100% of egg masses were parasitized in the minor rainy season, during which pest densities were much lower. However, no significant difference in egg mass parasitism was found among the T. remus release plots, the no-release control plots and the farmer-managed plots. Similarly, no significant decrease in larval numbers or plant damage was found in the T. remus release fields compared to the no-release plots, while lower leaf and tassel damage was observed in farmer-managed plots. Larval parasitism due to other parasitoids reached 18-42% in the major rainy season but was significantly lower in the minor rainy season, with no significant differences among treatments. We did not observe significant differences in cob damage or yield among the three treatments. However, the lack of any significant differences between the release and no-release plots, which may be attributed to parasitoid dispersal during the five weeks of observation, would require further studies to confirm. Interestingly, a single application of Emamectin benzoate did not significantly affect the parasitism rates of T. remus and, thus, merits further investigation in the context of developing IPM strategies against FAW.

Regional and seasonal activity predictions for fall armyworm in Australia

Since 2016, the fall armyworm (FAW), Spodoptera frugiperda, has undergone a significant range expansion from its native range in the Americas, to continental Africa, Asia, and in February 2020, mainland Australia. The large dispersal potential of FAW adults, wide host range of immature feeding stages, and unique environmental conditions in its invasive range creates large uncertainties in the expected impact on Australian plant production industries. Here, using a spatial model of population growth and spread potential informed by existing biological and climatic data, we simulate seasonal population activity potential of FAW, with a focus on Australia's grain production regions. Our results show that, in Australia, the large spread potential of FAW will allow it to exploit temporarily favourable conditions for population growth across highly variable climatic conditions. It is estimated that FAW populations would be present in a wide range of grain growing regions at certain times of year, but importantly, the expected seasonal activity will vary markedly between regions and years depending on climatic conditions. The window of activity for FAW will be longer for growing regions further north, with some regions possessing conditions conducive to year-round population survival. Seasonal migrations from this permanent range into southern regions, where large areas of annual grain crops are grown annually, are predicted to commence from October, i.e. spring, with populations subsequently building up into summer. The early stage of the FAW incursion into Australia means our predictions of seasonal activity potential will need to be refined as more Australian-specific information is accumulated. This study has contributed to our early understanding of FAW movement and population dynamics in Australia. Importantly, the models established here provide a useful framework that will be available to other countries should FAW invade in the future. To increase the robustness of our model, field sampling to identify conditions under which population growth occurs, and the location of source populations for migration events is required. This will enable accurate forecasting and early warning to farmers, which should improve pest monitoring and control programs of FAW.

Why don't smallholder farmers in Kenya use more biopesticides?

BACKGROUND

Although Kenya has a relatively high number of registered biopesticide products, little is known about biopesticide use by smallholders. This paper documents farmers' current use and perception of chemical pesticides and biopesticides, their willingness to pay for biopesticides, and the key challenges to biopesticide uptake.

RESULTS

A survey found that chemical pesticides are used widely by smallholders despite awareness of the risks to human health and the environment. Almost half of respondents showed awareness of biopesticides, but current use in the survey localities was low (10%). Key reasons for the low use of biopesticides by smallholders in this study are: perceptions of effectiveness, primarily speed of action and spectrum of activity, availability and affordability. Smallholders who used biopesticides cited effectiveness, recommendation by advisory services and perception of safety as key reasons for their choice. Although farmers viewed both pesticides and biopesticides as costly, they invested in the former due to their perceived effectiveness. Average willingness to pay, above current chemical pesticide expenditures per cropping season was 9.6% (US$5.7). Willingness to pay differed significantly between counties, and was higher among farmers with more education or greater awareness of the health risks associated with pesticide use.

CONCLUSION

This study confirms the low use of biopesticide products in the survey areas, alongside high use of conventional chemical pesticides. In order to promote greater uptake of biopesticides, addressing farmers' awareness and their perceptions of effectiveness is important, as well as increasing the knowledge of those providing advice and ensuring registered products are available locally at competitive prices. © 2020 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Publisher Correction: Science diplomacy for plant health

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Features reported after exposure to automatic dishwashing rinse aids

Introduction:

Automatic dishwashing rinse aids are drying aids which contain non-ionic surfactants, usually ethoxylated alcohols, typically at concentrations of ≤30%.

Objective:

To assess the reported toxicity of rinse aids.

Methods:

Telephone enquiries to the UK National Poisons Information Service were analysed from January 2008 to June 2019.

Results:

Ingestion: Ingestion was involved in 976 cases and produced gastrointestinal features, coughing and central nervous system depression, particularly in young children. In those in whom the amount ingested was known, the majority (56%) of children <18 years and of adults (57%) ingested <50 mL of rinse aid. Although moderate or severe exposures (Poisoning Severity Score (PSS) ≥ 2) were uncommon, they occurred significantly ( p < 0.0008) more often in adults (9.0%) than in children (1.8%); however, three of the four adults with PSS ≥ 2 co-ingested other substances. Eye exposure: Ocular exposure was reported in 35 cases, of whom 29 developed features. Eye irritation ( n = 10, 28.6%) and eye pain ( n = 10, 28.6%) were reported most commonly, and three patients (8.6%) developed corneal abrasions (PSS 2). Dermal exposure: Thirty-four patients were exposed dermally, and six (17.6%) reported features, including rash, numbness, pruritus and burns (PSS 1).

Conclusions:

Overall, clinical features developed in 47% of patients exposed to rinse aids, but more severe features (PSS ≥ 2) were rare (<3%) following exposure by any route.

Parasitoid Complex of Fall Armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, in Ghana and Benin

The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, a moth originating from the American continent, has recently invaded most African countries, where it is seriously threatening food security as a pest of cereals. The current management methods rely heavily on the use of synthetic insecticides but there is a need for more sustainable control methods, including biological control. Surveys were conducted in two West African countries, Ghana and Benin, to determine the native parasitoid complex and assess parasitism rates of S. frugiperda. Samples of S. frugiperda eggs and larvae were collected in maize fields located in 56 and 90 localities of Ghana and Benin, respectively, from July 2018 to July 2019. Ten species were found parasitizing the pest, including two egg parasitoids, one egg–larval, five larval and two larval–pupal parasitoids. The two most abundant parasitoids in both countries were two Braconidae: the egg-larval parasitoid Chelonus bifoveolatus and the larval parasitoid Coccygidum luteum. Parasitism rates were determined in three Ghanaian regions and averages varied from 0% to 75% between sites and from 5% to 38% between regions. These data provide an important baseline for the development of various biological control options. The two egg parasitoids, Telenomus remus and Trichogramma sp. can be used in augmentative biological control and investigations should be conducted to assess how cultural practices can enhance the action of the main parasitoids, C. luteum and Ch. bifoveolatus, in the field. Understanding the parasitoid complex of S. frugiperda in Africa is also necessary before any development of classical biological controls involving the introduction of parasitoids from the Americas.

Toxicity of traditional and soluble film automatic dishwashing tablets

INTRODUCTION

Detergents used in automatic dishwashing machines are of two main types: traditional tablets that require removal from an external wrapper and newer soluble film tablets.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the toxicity of automatic dishwashing tablets.

METHODS

Telephone enquiries to the UK National Poisons Information Service were analysed for the period January 2008 to June 2019.

RESULTS

Ingestion: Ingestion was involved in 798 traditional tablet exposures and 725 soluble film exposures. Clinical features (Poisoning Severity Score ≥ 1) developed in 22.2% of patients ingesting traditional tablets and in 28.8% ingesting soluble film tablets; moderate or severe toxicity was rare (<0.5% for both traditional and soluble film tablets). Children (≤5 years) significantly (p < 0.0001) more often developed features following ingestion of soluble film (n = 193, 28.2%) than traditional tablets (n = 134, 19.1%). In contrast, adults more often developed features following ingestion of traditional than soluble film tablets, although this difference was not statistically significant. Eye exposure: The eye was involved in only 26 of 1539 exposures; 17 of 26 exposures resulted in ocular features. The most commonly reported features were conjunctivitis, eye pain and blurred vision, although one patient sustained a corneal abrasion and developed loss of vision. Skin exposure: Thirty-four of 1539 exposures involved the skin but only 3 developed dermal features which were minor.

CONCLUSIONS

Children (≤5 years) significantly more often developed features following ingestion of soluble film than traditional tablets, although the likelihood of a child developing features was relatively low (<30%) and features that did develop were almost always mild. In contrast, adults more often developed features following the ingestion of traditional than soluble film tablets. Overall, the eye was involved in only 1.7% of exposures and only one patient sustained a corneal abrasion.

Evidence of Leaf Consumption Rate Decrease in Fall Armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, Larvae Parasitized by Coccygidium luteum

Biological control is one of the best options for the sustainable management of the invasive maize pest Spodoptera frugiperda in Africa. However, there is limited knowledge of the efficacy of native natural enemies of S. frugiperda and their potential use in integrated pest management. The endoparasitoid wasp Coccygidium luteum is one of the natural enemies of S. frugiperda in Africa. This study assessed, under laboratory conditions, the effect of C. luteum on the leaf consumption rate of its host. Fifty first instar S. frugiperda larvae were exposed to C. luteum for oviposition and the maize leaf consumption rate of parasitized larvae was assessed and compared to 50 unparasitized larvae from the same cohort. Coccygidium luteum completed a generation, from egg to adult emergence, in 16.7 days. The leaf consumption rate of parasitized S. frugiperda larvae declined gradually compared to unparasitized larvae and the overall consumption reduction by parasitized S. frugiperda larvae was 89%. Our findings show that C. luteum could reduce damage caused by S. frugiperda to maize farms but, prior to its use in biological control programmes, further studies are needed to assess potential parasitism rates in field conditions and develop a cost-effective mass production system.

Farmer perception of fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiderda J.E. Smith) and farm-level management practices in Zambia

BACKGROUND

This paper documents farmer perceptions and management practices for fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiderda J.E. Smith), providing a baseline for the development of sustainable pest management strategies.

RESULTS

91% of farmers correctly identified fall armyworm, and reported it as the most important maize pest during 2016/2017 cropping season, affecting nearly half of cultivated area. Estimated maize yield loss during the season, attributed to fall armyworm was 28%. A majority of farmers (60%) used pesticides for fall armyworm control, along with other cultural/physical practices - hand picking and crushing egg masses/caterpillars (36%), and application of ash/sand in the funnel (19%). Farmers used various pesticide active ingredients, and protective measures were inadequate; >50% of farmers did not use any protective measures while spraying. Significantly more male than female farmers used pesticides (P = 0.05), and the reverse was true for cultural practices. Significant maize yield differences (P = 0.001) were observed by gender, attributed to differences in utilization of production inputs/practices. At least 77% of farmers received and shared agricultural advice, which can be optimized to spread information on fall armyworm management options.

CONCLUSION

Increased use of pesticides to manage fall armyworm poses health and environmental risks, besides the high cost for farmers and governments. Research into cultural and indigenous practices used by farmers will offer opportunities for alternative and sustainable management practices. Research efforts should pay attention to gender differences in access to resources and inputs. Tackling fall armyworm at the farm level, and averting yield losses will require integrated messaging addressing other production risks. © 2019 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Next generation sequencing of PD-L1 for predicting response to immune checkpoint inhibitors

BACKGROUND

PD-L1 immunohistochemistry (IHC) has been traditionally used for predicting clinical responses to immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). However, there are at least 4 different assays and antibodies used for PD-L1 IHC, each developed with a different ICI. We set to test if next generation RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) is a robust method to determine PD-L1 mRNA expression levels and furthermore, efficacy of predicting response to ICIs as compared to routinely used, standardized IHC procedures.

METHODS

A total of 209 cancer patients treated on-label by FDA-approved ICIs, with evaluable responses were assessed for PD-L1 expression by RNA-seq and IHC, based on tumor proportion score (TPS) and immune cell staining (ICS). A subset of serially diluted cases was evaluated for RNA-seq assay performance across a broad range of PD-L1 expression levels.

RESULTS

Assessment of PD-L1 mRNA levels by RNA-seq demonstrated robust linearity across high and low expression ranges. PD-L1 mRNA levels assessed by RNA-seq and IHC (TPS and ICS) were highly correlated (p < 2e-16). Sub-analyses showed sustained correlation when IHC results were classified as high or low by clinically accepted cut-offs (p < 0.01), and results did not differ by tumor type or anti-PD-L1 antibody used. Overall, a combined positive PD-L1 result (≥1% IHC TPS and high PD-L1 expression by RNA-Seq) was associated with a 2-to-5-fold higher overall response rate (ORR) compared to a double negative result. Standard assessments of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) showed that a PD-L1 positive assessment for melanoma samples by RNA-seq had the lowest sensitivity (25%) but the highest PPV (72.7%). Among the three tumor types analyzed in this study, the only non-overlapping confidence interval for predicting response was for "RNA-seq low vs high" in melanoma.

CONCLUSIONS

Measurement of PD-L1 mRNA expression by RNA-seq is comparable to PD-L1 expression by IHC both analytically and clinically in predicting ICI response. RNA-seq has the added advantages of being amenable to standardization and avoidance of interpretation bias. PD-L1 by RNA-seq needs to be validated in future prospective ICI clinical studies across multiple histologies.

Forecasting the global extent of invasion of the cereal pest Spodoptera frugiperda, the fall armyworm

Fall armyworm, Spodopterafrugiperda, is a crop pest native to the Americas, which has invaded and spread throughout sub-Saharan Africa within two years. Recent estimates of 20–50% maize yield loss in Africa suggest severe impact on livelihoods. Fall armyworm is still infilling its potential range in Africa and could spread to other continents. In order to understand fall armyworm’s year-round, global, potential distribution, we used evidence of the effects of temperature and precipitation on fall armyworm life-history, combined with data on native and African distributions to construct Species Distribution Models (SDMs). We also investigated the strength of trade and transportation pathways that could carry fall armyworm beyond Africa. Up till now, fall armyworm has only invaded areas that have a climate similar to the native distribution, validating the use of climatic SDMs. The strongest climatic limits on fall armyworm’s year-round distribution are the coldest annual temperature and the amount of rain in the wet season. Much of sub-Saharan Africa can host year-round fall armyworm populations, but the likelihoods of colonising North Africa and seasonal migrations into Europe are hard to predict. South and Southeast Asia and Australia have climate conditions that would permit fall armyworm to invade. Current trade and transportation routes reveal Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand face high threat of fall armyworm invasions originating from Africa.

Pest risk assessment of Spodoptera frugiperda for the European Union

EFSA was asked for a partial risk assessment of Spodoptera frugiperda for the territory of the EU focussing on the main pathways for entry, factors affecting establishment, risk reduction options and pest management. As a polyphagous pest, five commodity pathways were examined in detail. Aggregating across these and other pathways, we estimate that tens of thousands to over a million individual larvae could enter the EU annually on host commodities. Instigating risk reduction options on sweetcorn, a principal host, reduces entry on that pathway 100‐fold. However, sweetcorn imports are a small proportion of all S. frugiperda host imports, several of which are already regulated and further regulation is estimated to reduce the median number entering over all pathways by approximately 10%. Low temperatures limit the area for establishment but small areas of Spain, Italy and Greece can provide climatic conditions suitable for establishment. If infested imported commodities are distributed across the EU in proportion to consumer population, a few hundreds to a few thousands of individuals would reach NUTS 2 regions within which suitable conditions for establishment exist. Although S. frugiperda is a known migrant, entry directly into the EU from extant populations in sub‐Saharan Africa is judged not feasible. However, if S. frugiperda were to establish in North Africa, in the range of thousands to over two million adults could seasonally migrate into the southern EU. Entry into suitable NUTS2 areas via migration will be greater than via commercial trade but is contingent on the establishment of S. frugiperda in North Africa. The likelihood of entry of the pest via natural dispersal could only be mitigated via control of the pest in Africa. If S. frugiperda were to arrive and become a pest of maize in the EU, Integrated Pest Management (IPM) or broad spectrum insecticides currently used against existing pests could be applied.

Predicting response to checkpoint inhibitors in melanoma beyond PD-L1 and mutational burden

BACKGROUND

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have changed the clinical management of melanoma. However, not all patients respond, and current biomarkers including PD-L1 and mutational burden show incomplete predictive performance. The clinical validity and utility of complex biomarkers have not been studied in melanoma.

METHODS

Cutaneous metastatic melanoma patients at eight institutions were evaluated for PD-L1 expression, CD8+ T-cell infiltration pattern, mutational burden, and 394 immune transcript expression. PD-L1 IHC and mutational burden were assessed for association with overall survival (OS) in 94 patients treated prior to ICI approval by the FDA (historical-controls), and in 137 patients treated with ICIs. Unsupervised analysis revealed distinct immune-clusters with separate response rates. This comprehensive immune profiling data were then integrated to generate a continuous Response Score (RS) based upon response criteria (RECIST v.1.1). RS was developed using a single institution training cohort (n = 48) and subsequently tested in a separate eight institution validation cohort (n = 29) to mimic a real-world clinical scenario.

RESULTS

PD-L1 positivity ≥1% correlated with response and OS in ICI-treated patients, but demonstrated limited predictive performance. High mutational burden was associated with response in ICI-treated patients, but not with OS. Comprehensive immune profiling using RS demonstrated higher sensitivity (72.2%) compared to PD-L1 IHC (34.25%) and tumor mutational burden (32.5%), but with similar specificity.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, the response score derived from comprehensive immune profiling in a limited melanoma cohort showed improved predictive performance as compared to PD-L1 IHC and tumor mutational burden.

The Comparative Strengths of Orthopaedic Staples Versus a 2.7 mm T Plate in the Stabilisation of Distal Radial Osteotomies

Distal radial osteotomies were performed in 20 limbs from ten cadaver specimens. Ten bones were stabilised with two × 1.6 mm surgical bone staples and ten were stabilised with a 2.7 mm T platea. The radii were removed and the osteotomies were biomechanically tested in torsion initially, and then to failure in bending. Statistically significant differences were not found between the two types of repair in torsional stiffness, bending stiffness, deflection to failure in bending, or load to failure in bending. Orthopaedic staples are a simple, cost-effective alternative to bone plates for stabilisation of distal radial osteotomies.

Bilateral distal radial osteotomies were created in dog cadavers and then repaired with either two bone staples or a 2.7 mm T plate. The limbs were then tested in vitro to compare the relative strengths of the repairs in torsion and bending. Statistically significant differences were not found between the two methods of stabilisation.

Evaluation of a metal acrylic repair product as a clamp for an external fixator

Mechanical testing was performed to evaluate an acrylic steel repair paste when used in the construction of external fixators. Individual pin-bar-acrylic constructs were compared with those made from Kirschner-Ehmer (KE) clamps or polymethylmethacrylate. The constructs were subjected to cantilever bending forces, pin-pullout tests and cantilever bending after undergoing cyclical fatigue. Forty mm segments of acrylic were significantly stronger than medium ESF clamps. Twenty-five mm segments of acrylic were of equivalent strength to clamps. Ten mm segments failed under physiological loads expected from dogs greater than 20 kg and were less likely to provide adequate pin coverage to protect against pin pull-put. The placement of a wire loop to secure the pin-bar intersects made application of the acrylic easier but did not alter stiffness. There was not any significant variation between different operators in the strength of their constructs nor tolerance of their constructs to pin pullout. Cyclical loading forces were applied to acrylic-pinbar units without significant loss of strength, and acrylic and polymethylmethacrylate units did not show any difference in stiffness after being subjected to cyclical fatigue. The acrylic steel repair paste is a handkneadable, fast setting, inexpensive and readily available acrylic for use in the construction of external fixators. It allows more flexibility in frame design than a clamp and on the basis of mechanical testing offers a very stiff and secure substitute for KE clamps or polymethylmethacrylate.

Combining uretdione and disulfide reversibly degradable polyurethanes: route to alternating block copolymers

Uretdione (temperature and catalyst controlled) and disulphide (REDOX controlled) functionalised polyurethanes have been described and the reversibility of these bonds tested.

Prospects for observing and localizing gravitational-wave transients with Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA

We present possible observing scenarios for the Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA gravitational-wave detectors over the next decade, with the intention of providing information to the astronomy community to facilitate planning for multi-messenger astronomy with gravitational waves. We estimate the sensitivity of the network to transient gravitational-wave signals, and study the capability of the network to determine the sky location of the source. We report our findings for gravitational-wave transients, with particular focus on gravitational-wave signals from the inspiral of binary neutron star systems, which are the most promising targets for multi-messenger astronomy. The ability to localize the sources of the detected signals depends on the geographical distribution of the detectors and their relative sensitivity, and [Formula: see text] credible regions can be as large as thousands of square degrees when only two sensitive detectors are operational. Determining the sky position of a significant fraction of detected signals to areas of 5-[Formula: see text] requires at least three detectors of sensitivity within a factor of [Formula: see text] of each other and with a broad frequency bandwidth. When all detectors, including KAGRA and the third LIGO detector in India, reach design sensitivity, a significant fraction of gravitational-wave signals will be localized to a few square degrees by gravitational-wave observations alone.

A kinetic Monte Carlo approach to study fluid transport in pore networks

The mechanism of fluid migration in porous networks continues to attract great interest. Darcy's law (phenomenological continuum theory), which is often used to describe macroscopically fluid flow through a porous material, is thought to fail in nano-channels. Transport through heterogeneous and anisotropic systems, characterized by a broad distribution of pores, occurs via a contribution of different transport mechanisms, all of which need to be accounted for. The situation is likely more complicated when immiscible fluid mixtures are present. To generalize the study of fluid transport through a porous network, we developed a stochastic kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model. In our lattice model, the pore network is represented as a set of connected finite volumes (voxels), and transport is simulated as a random walk of molecules, which "hop" from voxel to voxel. We simulated fluid transport along an effectively 1D pore and we compared the results to those expected by solving analytically the diffusion equation. The KMC model was then implemented to quantify the transport of methane through hydrated micropores, in which case atomistic molecular dynamic simulation results were reproduced. The model was then used to study flow through pore networks, where it was able to quantify the effect of the pore length and the effect of the network's connectivity. The results are consistent with experiments but also provide additional physical insights. Extension of the model will be useful to better understand fluid transport in shale rocks.

Upper Limits on the Stochastic Gravitational-Wave Background from Advanced LIGO's First Observing Run

A wide variety of astrophysical and cosmological sources are expected to contribute to a stochastic gravitational-wave background. Following the observations of GW150914 and GW151226, the rate and mass of coalescing binary black holes appear to be greater than many previous expectations. As a result, the stochastic background from unresolved compact binary coalescences is expected to be particularly loud. We perform a search for the isotropic stochastic gravitational-wave background using data from Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory's (aLIGO) first observing run. The data display no evidence of a stochastic gravitational-wave signal. We constrain the dimensionless energy density of gravitational waves to be Ω_{0}<1.7×10^{-7} with 95% confidence, assuming a flat energy density spectrum in the most sensitive part of the LIGO band (20-86 Hz). This is a factor of ∼33 times more sensitive than previous measurements. We also constrain arbitrary power-law spectra. Finally, we investigate the implications of this search for the background of binary black holes using an astrophysical model for the background.

Directional Limits on Persistent Gravitational Waves from Advanced LIGO's First Observing Run

We employ gravitational-wave radiometry to map the stochastic gravitational wave background expected from a variety of contributing mechanisms and test the assumption of isotropy using data from the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory's (aLIGO) first observing run. We also search for persistent gravitational waves from point sources with only minimal assumptions over the 20-1726 Hz frequency band. Finding no evidence of gravitational waves from either point sources or a stochastic background, we set limits at 90% confidence. For broadband point sources, we report upper limits on the gravitational wave energy flux per unit frequency in the range F_{α,Θ}(f)<(0.1-56)×10^{-8}    erg cm^{-2} s^{-1} Hz^{-1}(f/25  Hz)^{α-1} depending on the sky location Θ and the spectral power index α. For extended sources, we report upper limits on the fractional gravitational wave energy density required to close the Universe of Ω(f,Θ)<(0.39-7.6)×10^{-8}  sr^{-1}(f/25  Hz)^{α} depending on Θ and α. Directed searches for narrowband gravitational waves from astrophysically interesting objects (Scorpius X-1, Supernova 1987 A, and the Galactic Center) yield median frequency-dependent limits on strain amplitude of h_{0}<(6.7,5.5,  and  7.0)×10^{-25}, respectively, at the most sensitive detector frequencies between 130-175 Hz. This represents a mean improvement of a factor of 2 across the band compared to previous searches of this kind for these sky locations, considering the different quantities of strain constrained in each case.

A systems science perspective on the capacity for change in public hospitals

Many types of organisation are difficult to change, mainly due to structural, cultural and contextual barriers. Change in public hospitals is arguably even more problematic than in other types of hospitals, due to features such as structural dysfunctionalities and bureaucracy stemming from being publicly-run institutions. The main goals of this commentary are to bring into focus and highlight the "3 + 3 Decision Framework" proposed by Edwards and Saltman. This aims to help guide policymakers and managers implementing productive change in public hospitals. However, while change from the top is popular, there are powerful front-line clinicians, especially doctors, who can act to counterbalance top-down efforts. Front-line clinicians have cultural characteristics and power that allows them to influence or reject managerial decisions. Clinicians in various lower-level roles can also influence other clinicians to resist or ignore management requirements. The context is further complicated by multi-stakeholder agendas, differing goals, and accumulated inertia. The special status of clinicians, along with other system features of public hospitals, should be factored into efforts to realise major system improvements and progressive change.

Protein droplet actuation on superhydrophobic surfaces: a new approach toward anti-biofouling electrowetting systems

Anti-biofouling behaviour of an electrowetting device using off-the-shelf superhydrophobic materials is demonstrated through protein adsorption measurement and protein-laden droplet actuation.

Stepped-wedge cluster randomised controlled trial to assess the effectiveness of an electronic medication management system to reduce medication errors, adverse drug events and average length of stay at two paediatric hospitals: a study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Medication errors are the most frequent cause of preventable harm in hospitals. Medication management in paediatric patients is particularly complex and consequently potential for harms are greater than in adults. Electronic medication management (eMM) systems are heralded as a highly effective intervention to reduce adverse drug events (ADEs), yet internationally evidence of their effectiveness in paediatric populations is limited. This study will assess the effectiveness of an eMM system to reduce medication errors, ADEs and length of stay (LOS). The study will also investigate system impact on clinical work processes.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A stepped-wedge cluster randomised controlled trial (SWCRCT) will measure changes pre-eMM and post-eMM system implementation in prescribing and medication administration error (MAE) rates, potential and actual ADEs, and average LOS. In stage 1, 8 wards within the first paediatric hospital will be randomised to receive the eMM system 1 week apart. In stage 2, the second paediatric hospital will randomise implementation of a modified eMM and outcomes will be assessed. Prescribing errors will be identified through record reviews, and MAEs through direct observation of nurses and record reviews. Actual and potential severity will be assigned. Outcomes will be assessed at the patient-level using mixed models, taking into account correlation of admissions within wards and multiple admissions for the same patient, with adjustment for potential confounders. Interviews and direct observation of clinicians will investigate the effects of the system on workflow. Data from site 1 will be used to develop improvements in the eMM and implemented at site 2, where the SWCRCT design will be repeated (stage 2).

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The research has been approved by the Human Research Ethics Committee of the Sydney Children's Hospitals Network and Macquarie University. Results will be reported through academic journals and seminar and conference presentations.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) 370325.

The Role of Supinator in the Pathogenesis of Chronic Lateral Elbow Pain: A Biomechanical Study

The relative contributions of the forearm extensors to the tensile force at the lateral epicondyle were examined by implanting a force transducer in the common extensor tendon of four soft fixed cadaver elbows and sequentially stretching each muscle arising from the lateral epicondye. Extensor carpi radialis brevis and extensor digitorum communis produced the largest increases while the superficial head of supinator produced a moderate increase in tensile force in the common extensor tendon. Extensor carpi radialis longus and extensor carpi ulnaris had no significant effect.

Radial tunnel pressure was measured using a balloon catheter in a separate study of five cadaver elbows. Radial tunnel pressure increased on moving the wrist from neutral to a flexion–pronation position. This positional rise in pressure was reduced by supinator musculotendinous lengthening (77%) while lengthening of the extensor carpi radialis brevis and extensor digitorum communis had no effect.

This study demonstrates a biomechanical basis for the superficial head of supinator in the aetiology of both lateral epicondylitis and radial tunnel syndrome.

Contrasting patterns of population connectivity between regions in a commercially important mollusc Haliotis rubra: integrating population genetics, genomics and marine LiDAR data

Estimating contemporary genetic structure and population connectivity in marine species is challenging, often compromised by genetic markers that lack adequate sensitivity, and unstructured sampling regimes. We show how these limitations can be overcome via the integration of modern genotyping methods and sampling designs guided by LiDAR and SONAR data sets. Here we explore patterns of gene flow and local genetic structure in a commercially harvested abalone species (Haliotis rubra) from southeastern Australia, where the viability of fishing stocks is believed to be dictated by recruitment from local sources. Using a panel of microsatellite and genomewide SNP markers, we compare allele frequencies across a replicated hierarchical sampling area guided by bathymetric LiDAR imagery. Results indicate high levels of gene flow and no significant genetic structure within or between benthic reef habitats across 1400 km of coastline. These findings differ to those reported for other regions of the fishery indicating that larval supply is likely to be spatially variable, with implications for management and long-term recovery from stock depletion. The study highlights the utility of suitably designed genetic markers and spatially informed sampling strategies for gaining insights into recruitment patterns in benthic marine species, assisting in conservation planning and sustainable management of fisheries.

Characterization of transient noise in Advanced LIGO relevant to gravitational wave signal GW150914

On September 14, 2015, a gravitational wave signal from a coalescing black hole binary system was observed by the Advanced LIGO detectors. This paper describes the transient noise backgrounds used to determine the significance of the event (designated GW150914) and presents the results of investigations into potential correlated or uncorrelated sources of transient noise in the detectors around the time of the event. The detectors were operating nominally at the time of GW150914. We have ruled out environmental influences and non-Gaussian instrument noise at either LIGO detector as the cause of the observed gravitational wave signal.

GW151226: Observation of Gravitational Waves from a 22-Solar-Mass Binary Black Hole Coalescence

We report the observation of a gravitational-wave signal produced by the coalescence of two stellar-mass black holes. The signal, GW151226, was observed by the twin detectors of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) on December 26, 2015 at 03:38:53 UTC. The signal was initially identified within 70 s by an online matched-filter search targeting binary coalescences. Subsequent off-line analyses recovered GW151226 with a network signal-to-noise ratio of 13 and a significance greater than 5σ. The signal persisted in the LIGO frequency band for approximately 1 s, increasing in frequency and amplitude over about 55 cycles from 35 to 450 Hz, and reached a peak gravitational strain of 3.4_{-0.9}^{+0.7}×10^{-22}. The inferred source-frame initial black hole masses are 14.2_{-3.7}^{+8.3}M_{⊙} and 7.5_{-2.3}^{+2.3}M_{⊙}, and the final black hole mass is 20.8_{-1.7}^{+6.1}M_{⊙}. We find that at least one of the component black holes has spin greater than 0.2. This source is located at a luminosity distance of 440_{-190}^{+180}  Mpc corresponding to a redshift of 0.09_{-0.04}^{+0.03}. All uncertainties define a 90% credible interval. This second gravitational-wave observation provides improved constraints on stellar populations and on deviations from general relativity.

Properties of the Binary Black Hole Merger GW150914

On September 14, 2015, the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) detected a gravitational-wave transient (GW150914); we characterize the properties of the source and its parameters. The data around the time of the event were analyzed coherently across the LIGO network using a suite of accurate waveform models that describe gravitational waves from a compact binary system in general relativity. GW150914 was produced by a nearly equal mass binary black hole of masses 36_{-4}^{+5}M_{⊙} and 29_{-4}^{+4}M_{⊙}; for each parameter we report the median value and the range of the 90% credible interval. The dimensionless spin magnitude of the more massive black hole is bound to be <0.7 (at 90% probability). The luminosity distance to the source is 410_{-180}^{+160}  Mpc, corresponding to a redshift 0.09_{-0.04}^{+0.03} assuming standard cosmology. The source location is constrained to an annulus section of 610  deg^{2}, primarily in the southern hemisphere. The binary merges into a black hole of mass 62_{-4}^{+4}M_{⊙} and spin 0.67_{-0.07}^{+0.05}. This black hole is significantly more massive than any other inferred from electromagnetic observations in the stellar-mass regime.

GW150914: First results from the search for binary black hole coalescence with Advanced LIGO

On September 14, 2015 at 09:50:45 UTC the two detectors of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) simultaneously observed the binary black hole merger GW150914. We report the results of a matched-filter search using relativistic models of compact-object binaries that recovered GW150914 as the most significant event during the coincident observations between the two LIGO detectors from September 12 to October 20, 2015. GW150914 was observed with a matched filter signal-to-noise ratio of 24 and a false alarm rate estimated to be less than 1 event per 203000 years, equivalent to a significance greater than 5.1 σ.